Sorry for no post on Saturday, I was in Michigan all day and just got home at 11:30.
John Sickels released his Reds Top 21 prospects tonight over at his website Minorleagueball.com.
1) Yonder Alonso, 1B, Grade B+: Love the walks, strong power, but sharp platoon split keeps him from higher grade at this time.
2) Todd Frazier, INF, Grade B: I like him. A nice solid hitter, maybe not a star, but should be productive. Only question is defense.3) Chris Valaika, SS, Grade B: I like him, too. Looks like a fine hitter, even without strong plate discipline. Probably more a 2B than SS.
4) Neftali Soto, 3B, Grade B: Very impressed with his long-term potential. Could use more patience, but strikeout rate isn’t bad and he’s very young.
5) Drew Stubbs, OF, Grade B-: Where did the power go? Other skills are coming along nicely.
6) Josh Roenicke, RHP, Grade B-: Very impressive arm, could be a closer perhaps.
7) Zach Stewart, RHP, Grade B-: Strong arm, command issues, could move fast in the pen. Maybe a C+?
8) Kyle Lotzkar, RHP, Grade B-: Might downgrade to C+. Very young, tons of potential, command and injury issues. This is one of my “intuition guys” though.
9) Daryl Thompson, RHP, Grade C+: He’s a solid pitcher if he can stay healthy, a big if. I’ve liked him since I shadow-drafted him out of high school.
10) Juan Francisco, 3B, Grade C+: Enormous power potential, very young, but dismal discipline. Did reduce strikeouts last year.
11) Ramon Ramirez, RHP, Grade C+: Could rank as high as 8 depending on what you want to emphasize. Small right-hander with a strong arm, took step forward in ’08.
12) Chris Dickerson, OF, Grade C+: Tremendous tools. He’s more a .250 hitter than a .300 guy, but with speed, power, and defense. Older prospect, which limits his grade.
13) Matt Maloney, LHP, Grade C+: Another guy I have liked for awhile, could be a decent strike-throwing fourth starter.
14) Chris Heisey, OF, Grade C+: Like the speed, gets on base, could be solid fourth outfielder.
15) Sean Henry, OF, Grade C+: A bit less speed than Heisey, but with more pop.
16) Dan Dorn, OF, Grade C+: Kills right-handers, could be a solid platoon bat.
17) Dallas Buck, RHP, Grade C+: Sleeper prospect acquired from Arizona, could surprise now that he’s further away from Tommy John.
18) Robert Manuel, RHP, Grade C+: One of several guys who could slot in nicely as a middle reliever.
19) Carlos Fisher, RHP, Grade C: Considered C+, another potential relief arm with ability.
20) Yorman Rodriguez, OF, Grade C: Too young and raw to rank higher in my system. Need to see some numbers first.
21) Juan Duran, OF, Grade C: Too young and raw to rank higher in my system. Need to see some numbers first.
He also has a list of other guys he considered. Go check it out. Sometime soon I will have a few questions about the list answered from John and will post it on the site when he gets back to me. This is going to take place of the Sunday discussion thread that I usually post.
Update
Here are a few questions John was nice enough to answer about the system in an email. He is also taking some question over on his site about the system.
You note the depth of the system, where does it compare to other teams?
Well I’ve only gotten 11 teams written up for the book so far, but I’d say it’s about middle of the pack right now. They don’t have as many impact guys as they did a year ago due to the graduations, but there is still considerable depth.
Of the guys who missed out on the top 21, who would be the guy you could see really breaking out next year?
If you want to go buy numbers, Jeremy Horst is a lefty with some very positive statistical markers, including excellent performance after he became a full-time starter in July. I would watch him. Mesoraco still has a chance to break through due to his youth. Pedro Viola can still be a very impressive reliever I think. Watch Byron Wiley, if he can keep the strikeouts under control he’s got potential.
With Homer Bailey graduating his prospect status, which pitcher outside of Lotzkar has the highest upside in the system even if he may not reach it?
Hmm….Sulbaran perhaps in terms of long-term projection.
Juan Francisco has some of the best raw power around but his lack of discipline is going to hold him back unless he improves upon it. Which other hitter in the system has one issue holding them back that may keep them from being a productive major league hitter?
Dorn’s platoon split is a big issue and prevents him from being a better prospect than he would otherwise be. The raw Latin guys like Duran and Yorman Rodriguez will have to show they can handle the strike zone, of course. Cozart is too pull-happy from everything I hear.
What puts Josh Roenicke so far ahead of a guy like Carlos Fisher in your mind?
Well I just think he has a somewhat higher upside, a fresh arm, and good athleticism for a pitcher. The Reds have several guys who could be very impressive relievers.
Which of the guys listed could make an impact at the major league level next year, even in a part time role (non September call ups)?
