The final 10. You guys probably figured out who they were by elimination, but the order is what makes it fun. Yesterday we went from 11 to 20, Tuesday was players 21 through 30 and Monday was 31 through 40.
Yonder Alonso ranks atop the Reds Prospect list
1. Yonder Alonso - 1B - 21 years old
Alonso (right) was the Reds 1st round pick in 2008 and just brings an all around offensive game to the table. He can hit for average, he has some pop in his bat and he has very good plate discipline. He reminds some of the Padres Adrian Gonzalez. Already on the 40 man roster, expect him to be on the fast track. Where he starts next year is up in the air, but expect it to be either Sarasota or Carolina.
2. Neftali Soto - 3B - 19 years old
Soto was known for his big time power in high school as he broke Juan Gonzalez national HR record for high schoolers in Puerto Rico. His ability to hit for such a high average along with his power is what really sets him apart from most. He hit .340 this year between Billings and Dayton while slugging a combined .558. His one issue has been drawing walks to this point, although he hasn’t shown a high strikeout rate, so his plate discipline isn’t much of a concern just yet. Look for him in Sarasota next year.
3. Drew Stubbs - CF - 24 years old
Stubbs value starts with his plus plus speed and his game changing defense in center. His bat however has made some strides this year as well. He lowered his strikeout rate again this year and went through 3 levels all the way up to AAA while showing a stronger performance than he did in 2007. There are still some questions about his bat, but they are going from ‘will he ever hit’ to ‘how much will he hit’. I think his bat will allow him to be an above average major leaguer when coupled with his defense. I would look for him to be in Louisville to begin next season.
4. Todd Frazier - INF - 22 years old
Frazier’s bat is legit. He can do it all, hit for power, hit for average and draw his fair share of walks. The main question with him is where he will play on the field. The Reds have had him at SS, 3B and 1B this year. Still, no matter where he ends up, his bat will play there just fine. Look for him to start in Carolina next year.
Chris Valaika with a HR (Photo: Tim Evearitt)
5. Chris Valaika - SS - 23 years old
Valaika (right) lit the Florida State League on fire to start the year and earned a promotion after a month to AA. He began slow but really caught fire after a month there (.318/.364/.460 from June on). He hits the ball to all fields and with some power (only 6 of 19 HR were pulled) and will hit for a solid average. Valaika improved his range this year, although there are still a lot of questions about whether he can stick at SS in the majors defensively. Expect him in Louisville next year.
6. Devin Mesoraco - C - 20 years old
Coming out of high school Mesoraco was a late riser that vaulted into the first round. He struggled to start, but rebounded this year in the pitching friendly Midwest League. He had some defensive concerns early on in the year, but as the season progressed they improved. He has all the tools to play an above average catcher, he just needs to learn to use them more in game. His bat is still a bit raw (although he did win the Dernell Stenson award in Fall Instructs), but the bat speed is there and his plate approach isn’t bad. Given how catchers often develop, he seems to be on schedule. Tough to guess where he goes, as it may benefit him to be in Dayton again although I suspect the Reds push him to Sarasota.
7. Kyle Lotzkar - RHSP - 18 years old
Had it not been for a late season elbow fracture, Lotzkar would have ranked higher than he is at right now. The injury brings about some concern still, but until told otherwise, its just a bump in the road. Lotzkar has a 90-95 MPH fastball, a good change up and a good curveball. He struck out a crazy 29.6% of the batters he faced this year while being extremely young for the league he was in. His control needs a bit of work still, but he has #1 potential. Depending on how his arm is next year he could be in Dayton or Sarasota next year.
8. Zach Stewart - RHRP - 22 years old
Stewart was the Reds 3rd round pick this year and has some absolutely electric stuff. He has a mid 90’s fastball with movement that tops out around 97 MPH. He couples that with an above average slider as well. He struck out over 26% of the batters he faced last year in his limited 32 innings. He looks to be fast tracked and I expect him to be in Carolina next season.
