2009 Season in Review: Drew Stubbs Doug Gray February 4, 2010 94 Comments Drew Stubbs came into 2009 after a solid year between three levels. He spent most of the season in the Louisville Bats leadoff spot, but in August Willy Taveras went down with an injury the Reds called Stubbs up and he stayed for the remainder of the season. PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG BB% K% IsoP 668 591 84 158 30 3 11 56 56 12 66 153 .267 .344 .384 9.9% 22.9% .117 Stubbs got off to slow start in April with a .256 average before rebounding in May with a .311 average. June was another slow month for Stubbs as his average dipped down to a .235. In July Stubbs made another rebound as he hit .290. August was slow while in the minors for Stubbs, and was not much better in 12 games in the majors. However September was a much better month for him as he hit .277/.344/.445. Lets look at how his season looked after each game. Stubbs power dropped down big time after the few month and a half of the season before getting a boost at the end of the year once he reached Cincinnati. Here is how it looks with his peripheral stats. Stubbs saw his strikeout rate go up toward the end of the year once he reached the majors, but seemed to be steady once finding his average rate. The walk rate did go down for most of the season, despite that though it did stay above average all season. Here is his spray chart for both AAA and the Majors. 94 Responses Chris Taylor February 4, 2010 Doug, First Post. Long time reader. What do you feel is Drew Stubbs offensive numbers? I am a huge fan of Stubbs but he seemed to look completely dominated by some pitchers last year (high K’s). Also, do you know where to find out how many strikes were swinging vs. called? Taylor Doug Gray February 4, 2010 Chris, Stubbs is going to strike out, but I highly doubt he strikes out at Adam Dunn type rates. He is probably a 140-150K per season guy right now, which puts him right behind Votto and Bruce. As for his called strike/vs swinging strikes, you can get the info for his major league data at pitchfx.texasleaguers.com. For the minor league stuff, I could look it up in my database but I don’t have it at hand right now. Beard February 4, 2010 Given that Stubbs plays CF he will be the leadoff hitter in a Dusty Baker lineup. But as Stubbs matures as a player and settles into whatever style of hitter he becomes where does everyone feel is the best spot in the lineup for him to hit. I think I would prefer for the Reds to have a more prototypical lead-off hitter (especially this year as Stubbs will still be learning lots and could benefit from hitting lower in the order as he learns how to increase his OBP.). But even in the long run I’m not sure if the Reds wouldn’t be hoping that a speedy shortstop with great plate discipline were to develop (as a matter of fact I’ll go out back right now and pick one off a tree for them. I keep my shortstop tree right next to my catcher tree and my Ben Franklin tree). Tom February 4, 2010 Beard: Long-term, I don’t see Stubbs as a leadoff hitter, either. He hasn’t proven that he can make enough contact. I just don’t see him being any better than a .250 – .260 hitter in the majors. And I don’t think Baker is doing him any favors by batting him leadoff at this stage of his career. As Stubbs develops, I see him as a 6 or 7-hole hitter on a team filled 6 and 7-hole hitters. Mike in RI February 4, 2010 I can definitely see Stubbs as a leadoff hitter. He has a good eye so he sees a lot of pitches, he can take a walk and keep his OBP at or above .350, he can steal a base to get into scoring position and he has enough power to get him into scoring position with doubles and triples. I would love to see his contact rate go up, but I do think he can develop that. stew February 4, 2010 I think Doug said it the other day. Strike-outs don’t necesarily hurt a leadoff hitter. If Stubbs were to start each game by seeing 6 pitches before striking out, that’s a lot better than a groundout after one. If he gets his walk rate back to where it was in the minors and had a 350 OBP, then I think he would be a good leadof hitter even with a slightly lower than ideal average. Foxbud February 4, 2010 I see him doing well as a leadoff hiter. He walks an OK amount and keeps his OBP at .340-.350. He has the speed to force throing and fielding errors. He works counts OK for a rookie (something I expect will improve further). He may not make it as a big league hitter, but I do believe the place for him is a 1 or 2 hitter