Today is the day I will start the Top 40 prospect list for 2008. I will do 10 prospects per day and hopefully Friday we can have a topic to discuss the overall rankings. You can check out the previous years rankings by clicking here or going to the link above the banner at the top of the page. Let me start off by saying this was the most difficult list I have ever had to make. Some of the guys I left off the list were pretty good prospects. Anyways, lets get onto the list.
Philippe Valiquette came in at #31 on this years list (Photo: Jim Donten)
31. Philippe Valiquette - LHRP - 21 years old
Valiquette (right, photo by Jim Donten) seems like he has been around forever, but he was drafted as a 17 year old out of Canada which makes it feel like he is older than he is. He features a fastball in the 92-95 MPH range, which coming from a lefty can be dominating. He may start in Sarasota or in Carolina next year.
32. Sam Lecure - RHSP - 24 years old
Lecure doesn’t have anything overpowering, but he knows how to use his 88-91 MPH fastball, solid change up and slider to get hitters out. He posted a FIP under 4.00 in AA this year and I would expect him to start 2009 in Louisville.
33. Dallas Buck - RHSP - 23 years old
Buck was a big time draft prospect heading into his junior year of college before losing velocity on his fastball. He was drafted by the Diamondbacks and tried rehabbing before heading in for TJ surgery. This year was his first season back and the velocity wasn’t where it was, but his changeup was still very good and his sinker was leading to Brandon Webb type groundball rates. If he were fully healthy he would rank much higher. He could start in Sarasota or in Carolina next year.
34. Jordan Smith - RHSP - 22 years old
Jordan Smith’s best pitch is his 90-95 MPH fastball that has plenty of sink on it which leads to him inducing 55% of balls in play against him on the ground. At face value his promotion to AA wasn’t successful as he posted a 5.40 ERA, but looking deeper we can see that he had a 4.32 FIP, strong groundball rates as well as solid K and BB rates. Look for him to start in AA Carolina next year.
35. Shaun Cumberland - OF - 24 years old
Cumberland has always been one of those ‘toolsy’ types of players who hadn’t really put together a solid season in the minors. He made big strides in AA this year as he posted a 12.5% walk rate (much higher than any rate he has ever had previously) and that helped lead to an .826 OPS in Chattanooga. His numbers fell off a bit when he was promoted to AAA, but they look a little unlucky although he will need to fix his K rate from AAA. Look for him to head back to Louisville next year.
Juan Carlos Sulbaran pitching in Fall Instructional League play (Photo: Jim Donten)
36. Juan Carlos Sulbaran - RHP - 18 years old
Sulbaran (right, photo by Jim Donten) did not play this year as he signed on the final day that he was able to sign. He did go to China and play on the Netherlands National Baseball team. The Reds paid the RHP $500,000 to sign as a 31st round pick. He throws 89-92 MPH with good movement on it. He is currently in Fall Instructional League and I would expect him to begin in either the GCL or Billings next year as an introduction to pro ball to help limit his innings some.
37. Sean Watson - RHRP - 23 years old
Watson has some of the best stuff in the system, but he has a real tough time throwing it for strikes. He walked over 16% of the batters he saw this year. He struck out a crazy 29% of batters, but if he doesn’t hone in some control he isn’t going to have any success regardless of how good his stuff is.
38. Sean Henry - OF - 23 years old
Sean Henry is coming off a season where he was 22 for most of the year in AA and posted an .814 OPS. The main concern is that he is an undersized guy at 5′10 and 180 pounds. He is a very solid guy and it wouldn’t surprise me if he turns into a Ryan Freel type of player without as many steals but with a little more power. It honestly wouldn’t surprise me if he started out next season in AA again because of depth issues.
39. Brandon Waring - 3B - 22 years old
Waring has some really good power in his bat as seen with his 20 HR, but the strikeout rate is downright scary at 31%. Given his age and the level, he is going to need to make some big improvements in the strikeout department. Look for him in Sarasota next year.
40. Ramon Geronimo - RHRP - 24 years old
Ramon Geronimo has done nothing but dominate the minor leagues since he has come over from the Dominican. He has a 1.03 WHIP and 2.19 ERA in his minor league career (in the US). His stuff isn’t overpowering exactly as he tops out around 91 MPH, but he uses an above average change up to fool hitters. He could start in AA or AAA next year.
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Monday, 13. October 2008
I thought one of the issues in why it took up to the deadline to sign Sulbaren was that he didn’t want to get stuck i nshort season next year. If this is true it could be that he starts in Dayton at the start of the year. I think Cumberland might be a little low in these rankings. Watson I see as too high, because I am not high on him at all. He has yet to show proper control in his time in the Reds system.
Doug Gray Reply:
October 13th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
I know Sulbaran had that issue at hand, but its a long offseason to convince someone that their innings need to be a bit more controlled. Maybe he is ready to throw 120 innings though, I can’t say for sure how many innings he threw this past year. Still, I am betting on the safe side with him.
As for Cumberland, he showed patience at the plate for about 250 at bats this year and never has before then, so I am still pretty skeptical with him.
With Watson, like I said, if he can get even some control, he is going to be good. If he walked say, 12% of the batters he saw this year, which is still decently high, I would have had him much higher.
Monday, 13. October 2008
Who in 31-40 has made the biggest climb from last year? Biggest drop?
Doug Gray Reply:
October 13th, 2008 at 3:29 pm
biggest drop is probably Brandon Waring or Sean Watson who were ranked 15th and 17th last year. Biggest jump is tough because some guys weren’t in the system last year, so given those who weren’t in the system last year, probably Cumberland who wasn’t in contention last year.