9. Danny Dorn - OF - 24 years old
Dorn has done nothing but hit the cover off the ball since being drafted. He has very good power (.235 career isolated power) and real strong plate discipline (.090 career isolated discipline). His defense is nothing special, but its not terrible either. His bat is his calling card though as he has a minor league career OPS of .915 in 3 seasons through AA. Look for him in Louisville next year.
10. Juan Francisco - 3B - 21 years old
Francisco has some of the best power potential in the minor leagues as the ball just explodes off of his bat. His power is legit and he can hit pitches all over the zone. That strength also leads to his weakness though, as his ability to draw walks is among the worst in all of the minor leagues. His potential is through the roof, but he must improve his plate discipline before he can be a fully productive player. Defensively he possess a plus arm, although I feel he is going to outgrow the 3B position and maybe need to move off the hot corner. Look for him in Carolina next year.
Comments
Feed
Thursday, 16. October 2008
This is a pretty cool top 10 list for this reason - its diversity of positions. Nearly every role in the game is filled with just these 10:
C: Mesoraco
1B: Alonso
2B: Frazier
SS: Valaika
3B: Soto/Francisco
CF: Stubbs
corner outfield: Dorn/Frazier
SP: Lotzkar
RP: Stewart
How great to have a top 10 player at each position
Thursday, 16. October 2008
Well Reds fans have a lot more to be optimistic about regarding their minor leaguers than they have had in many, many years. Offensively, except for the Dunn, Kearns, Pena era, you have to go back to Sanders and even further back to the Larkin, Sabo, and O’Neill era for comparison. Pitching, I can’t think of a comparison.
Thanks for a great web site!
Bill
Thursday, 16. October 2008
Great list Doug. The only thing I would change is, I would drop Mesoraco to around the 10-13 range.
Thursday, 16. October 2008
Doug do you think Frazier and Alonsos performance this year in the Winter Leagues will dictate where they start the year this upcoming season ?
Doug Gray Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
I think it will have something to do with Alonso, but not Frazier. Frazier won’t skip over AA.
Thursday, 16. October 2008
Super job, Doug, and a pleasure to read and digest for the next few months.
Thursday, 16. October 2008
Doug what are the chances we see any of these 10 playing in cincy next year even if its just a september callup . If i had to guess id say Alonso could be a september callup , Stewart is fast tracked and will reach Cincy sometime next year , Valika and possibly Frazier see some time in Cincy and Stubbs
Doug Gray Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 1:42 pm
Stubbs, Valaika and Dorn are all slated for AAA next year. It would be no surprise if any of them were in Cincinnati at some point next year. That said, the same goes for Frazier/Alonso and Stewart who could be there later in the year.
Thursday, 16. October 2008
I like Alonso’s potential, but I’m afraid that he is over-ranked here. I hope that he can live up to the hype, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him struggle in his first full year. I feel much more comfortable dropping him about 4 spots, until we see what he can do next year.
I don’t think we should under-value what the others (Valaika, Stubbs, Frazier, Soto) have proven up to this point.
Doug Gray Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
At the same time, it seems you are undervaluing what Alonso brings to the table and showed at a big time college that has a history of producing legit major leaguers left and right.
Thursday, 16. October 2008
I must be the only one not high on Alonso. I would only rank him 6 or 7. He does not bring much as an all around player. I would rank players that have speed, arm and defense at more important positions higher than him. Soto, Stubbs Frazier Valaika and Fransisco I would rate higher than him because they all bring more than a bat to the table.
Alonso is just above Dorn in my book. He also has had struggles vs lefties. I would not rate him higher until he can show he can hit lefties.
Justice Tyler Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 1:54 pm
I dont see how anyone could not like what Alonso brings to the table . You are not going to find to many lefties that hit .300 off of LH Pitching. Alonso can hold his own against lefties and absolutely murder righties. The thing I love about Alonso is his eye. The guy knows the strike zone and like Doug said coming out of Miami which is known for producing high level talent I see no problem having Alonso 1.