and have him swim or sink. KyWilson1 February 4, 2010 I like him as a lead off hitter but if he isnt going to lead off he is a 6-7 hole hitter. He would be a terrible fit in the 2 hole, where you normaly want a high contact hitter that can move runners over. In the long run he is a lead off hitter unless they get a better one, i also feel like as a hitter his value is at its highest in the lead off spot. Doug Gray February 4, 2010 High contact guys in the #2 spot generally hit into a LOT of double plays as well. Its a double edged sword with that type of hitter in the #2 spot. Doug Gray February 4, 2010 Why does one need to make contact at the leadoff spot? One needs to get on base, but walking 60-70 times a year goes a long way to making up for strikeouts. timb February 4, 2010 Which other Reds OBP monster should be leading off? Rolen? Votto? oops, there aren’t any It’s why Chris Dickerson should start on this team (either in LF or CF) and lead-off Doug Gray February 4, 2010 Dickerson walks a lot, but if his BABIP goes to something more reasonable like .310, his OBP dips big time. Right now, he is essentially Drew Stubbs without as much raw power and lesser but still good defense. I would love to see both guys in the lineup most days at a combo in the 1 and 2 spots. Pitchers would be at 10 pitches just about every time before they get to Votto. Doug Gray February 4, 2010 Depending on his power, #2, #5 or #6 seems like good spots if his power develops. If it doesn’t #1 or #2 seem like ideal spots. He should walk enough to post a .340 OBP over a full season or higher. Rick D in Chicago February 4, 2010 Doug, do you think Drew Stubbs compares well to Curtis Granderson? I wouldn’t call either a “prototypical” leadoff hitter but how many of those guys are out there? Doug Gray February 4, 2010 I think that could be his ceiling, yes. Right now though, Granderson has more game power than Stubbs. But Granderson, like Stubbs, at age 24/25 had very similar K and BB numbers (9.5% BB rate, slightly lower than Stubbs – 25.7% K rate, slightly higher than Stubbs). Granderson had the game power advantage at the time, but as we have seen, Stubbs clearly has above average power when he is swinging right. mdccclxix February 4, 2010 Granderson has had a much better career in the minors, but hopefully their debut’s, which were similar in age and performance, in mlb are indicative of Stubbs living up to his billing. Kyle February 4, 2010 Do you think Stubbs will ever come up with 30-30 seasons? From reports he seems to have at least above average raw power and he will be playing half of his games in GABP. There is a lot to love about the power/speed/plate discipline/defense package there. Doug Gray February 4, 2010 I will go with no. Its a real stretch to say someone will do it before they have ever come close to doing it. I do think Stubbs has some 20-20 seasons in him though for sure. mdccclxix February 4, 2010 watching him play last year with the Reds made you wonder how that nice stroke could have ever struggled so much to hit 20 bombs a year. It looked quite effortless. Sultan of Swaff February 4, 2010 On this Reds team as currently constructed, I’d go with Frazier’s higher OBP at leadoff on days he’s playing, and Dickerson the rest of the time. Stubbs is an ideal #6-7 hitter—got some pop to drive in the big boys and his speed can help turn over the lineup. And for goodness sake, put Rolen in the #2 hole. Cabrera should bat eighth. Mike in RI February 4, 2010 Frazier and Stubbs have roughly the same minor league OBP, so in that case I’d go with Stubbs due to his ability to get in scoring position through the steal. I do believe Dickerson should be lead off on days he plays though. The reason being, that he will most likely play on days when the Reds are facing a tough righty. His nearly .380 OBP against righty’s would be great at the top of the lineup on those days. I would still put Stubbs second though to let him see more fastballs with the protection of Votto behind him. I like Rolen at #2, but I also like him at #4. He may not be the prototypical clean up hitter, but he will be able to put the bat on the ball to drive runs in. Beard February 4, 2010 The nice thing about Rolen at #4 is it keeps Phillips out of that spot. Doug Gray February 4, 2010 The bad thing about Rolen in the #4 spot is he lacks power big time. Beard February 4, 2010 Doug given you choice between Rolen and Phillips in the #4 spot (bc that is the only choice Dusty can rationalize to himself and therefore his