Valaika and Stubbs should be ready by September. Frazier and Alonso have more impact potential and aren’t too far behind but are probably more 2010 guys. Dickerson is ready now…I think he was over his head last year but I’d love to have him as a fourth outfielder. After that you get the bullpen types…Fisher, Roenicke, Ramirez. I know everyone thinks I’m nuts but I think Maloney could surprise some folks. And Thompson should be an effective contributor if he is healthy.
i find it interesting that he didn’t include hanigan or rosales. i like Heisey at 14 though!
They both were in the group that just missed, and could be added in eventually as this list is preliminary before his final list that will go into the book.
I’m curious where John would slot in Homer if he were to put him in the list.
Dan,
Sorry for approving your comments late. For some reason it was marked as Spam, so I had to go in and approve it. Hopefully it doesn’t happen from here on forward.
I wouldn’t put too much stock into this list. How can you leave Mesaraco, Cozart and Wood off?
I would have rather seen them than Yorman or Duran. Atleast they have shown the ability to play. Not saying the Latin connection is bad. I just know how Sickels likes guys who have done it before.
I’m starting to get bored with minorleagueball.com. The content has really dropped off over the last yr.
If I only went to 21, Wood would be left off of my list as well.
Wood was more of a last ditched effort to find another name.
Its the fact that Cozart and Rocco are left off the list. You can’t name 21 better than those 2.
Cozart is going to be servicable in the majors. Mesaraco was 19 in the MWL and pretty much holding his own. Not bad for a C in his first full season.
To be fair, Mesoraco spent more time in the league at age 20 than he did at 19. I still agree though with your premise, I did rate him in the top 10 while Sickels has him outside the top 20.
I am iffy on Wood bit Mesaraco definitiely. Cozart is a possibility if he continues to improve with the bat like the second half of ‘08 but what about Turner and Waring?
Turner is a fairly big omission, Waring not so much. Waring has a long way to go before he is in the MLB picture. He has to cut down on the strikeouts big time.
Who is John Sickles? What are his credentials? What is his track record in assessing talent? Please provide this list for other years or teams so that I may assess his credentials through the always reliable lens oif hindsite.
So the Reds have no ‘A’ prospects?
BTW , I share his concern over Stubbs. This guy was supposed to have ‘light tower power’ bur has shown only an ability to strike out at an alarming rate while generating little pop.
Sickels has been producing a relatively successful prospect book for years now. He isn’t the best, but he hasn’t been bad at all.
Still, I don’t see the concern with Stubbs power because its still there, he just wasn’t trying to use it much this year because he was trying to simply get used to his new swing and make more contact, which he did. Your concern over the strikesouts and the suggestion that he does so at an alarming rate is simply incorrect. He struck out less than 22% of the time he stepped to the plate this year, which is plenty acceptable, although slightly higher than average.
Stubbs power will begin to show itself next year as he has more experience under his belt with his new swing.
Doug, who do you think is the best at rating and projecting prospects? Have you ever studied that sort of thing?
I still think that Baseball America is the benchmark because they have been doing it for so long and doing it well for the most part. In the prospect game, everyone misses. Baseball America puts out the best book and content though for sure (and for now, but that could change).
Seeing this list made me think about:
What about dealing some of the spects to go after a guy like Peavy.
Send Bailey, 2 spects for Peavy. Padres are desperate to move him. He is the kind of guy I wouldn’t mind dealing some spects for. Check out the message board forum i created about this.
Thats if Peavy even wants to come to play in Cincinnati, which I doubt he would want to given their history of losing recently and the ballpark which would likely damage his money on the FA market when he does get there.
If Peavy would be willing to play in Cincy, we would have to start with Cueto. Something like Cueto, Bailey, and a second tier prospect is probably what it would have to look like. A trade like that is something that i might consider including Cueto who would be otherwise untouchable, but I might entertain it for Peavy. On the other hand, I have thought alot about this trade, and I almost feel like the reds could already have one of the most dominant 1 through 4 in the majors. Cueto showed some flashes of brilliance last year with some rookie mistakes, but certainly could be brilliant next year if things come together. So with the prospect of what could be with a 1-4 of Harang, Volquez, Cueto, and Arroyo…I say just keep it in tact how it is. (Aren’t we glad we didn’t trade for Bedard last year! but if he gets DFA’d…I might think of giving him a shot this offseason)
it wouldn’t start with Cueto. Look at the other deals Peavy was linked too. Vitters and Hanson were the best players mentioned.
The Padres are trying to cut cost this season. I don’t think Cueto has to be brought in the deal to get something done.
I’m curious as to who Peavy has as possible trading partners.
I kinda find it hard to believe that Alonso isn’t an A-, since he will likely be in the top 40 of all other major lists in baseball. MLB’s list ranks him at 34, while he is a 5-star prospect at Baseball Prospectus (which should translate to top-30 as well).
Also, I have a hard time believing that Stubbs isn’t a B+. Sure he hasn’t been a minor league super star offensively, but his defense and speed will play a long time in the majors. Seriously, take a look at all the centerfielders in baseball; not a very offensively productive position.
Defense matters the most for such an important position. Defense is under-rated by all of these lists.