Keith Law is reporting that the two prospects in the Sean Marshall for Travis Wood deal are Dave Sappelt and Ronald Torreyes. If it is true, I will just say that I am in shock over this. I wouldn’t trade Travis Wood or Dave Sappelt straight up for one season of Sean Marshall, who I really like. I am sorry, but relievers simply aren’t worth that kind of value. To add in Ronald Torreyes is shocking to me on top of it. Extension or not, this is a drastic overpay if it’s true and no one will ever convince me otherwise. I would have started Dave Sappelt in left field all year long. Apparently Chris Heisey and his low OBP is going to get a chance instead. I don’t dislike Heisey, but I would trade him 95 times out of 100 instead of Dave Sappelt.

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Doug Gray is the owner and operator of this website and has been running it since 2004 in one variation or another. You can follow him on twitter @dougdirt24, contact him via email here or follow the site on Facebook. and Youtube.

200 Responses

  1. chris

    I don’t post here often but I read the site everyday. However, when I saw this, I couldn’t help but post something. I cannot believe this! This is probably one of the most lopsided trades I have ever seen!

    I thought the Latos deal was a great trade for the Reds, but I would consider this to be the comlete opposite! What are we doing?

    • Doug Gray

      Agreed.

      The Latos deal was good. It acquired elite talent, at a cheap price, for 4 full years.

      This deal acquires an elite bullpen arm, for one season. Relievers, even good ones, aren’t that valuable. There were less than 10 relievers who were more valuable last year than Drew Stubbs and just about everyone wants Stubbs to be benched.

  2. Tim

    Walt is really depleting our farm system. He really seems to be in a win this year mode. Is anyone else nervous about all the prospects we have given up in the last 2 trades?

    • Doug Gray

      Not so much worried about the prospects in the Latos deal, we didn’t have room for them.

      This deal… we need a left fielder. Traded Sappelt. We need a 2B of the future. Traded Torreyes.

      Now, I get that there are always other options there, but Sappelt, to me, was easily the best internal option we have to at least several years in left. Torreyes, not so much at second base in the near term, but at least a guy you need to keep a close eye on.

      • ChrisSD

        My first reaction to the deal was the same as the first poster, and I looked for a bounce back year from Wood. I think the Red’s talent evaluators did not value Wood, Sappelt and Torreyes as much as many of the posters. For quite awhile I have thought that a team that trades prospects for a proven major league player is getting the better of the deal. I believe in recent history that is not nearly as true. But, not many on this site believed Wood could be much more than a 4 or a 5. Almost everybody thought Sappelt would produce at a high level. Many had concerns about Torreyes lack of size as he progressed into the higher levels. Only time will tell if this is a good trade for the Reds, a good trade for the Cubs or a great trade for the Cubs.

  3. Todd

    This deal makes no sense to me! Unless they intend to use Marshall as a starter (which I don’t think is the case) – we have been fleeced! Sappelt and Torreyes should have been enough to get the deal done IMHO…

  4. Kevin

    Horrible. Hoping this is an unsubstantiated rumor. There’s got to be another piece coming the Reds way for this to make ANY sense. Even then I don’t know what that piece could be that would make me be happy about losing Torreyes.

    How do we go from Webb/Coddington to Torreyes/Sappelt? Sappelt isn’t even a minor leaguer.

    Maybe we can just pass a rule, that the Reds should never trade for middle relief, ever.

    Not happy that Theo Epstein is in the division now.

    • Doug Gray

      Marshall isn’t a middle reliever. He is one of the most valuable relievers in the game.

      But…. he is still a reliever. 60 innings is not worth substantial value. It just isn’t. No matter how good those 60 innings are.

    • IndyRedsFan

      Re: Kevin’s question….”How do we go from Webb/Coddington to Torreyes/Sappelt?”

      No special insight here….but perhaps it was Webb/Coddington if Marshall didn’t sign an extension…or Torreyes/Sappelt if he did.

      Like the rest of you….I can’t believe it’s Wood, Torreyes and Sappelt for one year’s worth of Marshall.

  5. Patrick in Cortland NY

    I am hoping for failed physical if this true.

    way over pay and we will have to face these guys in the future

    • Patrick

      Marshall passed his physical yesterday. Wood took his 2 days ago.

  6. Foxred

    The most disappointing move the Reds have made in Jocketty’s term, may be top 5 worst trade team has ever made.

    • Doug Gray

      I don’t know if that is true. Historically bad trades are when you lose out on elite level talent. I don’t think any of these guys fit that one. But, I don’t like the trade one bit.

      • Foxred

        I take back the comment about top 5 worst. You make a good point. Still worst under Jocketty. Torreyes was a guy that complete changed the dynamic of a team last year. That was something I wanted to see develop. Yes he could hit but he had the makings of a winner. The intangibles…

  7. chiredsfan

    I have been confused by Mr. Gray’s stance on the deal as I thought you were saying you liked the deal for Wood and two non-prospects. But apparently you did not and now that two actual prospects are included one being ML ready; well I think we would agree that this is a horrible deal, just horrible. Jocketty has gone from a bit slow on the trigger to trigger happy.

    • Beard

      I don’t want to speak for Doug but I think he has said all along that one year of Marshall is not worth even Wood alone. Now if Marshall signed an extension and if the two prospects were lower end guys like Webb and Codington then the trade would be ok. This may be mean but I would have liked to seen Doug’s face when it was mentioned it was Sappelt and Torreyes. Actually I am sure I had a Don Knotts looking face myself when I saw it. Does Theo have compromising pictures on Walt? Or maybe there are other players in there too.

