Just moving along today we are going to look at the Top Prospects in the 21-30 range. Yesterday we covered the guys in the 31-40 range.
21. Pedro Viola - LHRP - 25 years old
Viola is a lefty who throws in the mid 90’s and has a very good slider as well as a changeup. His numbers don’t look the greatest, but he was the recipient of quite a bit of bad luck. He posted a FIP of 3.65 while striking out 23% of the batters he faced. Look for him in Louisville next year.
22. Justin Turner - 2B - 23 years old
Turner has been about as solid as you can be his entire career. He will hit for a strong average, get on base plenty and show a little pop all while playing good defense at second base. He doesn’t have any outstanding tools, but is good at everything. He could start in Carolina or Louisville next year.
23. Chris Heisey - OF - 23 years old
A good defender in centerfield, Heisey also has shown that ability to hit through the minor leagues. He is also very good on the base paths as he has 65 steals and has been caught just 13 times in his minor league career (83% success rate). Reminds me of Chris Denorfia in a lot of ways. Look for him in Carolina next year.
Jeremy Horst was dominant as a starter (Photo: Dayton Dragons)
24. Jeremy Horst - LHP - 22 years old
Horst (right) began the season in the bullpen for Dayton, but was promoted to a starters role later in the season and made 10 dominating starts (5-0, 1.64 ERA with 52K and 11BB in 49.1ip). He throws a fastball in the 88-91 MPH range that he mixes with a plus change up as well as a developing slider. Look for him in Sarasota next year.
25. Alex Buchholz - 2B - 20 years old
Buchholz fell off his junior year with some injuries, but his previous two seasons he hit a combined .383/.433/.704 at Delaware with 29 HR and 43 doubles in two seasons as an 18 and 19 year old. He went to Billings and despite missing time due to an injury lit the league on fire as he hit .396/.471/.604. He could start in Dayton or Sarasota next season.
26. Robert Manuel - RHRP - 25 years old
There are dominating seasons and then there are what Manuel did. The righty posted a 1.93 FIP in AA while striking out 31% of the batters he faced and he walked just 5%. He features a fastball in the 89-93 MPH range with a ton of movement, a slider and a change up that is above average. He is a bit older, but he really came into his own this year. Look for him in Louisville next year.
27. Evan Hildenbrandt - RHSP - 19 years old
The right hander throws in the low 90’s with an above average curveball and a change up. He spent his season in the GCL where he was pretty dominant as he posted a 2.67 ERA and struck out 24% of the batters he faced. I would look for him in Dayton next season.
Travis Wood had some struggles this year (Photo: Tim Evearitt)
28. Travis Wood - LHSP - 21 years old
Wood features one of the best changeups thrown by a lefty in baseball, and I don’t mean the minors. His fastball is in the 88-91 MPH range and he has added a cutter in the mid 80’s as well. He had a rough transition to AA though as his strikeout rate really dropped off while his walk rate raised itself. Stuff wise, he has what you like to see. He needs to control it a little more though. Look for him in AA again next year.
29. Matt Maloney - LHSP - 24 years old
Maloney throws a fastball in the 87-90 MPH range with a good change up, average curve and a slider. He tends to work up in the zone at times and it costs him. He does have good control and will not walk many batters, but being a fly ball pitcher that throws softly doesn’t project too well.
30. Scott Carroll - RHSP - 23 years old
Despite a recent suspension for testing positive for PED’s (he denies it and is fighting it along with the Reds), Carroll has good enough stuff to make the list. He has a fastball that tops out at 93 MPH and despite getting a late start to his baseball career due to his playing college football, he has made a solid transition to pr baseball. Without the suspension, he may have ranked a little higher.
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Tuesday, 14. October 2008
First off, I won’t be looking for anyone in Chattanooga as the Reds AA affiliate is now in Carolina. I think you have Hesiey too low. He hits well, has great D, can run the basepaths great, the only thing he lacks is power. He hits for a solid average and has great OBP skills, and while the power is a minus, he has enough to where opposing teams have to respect it. Buchholz could be a real fast riser next year. I think he gets the Todd Frazier treatment and starts in Dayton, but will earn a High A promotion after about 25-30 games. I wouldn’t have Viola that high. You can have all the metrics in the world, but the fact is that he gave up a lot of runs last year.
Doug Gray Reply:
October 14th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
Touche on the Chattanooga reference.
As for Heisey, he is just the type of guy who is going to have to prove himself over and over again. I don’t really think he is too low, I think it just seems that way because of the rest of the system.
