Drew Stubbs (Photo by Jim Donten, who just redesigned his website a little bit. Go check it out) has been one of my favorites over the last two years. A lot of people have been all over him because of who he isn’t rather than accepting who he is. The Reds drafted Stubbs out of the University of Texas 8th overall in 2006. He spent his half season in Billings where he struggled some while battling injuries. He showed good tools though, with his plus plus speed, above average bat speed and plus defense in CF. His bat had some questions about it still though as he struck out a whole lot and didn’t really impress in a league he should have impressed in.
In 2007 Stubbs spent the full season in Dayton where he again struggled with an injury, as he battled with turf toe all season. His first half was disappointing as he hit 247/.337/.351 but once July rolled around he made dramatic improvements as he hit .295/.385/.496. He began choking up in August of that year and it really helped him cut down his strikeout numbers and gain some more bat control. His overall season was still disappointing, but he showed improvements as the year went along and following the season he had surgery to repair the turf toe problem he played with all season.
2008 began with Stubbs playing in Sarasota where he hit .261/.366/.406 and showed an improvement in both walk rate and strikeout rate from the previous season. He also raised his line drive rate to be among the leaders in the league. He got a mid season promotion to AA where he improved some more as he hit .315 and improved his strikeout rate once again, although in a small sample size. He was promoted once again to AAA as injuries trickled down and he continued with his impressive season as he hit .293/.345/.480 in a months time for Louisville. Overall, he improved his game big time. At the plate, he made some more adjustments at the plate that improved his balance which led to plenty of walks, fewer strikeouts and nearly twice as many line drives as the year before. His power remained ‘raw power’, though he did hit a 440 foot HR in Louisville toward the end of the season.
Now with a healthy foot, Drew’s defense impressed scouts and fans alike as he is one of the best defensive players in the minors with both his range and his arm. He also made pitchers cautious with him on the basepaths as he stole bases at a much higher rate than last year.
On the offensive side of the plate is where all of the questions come from with Stubbs. As each year goes by, he seems to erase some of those questions. His strikeout rate dropped at every level from Billings all the way through AA Chattanooga before making a slight rise in Louisville. His line drive rates went way up this year and he maintained an above average walk rate. The one question still remaining is will his power develop. Right now, he has more of a gap to gap type power with his line drive swing. Still, he has power potential to hit 450 foot home runs, which leads me to believe that he eventually will figure it out some and hit for plenty of power for a centerfielder. So lets take a look at the four things Stubbs can really control when he is at the plate: strikeouts, walks, line drives and power.
- Strikeouts - They are still a little on the high side, but he has shown the ability to make adjustments from level to level as the talent level has increased. He won’t ever be a ‘contact’ type of guy, but he shouldn’t have Adam Dunn type strikeout numbers either.
- Walks - Drew walks at an above average rate. For the most part he has a strong understanding of the strikezone.
- Line drives - This year he really started hitting a ton of line drives. He was among the leaders in all of the minor leagues in line drive rates. His swing changes have really helped him here.
- Power - The biggest question still. I think it will develop, as his body and swing suggest it should. For right now though, its a little below average
Like noted, power is the one issue with Drew’s game that is needing the biggest improvement. He plays great defense, has a strong arm and he does the rest of the things at the plate well. I figure he will spend some time in AAA next year to get more seasoning before coming to the Reds full time somewhere in the middle of the season.
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Wednesday, 1. October 2008
I think it’s interesting that Dickerson was used in the lead-off role when he got called up; do you think Stubbs could also bat leadoff for the big league squad? Personally, I think a platoon combo of Dickerson and Stubbs would work well in CF for the Reds, but I am not so sure either guy should bat lead-off.
If Stubbs is destined for lead-off, then do you think his approach at the plate will be altered to improve OBP, while sacrificing slugging?
Doug Gray Reply:
October 1st, 2008 at 3:27 pm
I hope no one alters their swing to improve OBP and sacraficing power. If you hit for more power, odds are your OBP will go up because pitchers will pitch more carefully to you.
I think Stubbs could hit leadoff in the bigs, I just am not sure I would put him there right away.
Wednesday, 1. October 2008
It seems that lately Stubbs has responded to a challenge. For example, Stubbs was promoted to AAA too early some would argue, but Stubbs had success. I understand more seasoning in AAA is more than reasonable, but I would not be opposed to starting Stubbs in CF next season with Dickerson and Bruce in the outfield. Gold-glove caliber there already, and his hitting couldn’t be more of a detriment to the team than Patterson’s was.
I hope his injury concerns are a thing of the past, and I hope he won’t chronically miss time like a guy like Freel has. That is my primary concern for Stubbs.
Wednesday, 1. October 2008
If the best alternatives the Reds have come opening day for Center and left is Dickerson, Freel, and Hopper, then it is a clear choice to me that Dickerson goes to lkeft with Stubbs in center and have the best defensive outfield in baseball while Stubbs gets some on the job training. Ideally, Stubbs would get 2-3 months in AAA to refine his game and then come up in June or July, but that can only happen if a decent FA bat is signed or traded for for left or center, with Dickerosn starting in the other spot.
