Wednesday news and notes Doug Gray February 10, 2010 30 Comments Being the baseball nerd that I am, I subscribe to about 50 baseball websites. Yesterday I came across an article at Fangraphs by Dave Cameron that looked into a few players power to different fields. For minor leaguers the data is a lot harder to come by so I had to do the legwork myself. I will be looking at a few guys each day as it takes about 30-40 minutes per player to get the data. Today I wanted to look at the Isolated Power (AVG subtracted from SLG) for three guys from the minors last season (Stubbs also had his MLB time included). Player LF CF RF Heisey .824 .143 .109 Stubbs .430 .246 .209 Frazier .667 .242 .215 As noted in Heisey’s Season Review, he has a LOT of power to his pull side. What I didn’t expect to see was that his isolated power to center and right field was actually quite poor. Todd Frazier and Drew Stubbs are very similar in terms of power the opposite way and up the middle, but it seems Stubbs still doesn’t get as much power when he turns on the ball. Frazier fell in the middle for the other two guys we looked at. Speaking of Chris Heisey, CNati.com has up video with him on their site right now. Go watch and listen as soon as you are done reading this article. Tom Nichols of the Dayton Dragons website, radio booth and so much more has up his first article of a series that looks at the possible candidates of position players who may wind up in Dayton this season. The first position is catcher, which has a few players in the running. The Red Reporter community has finished their Top 25 Prospect list. Here is what their Top 10 looks like: 1. Aroldis Chapman 2. Todd Frazier 3. Yonder Alonso 4. Mike Leake 5. Chris Heisey 6. Juan Francisco 7. Travis Wood 8. Yorman Rodriguez 9. Zack Cozart 10. Matt Maloney Go visit the link above to see the rest of the list. John Sickels was on with Jeff Erickson of Rotowire’s Podcast and they got into Aroldis Chapman a little bit in just how wide the number of outcomes could be for him. At the end of the show there is some stuff on a former Red as well. Hal McCoy seems to have landed back on his feet. He will be working with Fox Sports Ohio who will be starting a website, or bolstering one they already have. 30 Responses Dennis February 10, 2010 Heisey will have a tough time in the majors unless he changes his approach. His BA dropped from .347 in AA to .278 in AAA. The better pitchers will know how to exploit his tendency to pull the ball. Nick February 10, 2010 You have to be able to go the other way in the majors. That was EE’s biggest problem and the pitchers at this level constantly exploited it. Alan Horn February 10, 2010 You need to be able to go the other way in any league. Years ago when I coached, I had most of my age 14 players mastering going the other way. It’s hard to understand how someone is almost at the major league level and can’t go the other way. You have to be able to hit the ball where it is pitched or otherwise the pitchers will own you in any league. Ryan D February 10, 2010 batting average is a poor offensive statistic, sample size, BABIP… lollipopcurve February 10, 2010 I’ve been saying this since seeing Heisey hit on TV. He’s got a swing that is somewhat grooved to LF. He’s going to have to work hard on his approach to stay up the middle and to right. Even if he’s able to accomplish that, I don’t think he’ll be able to muster power on a consistent basis outside of LF/left-center. Kyle February 10, 2010 Who do you see starting out catching for Dayton? Mark Fleury would seem to be the best prospect of the bunch. I would like to see Chris McMurray back him up but it wouldn’t surprise me if Chase Weems goes back to Dayton. Doug Gray February 10, 2010 I think Fleury has to be the odds on favorite as the starter. wanderinredsfan February 10, 2010 As of last summer, McMurray looked like the better all-around catcher of the 2010 Dayton probables to me. McMurray, Wideman, and/or Weems should be in Dayton to start the season, while Fleury needs another round of Billings. If Fleury can’t hit in Billings, he sure won’t hit in Dayton. Same goes for throwing runners out. Doug Gray February 10, 2010 Fleury’s peripherals looked good in Billings. His .220 BABIP didn’t. He should be fine if he repeats his peripherals. Defensively…. well that is to be seen. Dennis February 10, 2010 How about Neftali Soto catching in Dayton? Or somewhere else in the system. Doug Gray February 10, 2010 While Soto may catch somewhere, it won’t be in Dayton. Joe February 10, 2010 Just because Heisy’s isolated power is low to CF and RF does not mean he is not hitting the bal to RF and CF. Based in his spray chart he hits 30+% to CF and RF combined and at .369 and .364 BA, respectively. Though those are low numbers as compared to balls he hits to LF (24% of balls hit go to LF with a .731 BA), I ‘ll take the BA he has to CF and RF. Further, I would think that if he was pulling off the ball, he would have more weakly hit balls to 1b and 2b but he hit 11.1% to the right side of the infield. Bottom line, I believe he was superior over the pitchers he faced in the minors and had success with turning on the ball. He has shown he can go the other way, he will need to stay back a little to be able to drive the ball to where it is pitched. This is not a major adjustment for an accomplished hitter. Doug Gray February 10, 2010 Correct. Not sure I can completely agree with the last sentence of your reply, but the rest of it is spot on. DaveCT February 10, 2010 I also read a scouting report on Heisey that he has “made his living” hitting balls up the middle. The numbers would seem to contradict this some, in 09 at least, but there have been other observtions of his hitting. On the other question, I am all for Fleury getting first crack at the Dayton job. McMurray’s defense will carry him some, but we need to see if/when fleury will hit. Weems is relatively unknown but has probably fallen down the food chain a bit. Chi Redsfan February 10, 2010 this is off topic but any thoughts on Micah Owings it seems to me others (ie. Maloney) are going