perception becomes our reality) who would you prefer in the #4 spot? Doug Gray February 4, 2010 Rolen 4, Bruce 5 and Phillips 6. OBP comes first for me. Doug Gray February 4, 2010 At the same time you are ignoring Fraziers ability to get into scoring position via the extra base hit. Joe February 4, 2010 IF Heisey makes the team and both Heisey and Stubbs continue in the starting line-up…I could see Heisey leading off by the middle of the year so long has his walk rate returns to where it was earlier in 2009 and he outright wins the LF position sometime in 2010. If it is a platoon, Stubbs will stay leading off because I don’t lie paltooning the lead-off hitter and Dickerson is not a lead-off hitter. I would rather have Stubbs in the 7 or 8 hole than Heisey. Tim February 4, 2010 Joe, Despite what Walt and company say, HZ is NOT making the team out of spring training. Frazier too. They both have less than 250 AB’s in AAA and need a few months to work on some things there. Besides, the Reds should see what Balentien/Gomes offers and then possibly move one or both at the deadline if they feel the guys in L’Ville are ready Kyle February 4, 2010 I have a really bad feeling that Laynce Nix is going north with the club this year. Doug Gray February 4, 2010 What would make that bad (depending on other choices of course)? Kyle February 4, 2010 For one, it’d mean that the Reds didn’t get Gomes, whom i’d like to see platoon with Dickerson. And two, he just isn’t a good hitter and I think Dusty would find a way to give him more playing time than he should get. I’d rather see Josh Anderson be the 5th outfielder if the Reds don’t add anybody else. coltholt February 4, 2010 I guess you will just have to wait until April. Any idea that Heisey has no chance of making the team is just ignorant speculation. I am certainly not saying that he is guaranteed a spot, but to think that he doesn’t stand a chance is completely opposite of everything that has been said by the reds so far this offseason. Doug Gray February 4, 2010 I have to agree with him though. I think there is less than a 10% chance Heisey makes the team out of spring training. Bruce, Stubbs and Dickerson seem like locks. That means 2 spots left go to Balentien, Heisey, Gomes or another NRI. Balentien leaves the team if he doesn’t make it. Gomes is a guy from last year that the Reds are familiar with. It just seems stacked up against Heisey to break with the team. DaveCT February 4, 2010 I’d say it would be a mistake not to see what Balentien can do before risking him to waivers. He certainly is a high risk/high gain type of prospect. But his kind right handed power doesn’t come by every day. Doug Gray February 4, 2010 Agreed. Its not like he sucked as a Red last year either. The guy hit .264/.352/.427 with above average outfield defense. That is a guy you absolutely hold onto. He is 5 months older than Chris Heisey is and held his own at the MLB level last season. You just can’t let him go without seeing what he can do. Fortunately I think the Reds also know that. coltholt February 5, 2010 You don’t have to let him go. My ideal pick for the outfield (assuming that Gomes is not signed, I have conceded that if Gomes is in, Heisey is out). Bruce, Stubbs, Heisey/Dickerson platoon in LF, and Balentien as the fifth man. Nothing has shown any reason to believe that Balentien is veiwed in front of Heisey for starting. Secondly, the Taveras trade further justifies that they want that fifth outfield slot available to Balentien. So, I disagree with the proposition that if Heisey starts, the Reds have no choice but to Designate Balentien. Joe February 5, 2010 There is a good possibly your right Coltholt. The only question is will Walt want a lefty hitter (Nix or someone else) over Balentien Joe February 4, 2010 Balentien is not ever going to amount to anything…there is a reason Seattle gae up on him and nothing is proving that the change in scenery is making a difference. All signs point to us resigning Gomes and it being a Gomes/Dickerson LF platoon. I hope not. If Heisey has a very hot spring he will stat the season with the Reds. If he hits .300 or less or the Reds sign Gomes, Heisey will be sent to Louisville until at least the end of May. Doug Gray February 4, 2010 I will strongly disagree Joe. While in Seattle Balentien struggled with his plate discipline. When he came to Cincinnati he was much better in the department and it translated over to his stat line as well. I think that there is something there that shows that. Joe February 4, 