      • chiredsfan

        I will say again, signing Marshall to an extension is the exact equivalent of signing him out of free agency next year, it is irrelevant. Marshall is not going to give a new org a discount. The Reds traded three players for one year of Marshall, if they sign so be it, they could have signed him after next season as well without having given up three players.

      • Doug Gray

        It does add slight value, because you are the only team negotiating with him. So he can’t play others against you and his agent can’t ask other teams what they would offer him because it is against the rules. But, yeah, the value added isn’t much. As I tweeted, unless its something like 3-4 years at 3-4M a year, it doesn’t help at all that we extended him.

      • chiredsfan

        If Marshall is a top level reliever then he is not going to sign for $3-4MM, he is going to go get big money like all the others. That is why to me this is a one year rental and therefore a crazy deal.

  8. Ron

    To be honest, I am not surprised. This has been Walt’s MO since he came here. If you think back to the Rolen deal, he gave up Stewart when everyone thought it was ludicrous to do so. Then he trades 3 of our top 10 prospects for Latos and now … trades two very promising players in Torreyes & Sappelt. The Latos deal I didn’t mind so much because I think everyone can agree Volquez needed a change of scenery and two of the top prospects were blocked. But, all in all, Walt’s track record shows a very strong indication that he is not a good negotiator when it comes to trades due to his tendency to over pay.

  9. Kyle

    Truly awful deal. Travis Wood and two top 15 prospects for 1 year of Marshall? Seems too horrendous to be true.

    • Dan

      Well, I don’t think Sappelt and Torreyes are top 15 (are they?), but I agree that’s it’s an insane, insane overpay. To the point of thinking, “What am I missing here?”

      • Doug Gray

        They are to me. BA might have them there, or right outside of there. Heck, after the Latos trade, both guys were inside my Top 10.

  10. MDRon

    This shows the actual value of Travis Wood. I think many of us overvalued him.

    • Dan

      Or Jocketty undervalues him. Just b/c this trade happened doesn’t mean it’s right or smart.

      • Doug Gray

        This.

        Just because Walt doesn’t grasp the idea of value on cheap and league average talent, or individual relievers value, doesn’t mean that it doesn’t have it.

  11. KyWilson1

    Absolutely no way he should have given up Sappelt, if you had to give up a LF give them Heisey. Theo just showed how much better he is at his job then Walt. Sappelt will ruin the Reds for years to come and it wouldnt surprise me to see Travis Wood own the Reds next year. If prospects were needed for this deal they should have been low level not a major leaguer + a promising prospect. Either we as Reds fans way over valued our farm, or Jocketty doesnt value you it at all.

    On a side note, if they cant win this year they can restock the farm next year with a Votto trade, which they should accept nothing less then what the Braves gave up for Texiera.

    • Scott in upstate NY

      I wonder if you are on to something. Has Walt conceeded the fact he will have to deal Votto sooner rather than letting him play his contract out, and therefore in anticipation of trading for prospects can afford to let 7 players go this month?

  12. Eric

    This trade just boggles my mind.

    The Reds traded players from two of their weakest spots, Starting Pitching and Left Field, to get a pitcher for the bullpen, which was not as big of a need.

    And just last year, I was thinking to myself “Man if Pujols and Prince left for other teams, the Reds are set up to win for 3-4 years. With the talent of Alonso, Grandal, Mesoraco, Bruce, Stubbs, Cozart, Francisco, Phillips, Cueto, and on and on and on… Now two of those players are gone, in my mind the lefty version of Leake (Travis Wood) and a great hitter (Sappelt) are all gone. I’m scared.

  13. Patrick

    I think the biggest part is that they gave up all those guys to a division opponent. Not a huge deal in my eyes but I dont like the idea that they gave up guys that will still be around long after Marshall is gone from the Reds.

  14. Justin

    Although I was a bit shocked to read about this trade, I’ll try to offer a differing opinion. Assuming we extend BP a few years and the fact that second base isn’t too hard to fill makes Torreyes acceptable. I liked Sappelt, but he didn’t show that he would be a starter this year and if we do get a LF there really wouldn’t be need for him and Heisey. To me this just shows that the Reds value Heisey over Sappelt. Travis Wood was on the outside looking in and although he offered nice depth, he likely would have become what Matt Maloney offered the Reds. Marshall adding 75 innings in any role will make a big difference and assuming we extend him and make him our closer, we didn’t give up in value to our roster nearly what we got.

    The case may be made that on pure prospective value we lost on this deal, but from a business point of view we didn’t need those three guys to win this year or next while having Marshall makes our pitching staff that much tougher. At the end of the day, winning in the big leagues is all that counts. Don’t beat me up too much on this premise…

    • Patrick in Cortland NY

      Maloney and Wood are two completely different pitchers IMO.

      • Justin

        I don’t disagree there, but my thought is that based on circumstance Wood gives us a capable back up and a decent bullpen arm if we need it. To me Maloney did just that for the Reds. If you put the two side by side Wood is the better pitcher now and in the future but if not given the chance it doesn’t matter how good you are. Wood wouldn’t be given much more than what Maloney got for the Reds going forward.

    • Doug Gray

      I think Sappelt absolutely showed he could be a starter this year…. outside of 11 games which happened to just be his first 11 with the Reds. The time frame out of that over the last two seasons all he has done is hit the cover off of the ball.

      • Justin

        Perhaps. How many guys can we have in major league emergence mode where we give them 1 to 3 years to come into their own and still win in the near future? Currently we have Bruce and Stubbs in the process and Mesoraco and Cozart coming into year one. This is not counting the projects involving Leake, Bailey, Chapman, Arredono etc. If we threw Heisey/Sappelt out there this year that for me is too many maybes for a team trying to compete on a higher level. If we can’t compete we have a harder time locking up Votto and we stay in this perpetual cycle of bringing in prospects and giving them a chance. You have to do that on some level, but we have to keep a balance of proven guys out there to compete.