Patrick Brame Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
I did not say that I do not like what he brings to the table. But there are other prospects that bring more than just a bat who I feel are better prospects because of that fact.
Patrick Brame Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 8:34 pm
FYI.
Alonso hit .227 vs lefties this year in college.
So far in Sarasota and Hawaii he has hit .150 vs lefties and a k rate of 34%
Doug Gray Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 8:48 pm
He has some work to do against lefties, but he has what it takes to be successful against lefties as a lefty. Guys that are willing to go the other way usually don’t struggle so much with it, because even though the ball is tailing away from them, they are going with the pitch.
Doug Gray Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
Alonso is an all around hitter with power to all fields who is very polished and has a high chance of reaching his potential. Yeah, he plays first base, which diminishes some of his value, but he is going to be an offensive force to deal with and I feel fairly confident with that. He is the safest guy in the system and coupled with his upside, its what placed him at the top of the list.
Thursday, 16. October 2008
Doug, I’m having a hard time grasping a comparable player for the ceilings of stubbs and frazier. Who do you think they could reach at their peak?
Doug Gray Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
Its tough to find a comparable player really. I think Stubbs can be a Mike Cameron type of guy, with a little less power and maybe a higher average. With Frazier, I see him as being a solid .825-.875 OPS type. Hard to have a solid comparison given that he doesn’t have a position really yet.
Sjesu Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 7:20 pm
How about Brad Hawpe for Frazier? They are similarly sized, Hawpe had a .304/.390/.557 line in the minors. Frazier’s is .298/.378/.500. Hawpe’s OPS+ the last 3 years is 120, 129, 122. I’d be pretty happy with a few years like that from Frazier no matter where he plays.
Thursday, 16. October 2008
I’m with Patrick on the Yonder debate. I just have to wonder how he is more valuable than Stubbs, Soto, or Valaika. Each brings more than just a bat to the table, plus each has proven their worth over the course of a professional season.
I just think it is unwise to rank a rookie prospect so highly, especially considering that someone like Stubbs was drafted as highly as Alonso, has two years of experience on Alonso, and brings 5-tools compared to Alonso’s two.
Here’s a hypothetical question to ponder: If the Reds had drafted Pedro Alvarez, Eric Hosmer, or Buster Posey would they rank higher than Soto or Stubbs? They were all selected higher than Alonso in this year’s draft, but I would not consider any of them to be our number one prospect immediately. At least, not until they had a productive year under their belt.
Doug Gray Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 2:35 pm
Stubbs had a very raw bat coming out of college and everyone knew it, and he has had to climb uphill ever since then. Had Drew Stubbs from 2006 been drafted this year he would have ranked 6th at best.
And Alvarez and Posey would have ranked higher than Soto and Stubbs. Hosmer probably not, because he is a high school kid so we know less about him.
Doug Gray Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 2:35 pm
Let me switch that, Hosmer would rank between Soto and Stubbs.
Kyle Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
I really like Soto, but I think you might be selling Hosmer short here. He has a real special bat.
Doug Gray Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 3:29 pm
Yes, he does…. but Soto just got done hitting .340 and slugging .550 in the minor leagues at age 19. His bat is pretty special in itself and he has a track record to go on compared to Hosmer with his high school stats and 15 rookie ball plate appearances.
CURCOACH Reply:
October 17th, 2008 at 8:56 am
I Like Soto very much. For me he’s the #1 prospects for the Reds. However I would not compare him to Hosmer. Not only they are diferent type of players, but Hosmer is second to none when you consider potential Mayor Leaguer. Hosmer is an impact player with Superstar potential. I have seen him hit a walkoff homer that was still rising when clearing to fence. He’s the best… no doubt in my mind!
Thursday, 16. October 2008
Frazier’s swing reminds me of Matt Williams. Who would be an appropriate comp for Soto? Moises Alou come to mind for me. Thanks for a great list.