2010 Balentein is not as good of a prospect as Heisey, frazier or Francisco and his day are numberred. Doug Gray February 4, 2010 I will disagree there. Frazier, no. Heisey and Francisco? Yeah, he is more valuable in my mind that those two guys. Joe February 4, 2010 …and I disagree with you….wish we could wager….over time I bet I turn out to be right on this one too. Doug Gray February 4, 2010 The problem is you are suggesting what they will do. Not what they should do. Joe February 4, 2010 where’s the problem??? I think Walt has engineered mor World Championship teams than you have….so, in this case would and should are the same. hog February 4, 2010 i ask a question about 4 hours ago no ans do you think we have a major league catcher in the reds minor leaguen Randy in Chatt February 4, 2010 Doug answered that question at 1:59pm today on the other post. Joe February 4, 2010 I hope the Reds are scouring what is left of the free agent list to see if they can find a bargain for a left handed bat off the bench. There has to be someone to compete with Nix for that role. Anyone have any suggestions? How about Garret Anderson? Has anyone heard how Dmitri Young’s rehab has gone? Doug Gray February 4, 2010 Both of those guys are terrible defenders. Nix is an above average defender. Joe February 4, 2010 WHO CARES??? We need a left handed bat to come off the bench in PH situations. How about a suggestion, Doug…that was my first question??? Doug Gray February 4, 2010 Walt and Dusty care. For a bat off the bench, Nix is about as good as you are going to get. He has some good power. Not very good on-base skills, but for the bench you aren’t going to get that very often. Dickerson can be another left handed bat off the bench. Joe February 4, 2010 Guess out of all the free agents left….you don’t have a suggestion on who could be brought in to compete with Nix for the LH bat off the bench? Doug Gray February 4, 2010 There really isn’t a good option out there. The guys who can hit, can’t play defense. The guys who can defend, can’t hit. Joe February 4, 2010 We have enough guys who can play well definsively in the OF…I want a lefty who can PH late in the ballgame. Historiccaly, most good NL teams have hitters than can rely on to PH late in the game…nad many of them are past their fielding prime and get little time in the field. Doug Gray February 4, 2010 You probably aren’t going to be able to convince the type of player you want to be a late inning pinch hitter. Joe February 4, 2010 I strongly disagree….as the spring winds blow with so many free agents, bargains are to be had. It is for similar reasons that veterans accept signing minor league contracts with an invite to spring training. Doug Gray February 4, 2010 Here were the bench lefties last year (min 90 PA) for the playoff teams plus the Tigers who tied the Twins but lost the 1 game playoff: Brett Gardner – .270/.345/.379 in 284 PA Eric Hinske – .226/.316/.512 in 98 PA George Kottaras – .237/.308/.387 in 107 PA Greg Dobbs – .247/.296/.383 in 169 PA Paul Bako – .224/.308/.336 in 130 PA Matt Stairs – .194/.357/.379 in 129 PA Brian Buscher – .235/.360/.316 in 164 PA Josh Anderson – .242/.282/.315 in 175 PA Aubrey Huff – .189/.265/.302 in 107 PA And of course Laynce Nix – .239/.291/.476 Nix had the 2nd highest OPS of all the players. Joe February 5, 2010 c’mon dude one year of stats doesn’t mean very much….what’s your point?? step outside of the comfort box. Let’s see if we can agree to one simple thing before we make it complex again….Do you agree that ideally we would have a reliable LH and RH bat on the bench for PH duties? simple yes or no, please….then we can agree on something….how we get there and prioritize wht’s more important , we won’t agree for a while…. Doug Gray February 5, 2010 Of course I would like to have them. I just think that Nix is about what you are going to get. Guy has a lot of pop in his bat. Doesn’t get to first base much. Maybe you go the other way with a guy who finds first a lot, but slugs under .400. Odds aren’t good that you find a .775 or better OPS bat to come off your bench as a pinch hitter only in the NL. Joe February 5, 2010 See, we can agree!!! Nix probably wins out but I would like to see a couple non-roster invites go to possibly guys like Garrett Anderson (.704 OPS) and Meat Hook, if his quad is recoverred (.794, 2008, last season played) and maybe there a re other possibilities, just to add a little competition to LH PH position. Joe February 4, 2010 …and…Dickerson can’t be the lefty off the