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Doug thanks for doing this topic as it is one that I think a lot of Reds fans would really like to know the answer to (well at least this Reds fan anyway). Previously we mentioned in another thread that every organization has some sort of road map for the next three to four year throughout their minor league system and what that will produce for their major league system.
From the stuff you’ve outlined here in this article you can see the the Reds have a surplus of talent at these spots and it would be criminal not to maximize that talent so the Reds could be legitimate playoff contenders in the years to come. The idea in my mind is to not rush and just try to barely be contenders as soon as possible, but to put together a blueprint for a World Series Championship. Look how the Rays went about doing it and you can see a quick turnaround with young talent is possible.
So here is my ideal situation for what the Reds could do when all these guys are ready:
1. Convert Todd Frazier into a secondbaseman. He is the only guy mentioned capable of such a thing (and Valaika is a much more legit shortstop defensively than Frazier is).
2. When Frazier is ready trade Brandon Phillips.
3. When Francisco or Soto is ready trade Edwin Encarnacion. When both Francisco AND Soto are ready then someone else has to be traded too.
4. When Alonso is ready move Votto to leftfield.
So in theory as Doug stated Alonso, Francisco, and Frazier could all be ready to be in Cincinnati on opening day 2009. Add to that Valaika could be ready then as well.
So the Reds should be able to trade Phillips, EE, and possibly later Francisco or Soto (I much prefer to trade Francisco of the two but that can be debated later). Those are some very valuable assets that could maybe bring in a Brandon Webb (who is entering the final year of his contract and from the greater Cincinnati area). If need be the Reds could dangle the likes of Bailey, Thompson, or Maloney for a true #1 type of guy like Webb or Peavy. If those guys cannot be had then the Yankees might be willing to part with Phillip Hughes who looks to be on the outside looking in at their rotation as well.
The idea behind getting another guy like Webb or Peavy to stick at the front of your rotation is obviously you can never have enough starting pitchers especially true “ace” types. Also you get the benefit of getting someone a little younger than Harang and Arroyo. The Reds to me seem more likely to be real World Series contenders in 2011 or 2012 when the a fore mentioned young talent reaches the majors and matures at the major league level.
Seriously if trading some of those assets (Phillips, EE, Bailey, Francisco) could be made for Webb or Peavy the Reds would probably be legit contenders this year with their rotation alone. If not adding Hughes still keeps 2011 in range. I’m not sure what any of those pieces (Webb, Peavy, or Hughes) would exactly require but I would think the Reds four assets mentioned above could get it done somehow.
I should clarify I don’t think that the Reds could get multiple of those ace type in Webb, Peavy, or Hughes for the guys I suggested trading just that I think between some package with some combination of Phillips, EE, Bailey, or Francisco I think the Reds could get one of those three.
I’m along your line of thinking, Votto/Frazier/Francisco/EE/Dorn ends up in LF and will be a cost effective option that could blow up big talent wise. If anything you try to get a guy on a 1 year deal with teh depressed economy like Burrell or Bradley, but it would be a huge mistake to lock someone up long term unless they are a complete badass like Holiday. I’d rather go on a gamble with someone like Wigginton and move EE to LF that block the guys we have coming up. They are vital to the long term success over a shakey competitive team at best in 2009. If they are in it at the deadline, there are always trade possibilites.
Right I agree for 2009 the leftfield option should be a one year stop gap type measure unless a player the calibur of Holiday comes along.
http://sports.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=24204
Here was an interesting discuss about Peavy. Is he a product of Petco? Last year his home and road stats where really wide.
It is hard to imagine how beneficial that park is. .80 park factor is crazy and that Petco has a higher strikeout rate.
So on the Flip side would Giles be a good choice for LF. The Padres seem to be still dumping payroll.
Even his away stats are as good or better than Aaron Harang, so its not like he’s chopped liver away from Petco
I did not say he was chopped liver on the road. But career road ERA 3.80 vs Petco 2.66. If he was somewhere else what would his value be. I think it is an interesting discussion.
Probably in the middle. Most guys play better at home than on the road, so short of him coming to Cincinnati/Colorado/Chicago AL, the park factor isn’t nearly as much that it would cause dramatic rises.
Peavy is good no matter where he is…. but his home park does make his overall numbers look better than they would be other places. Still, the guy went into Colorado and dominated them 4 times this year.
And Brian Giles is the most underrated player in baseball. He would absolutely turn this teams offense around. If we could get him, we would make huge strides offensively.
Wow Doug
I am surprised that you are that high on Giles.