D Reply:
October 13th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
I would guess that the biggest jump was Valliquette who had a very good year in High A, albeit he is getting the crap kicked out of him in Hawaii so far.
Monday, 13. October 2008
Good stuff Doug. I think Sulbaran will make a huge leap into the top 10 next season.
Monday, 13. October 2008
The most intriguing guys to me are definitely JC Sulbaran and Dallas Buck. Both of these guys right now would probably project as #3 to #5 types. However, if either is able to add some velocity to their fastballs it would appear they could be top of the rotation type guys. It may well be possible that both can. Sulbaran is young enough he may grow and develop the strength in his arm to increase his velocity. Buck is only a year removed from Tommy John surgery. It generally takes a year and a half or more for full recovery so Buck may regain his fastball.
If the Reds are able to develop both of these guys and have them major league ready in 4 years then the current depth of the starting pitchers in the system will be looked at as a lot better. Hopefully Lotzcar is higher in Doug’s prospect list. If so those three (Lotzcar, Buck, and Sulbaran) give the Reds three pretty good guys at about the A ball level.
Doug Gray Reply:
October 13th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
I fully expect Sulbaran to add velocity. His mechanics are clean, although I think he could use his body a bit more in his windup to get a little bit more velocity. Buck is a wild card, if he can get back in the 90’s with his fastball, he has a chance to be really good.
Beard Reply:
October 13th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
Am I correct in thinking that if Buck is going to add to his fastball that this is the year we would see it. I’m not exactly sure when his TJ surgery occurred but it seems like this season is the range of when he should be close to 100%. Is this a correct thought? or could he still need another year and have the velocity not return until the year after next?
Doug Gray Reply:
October 13th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
2009 should give us a much better idea of where his velocity will be at than 2008.
Monday, 13. October 2008
Doesn’t 34 seem a little low for Jordan Smith? Maybe its just a sign of the system’s depth, but I like his fastball and think he will end up being a good reliever in the bigs if not more. There were seasons where I think Smith would have been in the top 10 not too long ago.
Im surprised to see Josh Ravin left off of the list.
Doug Gray Reply:
October 13th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
honestly, its the system. When I went into this I had him pegged as a guy in the low 20-25 range. Then as I started listing all of the guys in consideration I couldn’t justify him any higher than where I put him.
Monday, 13. October 2008
How deep the system has become is ridiculous, however, some of the young arms need to turn out or it could be trouble in a few years. Lotzkar, Buck, Sulbaren are the biggest hopes right now.
Doug Gray Reply:
October 13th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
I would throw Evan Hildenbrandt in there as well.
Monday, 13. October 2008
Do you think that Sulbaran gets a shot at Dayton next year? I would think that he could handle the MWL after staying in extended spring training for about a month and a half to keep his innings down.
Doug, do you think you could do a feature at the end of the top 40 where you show guys who were on the cusp? There seem to be some guys with upside that just missed out.
Kyle Reply:
October 13th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
whoops. i missed the part where you said you thought he’d start at in billings or the gcl.
Doug Gray Reply:
October 13th, 2008 at 5:41 pm
Yeah, I figure Fridays discussion will bring that all out. There are some guys I just can’t believe didn’t make it in the end.
Tuesday, 14. October 2008
It is confirmed by he Reds that JC Sulbaran will have the opportunity to make the Dayton staff for the 2009 season if not he’ll start in Billings.
Up to now he pitched only 4 innings during the Instruct’s his next start is scheduled for Wednesday, the last day of the instructionals. In these 4 innings he faced 14 batters allowing 1 hit and no runs.
He’s learning to pitch on contact and in stead of blowing batters away with his fastball (that peaked 95 during the Olympics), he’s getting batters out with easy groundballs and Flyout’s.
Tuesday, 14. October 2008
Between American Herritage High School, Midland Braves summer league and his international outings with the Dutch team, JC Sulbaran made a total of 22 starts this year and pitched 115 inning for an average of 5 inning per outing. According to Scot Forseman his pitching coach at American Heriage, JC was getting stronger and stronger at the end of the season. He pitched a couple of verry tough games this year including two games against Team Cuba. His last outing was agianst Cuba (again) during the Olympic, where his fastball peaked at 95 miles. He allowed only 3 hits and 2 earned runs in 5 innings, while striking out 6. His record for the year 2008 was 18-3 (lost 2 against Cuba)
Doug Gray Reply:
October 14th, 2008 at 11:06 am
Good stuff here. Given his innings this year, I would bet he makes Dayton’s staff next year. I didn’t think he had thrown that much.
Tuesday, 14. October 2008
Ater seeng several of Reds prospects during the Instructionals, 36 seems like low for JC Sulbaran. The fact that he stil has no pitch a prossional game maybe is the reason.
In any case JC Sulbaran will have the chance to pitch against mayor league players, before he ever trhows a pitch in the minor league. He’ll pitch for the Neherlands team, during the 2009 World baseball Classic (March 6-11 2009). Netherlands will play in a pool with Panama, Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic.
Doug Gray Reply:
October 14th, 2008 at 11:08 am
For me its a mix of the insane depth the Reds have and his age/inexperience. His upside is way up there, but he is still really far away, which hurts him overall on lists like this. That said, he could be the guy that makes a big jump up the list once he plays a full season.
Tuesday, 14. October 2008
The more I read about Sulbaren the more excited I get. I thought it was impressive when I heard he was topping out at 92, but for an 18 year old to have logged 115 innings in a year and hitting 95, that is just unbelievable. Him pitching in the WC is even better news. Before he takes on the likes in Low A ball, he’ll be taking on Manny, Ortiz, and other MLB superstars.