      • Doug Gray

        Jay Bruce isn’t in the process of anything. He isn’t what he will be one day, but he is still one of the better right fielders in baseball.

        We aren’t locking up Votto. It isn’t going to happen. Ever. The Reds don’t have a huge TV deal (they in fact have one of the worst, over the next 8 years they won’t get as much as one year that the Angels or Yankees get on their deal) and they aren’t going to sell out every game for the next two years. Without at least one of those two things, Votto and the Reds won’t reach a deal because they can’t afford him otherwise.

      • Justin

        If Bruce isn’t today what he will be someday, then that by definition is “in process”. As for Votto, I suppose you can’t really argue the future. I think that signing him will make us push payroll to 100 million, which by 2015 seems possible. It may not be probable that we sign him but I think we have reason to believe we can.

      • Doug Gray

        Technically yes, but the way it was worded was that he wasn’t reliable because he was “in process”, which is completely inaccurate. Maybe I read it wrong, but that is how I read it.

      • Justin

        I wouldn’t say he’s unreliable, but he’s still a bit of a kid in his approach. If the game’s on the line you could have someone worse at the plate but someday he’ll be the guy you hope is at the plate. Although he has way more upside than Rolen, even in that at bat, I personally feel more comfortable right now with Rolen at the plate. I hope Bruce is that guy someday and more (and I think he will be) but to contend today we need the right balance of the Jay Bruces and Scott Rolens.

        Love this site by the way and kudos to everyone that posts. It seems that there is much more balanced and considerate posting here than on the Reds message boards.

      • Doug Gray

        Moderation will do that. I try to do my best to delete/edit comments that get out of line and will warn people. Generally they will adjust their style, those who don’t just get their IP banned.

    • Bill

      I agree with Justin’s perspective. I think these two recent deals are about the big league club going for it all in 2012. If this report is true, then the former Reds traded away were non-factors in 2012.

  15. The Duke

    I hate losing Torreyes but we do have Cozart, The General, HRod, possibly Frazier for SS and 2B going forward. Pretty clear indication Stubbs is going nowhere. Next option for CF is Lamarre, who is a year plus away. Pretty much out of FA options for LF with Beltran signing in St Louis. Looks like it’s Heisey sink or swim time.

    It took all of 3 weeks for Theo to own Walt.

    • bj

      I really believe that losing Torreyes will not hurt as bad in the future as some believe. Billy Hamilton will be making the transition to 2nd base by mid season this year, that will be a great middle infield in the near future. DIDI/Cozart at short and Billy at 2nd. pretty solid defense, if they both continue to develop at the plate

  16. Dan

    I’m predicting a Carolina-Mudcats-for-Carlos-Quentin trade eventually.

  17. Scott in upstate NY

    While Sappelt & Torreyes may not have had upside equivalent with top 5 prospects Theo selected two guys from the Reds system that are the embodiment of the word “Catalyst”.

      • Scott in upstate NY

        Sappelt, Torreyes, and… Dustin Pedroia three small stature guys that can and have sparked their clubs. I tip my hat to you Mr. Epstein.

  18. IndyRedsFan

    Given all the “leaks” I doubt this is the case…but is it possible there is another player coming back from the Cubs??

    Since they are “all in on rebuilding”….perhaps it’s Soriano and the $$$ to pay him……!!

    • Ron

      Deal has been officially announced … there are no other players involved

  19. Justin

    There may be some missed innings in this math somewhere, but adding Latos and Marshall and losing Wood Volquez and Cordero drops our team ERA last year from 4.10 to 3.69. This of course is taking their stats from last year and applying them to our team last year. At 4.10 ERA we were 20th in the majors and going to 3.69 ERA would have put us at #10 (12th to 8th in NL).

  20. poorolddad

    I was looking forward to seeing Sappelt in LF every day in 2012. He seems like an ideal lead off guy.It looks like one of Heisey/Frazier/Phipps/Francisco will need to step up and earn the job and Phillips will lead off…if Walt doesn’t get another LF somewhere.I don’t think anybody is going to run away with the NL Central in 2012, but they’d better figure LF out by the July 31 trade deadline.

  21. redsfannorth

    I am too outraged to put my thoughts clearly on paper. This is just awful!

  22. Randy in Chatt

    Either way we look at it, in the last two weeks we have lost 4 hitters with plus to plus, plus hit tools and we are keeping hitters with tremendous strikeout ratios. I was hoping to see us keep players with great hit tools and we’ve lost a ton lately. I’m at a loss.

    I would have to think there is another player in the mix for LF now. I love Heisey but LF cannot be just given to him.

    Since we are “all in” this year, I wonder what other “shocking” moves are in the works????

  23. Ron

    Walt is just not good when it comes to trades. Period. He gave up Stewart in the Rolen deal … admitting he caved in to the Jays demands for him. The Latos deal I can comfortably argue in favor of, but still felt like adding Boxberger reflected his same decision making weakness as in the Stewart deal. Now we give up 2 top 20 prospects & Wood for one guaranteed season of a LH reliever. Granted Marshall was ranked as one of the top 3 at his position (depending on which metrics you use) in the majors, but still … he is a reliever. As many respected baseball people have said, relievers are just not that valuable. Its practically a mantra and Jockety still pulls the trigger. Also, look at Wood’s numbers when pitching on the road: 8-4/3.58 ERA.

    I just don’t get it nor agree with how he executes trades.

    • MK

      At what price is a Championship. They don’t win a Division without Rolen, and before injuries he was an All Star again this year. So would I rather have Stewart or an All Star.

