Thinking About Justin Turner

Photo: Tim Evearitt/Chattanoogan

Photo: Tim Evearitt/Chattanoogan

Justin Turner was drafted in the 7th round of the 2006 draft out of Cal State Fullerton. While at Cal State Fullerton Turner hit .328/.397/.427 while striking out just 11.1% of the time and walking 7.2% of the time. He only hit 8 HR over the time he was there, but hit 61 doubles, showing some gap power. He was sent to Billings the year he was drafted and hit .338/.411/.511 while showing some good power with 16 doubles, 3 triples and 6 HR. At the end of the 2006 season I ranked him as the Reds 12th best prospect.

Turner found himself in Dayton in 2007 where he continued to be solid with the bat as he hit .311/.374/.446 while hitting 10 HR. One thing that jumped out though was the changes in his strikeout rate that jumped up to 14%.

2008 saw Turner begin the year in Sarasota, although he would spend more than half of his season in Chattanooga as he would hit .316/.384/.390 in Sarasota before the promotion. The drop in power was noticed in Sarasota, but most players see their power numbers drop off in the pitchers league. Once he got to Chattanooga the power returned and then some as he would hit .289/.359/.432 for the Lookouts with 8 HR in about half a years worth of at bats.  He also saw his walk rate rise to 9.6% on the year with a slight jump up to 15% in strikeouts.

Defensively Turner can handle second base well. His arm plays fine for second and his range is above average. He can turn the double play well from second (he helped turn 67 of them this year in just over 100 games) and doesn’t make a ton of errors as he posted a .980 fielding percentage this season.

Offensively Turner is a good bat control type of guy. He doesn’t strike out and he hits line drives all over the place. He controls the strikezone and will take a walk if the pitches aren’t there. Thanks to the lack of strikeouts and the line drives he will hit for a good average (career .310 hitter in the minors). The one question that remains about his game though is the power. For second base, he doesn’t need to hit for a ton of power, but he doesn’t project to hit many HR’s (10-15 peak I would say).  Lets look at the four things he can control at the plate: Strikeouts, Walks, Line Drives and Power:

  • Strikeouts – He is at a very good rate, below 16% last season.
  • Walks – Also a good rate at over 9% last year.
  • Line Drives – Posted a 21% line drive rate, also very good.
  • Power – His isolated power last year was just .135. That is a little below average.

Turner has been described as a ‘gritty baseball player’, just the type of guy who knows the game and plays smart while getting the best out of his abilities. He doesn’t really have any tools that standout, but he doesn’t do anything below average either. If his power rises just a little bit, he could project as a starting second baseman in the majors. I would expect him back in AA with Carolina this year at the start, but also see him finishing the year in AAA.