RedsMinorLeagues.com 2011 Top Prospects list: #1-5 Doug Gray December 10, 2010 50 Comments Here are prospects #6-10, prospects 11-15, prospects 16-20 and prospects 21-25. Chat will begin at 3pm. You can begin submitting questions now. Reds Minor Leagues Top 25 Prospect Chat 5. Billy Hamilton – SS/2B – 19 years old – Rk+ Background: 2nd round – 2009 The Good: Switch hitter with good plate discipline, elite athleticism, elite speed and plus defense up the middle. Needs to work on: He has not shown much power to this point in his career. 4. Yorman Rodriguez – OF – 18 years old – Rk+ Background: NDFA – August 2008 The Good: Very good athlete, willing to go with a pitch, very good defensively, good raw power and has good speed. Needs to work on: Being a little more patient at the plate. 3. Yonder Alonso – 1B – 23 years old – MLB Background: 1st round – 2008 The Good: Good plate discipline, above average power, close to the majors and can hit the ball to all fields. Needs to work on: Conditioning. If he wants to stay with the Reds he might need to play left field where he just isn’t suited well for the position. 2. Devin Mesoraco – C – 22 years old – AAA Background: 1st round – 2007 The Good: Above average power, good hit tool, above average arm behind the plate and closeness to the Majors. Needs to work on: Refining his catching abilities behind the plate as he just needs to continue to get reps. 1. Aroldis Chapman – LHP – 22 years old – MLB Background: NDFA – January 2010 The Good: Perhaps the fastest fastball ever, plus slider, closeness to the Majors and athletic. Needs to work on: Building up his innings if he will be a starter and his control could use some refining as well as his change up. 50 Responses Rob December 10, 2010 just saw they signed Bruce to 6+ yr contract… How close is Yorman to the majors? could left field be his in 2 yrs? awa85 December 10, 2010 Doug, we need to throw a party knowing Bruce will be here for at least the next 6-7 years! As for the Yorman question, fast rate would put him in Dayton for 2011,High A for 2012 with maybe a promotion somewhere in there,AA/AAA for 2013. Really fast rate would be MLB around 2013, but 2014 wouldn’t be a bad time to target Yorman for the big league if he continues to progress, just my guess. MK December 10, 2010 It says he signed for 6 or 7 years but it doesn’t say he will necessarily be here for all of that. Just look at Justin Upton’s situation. Kevin December 10, 2010 Now Fay’s saying their talking to Johnny Cueto about buying out his arbitration years. And that the Bruce deal doesn’t effect the potential Votto deal. Where is all this money coming from? Must have been a good year for fresh produce. Boiler December 10, 2010 They are all getting raises anyways because of arb. I didn’t see how the Bruce deal was structured, but more than likely the money was back loaded. Arroyo took deferred salary for a couple of years after his contract is up, so that helps. In a couple of years, Coco, Rolen, Phillips, and Arroyo for that matter are off the books. Doug Gray December 10, 2010 They aren’t adding any money for 2011 by signing these types of deals. They are actually saving future money by signing these kinds of deals. coltholt December 12, 2010 If only they had done this 12 months ago with Votto. He would have cost two thirds of what he will now. They probably could have gotten a 7 year deal (2010 to 2016…1 min, 3 arb, 2 FA) for around 62.5MM. To cover those 6 years now, it would likely cost them nearly 100MM Doug Gray December 12, 2010 Last offseason they weren’t sure if the guy was able to mentally handle playing a full season, so I get not doing it last season with the uncertainty. Kevin December 13, 2010 What you guys are implying is that they are only budgeting for 2011. Yet let’s say they extend Votto and Cueto to go along with Bruce and Arroyo. I’d imagine Votto would be paid at least 15M in his 3rd season (2013) of any deal. Cueto at least 10M in 2013 as well. Add in Bruce (guessing 8 mil for 2013) and we know Arroyo is at 18M for 2013. That’s 51M for 4 players in 2013. Let’s be generous and say the payroll upticks in 2013 to 82M. That’s 62% of payroll in 4 players (2/3rds if the payroll stays the same as 2011). That’s not very sustainable for a small market team. Add in that you’re on the hook for ~5M for Chapman then, and now we’re talking about covering 20 players with 26M or 1.3 avg. That’s going to be tricky given the arbitration eligibility in 2013 of some of the other core players. My guess is they must be close to parlaying their 50% increase in tv ratings in 2010 for a new extension on their tv contract with FSN Ohio, but I can’t find any info on when the current contract runs out. That’s almost the only way the payroll numbers would work out. Ryan D December 10, 2010 to far away to guess Alan Horn December 10, 2010 I agree. LF is up for grabs among several young players. Hopefully, the one who earns it will be our future left fielder. Trades are also possible. Yorman has 4 more levels in the minor leagues to show what he can do. Doug Gray December 10, 2010 Doubtful. In two years Yorman Rodriguez