So is he your ideal choice for LF of the options that maybe available?
Depending on what it would take to get him, but Brian Giles was the best right fielder in baseball last year. He would be an ideal option for 1 year, but he isn’t going to come play in Cincinnati and as a 10-5 guy he controls where he goes.
Giles posted a 136 OPS+ last year. The Reds best was Votto at 124…. thats how good Giles bat was. Oh, and he was also a plus defender in RF.
In the limited time I have paid attention to him and read other GM’s quotes about him, I don’t think I trust anything that comes out of Jocketty’s mouth to the press. He is the anti-Krivsky. He talks very openly, but it’s impossible to discern the truth from the smokescreen.
I get the feeling the Reds are perfectly aware of the upcoming young guys. Even Castellini talked about the young talent on the team and the “young kids coming up behind them”. That said, I don’t think you’ll see any long-term contract signings. You’ll either see younger guys acquired that could still be traded down the line or 1 or 2 “stop-gap” type guys.
From the article, Walt’s comment about Dye was “We’re thinking more long-term (Dye is 34) and on the final year of his contract.” I do not read that as they are looking for a long-term solution from the market, but that Dye would not be a long-term solution because he is older and has only one year left on his contract. It doesn’t say anywhere the Reds are looking outside to find a long term solution. That’s not to say they won’t, but I read it more that the long term solution is someone young with some years left under the Reds control. Our upcoming crop is more likely to fill that than someone from the outside.
They need, however, a short-term solution for 2009 for left field since our crop won’t be ready to harvest. I think they should go talk with the Brewers about Mike Cameron, who is evidently available. Put him and his right-handed bat out in center, platoon Dickerson and whoever in left (Hairston/Baldelli/Kapler/ Keppinger/etc.) and that would be a pretty good lineup. I wonder if they would take one of our reliever prospects (Roenicke), one of Maloney or Ramirez, and someone like Dorn as a package for Cameron.
I’ve also thought about Cameron. He’s signed for one year at $10 million, and I’ve always liked him. He’s a right-handed bat – with some pop – and I think still a good defensive CF.
I think the package you named is too much for 1 year of Cameron though.
What about just Dickerson for Cameron? (Dickerson may actually be similar to Melky Cabrera, who’s been rumored in the Cameron deal.)
Or Maloney and some minor league OF?
After a little more research, I came to the same conclusion that the package I suggested was a little rich. I also intended the Brewers to throw in some funds to help with the $10 million. Given the Brewers lack of outfielders, the Reds would probably have to give up Dickerson and I don’t think I like that. Back to the drawing board!
Did anybody notice that baseball america ripped Mesoraco today?
Nope…. what did I miss?
I actually just went and saw it. Not to worried, he just needs to keep improving.
I’m hoping instructionals went well for him because he’s a little old for a high school draftee and can’t afford to repeat too many levels.
He did win the MVP award, so I have to assume it went pretty well for him.
I hate one year rentals. It’s far better to pay up in prospects and cash for a real player like Holliday provided you can snooker Boras into a long term deal ( highly unlikely). That having been said, The Reds have enough good prospects and tradeable assets ( E5E5,etc) to get another pitcher and a third sacker who won’t endanger the first base fans.
Tonight on the Hot Stove League both Marty and Tom liked the idea of getting Wiggington. They describe the former Astro as “one tough guy” that would “take care of things in the locker room” and they also said he is very competitive. I’m paraphasing Marty and Tom but those are pretty close.
Of interest is that Marty said if the Reds were to get Wigginton he would most likely play left field since “he played some left field for the Astro’s”. They both felt like he could easily hit around 25 hrs and be a run producer.
Wiggington sounds like the kinda guy we need in our lineup AND in our locker room.
I am all for getting Wigginton, but it doesn’t sound like Walt is ready to pay what he has been asking for. If he could keep up his stats of the past two seasons over a full year, he could be a solid addition to our lineup.
he would be a great pickup, but i dont want him to be our right handed number 4 hitter
he would be great to completely replace EE with
Do you want Jermaine Dye to be our #4 hitter? Wigginton had better numbers than Dye did last year, just in a smaller sample.
dye has more power thats the only reason i would take him in the 4 hole
He doesn’t really though. He just plays in a more hitter friendly park than GABP while Wigginton played in a pitchers park.
Doug
Wiggington played in Minute Maid last year which is not a pitcher’s park. US Cell was 2nd and Minute Maid 8th but Minute Maid is more friendly for H, 2B and 3B last year.