With Viola, his stuff is top of the line and he is a lefty. He gave up a lot of runs this year, but mostly because his defense couldn’t turn balls in play into outs at anything resembling normal rates.
coltholt Reply:
October 14th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
I agree that Heisey is too low. I also think that he is not set in stone as being in Carolina. If everything goes against him, he will be there. If the Reds use a platoon of Dickerson/Stubbs on opening day, Heisey will be in Louisville as the starting CF. Secondly, he will be playing in Puerto Rico this winter and could certainly earn a spot in Louisville based on his play this winter and in spring training in LF if Stubbs is left in Louisville for seasoning.
As far as the power shouldn’t be that much of a problem. As he develops as a player and sees the same level of pitching throughout the year, the numbers will come up. He has been near the top of the organization in Doubles the past two years, so he has some pop there even if they don’t get out.
Kyle Reply:
October 15th, 2008 at 1:09 am
I doubt that Stubbs is ready for the majors until september at the earliest, and in that case the Louisville outfield would be filled with Cumberland, Henry, Dorn, and Stubbs. Heisey could use a little more time in AA anyways, but he has to cope with a logjam of outfielders.
Tuesday, 14. October 2008
Good stuff again. I like Viola at 21. I saw him pitch on TV last spring training and I came away very impressed. His fastball/slider combo reminded me of Rafael Perez of the Indians. Hopefully he can bounce back with a strong 2009 season. I also like the placement of Horst. He may turn into a solid big league lefty. Manuel may help the Reds sometime next season. And Buchholz, I look for him to make a huge leap next season.
Tuesday, 14. October 2008
Doug, can you go over the criteria you use to rank pitchers and how they are weighted?
Doug Gray Reply:
October 14th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
Its a mix of performance, projection, stuff, numbers and sometimes just gut feelings on guys. The first thing I look at is what they throw though. If it doesn’t project well in the majors, its going to weigh heavily on my ranking. Sure there are some guys who can get away with lackluster stuff, but for everyone who does there are 25 more who can’t. Then I move onto their numbers, then onto their size and projection.
Tuesday, 14. October 2008
I think some of Wood’s struggles in AA were due to fatigue after pitching so few innings the previous season. I wouldn’t be surprised if he worked his way back toward the top of the Reds’ pitching prospect list by season’s end.
Tuesday, 14. October 2008
Robert Manuel and Jeremy Horst seem to be ranked a little high considering their modest stuff. Do you see them being more than middle relievers in the big leagues?
I really like Hildenbrandt’s chances of moving into the top ten next year. Its great to see guys like him and sulbaran that are close to making that step in the back half of the top 40. I’m just amazed at some of the upside so low on the list. Definitely encouraging.
Doug Gray Reply:
October 14th, 2008 at 9:46 pm
Manuel’s stuff isn’t exactly ‘modest’. A fastball with lots of movement in the low 90s goes a long way and with his numbers it was just impossible to rank him any lower. With Horst, as a lefty, his velocity is fine and his change up being a plus pitch gives him two at least average pitches right now. The big issue with him is the uncertainty of whether the Reds plan to use him in the pen or rotation next year. If the Reds view him as a starter, I would have ranked him inside the top 20.
Tuesday, 14. October 2008
Wow if things work out and the Reds hold Lotzcar back a bit they may well have a rotation at Dayton that included Lotzcar, Sulbaran, and Hildenbrandt. That is some major talent. Heck that rotation is probably better right now than some of the crappy Reds rotations we’ve seen in the past decade (ok that is a slight exaggeration, but not much of one).
D Reply:
October 14th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
I’m not sold on Hildenbrandt yet, but I am real high on Lotzkar and Sulbaren
Kyle Reply:
October 14th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
Don’t forget Oscar Castro and Josh Ravin. They aren’t exactly soft tossers.
Doug Gray Reply:
October 14th, 2008 at 9:47 pm
Ravin can’t find the plate though and until he does show that ability, he won’t be making another appearance on the lists.
Kyle Reply:
October 15th, 2008 at 1:11 am
You’ve still got to be intrigued by the upside though don’t you?
Doug Gray Reply:
October 15th, 2008 at 1:52 am
Intrigued yes, impressed no.
Tuesday, 14. October 2008
Question: What is up with Alexander Smit (LHSP)? He had a good year in Sarasota and his career minor league stats are good. However, he still hasn’t lived up to the immense hype he was getting from Baseball America and others a few years back when he was in the Twins’ system.
What kind of stuff does he have? and What is holding him back from becoming a legit prospect?
