Still chugging along today we are going to look at the Top Prospects in the 11-20 range. Yesterday we hit the guys in the 21-30 range and on Monday covered the guys in the 31-40 group.
11. Juan Duran - OF - 17 years old
Juan Duran batting during Fall Instruction (Photo: Jim Donten)
Duran (right - Photo by Jim Donten) was rated by most as the #2 prospect on the international scene coming into this season and the Reds were the only team to notice that he was eligible to be signed before the July 2nd start date. They ponied up 2 million dollars to get the teenager who is said to have plus plus raw power and a very strong arm. He is currently in Sarasota participating in Fall Instructional League. My best guess would be that he starts next year in the GCL.
12. Daryl Thompson - RHSP - 22 years old
Thompson really burst back onto the scene this year as he regained his pre-arm injury velocity and then a little bit more. He was back to working in the low 90’s but capable of reaching back for a little more while mixing in his curve, change and slider at times. He posted an ERA of 2.19 between AA and AAA before getting a cup of coffee in the majors before having a slight injury. He should be in the running for the #5 spot in Cincinnati next year, although I think he would make a fantastic set up man out of the bullpen.
13. Carlos Fisher - RHRP - 25 years old
Carlos Fisher had an outstanding transition to the bullpen this year after starting the first few years as a pro. The ground ball machine (60% ground ball rate) struck out over 22% of the batters he faced thanks to a sinker in the 90-95 MPH range. He has the makings of a very good bullpen guy that could help late in games. It wouldn’t surprise me if he broke in the season with the Reds, but I expect him to spend time in Louisville early on.
14. Josh Roenicke - RHRP - 26 years old
Roenicke was pretty dominating in the minor leagues this year as he posted 2.79 ERA between AA and AAA. He sits comfortably in the 94-96 MPH range with his fastball, although he relies on it a little too much. Like Fisher, I would not be surprised to see him break camp with the Reds as a hard throwing bullpen arm.
15. Zach Cozart - SS - 23 years old
After making some adjustments with his bat last year, Cozart came into his own this year and showed some solid power as well as a good ability to hit for average. His best asset is his defense though, as its top of the line at a position up the middle. I would expect him to be in Sarasota next year.
Yorman Rodriguez at Fall Instructionals (Photo: Jim Donten)
16. Yorman Rodriguez - CF - 16 years old
Rodriguez (pictured right - Photo by Jim Donten) was rated as the #3 international prospect and the Reds went out and paid him 2.5 million dollars to become a Red. He has been compared to Eric Davis and a RH version of Carlos Beltran. He has plus plus speed and very good defense. There are some questions about his bat from some though. He may start in the GCL, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he played in the DSL next year.
17. Ramon Ramirez - RHP - 26 years old
Ramirez split his time in the bullpen and the rotation last year. He features a fastball that sits 88-91 but can go higher at times and a plus change up. He should be in contention for the #5 starter spot out of spring training, so he may start in Cincinnati or in Louisville.
18. Chris Dickerson - CF - 26 years old
Dickerson has always had a full toolbox, but this was the first year he really showed them all off. He posted an .864 OPS in Louisville this year before getting a call to Cincinnati where he hit .304/.405/.608 in 121 plate appearances while playing good defense. He was playing over his head in Cincinnati, but its not out of the question to think he can’t be an average major league centerfielder for the next few years, especially if he is protected from tough lefties. Look for him in Cincinnati next year.
19. Adam Rosales - INF - 25 years old
Rosales came up as a shortstop, but he is more suited for the other 3 infield positions. He has a strong arm and a solid glove on the defensive side of things. At the plate he can hit for average and has some pop in his bat. He could be a very valuable super sub type of player at the very least.
20. Ryan Hanigan - C - 28 years old
Hanigan is the oldest guy on the list, but he also plays the most important defensive position in the game and he is pretty good at it. His bat is solid in that he can hit for a decent average and he knows how to work the count very well and puts the ball in play often. He won’t hit for much power, but at the catchers position you can’t ask for much at the plate if the guy is a good defender and will also hit for average and get on base well. I think he will be the starting catcher on the Reds next year.
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Wednesday, 15. October 2008
you were right Doug. the depth of this system is very surprising. this has been an exciting week reading about it all.
one question: what kind of future do you see from Rosales? we didnt much of him at all this past September, so i dont really know what to expect from him. could he hold down a starting spot at 3B or 2B in the majors? or is he Jeff Keppinger with a bit more power?
Wednesday, 15. October 2008
I honestly think he could easily hold down a 2B spot as a starter. I think he could struggle to hit well enough to be a starting 3B at first, but eventually could handle it.
Wednesday, 15. October 2008
5 years ago this would have been the 1-10 list. It’s amazing how far the system has come.
Wednesday, 15. October 2008
I imagine it was very hard in figuring out a spot for Yorman and Duran on the list relative to the players we have seen a lot more of? What factored into your placement of these two?
Doug Gray Reply:
October 15th, 2008 at 11:35 pm
Honestly Rahul, its a mix of what I have read and heard from scouts and their signing bonuses that tell me how much the Reds value them. It was tough to find a place for them, but I feel that I put them in the right spots for now.
Wednesday, 15. October 2008
Good point D. This is the most exciting thing about the Reds right now. A lot of credit for this must be given to Bob Castillini, who was willing to go out and spend for international free agents. It is amazing how deep the system is and it is amazing how many of these kids are coming from outside of the United States.