      One reason a team builds up the minor leagues is to use the talent to acquire the talent or money they need. This has been going on for 75 years. The Reds have just never had the minor league talent to be a player in this type game before.

      Walt is performing the way a championship GM performs. On this website especially, we get so enamored with the players we lose site that it is about winning and selling tickets at the big league level NOW.

      Walt did that with the Rolen trade and hopefully with the two in the past weeks.

      • Doug Gray

        It is arguable that they win the division with or without Rolen.

      • Stock

        First, it is hard to prove one way or the other that we won the division in 2010 because of the Rolen trade. He provided little value in the second half when we pulled in front.

        Second Rolen was an all star in 2011 but not because he was having a good season. He stunk last year.

      • MK

        He really provided the value in the first half and kept them close. I think he only had 4 of 20 HRs in 2nd half, although his Gold Glove Defense was strong all year.

        But come on, they don’t win in 2010 without him. You can really see his value by the way they dropped out of contention without him the second half last year.

      • Doug Gray

        I simply won’t agree with that. He kept them in it in the first half, but he was terrible in the second half. Overall he was quite good, but they didn’t need quite good to win it. They needed slightly above replacement. They probably would have gotten that somewhere else had they not acquired him.

      • Dave from Louisvillw

        We won the Rolen trade, and it’s not even close. I don’t understand how anyone can argue the opposite.

        The BJ’s paid his and EE’s salary the rest of 2009.
        Stewart hasn’t panned out, and is on his 4th organization.
        Roenicke is on his 3rd org, and hasn’t panned out.
        The paid the out the rest of EE’s contract and he has only devliver 1.5 WAR/yr.
        There is no way we win the division without Rolen’s 4.9 WAR

      • Doug Gray

        Stewart is also 24. The other parts mean nothing.

        Rolens 2010 WAR – 5.
        The Reds won the division by – 5.

        Odds the Reds got any kind of positive value out of 3B in 2010 if they didn’t bring in Rolen? Solid.

      • Ron

        Yeah I agree with Doug, Rolen probably wasn’t the make or break reason they made the post season. On top of it he could have gotten Rolen without giving up Stewart. We didn’t need to trade for Rolen at that deadline. The Reds were not going to make the playoffs that year anyway so there should not have been any rush.

      • MK

        So you are telling me Zack Stewart (who’s second organization traded him) who spent most of the year in AA at age 25 (the same age as Bailey and Cueto), who gave up 116 hits in 101 innings (in the minors), got a call to the bigs and went 2-6, gave up 90 hits in 67 innings with a 1.6 Whip, is even in the same league with Rolen? Please.

        We will have to agree to disagree on Scott’s 2010 importanve. But I will say, if Rolen doesn’t hit clean-up providing protection, then Votto isn’t MVP and if Votto isn’t MVP the Reds don’t win.

      • Justin

        Being that this is a site about prospects, we often get pretty wrapped up in statistics. I think what makes Rolen so valuable is who he is as a leader. If you want to argue that, a good place to start is by explaining how the Colts can go from one of the best to one of the worst when one of their 22 starters gets hurt. That seems way less statistically justifiable than 1 of 9.

        I believe I remember Votto stating that Rolen was an influence in him becoming a better defensive 1st baseman. Now we nearly have a gold glove infield.

      • Doug Gray

        If Rolen were such a leader, why did we suck so much last year? Because its all a bunch of horse crap. It is something that makes people feel better. Like the Easter Bunny.

      • zblakey

        You many not believe in the Easter Bunny or Santa Claus, but you should believe that ROlen made a difference in the clubhouse, verified by management, press (ask Fay and or Sheldon), and the players (ask Votto, Bruce, etc). Also ask his former teammates, managers. WJ knew that they needed help on/on the field and addressed it. It may not be black and white proof, but there is evidence there if you are willing to look/ be open about it.

      • Doug Gray

        What they believe made a difference doesn’t make it so. A lot of people believe in clubhouse chemistry. Reggie Jackson calls it a bunch of BS. Jim Leyland laughs at it anytime someone brings it up.

      • Justin

        I respect a lot of what you have to say on here Doug, but I think your comment is a little naive. Baseball is at its core the business of athletics. The reason people don’t get hired purely from their resume in the business world and have to do face to face interviews is for this very reason. When putting together a team, the character and mental makeup of a person is of high importance no matter what you’re assembling.

      • Doug Gray

        In the business world, others rely on you to get their job done. In baseball, it doesn’t really work that way. Me hating the second baseman isn’t going to effect my approach at the plate nor my ability to field and throw.

      • Ryan

        It may not effect your ability but having strong team chemistry is always a plus for production. Thats why buisnesses(sports or not)have and always will pay a premium for strong leaders.

      • Doug Gray

        That that is why we paid managers 7 figures…. I will continue to believe the guys who reiterate that winning teams have good chemistry and losing ones don’t and it isn’t because one team has guys who provide intangible leadership but because they have better players.

      • redsfannorth

        Bottom line is, both sides are right and wrong on this topic. It is all about the individual, and their perception of what is important. For some players, chemistry and intangibles are not important, and for others they are the most important thing. I tend to agree with Doug, in that they SHOULDN’T matter – but for those guys that need others to point them in the right direction to get the most out of their abilities why question it? I think that the right manager knows what buttons to push. That doesn’t mean that those players are weaker or needier, it just means that they have a different mental make-up.

      • Ron

        OMG. How can you possibly make a correlation of Rolen’s vs. Stewart’s talent based on ANYTHING I said dude? That has to be the most off base assumption I’ve heard in this thread. I never compared them anywhere. I merely said that I felt like they could have gotten Rolen during the off season ” without” trading Stewart. Good grief you need to learn how to comprehend people’s statements before you dive in with nonsense.