Wednesday, 1. October 2008
I don’t care if Stubbs spends the whole year in AAA. He still has some problomes that need to be fixed. We have the guys to hold down center for a year that will do better than paterson. We need Stubbs as a leadoff guy and i belive he needs to work on cuting down his strickouts to be one
Doug Gray Reply:
October 1st, 2008 at 5:37 pm
Strikeouts in the leadoff spot are the most acceptable place to have them at. No one is on base in front of you most of the time, so a strikeout doesn’t hurt as much.
Wednesday, 1. October 2008
Doug:
If you’ll recall, I was among those who was very disappointed in the Reds drafting Stubbs. To me, he seemed to be a right-handed Adam Dunn strikeout machine, albeit a superior defensive player. I hope the kid continues to prove me wrong and has a great 2009 season.
Wednesday, 1. October 2008
This write up is the single most positive report I have ever seen on Stubbs in whom I have been mildly disappointed. I confess that I put a higher value on defense than most and a higher value on plate discipline (walks ) than most so Stubbs gradual improvement has been quite gratifying. I’m mystified about his lack of power numbers because some referred to his having ‘light tower power’ at UT, In fact he is one of very few players ever to have hit a ball over the distant centerfield fence at the UT home park. So I have been waiting for Stubbs to bust out like francisco. Now I’ll be satisfied if he keeps improving because we need a centerfielder who can go get the ball and maintain a .350 obp.
Wednesday, 1. October 2008
Doug,
Baseball America mentioned Chris Valaika and Daniel Dorn in their chat.
Doug Gray Reply:
October 1st, 2008 at 7:05 pm
Yeah,
I saw that you got another question in there. Since we didn’t have anyone in the Top 20 I am just going to put up something about it later tonight rather than push the Stubbs talk a little lower during the evening.
Wednesday, 1. October 2008
Folks,
I’m amazed how people can feel any disappointment in Stubbs’ progression. Sure, he didn’t bolt to the big leagues like Evan Longoria, but he is still the second best position prospect (behind Longoria) to come out of the 2006 draft. And he is on the cusp of the big leagues.
The only regret/disappointment should be that we didn’t pick up one of the many great pitchers to come out of the 2006 draft (Lincecum, Kershaw, Chamberlin, Scherzer). But we didn’t. Instead we chose the 2nd best position prospect in the draft, and that’s how it still stands today. Go take a look at the draft history, and please don’t let your expectations cloud your vision.
emmcat Reply:
October 1st, 2008 at 9:57 pm
My disappointment reflects my possibly inflated expectations about power more than anything else. That and the unfair comparison to the meteoric rise of Bruce who exceeded my wildest expectations. from stubbs I expected 15 homers at Billings, 20 at Dayton etc and it didn’t happen. Blame my expectations. I’m very happy about his progress this year and because I do value defense and OBP, I’m more enthusiastic than I was this time last year by a big bunch!.
Doug Gray Reply:
October 1st, 2008 at 10:16 pm
Most everyone has to feel better about Stubbs this year than last. Still expect the power to come, watch the video below, he absolutely has the power in his bat, he just needs to learn to use it more.
http://home.insightbb.com/~goya551/public/Stubbs438HR.wmv
Wednesday, 1. October 2008
I am kind of hoping we see Stubbs later in the year. If he comes up early it probably means that the Reds aren’t winning. It would also mean that Dickerson isn’t holding down centerfield. It would be nice if Stubbs could push Dickerson to left field. That would create the world’s best outfield defense.
Doug Gray Reply:
October 1st, 2008 at 11:33 pm
The defense would be fantastic, but I am not sure how the hitting would be compared to your average outfield.
Charlie Scrabbles Reply:
October 2nd, 2008 at 12:19 am
i dont think there is any way Dickerson holds down LF next year, or ever. his bat, despite 100 ABs of 1.000+ OPS, is not near good enough for a corner spot. and his high-caliber defense is squandered over there. i think a Freel/Dickerson platoon in CF will do until Stubbs takes over.
Kyle Reply:
October 2nd, 2008 at 9:23 am
I wouldn’t mind that platoon because Freel hits lefties well and you get good or great defense either way.
It looks like Stubbs is going to make Dickerson a fourth outfielder when he comes up. I hate to see him on the bench, but at least we’ll have a little depth at that point.
D Reply:
October 2nd, 2008 at 9:39 am
Freel can’t hold up as a full time starter. When he tries 2007 production is what you get. Part time super sub is where he belongs.
Thursday, 2. October 2008
From what I’ve heard Stubbs’ defense alone is worth having him patrolling center in Cincy as soon as possible. Even if they have to hit him 8th in the lineup his speed at the bottom of the order wouldn’t be so bad.
Still the Reds need a “true” leadoff hitter. Perhaps Stubbs can become that but it will take some time and in the interm it would appear to me that the Reds will have to find a leadoff hitter from either the left field or shortstop position — both of which remain up in the air for next season.
Friday, 3. October 2008
I read on MLB.com that Drew Stubbs was an unlikley September call-up because he wasn’t on the 40-man roster, and didn’t need to be until 2010. This doesn’t sound right. He’s played 3 yrs as a professional (06-08) and was 2o or 21 when drafted. I think he’s got to be protected this winter. Is there something I’m misunderstanding?
Doug Gray Reply:
October 3rd, 2008 at 8:49 pm
He will need to be protected after next season.