Thinking about Drew Stubbs

Drew Stubbs (Photo by Jim Donten, who just redesigned his website a little bit. Go check it out) has been one of my favorites over the last two years. A lot of people have been all over him because of who he isn’t rather than accepting who he is. The Reds drafted Stubbs out of the University of Texas 8th overall in 2006. He spent his half season in Billings where he struggled some while battling injuries. He showed good tools though, with his plus plus speed, above average bat speed and plus defense in CF. His bat had some questions about it still though as he struck out a whole lot and didn’t really impress in a league he should have impressed in.

In 2007 Stubbs spent the full season in Dayton where he again struggled with an injury, as he battled with turf toe all season. His first half was disappointing as he hit 247/.337/.351 but once July rolled around he made dramatic improvements as he hit .295/.385/.496. He began choking up in August of that year and it really helped him cut down his strikeout numbers and gain some more bat control. His overall season was still disappointing, but he showed improvements as the year went along and following the season he had surgery to repair the turf toe problem he played with all season.

2008 began with Stubbs playing in Sarasota where he hit .261/.366/.406 and showed an improvement in both walk rate and strikeout rate from the previous season. He also raised his line drive rate to be among the leaders in the league. He got a mid season promotion to AA where he improved some more as he hit .315 and improved his strikeout rate once again, although in a small sample size. He was promoted once again to AAA as injuries trickled down and he continued with his impressive season as he hit .293/.345/.480 in a months time for Louisville. Overall, he improved his game big time. At the plate, he made some more adjustments at the plate that improved his balance which led to plenty of walks, fewer strikeouts and nearly twice as many line drives as the year before. His power remained ‘raw power’, though he did hit a 440 foot HR in Louisville toward the end of the season.

Now with a healthy foot, Drew’s defense impressed scouts and fans alike as he is one of the best defensive players in the minors with both his range and his arm. He also made pitchers cautious with him on the basepaths as he stole bases at a much higher rate than last year.

On the offensive side of the plate is where all of the questions come from with Stubbs. As each year goes by, he seems to erase some of those questions. His strikeout rate dropped at every level from Billings all the way through AA Chattanooga before making a slight rise in Louisville. His line drive rates went way up this year and he maintained an above average walk rate. The one question still remaining is will his power develop. Right now, he has more of a gap to gap type power with his line drive swing. Still, he has power potential to hit 450 foot home runs, which leads me to believe that he eventually will figure it out some and hit for plenty of power for a centerfielder. So lets take a look at the four things Stubbs can really control when he is at the plate: strikeouts, walks, line drives and power.

  • Strikeouts – They are still a little on the high side, but he has shown the ability to make adjustments from level to level as the talent level has increased. He won’t ever be a ‘contact’ type of guy, but he shouldn’t have Adam Dunn type strikeout numbers either.
  • Walks – Drew walks at an above average rate. For the most part he has a strong understanding of the strikezone.
  • Line drives – This year he really started hitting a ton of line drives. He was among the leaders in all of the minor leagues in line drive rates. His swing changes have really helped him here.
  • Power – The biggest question still. I think it will develop, as his body and swing suggest it should. For right now though, its a little below average

Like noted, power is the one issue with Drew’s game that is needing the biggest improvement. He plays great defense, has a strong arm and he does the rest of the things at the plate well. I figure he will spend some time in AAA next year to get more seasoning before coming to the Reds full time somewhere in the middle of the season.