Drew Stubbs came into 2009 after a solid year between three levels. He spent most of the season in the Louisville Bats leadoff spot, but in August Willy Taveras went down with an injury the Reds called Stubbs up and he stayed for the remainder of the season.
| PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | BB% | K% | IsoP |
| 668 | 591 | 84 | 158 | 30 | 3 | 11 | 56 | 56 | 12 | 66 | 153 | .267 | .344 | .384 | 9.9% | 22.9% | .117 |
Stubbs got off to slow start in April with a .256 average before rebounding in May with a .311 average. June was another slow month for Stubbs as his average dipped down to a .235. In July Stubbs made another rebound as he hit .290. August was slow while in the minors for Stubbs, and was not much better in 12 games in the majors. However September was a much better month for him as he hit .277/.344/.445. Lets look at how his season looked after each game.
Stubbs power dropped down big time after the few month and a half of the season before getting a boost at the end of the year once he reached Cincinnati. Here is how it looks with his peripheral stats.
Stubbs saw his strikeout rate go up toward the end of the year once he reached the majors, but seemed to be steady once finding his average rate. The walk rate did go down for most of the season, despite that though it did stay above average all season.
Here is his spray chart for both AAA and the Majors.
Doug,
First Post. Long time reader. What do you feel is Drew Stubbs offensive numbers? I am a huge fan of Stubbs but he seemed to look completely dominated by some pitchers last year (high K’s). Also, do you know where to find out how many strikes were swinging vs. called?
Taylor
Chris,
Stubbs is going to strike out, but I highly doubt he strikes out at Adam Dunn type rates. He is probably a 140-150K per season guy right now, which puts him right behind Votto and Bruce.
As for his called strike/vs swinging strikes, you can get the info for his major league data at pitchfx.texasleaguers.com. For the minor league stuff, I could look it up in my database but I don’t have it at hand right now.
Given that Stubbs plays CF he will be the leadoff hitter in a Dusty Baker lineup. But as Stubbs matures as a player and settles into whatever style of hitter he becomes where does everyone feel is the best spot in the lineup for him to hit.
I think I would prefer for the Reds to have a more prototypical lead-off hitter (especially this year as Stubbs will still be learning lots and could benefit from hitting lower in the order as he learns how to increase his OBP.). But even in the long run I’m not sure if the Reds wouldn’t be hoping that a speedy shortstop with great plate discipline were to develop (as a matter of fact I’ll go out back right now and pick one off a tree for them. I keep my shortstop tree right next to my catcher tree and my Ben Franklin tree).
Beard:
Long-term, I don’t see Stubbs as a leadoff hitter, either. He hasn’t proven that he can make enough contact. I just don’t see him being any better than a .250 – .260 hitter in the majors. And I don’t think Baker is doing him any favors by batting him leadoff at this stage of his career. As Stubbs develops, I see him as a 6 or 7-hole hitter on a team filled 6 and 7-hole hitters.
I can definitely see Stubbs as a leadoff hitter. He has a good eye so he sees a lot of pitches, he can take a walk and keep his OBP at or above .350, he can steal a base to get into scoring position and he has enough power to get him into scoring position with doubles and triples. I would love to see his contact rate go up, but I do think he can develop that.
I think Doug said it the other day. Strike-outs don’t necesarily hurt a leadoff hitter. If Stubbs were to start each game by seeing 6 pitches before striking out, that’s a lot better than a groundout after one. If he gets his walk rate back to where it was in the minors and had a 350 OBP, then I think he would be a good leadof hitter even with a slightly lower than ideal average.
I see him doing well as a leadoff hiter. He walks an OK amount and keeps his OBP at .340-.350. He has the speed to force throing and fielding errors. He works counts OK for a rookie (something I expect will improve further).
He may not make it as a big league hitter, but I do believe the place for him is a 1 or 2 hitter and have him swim or sink.
I like him as a lead off hitter but if he isnt going to lead off he is a 6-7 hole hitter. He would be a terrible fit in the 2 hole, where you normaly want a high contact hitter that can move runners over. In the long run he is a lead off hitter unless they get a better one, i also feel like as a hitter his value is at its highest in the lead off spot.
High contact guys in the #2 spot generally hit into a LOT of double plays as well. Its a double edged sword with that type of hitter in the #2 spot.
Why does one need to make contact at the leadoff spot? One needs to get on base, but walking 60-70 times a year goes a long way to making up for strikeouts.