His stats in both the FSL and MWL look pretty good to me, and he is still fairly young for a pitcher. Why no love in the top-40?
Doug Gray Reply:
October 14th, 2008 at 9:48 pm
He is a real tough guy to get a grasp on. He used to throw 94 MPH. When the Reds first got him, he was topping out around 88 MPH. He is just an enigma and I can honestly say he was in contention, but given the unknown factor with him, he missed out.
Tuesday, 14. October 2008
How many of these top 40 are vulnerable to the Rule 5 draft? It would seem that P Viola, R Manuel, S Cumberland, S Henry & R Geronimo are clearly “of age” while S Lecure, M Maloney & P Valiquette are seeimngly close? With all the FAs on the Reds’ 40-man [Mercker is still on the roster? LOL] we can protect most/all of the vulnerables… or can we?
No rush on this, just wanted to plant the seed (for your copious free time, Doug, LOL)
Doug Gray Reply:
October 14th, 2008 at 9:56 pm
Cumerland, Fisher, Lecure, Maloney and Henry for sure. Manuel, Geronimo and Valiquette I will have to check on.
BTW, sorry for taking so long to get back to everyone. I currently have the flu, so I am just trying to make it through the days right now. Tampa Bay is currently making it all better with their 10-1 lead in Boston.
Fritz Reply:
October 14th, 2008 at 10:48 pm
Some tough Rule 5 decisions coming, as you can see even with the five you list: Cumberland, Fisher, Lecure, Maloney, and Henry. I like Cumberland and Henry but I don’t think we can afford to expose the pitchers. Somebody will take Fisher for sure and he’s one I definitely do not want to lose. I have a feeling Lecure may also develop into a contributor as a relatively solid #5, which, as this last year should have taught us, is a very valuable thing to have. Good list. I like Viola where he is; a lefthander with 95 Mph stuff has got a lot of upside. I’d actually like to see the experiment with him as a starter continued a little longer. Good to see Manuel in there too; he’s earned it. I really like Hildenbrandt and think he could be a little higher–maybe Wood too, at only 21–but it’s a good sign of our depth that we’ve got guys with real potential down here in these numbers.
Tuesday, 14. October 2008
Protecting Fisher is an absolute must IMO. He’s got the stuff to be a great reliever.
Doug Gray Reply:
October 14th, 2008 at 11:39 pm
Don’t want to give too much away for tomorrow, but I think his placement is going to surprise some people. Thats ok, I stand by it.
OnBaseMachine Reply:
October 15th, 2008 at 12:23 am
If you’ve got him in the top ten (or 8-12 range) you won’t hear any complaints from me. I’ve liked him since he was drafted due to his size and stuff, plus he’s got a cool name. ;)
D Reply:
October 15th, 2008 at 7:44 am
I could see Fisher in the 15 range, he really found his niche as a reliever this past year after being converted from a starter. His good stuff, and heavy groundball tendencies fit very well in GABP and he could be a valuable middle relief guy.
Wednesday, 15. October 2008
If the Reds decided to DFA Majewski, Belisle, Livingston, and Hopper, that should go a long way to protecting those who need protecting. To me, that is a no-brainer as I’d rather protect our prospects than those guys. Even with that, Geronimo might be the odd man out. I believe Valiquette would be Rule 5 eligible, but I think it would be a stretch for another team to pick him up and keep him at the big leagues all year given he’s only been as far as A ball and he has not raised his stock from his Hawaiian performance (4 runs in 1 inning last night). I think it would be an acceptable risk to leave him off protection this year if it comes to that, but I’d also hate to lose him.
Viola pitched 3 shutout innings yesterday and is more and more becoming a key prospect we may see in Cincinnati very soon, IMO.
coltholt Reply:
October 15th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
I agree on Majewski, Livingston, and Hopper…but I don’t think that it is time to give up on Belisle yet.
Wednesday, 15. October 2008
I dont think that Cumberland, Henry, or Valiquette need protecting. I couldn’t see any of those three sticking on a major league roster. Im not even sure that Sam Lecure needs protecting. Hes not major league ready and he doesn’t have the great raw stuff that you can use out of the pen.
Patrick Brame Reply:
October 15th, 2008 at 1:51 pm
I agree Kyle we have guys that are eligible for rule 5 but they for the most part do not need to be protected because they are not MLB ready. No sense in wasting a 40 man roster on a player not ready.
Wednesday, 15. October 2008
I’d not spend a spot on protecting Belisle. I do think Lecure could very possibly be taken. If I were Texas, I’d certainly take him.