bench in PH situations when he is starting against a right handed starter. Doug, please don’t go down the “Dusty and Walt care” route. I strongly advocated not offerring Gomes arbitration and finding someone at SS other than Janish and you strongly advocated the opposite. Seems my gut feel on what Walt might do is not inferior to yours. Doug Gray February 4, 2010 I didn’t say I thought they would offer Gomes, I said I think they should. Large difference. And Dusty and Walt absolutely do care about being a good defender. Everything they say and do suggests that. Joe February 4, 2010 I never said you thought they “would” but you did state they “should” and you wanted to go into the season with Janish…like I said before. Again, my insight is not inferior to yours as to what Walt will do….I know I’m somehow keeping score wrong….tell me again. Doug Gray February 4, 2010 I didn’t want to go into the season with Janish. I just wasn’t sure there were options worth the pay who were large enough upgrades. Joe February 4, 2010 your in such denial and your semantic veil is mighty thin Alan Horn February 5, 2010 I certainly wanted to go into the season with Janish. The guy on MLBtraderumors.com agreed if you looked at his chat yesterday. I also agree with him on Hernandez versus Hannigan. He didn’t think the Reds upgraded with those two off season transactions and I agree. The trade off wasn’t worth the gain and the money. Krozley February 5, 2010 You do, however, need depth. Relying on the unknowns of Janish and Hanigan could prove detrimental with no one ready behind them to stp in. Having both Cabrera/Janish and Hernandez/Hanigan helps alleviate some doubt at those positions. The ceiling probably didn’t get higher at those spots, but the floors are now not so low. And if the Reds justify the one year spend on those guys, it doesn’t hurt the club. Alan Horn February 5, 2010 Look what you paid for that depth. Plus, you pushed both Janish and Hannigan to the bench. I contend that you could have done it more cheaply and used the acquisitions to back up Janish and Hannigan versus the other way around. You could have brought up Valaika for a little of nothing(at least until Cozart was ready). It isn’t like Hernandez did a whole lot last season and he was out hurt a pretty good while. Aren’t Cabrera and Hernandez costing the Reds around 7 million collectively next season? Joe February 5, 2010 Hernandez was a big part of us staying in the race after Votto went down. He played almost exclusively first during that time. I agree with Walt. Retaining Hernandez (at a negotiated lower amount) and signing Cabrerra greatly improved the 2010 25 man roster without blocking prospect development. Nick February 5, 2010 How did the Reds not upgrade with Hernandez over Hanigan and O-Cab over Janish. Janish flat out can’t hit. He never hit in the minors and nothing he has done in the majors shows he is starting to figure it out. Hanigan hit great while working in a limited role and filling in while Votto was out. Once he was handed the starting job after Hernandez got hurt he hit around .220. Not to mention he drove in 11 runs in 250 at bats. He reminds me a lot of Ryan Freel, a great backup player that thrives in the role of getting 5-10 ab’s a week but once they’re starting they start to wear down. Bottom line is Hernandez drives in atleast 70 runs if he isn’t hurt, Hanigan won’t come close to that number. O-Cab was a major reason the Twins came back and won that division last year. Yah I know they have a guy named Mauer but getting O-Cab was huge for that team. He hasn’t hit under .282 the last four years. With Janish and Hanigan starting your looking at 70-75 wins next year, with Cabrera and Hernandez 80-85. Doug Gray February 5, 2010 Hernandez/Hanigan is apples oranges. Hanigan consistently hit 8th in a terrible lineup. Hernandez was usually hitting behind Votto and Phillips. Hanigan literally came to the plate less than 3 times a week with someone in scoring position last season. It is not his fault he didn’t have RBI numbers. Yes, his RISP numbers were bad. But they also are so far apart that they mean next to nothing. As for your win projections…. you are getting a little carried away. 10 extra wins is worth more than adding another Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips to our team. Hanigan is actually better than Hernandez, but we need both guys because everyone needs two catchers. Cabrera, if his defense returns to average or close to it, is probably a 2 win upgrade over