Photo: Tim Evearitt/Chattanoogan
Justin Turner was drafted in the 7th round of the 2006 draft out of Cal State Fullerton. While at Cal State Fullerton Turner hit .328/.397/.427 while striking out just 11.1% of the time and walking 7.2% of the time. He only hit 8 HR over the time he was there, but hit 61 doubles, showing some gap power. He was sent to Billings the year he was drafted and hit .338/.411/.511 while showing some good power with 16 doubles, 3 triples and 6 HR. At the end of the 2006 season I ranked him as the Reds 12th best prospect.
Turner found himself in Dayton in 2007 where he continued to be solid with the bat as he hit .311/.374/.446 while hitting 10 HR. One thing that jumped out though was the changes in his strikeout rate that jumped up to 14%.
2008 saw Turner begin the year in Sarasota, although he would spend more than half of his season in Chattanooga as he would hit .316/.384/.390 in Sarasota before the promotion. The drop in power was noticed in Sarasota, but most players see their power numbers drop off in the pitchers league. Once he got to Chattanooga the power returned and then some as he would hit .289/.359/.432 for the Lookouts with 8 HR in about half a years worth of at bats. He also saw his walk rate rise to 9.6% on the year with a slight jump up to 15% in strikeouts.
Defensively Turner can handle second base well. His arm plays fine for second and his range is above average. He can turn the double play well from second (he helped turn 67 of them this year in just over 100 games) and doesn’t make a ton of errors as he posted a .980 fielding percentage this season.
Offensively Turner is a good bat control type of guy. He doesn’t strike out and he hits line drives all over the place. He controls the strikezone and will take a walk if the pitches aren’t there. Thanks to the lack of strikeouts and the line drives he will hit for a good average (career .310 hitter in the minors). The one question that remains about his game though is the power. For second base, he doesn’t need to hit for a ton of power, but he doesn’t project to hit many HR’s (10-15 peak I would say). Lets look at the four things he can control at the plate: Strikeouts, Walks, Line Drives and Power:
- Strikeouts - He is at a very good rate, below 16% last season.
- Walks - Also a good rate at over 9% last year.
- Line Drives - Posted a 21% line drive rate, also very good.
- Power - His isolated power last year was just .135. That is a little below average.
Turner has been described as a ‘gritty baseball player’, just the type of guy who knows the game and plays smart while getting the best out of his abilities. He doesn’t really have any tools that standout, but he doesn’t do anything below average either. If his power rises just a little bit, he could project as a starting second baseman in the majors. I would expect him back in AA with Carolina this year at the start, but also see him finishing the year in AAA.
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Tuesday, 18. November 2008
He’s a 5′11″ white guy. Did you think he’d be described as anything but a “gritty baseball player?”
I could see Turner having a good 10-year, Todd Walker type career, but with more defense and less power. Eventually though he’s going to run into Brandon Phillips, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets packaged in a trade.
Doug Gray Reply:
November 18th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
Lol, if he were a 5′11 fat white guy who played first base, I doubt he would get that ‘gritty baseball player’ label. Still, I think Turner gets that label for a reason, unlike some guys who might get it for other reasons.
Kyle Reply:
November 18th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
that reason being he got hit in the face by a pitch and still plays?
Doug Gray Reply:
November 18th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
Probably not. Although that gives him points.
Tuesday, 18. November 2008
I like Turner, but I don’t envision him breaking into the starting lineup with the Reds as he is blocked by Phillips and Valaika. I think he could stick in 2010 similar to a Jeff Keppinger role (at least the role JK should play) as the infield backup. He could be the right-handed backup first basemen while getting some time at 2b, 3b, and maybe even the outfield.
Doug Gray Reply:
November 18th, 2008 at 6:27 pm
Well, the idea with projecting guys is what they could do in theory if they weren’t blocked. The idea behind that is, you never know what happens. A trade or an injury opens up that spot awful quick.
Tuesday, 18. November 2008
Well, if David Eckstein’s grittiness could drive a team to the World Series (Yes, I am one of the many who miss FireJoeMorgan), perhaps Turner could do the same for us
Tuesday, 18. November 2008
Turner’s development this year along with Valaika could put the Reds in position to trade Brandon Phillips if there appear to be any major needs next off season. If Phillips were to struggle at the plate next year as he did this year I wouldn’t have much of a problem with that type of trade.
Turner seems to be the prototypical #2 hitter and I look forward to seeing how he fairs this year at AAA. I actually hope he gets the chance to start out there with Valaika at short so they can begin to build chemistry together as a double play combination.