So it maybe more of a wash. The thing that worries me is Wiggington only effective for 110g like Freel was. Also this was a career high production for Wiggington. I feel Dye is a safer bet.
Another fear is Wiggington Road/Home .734/.921 and Left/Right .957/.780 splits both last year and last threes year combined.
Dye was at least close Home/Road .932/869
He is also fairly balenced lefty/righty .978/.868
It is Dyes ability to be the same force no matter what is what makes him special and a #4 hitter
Minute Maid has a 3 year park factor of 98 (with 100 being average).
The HR factor the last three years for Minute Maid
2006 1.171
2007 1.049
2008 1.155
Even if you say for arguments sake US is much better than Minute Maid (which has an offensive rep)
That makes Dyes splits even more remarkable than Wiggington. Hit hits as well on the road as home where wiggington stinks on the road.
I do not know about you but I have seen enough non complete hitters on the Reds like Wiggington.
yea but last year dye hit 34 and wigginton hit 23, that’s a big difference regardless of the park.
Dye had a lot more at bats, and even more in a park that allows HRs. Dye hit a HR every 17 at bats…. Wigginton hit a HR every 16 at bats.
I like the idea of getting Wigginton since he wouldn’t cost the Reds any young players, and would be cheaper than Dye. Nady would be a nice pickup as well, although he would take a few prospects to acquire (as the Yankees would want to recoup equivalent talent to what they gave to get him from Pittsburgh). Guys like Conor Jackson or Matt Murton might be an option as well. While they’re not big power hitters, they make solid contact and get on base.
Ideally the Reds would acquire 2 outfielders, one to start in left and bolster the offense, the other to play good defense on the corners and possibly platoon with Bruce against tough lefties if he continues to struggle against them.
I’m not sold on Wigginton being our run producer. And I surely wouldn’t pay the $6MM/yr or so, that it would take to sign him.
I still believe that Rivera would be a better signing. Let him get 450+ AB’s as the everyday LF and I think he puts up 25HR/30DB/80+RBI at about half of what Wiggy would cost/yr.
While I agree that Rivera is likely to put up those numbers and make half of what Wiggy would cost, Wiggy would still be a great buy for that much money.
Doug – can you find out what has happened to Adam Rosales? He hasn’t appeared in a game for over a week. Has he called it a year and headed home to rest before ST? I see Chris Heisey is still doing well also.
Rosales was in town for Redsfest, so he could be done for the year or he may have just taken the week off for Redsfest.
Thanks!
I have been on the Dorn bandwagon for a while and now and think he is the guy that will win the job. The only reason he might now is that he bats from the left side of the plate. I think the Reds would love to have a RH hitter in LF. But, I predict that Dorn will be healthy this year and knock the cover off the ball at Triple A and really turn Walt’s head. I mean this guy could easily hit .275 + with 30 + HR’s this year in Triple A.
Anyone else here Baldelli was misdiagnosed???
Blurp on MLBTradeRumors says his condition is ‘highly treatable”…
He is a heck of a talent. I would love to see WJ take a shot at signing him for a platoon in CF/4# OF…And if it is highly treatable…Maybe we could get 120games/yr out of him…
But if true, his market value probably just way up in price.
I really don’t see it driving his price up at all this year, as he has still yet to prive that he can stay healthy over a full year. He is a prime candidate for a 1 year deal wherever he lands since if he can stay healthy over that 1 year and produce, he could be in line for a decent sized payday the eyar after that.
I could see the outfielder market staying quiet until February. No one seems to want to flinch. Once Texeira and Manny choose a team, the dominos will start to fall, but there is going to be someone left when the dust clears that the Reds could maybe get for 1 year and relatively cheap, i.e. Burrell.
Either go high (Texeira) or low (Rivera). Anything in between is wasting money (Burrell). The plan for 2010:
-CF will continue to be a question
-Can Votto play third? Otherwise, Walt has to trade Francisco or Alonso. The Reds’ stockpiling of LF and 1B is complicating the process of putting a complete team on the field. If Homer Bailey can’t get you one year of Jermaine Dye, it seems the best option is to have your young guys play instead of trading them for guys you have to pay.
-Votto in LF unless Alonso is traded, then Francisco in LF.
-Valaika at SS
-Catcher still ?
Could be a decent team. I do have optimism that three of our four best bats are a year away (Alonso, Francisco, Valaika + Frazier) which could boost this team to at least league average at two positions, bringing the overall offensive talent to 75%.