Thursday, 16. October 2008
Did you mean that you though Stewart would start the year in AA or get there at some point? I still cannot figure how he fell to the Reds in the third round. It is almost as if the Reds had a second round pick and no third rounder.
I could see the Reds having another nasty boys trio someday with Roenicke, Burton, and Stewart.
Doug Gray Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 3:29 pm
I think he will start there.
Thursday, 16. October 2008
So, if Homer Bailey was still considered a prospect, where would he fall on this list? Have Lotzkar, Stewart, and Thompson surpassed him on potential?
Doug Gray Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
Bailey would have at worst been #3.
Doug Gray Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 3:31 pm
Let me add - Homer Bailey still has a ton more potential than any other starter in the system that isn’t on the major league roster right now.
erik Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
nothing wrong with this either, bailey has a lot to prove next season. I think this disappointing year will actually be good for him….that is if he isnt traded.
erik Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
personally id put him behind stewart/lotzkar ahead of thompson… but it’s a tough call, good question.
Thursday, 16. October 2008
In charting out where everyone might be placed in the minor league levels next year, it gets pretty exciting seeing the depth, especially in pitching. The AAA staff in particular should be loaded with solid prospects. Competition for roster spots at Sarasota and Dayton should be intense as there are too many prospects to fit them all.
There are, however, some clear paths for some guys to make a nice jump. Buchholz will probably start in Dayton, but there isn’t much between him and Turner and a good season could propel him to Carolina by the end of 09. First base is very intriguing as the question will be where Alonso starts. Sarasota seems to make sense, but that leaves Logan Parker at AA and Guitirrez at AAA. A solid Hawaii followed up by a solid Spring Training could nudge Alonso to AA to start and hopefully on up to Louisville mid-season. Plus, Waring could move to first in Sarasota with Soto at 3B and Alonso gone.
Thursday, 16. October 2008
On rotowire.com (subscription required), John Sickels ranked the top 100 prospects. Todd Frazier (48), Yonder Alonso (75), and Matt Maloney (99) were the only Reds listed. I can understand omitting Stubbs but Soto should have been ranked some where close to Frazier. I don’t get the Maloney ranking either.
josh Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 3:14 pm
How can Criss Valica not be on that list.
Doug Gray Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
John Sickels is out of his mind. Straight up out of his mind.
Matt Maloney apparently the Reds #3 prospect? I know its probably a fantasy list, but even still, Maloney doesn’t come close to being ahead of a whole slew of Reds prospects.
Snake the Jake Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
The list was posted 10/12/2008.
I think it is a fantasy list, meaning more importance is placed on potential short term impact. However, Tim Beckham and other recently drafted high schoolers were ranked.
Snake the Jake Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
Sickels said he accidently left Soto off of the list.
Doug Gray Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
Accident? You mean someone told him ‘you seriously left off Neftali Soto’ and he was like ‘who?’ and then actually did some research and was like ‘holy smokes, this kid is really good’.
Snake the Jake Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
No. He did a write up about Soto about a month ago on rotowire.
Doug Gray Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
Well its good to see he doesn’t have his head in the sand. Still, Maloney that high, just incorrect.
D Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
This guy is bats#!+ crazy
Thursday, 16. October 2008
He was probably doing a fantasy ranking for minor leaguers that could contribute next year. Stubbs wouldn’t be a good fantasy pick for next season.
Thursday, 16. October 2008
this list has the same players I selected in the user lists (different order) I feel…like…sorta smart all the sudden! (lol, j/k i wish I knew as much as the minor league expert)
lets hope they keep the majority of these players and dont trade them away.
Thursday, 16. October 2008
I don’t know about Sickels, but if I was making a list of Reds’ prospects who were on the verge of contributing, I sure would put Stubbs near the top. I really think that with a good spring, he could be platooning with Dickerson in CF next season. Of course, this would mean that Freel gets traded, and we have acquired a bat in LF. Please make it so Walt!