      • MK

        I understand you completely. I would have made the same trade in the offseason. Talk about nonsense, Stewart would not make the Reds pitching staff in 2012 and Rolen will start at 3B. The stats were offered to prove it. The Reds ,lost more in Encarnacion than Stewart.

        They were in the race at the deadline and Rolen immediately got hit in the head and went on the DL, plus they needed someone to teach the young guys how to be bigleaguers.

      • Ron

        Using hindsight as a basis for your argument is irrelevant. When we traded Stewart our pitching staff needed exactly what he was up until that point: A fast rising, starting prospect on the door step of the major leagues. We were running guys like Kip Wells, Micah Owings and Justin Lehr out there while we were in that race. Trading a Stewart was the last thing we needed to do in 2009.

  24. Norwood Nate

    I can’t believe it! I am beside myself. It was a difficult deal to stomach when it was just Wood and two minor leaguers rumored (Webb, Coddington). But at least it was justifiable with an extension in a win-now sort of way. This is absolutely an instance where Walt got fleeced. Incredibly short-sighted and dumb in my opinion.

    Is signing Cody Ross/Rick Ankel really going to be better than Sappelt? I doubt it. Just dumbfounded at the moment.

    • Steve

      Doug:

      Who is our closer going to be as it stands now? Have we even answered that question yet? Will it be Marshall/Masset? Do they resign Cordero? And, now that this has happened, who is our LF? Heisey or do you see Cody Ross or Ankiel being signed? It seems like we made a trade that only raises the same or now even more questions. Could you see Marshall being converted back to a starter before the season starts? Absolutely dumb deal IMO.

      • Doug Gray

        As it stands now, I say Marshall. But I think there is a 5% chance things stay as they are now. The Reds keep whispering that they are looking for a closer.

      • chiredsfan

        what is so tough to accept is a Sappelt gives you the value that Ross gives you (in a different way more speed less power)at a fraction of the cost. So now having to go pay FA money to a mediocre guy makes no sense for a small market team. But this at this point you have to because there are literally no ML ready OF with any speed (enough to spell Stubbs etc.) left on the roster.

  25. MK

    I am disappointed to lose Ronald. I got to know him a little this past season, although it was tough sometimes because he spoke very little English. A great young man. I think he will make the big leagues but I also think he factors as another Rey Olmedo.

    The Reds’ did not like Sappelt, especially Walt and Dusty. You could just tell by the way Dusty talked about him. If you met him you know he was a very cocky player. He also still had some holes in his game and if he had the same attitude as when he was in Dayton he probably thought he knew it all already.

    All that being said, unless Marshall signs for more than a year, this is really high payment for a 70-inning guy.

    • Doug Gray

      While I can’t say I have much insight to Sappelt’s attitude, I will say that given how much he changed his swing over the last two seasons, he probably adjusted his attitude from Dayton a little bit. Guys who know it all don’t go through all of that work to change something.

      • bj

        I know Sappelt and while he is a cocky/confident player on the field, he was a GREAT GUY. He has worked hard and in the words of Kid Rock. IT AINT COCKY MF IF YOU BACK IT UP. LOL. He told Rick Sweet 2 years ago in Spring Training that he would be his left fielder, Sweet didn’t even know his name, but went and looked him up, later that year Sap had made the jump to AAA and was playing left field for him. IT AINT COCKY MF IF YOU BACK IT UP.

  26. Terry M

    I have this sick feeling…..Do we even have a farm system left??

    • The Duke

      Top prospect per position:

      C: Tucker Barnhart (not counting Meso, he’s a MLB player now)
      1B: Soto
      2B: HRod
      SS: Hamilton, Gregorious
      3B: Vidal (not counting Fraizer/Francisco, they are likely MLB now)
      LF: Duran, Lutz
      CF: Lamarre
      RF: YRod

      RHSP: Corcino, Stephenson, Sulburan
      LHSP: Cingrani, Guillon

      The cubbord is far from bare, but we’ve lost a lot of depth, which in the grand scheme of things, isn’t too bad, we just have to hope the guys we have were the right guys to keep.

  27. Stock

    I disappointed as most of you are about the trade, put yourself in my shoes. I had Sappelt and Torreyes as our 3rd and 4th best prospects, ahead of Alonso. Needless to say I feel this is just a horrible trade.

    I loved the Latos trade. Felt Walt earned a high A on the trade.
    This is without a doubt an F.

    Latos and Marshall for Wood, Volquez, Boxberger and 4 of our top 5 prospects. D-

    Terrible, just terrible.

    What a sad day to be a Reds fan.

    • Doug Gray

      I actually give the two deals a combined B. Latos is an absolutely legit different maker. An elite player in all of baseball. As much as I don’t like the Marshall deal, that was a grand slam.

      • Stock

        Maybe I will when I calm down. Maybe not. Huge Sappelt and Torreyes fan. I knew you liked the first deal but a grand slam from you surprises me a little. You were pretty high on Alonso.

  28. coltholt

    I can’t say that I agree with the trade. I have as big a problem as anything with having Wood in there, but that is as much anything because he was one of my favorites, having seen him take a perfect game into the ninth against the Phillies. The poise that he showed in that game was truly imprressive.

    With the other pieces, honestly, I couldn’t help but think of what the outcry would have been on this site and laugh. The one value add of this trade is that this trade along with Latos trade has officially ended all of the crap about all of the minor leaguers who are more qualified to be the starting left fielder than Chris Heisey. Heisey may not have the .360 OBP that he had in the minors, but if he could manage to figure out the offspeed pitches coming from lefties, he could be well above average as a starter.