“Gritty” players is what the Reds have been lacking for a while now. Give me guys like Youkillis and Pedroia and Eckstein and just one or two superstars and I’ll start giving you championships.
Doug Gray Reply:
November 18th, 2008 at 6:29 pm
Youk and Pedroia played like superstars this year. Pedroia was the third best player in the AL this year and Youk was also a top 10 player in the AL. So yeah, give me the #3 and #9 guy in a league and odds are I will be bringing you some championships too.
Tuesday, 18. November 2008
If he could hit .280 in the big leagues and play above average defense at second he’d make an ideal #2 hitter in front of bruce, votto, alonso and company.
My concern is whether or not he could handle shortstop if he needs to break in as a utility player.
Doug Gray Reply:
November 18th, 2008 at 6:29 pm
He has been labeled as a guy who could play SS in such a role.
Tuesday, 18. November 2008
To me, Turner is the kind of guy all successful teams seem to have. I’m not worried about his lack of power. By the time Turner makes the majors, the Reds should have plenty of power in other positions.
Ramon Reply:
November 18th, 2008 at 9:49 pm
Turner was that guy at Fullerton. He helped the Titans get to the College World Series 3 out of his 4 years, winning the National Championship in 06. Valaika and him have played together every year since 06 and are a very good combo up the middle. Check out this video.
http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?mid=200811063666904
Tuesday, 18. November 2008
Just going over the AA and AAA rosters, and I’m having a difficult time finding positions for everyone. I’m not complaining, as this is a very good thing. However, I have to ask; where will position-players like Eric Eymann, Michael Griffin, Michael DeJesus, Drew T. Anderson, and Drew M. Anderson fall out? Are any of these guys worth dealing for some lower-level, rookie pitching prospects?
Doug Gray Reply:
November 18th, 2008 at 8:22 pm
The better question is, are any of those guys worth a low level pitching prospects worth bringing in?
wanderinredsfan Reply:
November 18th, 2008 at 9:26 pm
I think they might, especially if they are thought to still have potential at least worthy as legitimate options off the bench. It is quite possible, with playing time and small improvement, that Eymann, Griffin, and Drew T. Anderson could hit over .300 with an OPS over .850 in AAA next year. Eymann, Griffin, and Drew M. Anderson have all been selected as All-Stars at one time or another during their minor league tenures. Don’t these guys have enough upside to warrant another team’s interest? If they don’t have a place to play within our system, shouldn’t we at least shop them for rookie-level prospects, as oppossed to letting them rot on minor league benches?
Wednesday, 19. November 2008
Off subject. I am still deployed and I see that Affelt signed with the Giants. Are the Reds getting compensation?
On subject. I love Phillips’s glove, but I don’t like his hitting attitude, I would consider moving him at some point while he has value. Let Val and Turner play short and second.
Doug Gray Reply:
November 19th, 2008 at 4:12 am
The Reds will get a sandwich pick for Affeldt.
As for Phillips, I am with you on that one. I wouldn’t start either Valaika or Turner just yet, but I would move Phillips if possible.
Thursday, 20. November 2008
Turner is the kind of player that grows on you the more you watch him play. As much as gritty I would just describe him as a “baseball player” somthing the Reds have struggled to come up with as they have searced for those 5 tool guys.
From a development and future Red standpoint I think Turner has surpassed Stubbs on the prospects list.
wanderinredsfan Reply:
November 20th, 2008 at 11:44 am
Turner will never be able to steal 30+ bases and contend for a gold-glove, therefore I don’t think he is anywhere near surpassing Stubbs. The only way that happens is if Stubbs never learns to hit in the bigs, but I think he shown last season that he is on his way to becoming an above-average hitter as well. A good spring, and I think he platoons with Dickerson in CF. If he does extremely well in Cincy, he might just become the full-time CF by the end of the season.
Stubbs will be the next position player given an audition in the bigs, unless Valaika latches on at SS first.
Thursday, 20. November 2008
Corey Patterson has the potential to steal 30+ and win a gold glove. That didn’t work out.
Stubbs is going to need to hit, walk and stop striking out so much and to this point he hasn’t. Check AFL stats and his career inconsistency. Not the way a top prospect is supposed to develop.
Doug Gray Reply:
November 20th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
Stubbs doesn’t strike out a lot. He did when he was drafted and every year he has struck out less and less. That is how top prospects are supposed to develop, they are supposed to get better. Last year Drew struck out less, walked more and hit more line drives than he had in the previous two seasons. As long as he continues to progress, he will be fine. The comparison to Patterson isn’t exactly the same. Patterson never could hit because he would swing at everything, Stubbs doesn’t have that disadvantage.