I reckon that I could see Maloney contributing soon, especially if he lights up in spring training. I mean, we sure do need a lefty, but I’d still put my money on Ramirez, Thompson, or Bailey making the team first, however.
Beard Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 4:26 pm
In terms of chances of being the #5 starter next year (assuming Harang, Volquez, Cueto, and Arroyo) I’d rank the players like this:
Owings
Bailey
Ramirez
Thompson
Maloney
To me that is a pretty difficult ladder to climb to get the #5 spot for Maloney. But one thing that is a testament to is the strength of the Reds rotation when compared to their normal position at this point in the past decade. Heck of that list there as many as three of those guys would have been expected to be starters in past years.
coltholt Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 8:45 pm
i like your list. i agree completely with the first 4…maloney could be up there, but i think that i might have adam pettyjohn in front of maloney, but that is a tough call…there is also the outside possibility that Belisle could come back into the competition at some point…pretty nice to have that kind of legit competition for one spot!
erik Reply:
October 17th, 2008 at 12:25 am
put owings in the pen and pinch hit the crap out of him. (personally I want him in left next year, and I know I’m frickin insane because of it, but I dont care)
And for the 5th pitcher spot I’d sign someone above average, and if possible way above average.
Thursday, 16. October 2008
Does anyone care to post Sickels writeup on Soto?
Snake the Jake Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
Here’s his conclusion. I won’t post the whole thing since a subscription is required to view it.
FANTASY INVESTMENT VALUE
Soto is a long way from the majors, and he has to prove that he can make the needed adjustments. He could begin 2009 at the High-A level, but given his rapid advancement this year and need for additional experience, it seems logical that the Reds would give him as much time as possible at that level, polishing up his defense and refining the strike zone. Don’t expect Soto in the majors before late in 2010, and perhaps not until 2011. His ceiling, however, is potentially quite high, and in a long-term league with a deep farm roster, and investment in Soto would make sense.
Thursday, 16. October 2008
Soto’s bat alone makes him the most intriguing to me. To have someone hit for that kind of average AND power at that age in extremely amazing. Dare I say it but almost Manny Ramirez like in numbers. I know, I know it is only A ball but if he can do anything like that at Sarasota this year he may start cracking overall minor league top 10 lists next year.
Regarding the Alonso ranking, I have no problem with it. He is simply a lot closer at this point than Soto. Factoring that in, you can make a case that there is a much better chance of seeing him in Cincinnati versus the outside chance that Soto may hit some road blocks. Now if you asked who would be more willing to trade and the answer would be I’d let Alonso go because of his position limitations make him easier to replace. Basically firstbasemen grow on trees, while Soto and his ability to play third make him overall more valuable in my mind.
Double A Carolina could be really stacked with talent this year if Alonso starts there. Add to that Frazier and Stewart and the Mudcats will be a fun team for those in the region to watch.
The main thing I see from these rankings is that the position players are as good as I ever remember the Reds having and most of them are in the two year range from helping in Cincinnati. While the starting pitching talent is in a lower range and is about four years away. However, given the Reds needs at the major league level are mainly position players and the starting rotation seems to be adequate for the next couple of years that isn’t all that much of a problem to have those position players in the system where they are and those pitchers where they are.
Thursday, 16. October 2008
Doug I have an interesting question for you (and anyone else who would like to comment as well). My question is what would your list look like if it was solely based on raw talent or “highest ceiling” if you will?
FWIW, I think mine would look like this:
1. Soto
2. Y. Rodriguez
3. Alonso
4. Duran
5. Lotzkar
6. Stewart
7. Frazier
8. Stubbs
9. Mesoraco
10. Sulbaran
Doug Gray Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 7:03 pm
Highest ceilings only?
1. Yorman Rodriguez
2. Drew Stubbs
3. Juan Duran
That would be my top 3 for sure. Yrod and Stubbs up the middle because of their speed/defense as well as power potential.