    Sappelt and Torreyes were good minor leaguers, but they were just that. Torreyes has potential, but a floor that is easily below the Majors. With Sappelt, Walt knew what he had. Sappelt spent all spring training with the big club as well as a cup of coffee in September.

    Is there a potential that this trade could bite, yes, but this trade was moving replaceable pieces with the biggest sacrifice being Wood, not the minor leaguers that came with him.

    • Doug Gray

      I will just strongly disagree on Heisey/Sappelt. I just can’t be convinced that Sappelt won’t significantly provide more offense than Heisey will. Outs are simply too valuable and Heisey makes a ton of them. Defensively, they are a wash. I could care less about base stealing as long as you aren’t doing it if you stink and Sappelt was held back on the steals and thus didn’t hurt anyone and as a base runner, Sappelt is fine.

  29. wanderinredsfan

    So, Does this mean that Walt and co. are ‘all-in’ on Phipps as a suitable sub off the bench? I sure hope they’re right on him, because his defense is much, much better than Sappelt’s. Hopefully, Phipps’ bat can be equal-to, or greater-than Sappelt’s going forward. Does anyone believe this will happen?

    As for Torreyes, I’m a little on the fence about his inclusion, but I think I would rather take H.Rodriguez over him in the long-run, anyways. I guess I’m just not that worried that Torreyes will become the next Pedroia. I could be wrong, but if he does, more power to Theo Epstein and his evaluating skills.

    I would much rather have kept Torreyes and Sappelt over a lot of other prospects, but I’m not overly worried that either guy will become all-star players. Of course, this trade is still a huge over-pay, because one-year of a reliever is just not worth the gamble of a young hurler and two position players who are likely to be big-league contributors over the next coming decade….no matter how dominate the reliever is late in games.

    • Doug Gray

      I would lay 1000-1 odds that Phipps is going to hit better than Sappelt. Sappelt has as much current power as Phipps, walks just as much and strikes out half as often. That math simply doesn’t work and if I know one thing, its that in baseball, math works to the 90% every time (assuming you are using the right math).

  30. Stock

    Tough to be right in this case but my guess is this trade will be considered a worse trade than the Hamilton/Volquez trade in 10 years.

    • Doug Gray

      That isn’t tough to do, because that trade wasn’t bad at all. Trade a drug addict every day of the week.

      • coltholt

        I was assuming that he meant looking back on, but I agree. I believe that they made the right move at the time, especially when two of their OF slots were filled with Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. while a young Jay Bruce was on the horizon.

      • Doug Gray

        Even looking back on it, I will never consider that anything but a good trade.

      • Ryan

        Dont understand why. Both have had a hard time staying on the field but Hamilton is one of the best hitters in the league(and has an absolute CANON for an arm). We had one great season from volquez and thats it. Terrible trade.

      • Doug Gray

        Because you trade a hard drug addict every time you get the chance to. It really is that simple. I don’t trust, nor will I ever trust, a drug addict any further than I can throw them. Josh is a big dude, I don’t think I could throw him more than 5 feet.

    • coltholt

      This just made my day. I am glad that this basis is grounded in reality. Now, remind me, which of Wood, Sappelt, or Torreyes will win the MVP in 2013?

  31. Terry M

    We should have known about Walt as he has always traded prospects for established players. The new CBA makes it a little harder to build up again. Some of the players we signed for above slot last year will not happen this year..

    • coltholt

      We have our first round pick as well as 2 supplemental picks. Those picks increase their spending limit. They either get three top 50 picks, or they can not sign one and shift that money down the draft to two or three overslot guys past the 10th round. It is harder to go overslot, but it is doable.

      • The Duke

        If you don’t sign a guy, you lose the slot money, it can’t be spread around

        You can still give up to $100,000 to anyone after rd 10 and it doesn’t count against the limit. So teams will have to take more $100,000 risks. The draft is definitely going to lose talent to college and other sports now though.

      • coltholt

        Really? I had read otherwise in the reports that I have seen. Do you have a link? I don’t have any links handy…but I will look to see if I can find it.
        Edit: I just ran by a link on baseball america which was a subsequent release which clarified what you said. I hadn’t seen that release.

      • Doug Gray

        Of course it all came with Tony LaRussa, Dave Duncan and steroid users…. When he won here, it was almost entirely with a roster he had nothing to do with. That isn’t to say he isn’t good at his job, but it is certainly worth noting.

  32. MK

    I thought he brought in Rolen, Cabrera, Gomes, Hernandez, Cairo, Nix, Rhodes, Owings, Chapman and drafted Leake. My bad.

    • Doug Gray

      Chapman had nothing at all to do with us winning in 2010. He didn’t play until August 31st. The Reds two players Walt brought in who were guys to talk about were Rolen and Leake. Everyone else was a role player type of guy who could have been replaced by lots of guys and we still would have won without a second thought to it. And that includes Rhodes, who was very good, but still just a reliever.

      • Stock

        Don’t forget Rhodes had the sore heel in the second half and couldn’t pitch often or effectively. By not pitching regularly others had to pitch more often so it probably hurt the team more than it appeared on the surface.

      • Ron

        I give Buckley and the scouting department more credit for Leake and most of our current prospects than I do Jockety. Buckley was rebuilding our farm since before Walt got here.