Wednesday, 15. October 2008
Also to me the most intriguing guys on here are Duran and Rodriguez who may well be in this same ranking range this time next year and then in the top 10 for a couple of years after that. To think by age 20 or 21 these two will have 4 years of professional ball under their belt is amazing. I mean seriously by age 23 or 24 they could well be very seasoned professional hitters. Add to that their other tools of speed and power and the Reds have the makings of an outfield with Duran and Rodriguez and Bruce. Add in the likes of Soto, Frazier, and Alonso and you are just talking about some amazing talent. Truly amazing.
Wednesday, 15. October 2008
I was starting to think that you were going to push Fisher into the top ten. Would Thompson have made the top ten if not for his injury past? I was surprised to see him out of the top ten because he seems to have #3 starter stuff and he really performed this year.
I love how there are so many people outside of the top ten who have a legitimate chance of breaking out and being an elite prospect. Juan Duran, Yorman Rodriguez, JC Sulburan, Oscar Castro, and Travis Wood seem to have the potential to become big time prospects next year.
Im assuming that Danny Dorn cracked the top ten.
Doug Gray Reply:
October 15th, 2008 at 11:38 pm
Re: Thompson
Yeah, I think he would have been in the 7-10 range, but with his past history and his size, I think he could be a very good reliever in the Tom Gordon mold. I just am not too sure he can hold up over the long haul as a starter.
Re: Dorn
I have a feeling you may be correct.
Wednesday, 15. October 2008
Well, by process of elimination, I’m guessing the Top 10 are (in no particular order):
Alonso
Soto
Frazier
Mesoraco
Dorn
Stewart
Lotzkar
Stubbs
Francisco
Valaika
Wednesday, 15. October 2008
is there any way to look at stats from the instructional league …. john fay just posted that it ended today with mesorcaco winning the most valuable player award … Dernell Stenson won the most valuable pitcher award … and Bradon Waring winning the most outstanding hitter award
Krozley Reply:
October 15th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
The mvp award won by Mesoraco is called the “Dernell Stenson” award after the late Red.
Rusty Reply:
October 15th, 2008 at 5:16 pm
lol yea i got confused trying to switch from that website back over to this one …. curtis partch was named most outstanding pitcher
Wednesday, 15. October 2008
Good to see Mesoraco impressing, all the tools are there, they just need polished up.
Doug Gray Reply:
October 15th, 2008 at 11:39 pm
Yeah, he is a raw player being from Pennsylvania. He has the bat speed to plate discipline to be a good hitter though and defensively, he needs work but his arm and athleticism suggests with some work he can be very good back there.
Wednesday, 15. October 2008
I love the young guys but to think that both Yorman and Duran will be MLB starters is crazy. Neither has showed anything to even dream of an OF of those 2 and Bruce.
Personally I see one of them not making based on pressure alone. The odds are stacked against them. I hope, wish and woudl love to have to them make it but it’s almost crazy to expect it.
Am I crazy to think this way or am I being a realist?
Nice list though Doug.
I was wondering where Cozart, Thompson and Haningan woudl fall.
I like Hanigan and think he could be the C we’ve needed in Cincy. I would love for him to get a shot and for us to leave the Texas Catchers alone. They all seem to have holes just as Hanigan does.
Can’t wait for the top 10
Wednesday, 15. October 2008
I agree with you 100% Chris. As I have mentioned in annother post. Duran and Yorman are far away. Duran still has to learn the game. Of course they have the tools and of course they are promising. But don’t be fooled. The definition of talent is “kowledge of the phisics of sports”. And your are absolutely right Chris. Neither has showed anything……..
Doug Gray Reply:
October 15th, 2008 at 11:43 pm
They were by far the two most difficult to rank. Last week I spent some time reading my notes on them from scouts I talked to earlier in the season (for those who don’t know, I keep files on everyone in the system where I keep scouting reports, notes and other information on each player I either see or get a chance to talk to someone about). Like I stated above though, I think I have these two ranked about right given their upsides. They are both very far away obviously, but have plenty of things to offer that hardly anyone else in the system can offer and that is what makes them special.
D Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 7:12 am
Duran has plus plus raw power, and Yorman has plus plus speed. You don’t see the plus plus thrown around too much by scouts, as you only see that when there is a special talent. You see the phrase plus thrown around a lot by scouts, but plus plus is far rarer.
Beard Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 7:42 am
D — that is the thing I keep hearing too and that is that they are both “special” talents. Maybe I have a short memory but I don’t really remember anyone outside of Eric Davis and Jay Bruce and maybe Reggie Sanders who were hit with the “can’t miss” type labels and the plus, plus description in talent type categories. (No I don’t think remember Brandon Larson having those type reviews).
Am I missing anyone? Also I don’t want to appear to be saying that there is no way Duran or YRod could miss as it is probably 50/50 on anyone that young. I mean you just don’t hear about 16 and 17 year olds very often. Maybe Junior and Alex Rodriguez and even with them I don’t know exactly when they burst upon the scene age wise.
Krozley Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 9:32 am
To lend credibility to the 50/50 theory, in 1999 two acclaimed 16/17 year olds were signed to huge bonuses out of Latin America. Wily Mo Pena and Miguel Cabrera. Where Cabrera is a superstar, Wily Mo just hasn’t been able to live up to the hype. If 10 years from now, one of Duran/Yorman is the next Cabrera and the other is a journeyman, we should be pretty happy.
coltholt Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
In response to Beard, I don’t know the age on ARod, but Junior was taken with the number 1 overall pick at the age of 17
Wednesday, 15. October 2008
Good stuff Doug. I’m looking forward to seeing the top ten.
Thursday, 16. October 2008
If the list is ment to forecast players who has the best chances to make it on the Reds 40man rooster, in the next couple of years, Duran and Yorman should be on the top of the list. If they don’t make it, people are going to get fired!
Doug Gray Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 11:00 am
It is meant to be that type of list, but it also takes in probability that they do.