Beard Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 8:47 pm
thanks Doug. I would have thought for sure Soto had one of the top 3 ceilings. Am I wrong in thinking he is capable of manny-like numbers in the pros (.330 35 hr 125 RBI)?
Doug Gray Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 8:52 pm
He may have that type of ceiling, although I don’t really think RBI has anything to do with a ceiling as it does with your teammates and spot in the lineup.
With Yrod and Stubbs, they both have the potential to hit 25 HR while playing gold glove defense in CF and the guys who can do that year in and year out are hall of famers. Those guys obviously have a long ways to go before reaching that, but up the middle defenders that are game changers both in the field and at the plate get the nod in my book over almost anyone.
Duran is ahead just because of his massive power potential and what seems to be his understanding of the strikezone at a young age already.
erik Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 10:14 pm
I was thinking about duran the other day and looked up his stats. Immediately i noticed the walks/OBP. I’m not very stats savvy (since I have a hard time remembering the “whats good” range for stats), but a .340 OBP jumped out at me given his average was so low.
Thursday, 16. October 2008
anyone catch keith laws chat ? it was posted on the redlegs message board
Matt (Cambridge): With Alonso the 1B of the future in Cincinnati (apparently), does it make sense for the Reds to shop Votto or does the team move one of them to the OF?
SportsNation Keith Law: (1:30 PM ET ) If Votto can play the outfield, sure. But I’m not confident he can, and they need LF for Encarnacion, who is brutal at third.
Rick (Cincinnati): How about Homer Bailey for Rickie Weeks? Reds could move Weeks to CF.
SportsNation Keith Law: (1:55 PM ET ) Depends on Bailey’s health, but sure, it makes sense - my disappointment for yours.
Brett (WI): Keith, speaking of Bailey, how do you see his stuff playing up out of a pen? Is there any possibility of him ever pitching an 8th or 9th inning?
SportsNation Keith Law: (1:59 PM ET ) I don’t think he’ll ever command the ball well enough for highly leveraged work. He throws so far across his body that he can’t repeat it.
dave (erie,pa): todd frazier - starting thirdbaseman, starting SS, Starting LF, or bench player?
SportsNation Keith Law: (2:16 PM ET ) Not an infielder. Starting LF or bench player. Still want to see that big hitch play at higher levels.
Greg (DC): Who would you say is the single-worst defensive player among major-league regulars?
SportsNation Keith Law: (2:19 PM ET ) Edwin Encarnacion comes to mind. Hawpe. Cantu. Ibanez.
Charlie (Bethesda, MD): Are there any Nats in the AFL or did Bowden think the season was over when Bon Jovi’s team won the championship?
SportsNation Keith Law: (2:21 PM ET ) Every team is required to send 7 players. Not every team is able to send 7 prospects.
kris st louis: brett wallace can he play third
SportsNation Keith Law: (2:13 PM ET ) It’s a stretch that he’ll play there in the majors. His lateral movement is limited, but he has the arm and moves in on balls well. The question is whether he costs you 10 runs a year or 20 at third. Ten you can live with, twenty probably not.
Ryan (Boston): What is Justin Masterson’s actual future, starter, leveraged reliever, or 120 inning super reliever?
SportsNation Keith Law: (2:28 PM ET ) Either of the last two. Would love to see him become a real 100+ inning reliever … longtime readers know I’m obsessed with finding a guy to fill that role. Too bad the last candidate turned out to be a ridiculously good starter…
Joe (Ithaca): Can you describe what you picture the 120 inning reliever’s role would be?
SportsNation Keith Law: (2:29 PM ET ) 2-3 innings a stint, 2-3 times a week. Would really only work with a guy who pounds the strike zone and gets quick outs - like Masterson.
Jeremy T (Canandaigua, NY): I am a Yankees fan and even I know Gus is wrong…missing the playoffs this season was overdue, in my opinion…I thought it would have happened 2 years ago. We need to get younger position players…what do you think of Kennedy for Votto?
