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Shaun Cumberland (right) has split his time in center and in right, but he has the tools to play center field at the next level. He was acquired in the deal with Jorge Cantu late last year from Tampa Bay. He has always been a toolsy type guy but this is the first year he has really put it together. The biggest improvement in his game has been his ability to increase his walk rate dramatically while cutting down his strikeout rate. Last year he walked in less than 8% of his plate appearances while striking out over 17% of the time. This year he is walking in 13.4% of his plate appearances and striking out just 14.4% of the time. He is hitting for average and for power (.174 isolated power – SLG minus Average).
Danny Dorn (left), like Cumberland spent about a month of last year in Chattanooga and is returning this year. He got off to a slow start in April, with an OPS under .700 before heading to the DL with 18 stitches in his leg after a sliding catch led to cutting his leg open. Since his return he has done what he has done since being drafted in 2006, hit. The left fielder is hitting .284/.373/.532 for a .905 OPS since his return from the DL. He does struggle against lefties though, which could lead to him being part of a platoon in the majors.
Sean Henry (right) has spent his time in left field for most of the year, splitting time with Dorn and at the DH spot. He comes in a bit undersized at 5′9″ and 180 pounds but the guy gets the most out of what he has and does a good job at it. He began the season off in Sarasota but made his way to Chattanooga quickly and has hit .300/.368/.464 for the Lookouts. He walks a little less than the other two guys do, but he is a year younger than they are as well. He has surprisingly good power for someone with his size (.164 isolated power) and he has good speed.
Cumberland should get a serious look as a possible opening day CF next year, which is the primary reason why I would like to see him tested in AAA sooner rather than later this year.
Do you think that Henry and Cumberland are going to get protected on the 40 man roster in the offseason? Im curious to see if Carlos Fisher, Smit, Rosales, Valiquette, and Young get protected.
Affeldt, Belisle, Coffey, Fogg, Lincoln, Mercker, Weathers, Ross, Valentin, Bako, Cabrera, Dunn, Griffey, Patterson, and maybe even AGon (Retire?) could all potentially be coming off the 40 man come the end of the year, and there is always a suprise or two as well. Now all 15 of those won’t be gone, but i’d say that a majority will be and that should open up the neccessary 40 man spots to protect just about everyone the Reds would want to protect.
I think that the Reds are going to have to sign a long man for the pen and a center fielder that can handle the bat (Kotsay?) and possibly a fifth starter. They would need sign free agents to replace Bako, Ross, and Valentin so their really isn’t much space.
I would love to see the Reds sign Kotsay for about 2 million next year and platoon him with Freel in center. I would also sign Gabe Kapler for the bench.
Would not count on Cumberland in the majors next year. He has had a great year, but it is by far his best as a pro since low A-ball. Give him time to develop. He’s not what Votto was in AA, so if he spent a full year at AAA, and judging by his development it was a good move for Votto, Cumberland will spend next year at Louisville barring injuries.
I think that the Reds need a stop gap centerfielder for next year so that the Reds can give Cumberland and Dorn time to develop in AAA. I think that Frazier will claim a corner outfield spot in mid 2009 or 2010.
I personally would like to see the Reds approach the Cubs about trading them Arroyo and seeing if they would part with Pie. They are very down on him and he needs a fresh start. He is a legitimate CFer and would allow the Bruce to move to RF, then all we have to do is come up with a LF platoon that can play D and hit some. I think that is doable while we wait for these guys to come up. Having watched Dorn hit here in Billings, I can’t wait to see him in the majors, he will hit there too, always been undervalued. I also can’t wait to get to the new park here to see Neftali Soto play!
Because of his salary and partly to his earned run average, I don’t think that the Cubs would give up Pie for Arroyo. I think Dunn is going to stick around, you just cannot replace his 40 homers and obp and there is no guarantee any of the kids on the farm will hit in the majors.
The Reds best bet is to find a stop gap (Kotsay or Cameron) center fielder, sign Dunn for 3-4 years, put Bruce in right, and wait for one of Drew Stubbs, Todd Frazier, or Shaun Cumberland to establish themself as a quality outfielder.
The cubs have sent Pie all the way back to AZL Rookie league. He could be a good buy while his stock is low.
You guys are all over it… had a busy day today and ended up at the Reds game and didn’t get home until after midnight after dropping some people off.
I am not sure about Cumberland to start off next year, because I would like to see it a bit more from him. I do think Dorn could be the LH platoon part for LF if Dunn isn’t back though.
Only way I resign Dunn is if he takes a lot less than he is making now. Yes those numbers are hard to replace but he is making Pujols money and not coming close to earning that kind of cheddar. If he is willing to take a 3 year deal at around 7-9 per year, I’d be ok with that. Otherwise, its just not worth it. Take the draft picks when he signs else where and grab an aging but still productive vet until these kids are ready.
If Dunn and Griffey walk are we assured we will get draft picks next year? Is it the same rules as in the past when MLB clubs had to offer arbitration? If so, I do not believe Cincy will offer arbitration to either.
The most worthless stat about Dunn is his OBP. It basically counts for nothing. It does not help the Reds because he has a low rate of coming around to score because you need two hits to get a run from that walk because of his lack of speed. OBP is great for a top of the order guy or a guy with speed that can generate runs. That is why in mant cases OBP is an over rated stat for judging a player.
Ron,
Dunn is probably worth about 8-10 million a year, but there is no way he will take that type of money. If he moved to first base, he would probably be worth about 11-13 million, but again I doubt he would take that kind of money.
Randy,
I think they will offer Dunn arbitration. There isn’t any way he will take it when he will have teams lining up to give him a multi year deal.
Patrick,
OBP is actually the best stat to judge an offensive player by. It correlates to runs scored better than any other singular stat. Its not Dunn’s fault he has trouble scoring from first base when he walks, its the guys behind him who can’t hit the ball. Fact is, when a guy gets on base more than anyone else on your team, its not his fault he won’t score from first all the time. Dunn does score more runs than anyone else on the team consistently, so I don’t think he has problems scoring really…. he has problems with his manager’s batting him in terrible spots in the lineup with terrible hitters behind him for most of his career.
You dont think that Dunn is worth 12-13 million a year? He should be worth it in the next four years since he is entering his prime. The market is going crazy and that is the going rate for 40 homerun high obp guys.
Do the Reds have any chance at getting compensation for Ross, Weathers, Valentin, Bako, Affeldt, or Griffey? The system could really use another top heavy draft.
Kyle,
A players prime year is generally their age 27 year. There is also the theory that players with ‘old player’ skills don’t age well. Guys that walk a lot and hit HR but don’t do much else generally aren’t the type who age well and Dunn will be heading to his lesser years. Another thing to bring up is Adam Dunn’s defense. During his prime years he has still been one of the absolute worst defenders in baseball. He isn’t likely going to get better. So now we have a guy who will likely have a declining bat and a declining glove who wants a big contract of at least 4 years? I would rather someone else take that one on and hope it works out for them and try to find a way to replace Dunn with some offense and defense mixed together. Not sure who else would garner what type of compensation if we offer any of them arbitration.