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Here’s a fun little game we can play before the draft starts. I think the top 7 picks will be:
Rays – Tim Beckham
Bucs – Pedro Alvarez
Royals – Eric Hosmer
Orioles – Brian Matusz
Giants – Buster Posey
Marlins – Kyle Skipworth
Reds – Gordon Beckham
I made my list up before I read this post, and had the Reds taking Brett Lawrie at 7. But given what Mayo says, I’ll slot Gordon Gecko, er, Beckham at 7.
What’s everyone else got?
The other thing that the MLB could do is allow trading draft picks. Can’t sign a guy at #1? Then trade down to a team that can. I haven’t ever heard a good argument why they don’t allow it. That would double the risk for a team to pay 12 million to sign a guy, have him suck AND lose a handful of lower picks by moving up to get him. Doubling the risk then should reduce the price these guys can ask for.
Oh and put the draft on a weekend, I’ve got work I need to be doing.
Funny you bring that up Kevin, apparently there are talks about MLB allowing it to happen sometime soon.
Anyways, I will go with T Beckham, Alvarez, Hosmer, Crow, Matusz, Skipworth and Beckham to us.
Is there something I’m missing on this Posey kid or is he just a possible high pick because good catchers are so hard to find these days?
Seems like you have it. He projects as a Jason Kendall type of player, a fringe all star, but because of his position he was in the running for #1 overall.
I’m surprised Posey is ranked so high. It seems like he’s a player without a position. He’s an ok catcher, an ok pitcher, and a mediocre SS. That seems too risky for a top pick, but then again I’m not a baseball draft expert.
Posey supposedly is a strong defensive catcher in the tools department and he practices well at the position. Those things lead scouts to think he can be a good defensive catcher at the next level with some coaching. I am with you though that Posey seems to be ranked fairly high given what his current package holds.
Seems to me the Reds need a “shortstop of the future”. Frazier and Valaika likely aren’t going to be there long and Janish is a “no hit” guy from all indications. With luck, a college SS could be here in 2 or 3 years.
I honestly think Gordon Beckham could start in the major leagues by mid 2010 if put on the right track. His bat is absolutely legit and defensively he can handle himself at SS fine. While I don’t think this is a draft for need thing, it certainly gets the job done by likely taking the BPA.
I could see the Giants throwing a curveball our way by taking Smoak at 5. That could send Posey or Matusz our way.
Do we want another catcher? I know they’ll draft a few throughout the draft, but at #1 again?
How does Mesoraco compare to Posey?
Kyle,
The Giants have a little say in who we take, but I think the Orioles will make the biggest decision to decide where we go with things.
I like mesarco a ton better than Posey even mesarcos draft report from last year looks better than Posey’s
If he doesn’t back off his 12 million demands, who has the moula to sign Posey? Mets at 18?
I can’t believe the Mets got an additional first round pick for losing a 41 year old pitcher. That doesn’t seem right.
We did get an extra pick for losing Scott Schoenweis…. so I won’t complain too much.
Josh,
I am with you on Posey/Mesoraco.
Disregarding the ridiculous sum of money it takes to sign him, if the Reds draft Posey where do they send him? He can’t go to Dayton with Mesoraco there. Billings is likely too easy for a college bat like him. I personally think it’s a waste of development time sending an advanced college bat to the Pioneer league. Which means you’d have to send him to Sarasota. And that’s probably too high. At some point he’s gotta leap over Mesoraco, and I’m not sure how you do that without stunting one of the two of them. I have no qualms with drafting two catchers in consecutive 1st rounds, its the complication of drafting a HS before a NCAA.
And of course there’s 12 million reasons not to want Posey.
I do like that he has a 4.0 GPA this year.
NO POSEY!! $12 million reasons not to. Too many question marks. Give me G Beckham.
Here’s the 12,000,001st reason not to:
The Enquirer will surely have a headline that reads: “Reds get pocket full of Posey.”
Of course the alternative headline may be:
“Reds bend it with Beckham”
Kevin,
That does present an interesting problem, but I would send Posey to High A no matter what team I drafted him for. Any polished college bat should start AT LEAST in high A.
No way I’d take Posey for that money. The Reds need a player they can sign. I’m all for taking the best player, but if you take the best player and he doesn’t sign with you what do you have? Its not like Posey is so talented that you can’t pass up on him. Russell Martin with less bat is a guy you don’t have to have. Getting a potential SS of the future (Beckham) or a starter who could be ready in the next year or two (Matusz or Crow) seems like a better option to me.
“Reds have nothing to Crow about”
Drafting two 1st round catchers in a row seems a little crazy. Maybe take Posey and see if you can mold him into a better SS or even 3B if his arm is that good. He sounds like he’d be a great utility guy.
My issue with Posey is that he just doesn’t project to hit for enough power to play anywhere but catcher and SS and those are two places he needs a lot of work at.
That presents a problem with Beckham too then. As Frazier is at Sarasota and Valaika is at Chattanooga. Do you move Valaika to 3B and start Beckham at AA?
Hey I’m all for challenging the college bats too. I’ve said it before, I don’t think you learn much about a college bat prospect til he reaches AA.
Frazier hasn’t played SS in Sarasota so thats not really an issue. Valaika isn’t an issue either yet because he is well ahead of Beckham right now, so he isn’t an issue either. Zach Cozart does bring a problem to the table as the Reds view him as a SS (and he is, but will he ever hit?) and he should start in Sarasota next year.
Can Valaika handle the SS position at the upper levels or is he a guy who projects to move to the corner or perhaps even 2B if something were to happen to Phillips?
I’m not saying the Reds ought to sign Posey or any other top-rated catcher, but there is a recent, successful precedent. The Braves took Mc Cann and Saltalamacchia in back to back years I think. I don’t remember if they were first rounders.
Bryan,
Valaika seems to be a Keppinger type of defensive SS. He won’t likely kill you, but isn’t going to be average or better.
pw,
newest rumor is that Posey could go to the Giants at #5.
Anybody else gonna venture to guess the top 7 picks before this shindig starts?
After seeing the 4th update about Posey to SF, I’m liking my 7 more and more.
Doug- How high would Juan Duran go if he was in this draft?
My seven would be Tim Beckham, Pedro Alvarez, Eric Hosmer, Brian Matusz, Justin Smoak, Kyle Skipworth, and Gordon Beckham. i had to pick Smoak to be different.
Jack,
its tough to say given his age…. but given his bonus paid, somewhere in the top 10 seems about right. If he was worth 2 million on the open market he is probably worth roughly that in the draft.
Doug, do you think that the Reds would break slot in the third round for a premium talent? Do you think that the Reds toe the line slot wise in hopes of hosting an all star game some day?
I don’t think thats an issue really. I think the Reds will take the BPA that they can sign.
Memo to ESPN. Screen the phone calls to the high schoolers before you connect them to Karl Ravech.
I like Tim Melvill or how ever you spell his name and wouldent mind if the reds took him for cheap.
The Reds could nab a really good high school pitcher in the third round if they are willing to pony up.
Doug, I wish you would have been correct about Beckham. A left handed hitting 1st baseman is a disappointment. We could use a little balance with RH.