SportsNation Keith Law: I’d probably do that if I was the Yanks, but the Reds should hesitate - not sure I like Kennedy in that park with a bad defense.
i think its funny that yankee fans say kennedy for votto .. just throw away their prospects that havent worked out for a good player . when will yankee fans learn
Dave from Louisville Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 8:08 pm
Keith Law is a no talent ass clown, if he wasn’t he’d still have a job with an MLB club. He also hates the Reds. Much like Steve Phillips.
I just looked up Phillips’s Wikipedia page check out this except:
“He was extremely critical of the Cincinnati Reds Rule V Draft acquisition, Josh Hamilton, suggesting that the Reds were condoning Hamilton’s years of substance abuse and other off-the-field problems. ”
Gotta love the Reds fan that put that up.
erik Reply:
October 17th, 2008 at 12:11 am
“He throws so far across his body that he can’t repeat it.”
“Still want to see that big hitch play at higher levels.”
wtf do these sentences mean??
votto for kennedy…lol, stupid yankee fans.
Thursday, 16. October 2008
Question for Doug: Would you care to expand the list to 50? I’d love to see your characterization of the prospects who just missed the cut. I can imagine the likes of Tatum, Smit, A. Gonzalez, and Parker pushing the ‘envelope’ next season making huge strides in prospect status.
Doug Gray Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 7:03 pm
Tomorrow I will list the guys who just missed out.
Thursday, 16. October 2008
I hope Bailey makes Keith Law eat crow next season. I’d love to see Bailey turn the corner next year.
Plus, I still think EE can be a good 3rd baseman. Guy has great range, but will need to get his arm right.
This offseason is huge for both of them. They either get right, or things will have to change.
Thursday, 16. October 2008
Keith Law is an idiot. You could go pick some 15 year old kid off the street and he would know more about baseball than Law.
josh Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 8:45 pm
Im some 15 year old kid, pick me!
Thursday, 16. October 2008
There is no doubt in my mind that Bailey will be good so long as he avoids injury. EE is a great glove-man and he has concentrated for stretches in the past on making on-the-money throws to first. The 2nd half of 2007 he made very few errors. I think he got back into bad habits during winter ball and never shook it. I give EE one more year to straighten out those throws partly because of guys like Valaika & Frazier arriving later.
Doug Gray Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 9:31 pm
If the Reds can’t land a big time bat for LF in the offseason, I would honestly be looking to move Votto to LF and EE to first base and try to bring in a 3B. Adrian Beltre would be my #1 target. You give me a line up of:
1B - EE
2B - BP
3B - Beltre
SS - anyone
LF - Votto
CF - Dickerson/Freel platoon
RF - Bruce
C - Hanigan
And I will give you a winning baseball team, 100% guaranteed.
matchu522 Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 11:39 pm
I suggested moving EE & Votto in the Thinking about Juan Francisco thread. I think he would be a VERY good 1B and Votto is athletic enough to be solid in LF. I agree with most of your list. I had Alonso at #3 behind Stubbs and Soto and with Francisco 4th. I just want to see him play a little more before I can put him at the top.
Krozley Reply:
October 17th, 2008 at 9:42 am
This is how I see it also, except I would go ahead and move BP to short and do all the changes at once. AGon would just be nice insurance to have and that opens 2nd for the hot prospect du jour (Valaika or Rosales, with Kep/Freel/Hairston/Castillo as potential stopgaps). I think that would still be a huge upgrade defensively, even with all the position changes. If AGon is back and healthy, imagine the infield defense of EE, BP, AGon, and Beltre next year. If all goes well, the 2010 lineup would have Alonso, Valaika, BP, Frazier and an outfield of Votto, Stubbs, and Bruce. EE traded or off the bench and probably getting plenty of at bats subbing for 1B/3B/OF. Makes one want to drool at the potential!