will have just turned 20 years old and have just finished his age 19 season. I would project him for about 4 years down the road. awa85 December 10, 2010 Really like our top 5 when you look at the rankings. An elite pitching prospect, a starting catcher, athletic infield switch hitter with blazing speed, nice bat/trade chip…. and Yorman with all the potential in the world. DaveCT December 10, 2010 Agreed. Several of whom could very well be impact players for some time. Tony December 10, 2010 I am concerned with the Reds lack of pitching depth in out top 25… Not much there at the moment. I think it would be wist to make some move at draft time and get a HS pitcher as well as some college arms. In the bigs at the moment we are loaded in the depth department, but just a few years away from our rotation looking thin. MK December 10, 2010 8 pitchers out of 25 isn’t awfull especially when you consider Wood, Ondrusek, Leake, Smith all have less than a full year of MLB service (I know Leake has a full year on the books, but he was shut down at the end of the year). doctor December 10, 2010 My only concern is as you look thru the list, Reds seem to have a gap in prospects. Lots of guys listed at MLB/AAA or Rookie/A-ball. Given Reds are a relative young team at MLB level, may not be an issue. Especially if some guys live up to expectations and move up quickly, Grandall/Hamilton to name a couple. Go 2011 Reds! MK December 10, 2010 High A and Low A teams have not been stocked with much talent the last 2 years. However the bigger prospects like Leake and Alonso have prety well bypassed those levels. Boiler December 10, 2010 The league records showed that as well. Unless something happens, Bakersfield will get blasted day in/day out because of the lack of talent. Krozley December 10, 2010 Looking at last year’s top 25, we had 5 graduate to the bigs, 6 drop completely off this year’s list, 8 that stayed on the list but lowered their ranking, 4 that raised their ranking, and 2 that stayed the same. Sappelt was the biggest riser, going from outside the top 40 to #10. Klinker had the biggest drop; from #11 to 26+. Of the 11 that jumped into this year’s list, 4 were “new” (Chapman, Grandal, Lemarre, Perez) and the other 7 came from 40+ last year. I’m not sure what that means, just some interesting facts. David December 10, 2010 First, I am thrilled with the Bruce contract. Sheldon says that Bruce comes in for a physical on Monday 12/13/10, and then it should be official. Also Doug great job with the Top 25. Nothing screams to me that it should be different, maybe just minor tweaks, but that is for debate. And I know you have books to sell, but maybe you could tease us with the next hitter and pitcher who missed the 25, not #’s 26, and 27 just one of each? GC December 10, 2010 Y-Rod ready for dayton? I know B Hamilton is. David December 10, 2010 I’m not Doug, but I would think so. He played well in Billings, and Dayton is the next step. There were also rumors last spring training that he was going to be in Dayton last year, but it didn’t happen obviously. Kyle December 10, 2010 I have assumed for a while that Yorman and Hamilton are Dayton bound. Perhaps i shouldn’t have. The guys I am really curious about assignment-wise are Guillon, Correa, and Cisco. Cisco is the most advanced of the three but he may be victim to the numbers game. doctor December 10, 2010 doug, i look forward to when Sickels releases his Reds top 20 Prospects list/evaluation. It will be interesting to compare and review his comments/analysis. Doug Gray December 10, 2010 Yeah, I am pretty interested in seeing Sickels Top 20 and JJ Cooper’s Top 30 in the BA Handbook. I know a few differences with me and JJ as we have talked about them briefly. Still, I always like to read more about the differences in how we all look at prospects. Rick in Boise December 10, 2010 great chat – got there too late, alas. I think I mentioned this before but in NYC I heard multiple talk radio types *insisting* that the Mets go get Brandon Phillips. I’m skeptical of all this but.. for chat purposes, assume that the Mets come calling to acquire BP. any thoughts on a) who they might dangle (& we’d want) and b) who would plug into @b for us? c) whether this ia great time to ‘sell high’ on BP? TIA Doug Gray December 10, 2010 If they want Phillips, I want my doctors/trainers checking out Jose Reyes. That is where I would start. I would then look at Valaika or Cozart at 2B. The time to sell high on Phillips was a few years ago when he went 30-30. doctor December 10, 2010 that would be interesting, Brandon would in his age 30 year, with $11M in 2011 and $12M option in 2012. Reyes would be in his age 28 year, with only one year left at $11M. I would think though the Mets FO would want to use Reyes to bring back a rotation pitcher if they traded him. coltholt December 10, 2010 Difference being, I fully expect BP to be worth his pay in 11 and 12, while I expect as much out of Janish as I do Reyes for the foreseeable future Alan Horn December 10, 2010 I don’t know about Phillips(he should be close), but I agree on Janish. It’s time to give him his