Janish. Alan Horn February 5, 2010 The software isn’t working again, but this reply is to Nick. The key being if Rolen, Cabrera and Hernandez aren’t hurt(which I think is highly likely for all 3). Then you look at what they cost(almost 10 million) and it is hard to justify. Age, a history of injuries and catcher/right side of the infield aren’t a good mix. Especially when it costs you 10 million. There is no way anyone can predict that Cabrera/Hernandez will produce 10 more wins. How many loses will they produce because of their inferior defense? Also, there is no way you can say for sure Janish won’t improve on his numbers(he certainly won’t sitting on the bench). I still am inclined to agree with the guy on mlbtraderumours.com. I think some might have a different conclusion after the fat lady sings. Doug Gray February 5, 2010 The software isn’t working again, but this reply is to Nick. I think this happens when there are too many replies to one post. Alan Horn February 5, 2010 I wouldn’t worry too much about it. I like the format of your website better than most all the others. It’s hard to get perfect software these days. I have programmed and worked in the field for over 30 years(mostly mainframe which no one uses much now). I’m in management now, but I have to address things like that on a daily basis usually not getting a solution(it’s hard to get much response from India). Alan Horn February 5, 2010 should be left side on infield coltholt February 5, 2010 The cost of Cabrera and Hernandez isn’t anywhere near $10MM. Hernandez was signed for 3MM and Cabrera was signed for 2MM. Reports had the numbers all mixed up on Cabrera, but sheldon reported for an AP release that the signing was for $2MM in ’10 with a $4MM mutual option ($1MM club buyout, 500k player buyout). Nick February 5, 2010 Janish is not the future of SS for the Reds neither is Cabrera, but if were talking about wins this year Cabrera gives them the best chance. Valaika, Cozart, or hopefully Frazier will be at SS next year but none of them were ready this year. I like having a good mix of the veterans Rolen, Cabrera, and Hernandez for the young guys, Bruce, Votto, and Stubbs to learn from. Say what you want about Rolen but the guy is a true leader and winner. His health has been questionable as of late but when he’s healthy he should still be able to produce. Alan Horn February 5, 2010 The 10 million included Rolen. Time will tell how much the 3 stay on the field just as it does on which(if any) of the youngsters produce. I have to believe some of the young players are ready before 2011. I think the Reds brass believe they can win the central next season. I don’t know if that is realistic. You are going to have to have some good luck with injuries with some old guys. Plus, you are going to have to have some luck with the pitchers staying healthy. I think the chances of that happening are less than 50%. I would rather be building for 2011 and letting the guys we are depending on then get their feet wet. Otherwise, they will be getting their feet wet in 2011 and that will set us back. I absolutely believe some will be ready next season and they shouldn’t be blocked. I get the idea the Reds may want to delay their time clock relative to major league service time. Alan Horn February 5, 2010 I forgot to add. We keep coming back to if they are healthy and that may be a big if. Joe February 5, 2010 I doubt there is a pitching staff that you have to hope they stay healthy. Cabrerra has a record of being healthy and palying a lot of games. I am sure Hannigan will be relieving Hernandez at least 2 days per week, so that will help keep him healthy. I wish they would take the smae approach with Rolen. Frazier would be the perfect guy to do that with. It wouldn’t surprise me if they push Francisco into a role where he relieves Rolen 2 days a week and platoons in LF. I don’t agree with it because of his defense but the Reds are very high on him. Alan Horn February 5, 2010 I agree Joe that would make more sense. I would rather it be Frazier that spells Rolen but you can’t justify keeping him or Francisco on the bench the rest of the time. So it almost dictates both will be at AAA which means it will be the new guy(Traveras trade) or someone simliar like Sutton. I would think Hernandez would need to be replaced more than twice a week(he could slide over to 1B some like he did last season but hopefully, Votto won’t need to miss much time.) Cabrera would need to be spelled at least a couple of times a week. The problem I