    • Stock

      Rolen stunk in the 2nd half when they pulled away.
      Cabrera stunk (WAR <1)
      Gomes stunk even more (WAR < 0)
      Hernandez was a part time catcher
      Cairo was the 25th player on the roster
      Nix was the 24th player on the roster and worthless the second half
      Rhodes was good the first half and worthless the second
      Owings stunk (WAR < 0)
      Chapman pitched just 13 innings
      Leake Pitched effectively and had a WAR < 0

      4 of the 8 starting spots were spoken for with players brought in before Jocketty arrived (Votto, Bruce, Phillips and Stubbs) He had two positions to fill for the 2010 season Cabrera and Gomes combined for a WAR of 0.4. This matched the WAR of Cabrera's backup (Janish). Hanigan had a higher WAR than Hernandez. In short the Reds would have won the division by even more if Jocketty had started the year with Hanigan, Heisey and Janish as opposed to Hernandez, Gomes and Cabrera. Sounds to me like the Reds won in spite of Walt not because of him.

      • MK

        Sorry I went to the games. This team stunk. Still they won and Walt added at least 40% of roster which I would say helped a little.

        And, Chapman did pick up the load for Rhodes down the stretch when they put the Cardinals away.

    • Doug Gray

      Good pick up. Probably not much more than a 6th inning type of guy, but he has ok stuff and provides depth that we need.

      • Randy in Chatt

        Doug, maybe this will pick my spirts up. Can you give us a scouting report on Judy? Please tell me he throws in the mid to high 90’s and has a hammer curve (it is my only Christmas wish).

      • Doug Gray

        I don’t want to hurt your feelings… but he throws 89-92 with a slider in the 80-83 range.

      • Randy in Chatt

        Looks like he had good minor league numbers and is only 25…maybe there’s a glimmer of Christmas spirit coming back.

        Hey Doug, w/ 37 spots now on the 40 man any ideas on anymore move?. What about Quentin (as some people have mentioned) from the CSW?

      • Stock

        Rumor has it Quentin for Hamilton,Corcino, Yorman and Cozart. Happy Holidays.

      • Randy in Chatt

        Stock, may the Ghost of Christmas Past be a hauntin’ ye.

  33. JonRyker

    Sappelt has done nothing except demonstrate that he can’t steal bases, can’t run the bases, swings at everything, and can’t hit cutoff men. He can’t hit cleanup, which makes him particularly unnecessary in this context. Travis Wood I like a lot, but he’s a fly ball pitcher, and wasn’t gonna be in the rotation soon short of a disaster. Torrelas seems very intriguing to me, but I haven’t seen him, so I’m not crying about it. This guy can close, and if they sign him, could start later…..They still need a RH enforcer to play LF…..

    • Doug Gray

      I get the feeling you never watched him in the minors. The only people who think that he swings at everything are the people who watched him in the Majors. When he got away from what got him there. Funny how small sample sizes influence peoples beliefs. In his first 41 PA, he walked 0 times and struck out 8. His next 77 he walked 7 times and struck out just 9. Which one of those guys looks like the guy from the minor leagues wearing the Sappelt jersey? The guy from the next 77 plate appearances, when he calmed down and settled in. Sure, he can’t hit clean up and he doesn’t steal bases…. but neither does Joey Votto. Or Jay Bruce. Or anyone else on the team. Travis Wood was going to be the teams likely first option in the case that they needed a starting pitcher.

      Sean Marshall, in no way, shape or form, will be starting for the Reds. He will only be closing for the Reds if they don’t get to do what they want, but according to Fay, the Reds don’t think he can close.

      • JonRyker

        You’re right. I didn’t. Brandon Larson raked in the minors. So did Arturo Defreites….Lots of guys raked in the minors. My biggest beef with Sappelt is he appears to have absolutely no idea how to play the game. Aside from that, they need a thumper in that position, and since his speed is worthless, he’s a bottom third of the order hitter on a good team….they don’t need that….

      • MK

        You are correct about the base stealing. He is bad, He was 1 for 2 in Cincy and 4 for 8 for the Bats in 2011. The year before he was 25 for 43 at three levels.Not good producation at any level

        His defensive decisions are suspect in majors and minor.

        Although he can hit Spring Training and Minor League Pitching he has yet to prove he can hit at the big leagues. If the Reds are all-in as they appear to be for 2012 I would hate to put all my eggs in his basket.

      • Doug Gray

        Jon, Brandon Larson didn’t rake in the minors until he was 25. And even then, he raked in the sense that Juan Francisco rakes. He hit bad pitchers and good ones owned him. Larson had a K/BB ratio of 4.18 from the time he was drafted until he was finished with his age 25 season. That alone tells anyone that understands how stats work, that he had no chance to hit without a drastic turn around in pitch selection.

        Sappelt on the other hand has a 1.8 K/BB rate, which is better than average and its even better in the upper minors at 1.57.

        As for you bringing up some dude from the early 70’s, he is much like Larson and Francisco, he had no clue how to wait for a pitch. He swung at everything. His minor league K/BB ratio was 3.75.

        That is why those guys couldn’t hit. That is why Juan Francisco won’t hit. Comparing them to Sappelt, is pretty much a terrible way to make your point because if Sappelt does have some sort of issue that suggests he won’t hit at the next level, it isn’t anything close to the one that those guys have.

        As for him needing speed to hit at the top of the line up, he has it. Just don’t steal with him. Steals are incredibly overrated. Gey on first base. Let the other guys drive you in. Don’t waste outs trying to move up a base when the extra base you added isn’t really doing much to actually improve your chances of scoring that one run.

      • JonRyker

        Doug,

        True, those guys had power and struck out more. Sappelt does not and does not. If you don’t have power and can’t run the bases and are clueless, you will not help a good team. He belongs on the Cubs.

        We have differences in our philosophies. Your assertions that relief pitchers are unimportant and that steals are unimportant simply don’t hold water on a real baseball field. This is the weakness of sabremetrics: no context. This isn’t home run derby. You beat good teams by having a team that is capable of winning in whatever way presents itself that day. Balance. Exert pressure. Force mistakes. Mentally dominate. It’s when you produce, not how often you produce at unimportant times. Late game relievers win games. No massaging of the numbers changes that.