The Reds are fortunate to have a bunch of solid prospects for corner IF/possible corner OF spots, but I don’t want to have to count on any of them for production in the next two years (with the possible exception of Alonso).
I think they need to bring in a veteran who’s either only got one or two years on an existing deal in trade, or sign someone to a deal no longer than two years with a possible third year/buyout. Preferably a guy who’s hit in the middle of the order for a decent team before, maybe someone with some playoff experience.
Personally, I’d like that guy to also upgrade the defense at 3B with LF being the fall back (or an additional player). E5 is not a longterm member of this team IMO, at any position.
It’s a tough balance between short term competitive needs, payroll, and not blocking the good young guys. But it’s a nice problem to have, and better than a lot of organizations are dealing with.
I’m really positive about where this franchise is going……
I’m glad to see Laynce Nix signed to a minor league contract. He could work into the mix.
I’m in favor of signing Wigginton, and playing him at 3B, and moving EE to LF.
I’m opposed to trading Bailey for Dye. Maybe Thompson for him and if the White Sox eat most of Dye’s contract.
If Hairston doesn’t sign, I’m somewhat favorable to the idea of signing Taveras and platooning him with Dickerson. They would make a great left/right centerfield platoon and leadoff combination.
Nothing about Taveras is a good idea except not signing him. guys that don’t walk and cant hit the ball out of the infield and don’t play plus defense really don’t bring anything to the table thats actually useful on the baseball field.
Doug,
What makes you say Taveras can’t play defense. If it’s how he played in the second half of last season, he was gutting it out with a leg injury for a long period of time. A lot of that was because Spilbroughs was hurt too. PECOTA had him as a slightly plus defender prior to last season, and I’d thought that was his reputation.
His hitting was awful at the beginning of the season, but he hit better in the second half (more like the season before).
I don’t like being the Taveras defender, but this guy is not Corey Patterson. I think a .350 OBP is attainable, regardless of .SLG, and 60+ steals and break even D in CF has value on this team IMO.
Taveras is maybe slightly above average defensively, but he isn’t a plus defender. As for him not being Corey Patterson, you are right. He isn’t as good as Patterson.
Taveras won’t get on base at a .350 clip. He has done it once and it was an extremely fluky season where he hit .320 and hasn’t come close to repeating that. He also won’t steal 60 bags again. He had never stolen 35 bases in a season prior to last year, I don’t really think he is going to all of a sudden go out and steal 60 bags.
Simply put, the only value that he brings to a team is his speed. If he was the 25th man on the roster and got 50 at bats all year and was a pinch runner, then he has value. If he is used in any other way he hurts your team.
Tavaras is not even as good as Patterson. Patterson had more to offer including plus D and more pop.
.350 is very unlikely considering he has no pop. GABP has less room for hits so expect lower BA and even lower slugging. He brings nothing more to the table than Norris Hopper who we already have. Plus Tavares already has injury concerms with that leg which is his only asset
Corey Patterson was horrible last year, there’s no way he added more value to the Reds than Taveras added to Rockies.
His bat may never warrant even platoon play. Without his speed, he’s a useless player. I agree with all of that.
But, he was stealing bases at will last season before the leg injury. I refuse to believe he is not capable of stealing at least 50 bases if he plays enough.
It’s obvious I’m in the minority, but I like the guy. But I also hated Dunn and hated Sean Casey, so I’m used to it.
Great stuff here Doug by the way……
Last year, no…. for their careers Corey Patterson has been a relatively significant better hitter than Willy Taveras and that is really saying something.
Still, last year Taveras was worse than what should be expected out of a AAA scrub called up to play in the majors.
Sounds like the Reds are definitely interested in Taveras. According to the Enquirer, the Reds called him as soon as he became a free agent last week.
One thing he brings to the table, beside speed, is great range in center field. That’s worth at least one hit a game.
Last year, the guy more than doubled his SB total and cut down on his CS. A speedster on the basepath can completely unnerve a starting pitcher.
But it’s mute point because the Red Sox, Yankees, White Sox and a few other teams are also interested in him.
Except his defense has never been considered more than slightly above average out there. No ones defense is worth at least 1 hit a game, that would make someone worth 162 hits more than someone else, and thats just unfathomable. At best the difference between the absolute best and absolute worst at any given position for every day guys is about 45 plays.
There are alot of intangibles beyond the numbers. That’s what makes baseball so great. As soon as you boil it down to a mathematical equation, it bubbles up and blows all the equations into hyperspace.
Baseball is as much about instinct and intuition as it is about statistics.