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How would you say Maloney and Wood compare based on mechanics seeing as they are the only 2 starting LH pitching prospects the Reds have right now?
The Hotsheet said to look for Maloney in the Cincinnati rotation by the end of the year. Do you really see that happening? He’d have to beat out Homer Bailey, Daryl Thompson, Matt Belisle, and Josh Fogg.
They are very different pitchers John. Maloney is a tall, thicker guy (not fat, just a big guy). Wood is a shorter guy who is quite skinny. I haven’t seen Wood pitch since he was in Dayton, so mechanically I can’t say a whole lot on where he is at right now.
Kyle,
Yeah, I can see it happening. Even if its in September, he will likely get a chance to show what he has.
Doug, if you were to redo your top-40 Reds prospects today (obviously Bruce, Cueto and Votto would have to come off) where would Maloney and Thompson fit in?
What would be your current top-5?
Bruce would technically still be eligible, until he gets 150 AB’s in the majors. Though I will leave him off for this.
I would go like this:
1. Homer Bailey
2. Drew Stubbs
3. Devin Mesoraco
4. Todd Frazier
5. Travis Wood
6. Daryl Thompson
7. Kyle Lotzkar
8. Chris Valaika
9. Matt Maloney
10. Juan Duran
Thats where I would go as of today for a Top 10.
Where’s Kyle Lotzkar?
He is in extended Spring Training right now. He isn’t fully healthy right now so expect to see him later in the year.
I like Valaika, but im surprised you put him in the top ten. I thought he was projected to be a utility player. I would have had Juan Francisco in the top ten. I know he has problems with his BB/K ratio, but hes hitting .300 in a pitcher’s league as a 20 year old and has monster power. I was kind of surprised to see Roenicke and Soto left out.
I have gotten some real strong scouting reports on Valaika this season. They were enough for me mixed with his numbers to put him up there. Roenicke and Soto were the next two on my list, followed by Francisco. His walk rate downright scares me. I just can’t see him getting to the big leagues without making big improvements in his walk department and he hasn’t shown the ability to make those improvements yet.
Walk rates usually improve with age. Most 20 year olds dont have a real good grasp of the strike zone anyways. He has more upside in my opinion than Valaika. Speaking of which, whats going on with his batting average in AA?
Walk rates do usually improve with age, but Francisco literally needs it to improve 3 or 4 times over just to be average. His upside is very high, but his floor is pretty low.
As for Valaika in AA, he has been fairly unlucky to this point. His walk/strikeout/line drive rates are all nearly the same as they were in Sarasota, but his BABIP is very low at .254 when it should be around .330 or so. if he just continues what he is doing, his average will be fine as things normalize.
Somehow Francisco drew two walks tonight, granted one was intentional.
I just noticed that Jim Brower was traded to the Cubs, do you think that the Reds will promote Manuel or Roenicke to take his place?
I figured it would go Roenicke up, Geronimo up and from there on, not sure who comes up for Sarasota and Dayton.
I like Roenicke but it’s hard to place relievers in a Top 10 prospect list. He definitely has value though.
Doug, you must really like Mesoraco. I would have thought you would place Frazier above him since Fraizer seems like he would make an impact much sooner.
Also, you’ve mentioned that whomever the Reds draft this year would be at the top of the prospect list. I still think that Bailey’s upside is very, very high. He just needs to mentally connect the dots.
Is Duran actually going to get some time in at GCL this year?
I think whoever the Reds draft is likely to be at the top of the list when the year ends. Bailey only has to throw 4.2 innings to no longer qualify as a ‘prospect’ and I fully expect him to get those innings this year.
Mesoraco…. there is a piece I just finished up on him that will be up tomorrow morning. I am pretty impressed with him. He has skills. I just like his upside quite a bit more than Frazier.
From what I understand Rick… it sounds entirely possible.
Could we see Duran in the MWL next year? The Giants have left their teenage phenom in low A ball all year.
Its possible, but I am not sure how likely it is.