to pass him up as the #5 some see him as some kind of PH/reliever (i.e. Fay) but how do u use a guy as a PH if he is a reliever as u might need him later to pitch? Owings appears to me as a very mediocre pitcher who garners interest due to his hitting but in reality his hitting is either not nearly good enough to be a “hitter” or not usable otherwise, tx. Doug Gray February 10, 2010 As a reliever you can use Owings to PH for the pitcher he is going to replace, thus only using 1 bench spot instead of 2 when you pinch hit someone then bring in the reliever. Its not ideal because that means you may be using him in the 6th inning a lot because the 7-8-9 inning guys are already in their spots. At the same time though, since those roles are seemingly filled, once you get to those points of the game, Owings wasn’t an option unless you are going to go 12+ innings. Chi Redsfan February 10, 2010 Good point on the swap aspect early and you could do the same in a extra inning game rather than burn a PH, so if he could be an effective 6 or 7th guy out of the pen he might be more useful than the average 6 or 7 guy. Still not sure if he is the “best” option given their “6/7″alternatives though (i.e. Fisher, Herrara, Lincoln etc.). chris February 10, 2010 Doug, Do you see Hamilton being a top 10 guy in the organization next season? Outside of this seasons top 10 do you see him as the player who could jump up boards quickly? Doug Gray February 10, 2010 He certainly has the potential to be. You could argue he is the best athlete in the system, his defense is already above average and his tools are really strong across the board. If he has even a decent season its going to be tough to keep him out of the Top 10, even if he repeats low rookie ball. I think there are a few other guys, who could climb up as well (not to mention we will likely have guys graduate who were in the Top 10 which open up spots) including Soto, Mesoraco or potentially the international kids if they have good seasons in rookie ball. Kyle February 10, 2010 Do you think JC Sulbaran is a top ten prospect with a good showing in Dayton and Lynchburg this year? Are the international kids Duran, Guillon, Silva, and Arias? I know he isn’t one of the international kids, but I’m interested in seeing what Tucker Barnhart does this year. He seems like the kind of player who can be an overachiever. Doug Gray February 10, 2010 Sulbaran’s performance could dictate a big jump up the rankings, but I want to see a better walk rate along with better velocity throughout the season. With the international guys I was referring to it was not including Silva but also throwing Henry Rodriguez in that group. Buckeye_in_AZ February 10, 2010 I watched Heisey in about 10 games this year, and I can assure you he is much more than a pull hitter. I am confident he will hit at the major league level. Good bat speed, combined with strong hand action – do not underestimate his ability. He may not be an all star, but there is little doubt he will be a solid contributor. Making assesments from “watching him on tv” doesn’t really merit a fair assesment of his ability. Look back to previous AFL achievers, and see how it translates to the next level! Doug Gray February 10, 2010 I agree that Heise should hit at the MLB level enough to be a starter. But he is a very pull oriented hitter. That isn’t always a bad thing. It can be, but simply being a pull hitter doesn’t doom someone. I watched Heisey 40+ times last season. He can hit the ball. As for the AFL…. Heisey had both a good and bad AFL. The good, he hit for power. The bad, he struck out at a VERY high rate and his walk rate was lower than you would expect. What can we take out of that? Probably nothing. Its tough to take something of true value out of 100 at bats. AWA85 February 10, 2010 Robert Manuel was designated for assignment, think the Reds should try and pick up their prospect again if it is for next to nothing. CMT February 10, 2010 They could have picked him up on waivers in November if they were interested in bringing him back. I don’t think they like him over those already on the 40-man. Now if no one picks him up, maybe they would bring him back as a minor-league FA, but it doesn’t make sense to get him now considering they already passed on that opportunity 3-4 months ago. Mr. Redlegs February 10, 2010 Doug, when you lift info (McCoy item) from redletterdaze.com and don’t give credit, that’s a high breach journalistic and online ethics. You give credit to other sites; we always give your site credit and plugs. I don’t care whether you like me or my site, but you’re obviously reading the board and if you can’t give credit for our exclusive material, don’t use it and don’t pass it off as your own. Mr. R Doug Gray February 10, 2010 Mr R, I didn’t get it from you though it would seem that the person I did get it from got it from you. I will link over to you when I am done with this. For those who read the site, I clearly give credit to other sites. I simply didn’t realize that the person who emailed me the info had gotten it from you. Yeah February 10, 2010 He gives credit where credit is due more often than not. He gives credit to the website and/or person in 5/6-7 outside pieces of information in this post alone. One of those not-credited is the official MiLB site. The other one is the Hal McCoy portion, if you want to include that. Not knowing the situation, I’d say it’s incredibly presumptuous to think that he’s “stealing” your information. More than likely, he has as many “inside sources” as you do. Like I said, I don’t know the situation. Reading this site for the past year, I’d take the chances that he got it himself or read it multiple places. He almost always gives credit when information is exclusive to one place. That being said, even if he did “steal” it from you, get off his back. It’s one time. mark February 10, 2010 probably should have sent that in a private email. Ron February 11, 2010 Agreed, kind of a whimpy thing to do to rant about it in an open forum … take that kind of stuff off line, one on one …like an “ethical” person would do.