Thursday, 16. October 2008
I know he barely hits, but would it be the worst thing if the Reds played Janish at short to start next year? I love the way he plays defense, and I think his glove could make a difference there. He could at least bridge the gap to Valaika.
Doug Gray Reply:
October 16th, 2008 at 10:16 pm
Honestly, I he couldn’t be worse than Corey Patterson and I doubt Dustbag would bat him leadoff…. but its something I would really like to avoid seeing.
Thursday, 16. October 2008
Good call.
Thursday, 16. October 2008
Someone mentioned the ceiling of Soto, I’ll probably get roasted for this, but he reminds me a bit of Miguel Cabrera.
Friday, 17. October 2008
Well I will have Danny Dorn in the top 5. The bottom line is this guy has produced big time at every level in the minors. Really with exception of Soto probably the best overall batter we have in the minors. A .915 OPS over a 3 year period proves to me that he is the real deal. The guy is not flashy but it would not suprise me at all if he hits 30 plus homers next year. The guy was hurt some last year and still put up big numbers. I think this guy will be in LF at some point next year for the Reds.
D Reply:
October 17th, 2008 at 7:12 am
Dorn’s biggest problem at the plate right now is consistency. He is even streakier than Adam Dunn. If Dorn could hit consistently, his OPS would be over 1.000.
Friday, 17. October 2008
I really would like to keep Alonso, Eddy, and Votto. Any way Votto or Alonso could play 3rd? Votto seems to have decent range and I think he could make the transition.
Friday, 17. October 2008
Seeam like everyone is giving up on Alex Gonzalez as the Reds SS for next season
Doug Gray Reply:
October 17th, 2008 at 10:10 am
With his knees, I can’t honestly believe the Reds are counting on him heading into next year. There absolutely has to be a plan B that isn’t Jeff Keppinger for SS next year.
Friday, 17. October 2008
Looking at what seems to be the likely roster for 2009 I think we can only expect to be a little better next year unless there is a major acquisition. I really hope the F.O. looks to add a bat in free agency rather than trade any of the best prospects. I know you have to trade value for value to get that RH bat we all want. Frankly , I’d rather use free agency and wait for some of these kids to start arriving- maybe as early as next July. If that means progress next year but no play-offs , so be it.
Friday, 17. October 2008
Great middle defense CF, SS, 2B & C. combine with good bats, makes contendors, however in my mind championships or won with solid middle relievers. Effective and dominant pitching that can shot down the oppenent and keep you in the game after the starter fades out in the 6 or 7 inning. Doug help me out here, What’s the quality of middle relieve Reds has right now?
Friday, 17. October 2008
Doug
Thanks for an excellent webpage. I’m guessing the guys acquired in trades wouldn’t qualify for this list, except for Buck. Does anybody know how Richar, Ownings, Massett and Castillo ranked in the last top 40 of the DBacks and White Sox respectively?
Sam Reply:
October 17th, 2008 at 8:55 pm
Clammy,
Make sure to view the whole post.
http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?sr=y&msg=50362.1&nav=messages&webtag=ml-reds
Monday, 20. October 2008
Great reading and diligent work as always, but Alonso hasn’t done anything to be ranked No. 1. He’s got 19 pro ABs and his college numbers don’t equate because of the aluminum/wood bat differential. Potential and prospect aren’t mutually the same.
Doug Gray Reply:
October 21st, 2008 at 1:13 am
Potential and prospects go hand in hand. At the end of the day, its about who will provide the best production at the major league level. Mix in the likelihood of reaching it and thats where I get my rankings. Alonso has a high ceiling and he is very polished at the plate. You always have to worry how someone transitions to wooden bats, but Alonso brings good contact and a great eye already. Personally, I am not too worried about his power either.
Thursday, 23. October 2008
Of the players that didn’t quite make the top 40 cut, Craig Tatum is the best bet to make the majors. Classic good field/no hit catcher. He should at least carve out a niche as a backup.