chance(he’s earned it). If he doesn’t work out, Cozart should be ready by June or July. Rick in Va. December 10, 2010 Something wrong; I can’t replay the chat. When I click on it, the whole box becomes a translucent grey (I can see the beginning of the chat behind it, but can’t scroll). This has never happened to me here, although it has been happening the same way on Fay’s chats for a couple of months. Anyone have an idea what might be causing this? Rick in Va December 10, 2010 Odd: chat works for me with IE, but not with Firefox. Doug Gray December 10, 2010 Do you have an ad blocker running with firefox? Rick in Va December 10, 2010 Yes. But I had it running before & could always read your chats on Firefox anyway. Have you changed something that would be affected by Adblocker? Doug Gray December 10, 2010 I haven’t, but I would wager a guess that Coveritlive has. It has been a while since I used them, so odds are good that they upgraded something since the last time that I used them. coltholt December 12, 2010 They have integrated the ad at the startup on coveritlive over the past few months which could be what does it. The Duke December 10, 2010 My Top 25 1. Ardolis Chapman (22) SP 2. Devin Mesoraco C 3. Yonder Alonso (45) 1B/LF 4. Yorman Rodriquez CF 5. Billy Hamilton 2B/SS 6. Todd Frazier (43) 3B/LF 7. Yasmani Grandal C 8. Chris Valaika 2B/SS 9. Zack Cozart SS 10. Dave Sappelt OF 11. Juan Francisco 3B 12. Henry Rodriquez 2B 13. Don Jospeh RP 14. Ismael Guillon SP 15. Ryan Lamarre OF 16. Tucker Barnhart C 17. Mariekson Gregorious SS 18. Juan Duran OF 19. Brad Boxberger SP/RP 20. Jacob Johnson SP 21. Ronald Torreyes 2B 22. Matt Fairel SP 23. Sam Lecure SP 24. Drew Cisco SP 25. Matthew Klinker SP 44reds December 10, 2010 I was just looking at Bartlett’s stats, seems like he would have been an ideal pickup to me. High on base percentage, good speed, shortstop. Is his defense suspect? Why didn’t we make an offer for him? doctor December 10, 2010 Probably for various reasons but biggest is the $$$. He made $4M last year and has one more arbitration year left so probably a bit pricey given Walts comments on the budget. Also, probably concern he peaked in 2009 season, which was his best year by far in all cats across the board. With next year(2011) his age 31 year, and given the drop in stats in 2010, probably some concern he is regressing as well on down side of his career. Rick in Boise December 11, 2010 I’m using Chrome & it won’t replay (did the first time) Adobe Flash Player detects an issue with coveritlive but can’t find anything online to suggest there’s a security vulnerability. Rick in Boise December 11, 2010 wrong place- sorry. Interesting – the chat wqindow goes grey… but after a while I get a little box where I can cancel an ad (that is unseen). Click the little X & I’m fine. So, Doug G is probably right, it’s a coveritlive issue The Top Prospects | Redleg Nation December 11, 2010 […] to link to this series sooner, but Doug Gray has been counting down his top 25 Reds prospects. Here’s the top five; you can click through to the rest of the list. Very interesting, reasonable choices, and I defy […] redsfannorth December 12, 2010 I thought there would be reaction to the Arroyo extension contract details, so I guess I will go first. If he is only getting 3 million in 2013 because of the deferred salary then I am ok with that, even though it makes him untradable. His yearly salary makes him more attractive as well at the lower level. If the rest of the staff can develop and he can be a #4 in regular season and in the playoffs then I think he can be very productive. So if Bailey, Chapman and Cueto move past him and we can trade a couple of arms for offensive help I think the Reds are in pretty good shape over the next 3 seasons. doctor December 13, 2010 RFN, after 2011 season, Bronson gets automatic no-trade do to 5/10 rights. so even harder to trade him, especially when all the deferred salary kicks in to be paid if he is traded. this deal really sticks the reds. rather Walt had let the option year play out and then see what Bronson had done. Go 2011 Reds! Defending NL Central Champs. Nate December 13, 2010 Apparently, they are a lot of rumors going around that the Reds are discussing Jose Reyes from the Mets. Goggle Reds, Jose Reyes and there are some articles from both Reds and Mets fans. I would send them a package of Bailey/Leake, and a couple prospects for him, if they could throw some cash our way. Since it seems like we are tight on cash. What do you guys think? doctor December 13, 2010 nate, that seems to be a lot to give up for 1 year of Reyes, who coming off a injury-2009 year, had a down year offensively in 2010 by his standards and is going to cost $11M. Alan Horn December 13, 2010 For one year and the difference in offensive performance(plus the players we would have to give up), I would rather go with Janish/Cozart. Alan Horn December 13, 2010 Plus he makes a pretty huge salary.(major difference there) Doug Gray December 13, 2010 Yeah, if they were willing to take Cordero and a prospect for him, then I am all ears. But not the package listed above.