Which other Reds OBP monster should be leading off?
Rolen? Votto? oops, there aren’t any
It’s why Chris Dickerson should start on this team (either in LF or CF) and lead-off
Dickerson walks a lot, but if his BABIP goes to something more reasonable like .310, his OBP dips big time. Right now, he is essentially Drew Stubbs without as much raw power and lesser but still good defense. I would love to see both guys in the lineup most days at a combo in the 1 and 2 spots. Pitchers would be at 10 pitches just about every time before they get to Votto.
Depending on his power, #2, #5 or #6 seems like good spots if his power develops. If it doesn’t #1 or #2 seem like ideal spots. He should walk enough to post a .340 OBP over a full season or higher.
Doug, do you think Drew Stubbs compares well to Curtis Granderson? I wouldn’t call either a “prototypical” leadoff hitter but how many of those guys are out there?
I think that could be his ceiling, yes. Right now though, Granderson has more game power than Stubbs. But Granderson, like Stubbs, at age 24/25 had very similar K and BB numbers (9.5% BB rate, slightly lower than Stubbs – 25.7% K rate, slightly higher than Stubbs). Granderson had the game power advantage at the time, but as we have seen, Stubbs clearly has above average power when he is swinging right.
Granderson has had a much better career in the minors, but hopefully their debut’s, which were similar in age and performance, in mlb are indicative of Stubbs living up to his billing.
Do you think Stubbs will ever come up with 30-30 seasons? From reports he seems to have at least above average raw power and he will be playing half of his games in GABP. There is a lot to love about the power/speed/plate discipline/defense package there.
I will go with no. Its a real stretch to say someone will do it before they have ever come close to doing it. I do think Stubbs has some 20-20 seasons in him though for sure.
On this Reds team as currently constructed, I’d go with Frazier’s higher OBP at leadoff on days he’s playing, and Dickerson the rest of the time. Stubbs is an ideal #6-7 hitter—got some pop to drive in the big boys and his speed can help turn over the lineup.
And for goodness sake, put Rolen in the #2 hole. Cabrera should bat eighth.
Frazier and Stubbs have roughly the same minor league OBP, so in that case I’d go with Stubbs due to his ability to get in scoring position through the steal.
I do believe Dickerson should be lead off on days he plays though. The reason being, that he will most likely play on days when the Reds are facing a tough righty. His nearly .380 OBP against righty’s would be great at the top of the lineup on those days. I would still put Stubbs second though to let him see more fastballs with the protection of Votto behind him.
I like Rolen at #2, but I also like him at #4. He may not be the prototypical clean up hitter, but he will be able to put the bat on the ball to drive runs in.
The nice thing about Rolen at #4 is it keeps Phillips out of that spot.
The bad thing about Rolen in the #4 spot is he lacks power big time.
Doug given you choice between Rolen and Phillips in the #4 spot (bc that is the only choice Dusty can rationalize to himself and therefore his perception becomes our reality) who would you prefer in the #4 spot?
At the same time you are ignoring Fraziers ability to get into scoring position via the extra base hit.
IF Heisey makes the team and both Heisey and Stubbs continue in the starting line-up…I could see Heisey leading off by the middle of the year so long has his walk rate returns to where it was earlier in 2009 and he outright wins the LF position sometime in 2010. If it is a platoon, Stubbs will stay leading off because I don’t lie paltooning the lead-off hitter and Dickerson is not a lead-off hitter. I would rather have Stubbs in the 7 or 8 hole than Heisey.
Joe,
Despite what Walt and company say, HZ is NOT making the team out of spring training. Frazier too. They both have less than 250 AB’s in AAA and need a few months to work on some things there. Besides, the Reds should see what Balentien/Gomes offers and then possibly move one or both at the deadline if they feel the guys in L’Ville are ready
I have a really bad feeling that Laynce Nix is going north with the club this year.
What would make that bad (depending on other choices of course)?
For one, it’d mean that the Reds didn’t get Gomes, whom i’d like to see platoon with Dickerson. And two, he just isn’t a good hitter and I think Dusty would find a way to give him more playing time than he should get. I’d rather see Josh Anderson be the 5th outfielder if the Reds don’t add anybody else.
I guess you will just have to wait until April. Any idea that Heisey has no chance of making the team is just ignorant speculation. I am certainly not saying that he is guaranteed a spot, but to think that he doesn’t stand a chance is completely opposite of everything that has been said by the reds so far this offseason.