see with the older guys is even with the time off(which helps), they will still be more prone to injury. I agree about pitching but added on to our higher percentage with the position players, it’s an added disadvantage. Again, time will tell, but you can’t hang your hat on too many older players. Joe February 5, 2010 Alan, have you see how many games per year Cabrerra has played the last few years. He won’t need to be spelled a couple days per week. Rolen does need 2-3 days off per week….Frazier or Francisco could platoon both at 3b and LF so they’s be perfect…but they are not ready. Bold prediction: if either of them are hot though in ST, don’t be surprised if either comes North (I guess East now). Alan Horn February 5, 2010 I hope you are right. Anything can happen with an older player and Cabrera has already seen his defense fall off. I would like to see both Frazier and Francisco in the lineup at some time in the future. I agree they both may not be totally ready at the beginning of the season. That may be an entirely different situation by July. The problem is when they are ready, the Reds likely won’t move Rolen or Cabrera(if Cozart comes on). There is going to be a huge logjam in LF soon. I don’t think Frazier or Francisco will play 3B 3 years from now. They will be moved to another position or traded prior to that. That is what continues to bother me(especially since we don’t have another quality 3B in the minors(Soto hasn’t shown me enough yet). hog February 4, 2010 i wasnt around at 159p what was the answer Doug Gray February 4, 2010 http://redsminorleagues.com/2010/02/03/wednesday-news-and-notes-11/comment-page-1/#comment-9846 Dennis February 5, 2010 Left right left combinations, against righthanders. Could it be: Dickerson L Stubbs R Votto L Phillips R Bruce L Rolen R Cabrera R H/H R or would it be: Dickerson L Cabrera R Votto L Phillips R Bruce L Rolen R H/H R Stubbs R Seems that Dickerson would make the ideal leadoff hitter with his .370 OBP william February 5, 2010 First, Nix is as good as it gets pinch hitting. The reason he got starts last year were because he was so good at pinch hitting, a lot of double power off of the bench. Also, I was excited about Francisco getting a shot at left field out of spring training. I’ve always been high on him but after watching him the last few games on mlb network, and I know he has had a few bad games, he is nowhere near ready. He can’t hit lefties, at all, from what I have seen and his defense is horrid. Reminds me of Edwin except not as quick. I still have high hopes, they are just now a year away. Joe February 5, 2010 Did anyone else notice that Stubb has a significantly lower % of balls hit to CF (in the spray chart)? I went back and looked at Alonso, Frazier and Francisco to confirm that normally a good hitter will hit his highest percantage of balls to CF. Yes the ball should be hit where its pitched but I wonder if this significantly lower % of balls hit to CF is an indication of he is trying to pull the ball (LF), he gets fooled or can’t get around on balls (RF), or the pitchers even in the minors figured out how to get him out. Doug Gray February 5, 2010 Did anyone else notice that Stubb has a significantly lower % of balls hit to CF (in the spray chart)? This looks like a bit of an aberration. In the previous two seasons Stubbs was in CF just as much as he was in left and right. Joe February 5, 2010 Not sure you can chalk it up to an aberration….he also faced better pitchers in AAA than at lower levels for prior years Doug Gray February 5, 2010 Sure, but he also faced better pitchers in 2008 than in 2007 and so on. His charts looked the same from 2006-2008. He was having issues with his swing while in the minors this year. Could have been one of the reasons he went to LF and RF more than CF this year. Joe February 5, 2010 thanks for confirming my concern noted from his spray chart (“issues with his swing”) Doug Gray February 6, 2010 Joe, You can get a more detailed spray chart here: http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=453211 You will probably have to click the “08” then the “09” to get the spray chart link on the second gray line, but it actually shows where each ball landed. I need to figure out how Jeff gets the exact hit locations. hog February 5, 2010 I was looking at the minor league rosters do you think they will remain as they are now Doug Gray February 5, 2010 The minor league rosters aren’t set for 2010, so no, they will be drastically different from anything you are seeing.