        Now, they’ve gotten better with the last couple trades. Personally, I’d have traded Votto and kept Alonso, but what they’re doing makes sense in a way, provided they get a banger for LF to provide some protection….having kept Votto, though, I don’t know how they’re gonna pay that guy….

      • Doug Gray

        Jon, he CAN run the bases. He just doesn’t steal well. Don’t give him the steal sign, problem solved.

        My assertion is that bullpens are important, but individual parts of them aren’t. The group that throws 30-35% of the innings is important. The one guy who throws 4-5% isn’t.

        You beat good teams by scoring more than you allow. There are multiple ways to go about that. You can mash your way to it. You can pitch your way to it. You can do some of both. I don’t believe that in pro sports you can mentally dominate when its such a team sport and one player can’t take over a game, which in baseball they really can’t. Even a dominant pitcher can’t dominate a game unless he also hits a few HR’s in the game, because a 1-0 game isn’t out of reach.

        The team is better for 2012, without a doubt. Heck, overall, I still like the trades because Latos is a freaking stud among studs. I just think we drastically overpaid for Marshall.

      • JonRyker

        You can mash mediocre pitchers to death….Good pitchers don’t give up 3-run homers much….it’s essential to be able to manufacture runs (and steal bases) against them….those are the guys that tend to show up in the playoffs….

      • Doug Gray

        The Reds scored the second most runs in the NL last year. You manufacture runs by getting on base and then moving guys over. That is exactly what OBP is. The Reds were well above average in OBP.

      • Justin

        Other small sample sizes that influence others beliefs: Heisey can’t hit left handers. If he only got 4 more hits last season he would have batted .262 against them. Heisey hit .304 I believe in the minors against lefties (that may have been in ’09).

        If you project out Heisey’s stats to a full season, he looks strangely similar to a Mr. Stanton with the Marlins. I think we’d all take his bat in the lineup.

      • JonRyker

        Heisey doesn’t hit lefthanders or righthanders with command because he can’t hit anything on the outer quarter of the plate. This is because he steps in the bucket and pulls his front shoulder out….mashes middle-in….helpless away…..this is why Baker had to start him carefully against guys without command and why he hits late-game power-pitchers….it’s also why he’s a 4th outfielder….If the league was composed of 4 and 5 starters, like AAA is, Heisey would be a good player…..alas, it is not!

  34. The Closer

    It’s 5:45 PM…..with no news of an extension for Marshall. I’ve got a sneaking suspicion we got a 1-year rental, and Epstein will sign Free Agent Marshall next December…..so he got Wood, Sappelt, and Torreyes for free because the Cubs are not going to contend in 2012.

    • JonRyker

      Jockety said they were working on it. There is not, in fact, any hurry. Think he might want to come back if they have a good year? He’s never really won with the Cubs….

    • MK

      If you listen to the telephone conference call it sounds like Marshall is planning on testing the market at the end of the year. He even used the term “one-year” when discussing his Reds’ situation.

  35. Stock

    Doug, I just realized Todd Frazier is back in your top 10. 5 new player for writeups for your book in the last week.

    • Doug Gray

      I actually decided to just keep going as is and note that the trades were completed too far into the process. I am a few days from sending it to the printer. I had time to add Brackman to the book. Judy won’t make it.

  36. Matt McWax

    I’m a little surprised that Sappelt is valued higher than Heisey to many here. I like Sappelt ok, but probably see him as a 4th outfielder. Heisey has 3.2 WAR in about the equivalent of a complete season. I think his power is undervalued here. I don’t think Sappelt projects to hit for power (he showed a propensity to fall shy at the warning track). He will be a good line drive hitter and I could see .275 to .300 as a regular but he won’t draw a lot of walks. Heisey’s power and pretty well rounded game gives him more value potential.

    If Sappelt was 22, I could understand more, but he will be 25 in January.

    I don’t like the trade though. I think Wood will make us regret it. Plus I don’t like losing Torreyes, or any player who’s the best at something in their age group (contact hitting). I think he could turn out to be a good major leaguer and fan favorite. I would have liked to get a good starter for what we traded.

    • Doug Gray

      I see Sappelt as a .285/.340/.425 type of hitter. Heisey is more of a .250/.300/.450 hitter (as an every day guy). Defense, IMO, is a wash. Heisey has power, but is a platoon player who struggles to get on base.

  37. MDRon

    Doug, I am absolutely floored by your statement that you wouldn’t trade Sappelt straight up for Marshall. Talk about overvaluing prospects.

    • fromcubawithluv

      It is not a question of overvaluing Sappelt. It is the simple question of whether Sappelt is an everyday LF or a bench player. Doug believes that he can play everyday and there very good reasons to think that. An everyday LF is worth more than a reliever, even an elite one.

    • Doug Gray

      Ron, at best Marshall is a three win player next year. Then he is walking. Sappelt is going to provide a lot more than that and for several years as well.

      • MDRon

        There’s probably 30 – 50 people throughout baseball who can do what Sappelt can do as well as he can do it. There’s about three who can do what Marshall does. He has way more value.

      • Doug Gray

        Justin Verlander. David Price. Stephen Strasburg.

        I could go on for a while.

        Relievers simply don’t have a ton of value. Even the best ones.

      • MK

        Come on Doug 3 win/s. He had 6 wins, 34 holds and 5 saves out of 71 Cubs victories. That is he played a part in 63% of the teams victories.

        The best for the 2011 Reds was Cordero at 53%.

      • Stock

        Marshall’s WAR last year was 2.8. I don’t see him doing much better than that.

  38. Terry M

    I don’ know why this trade makes me so mad but if Marshall goes back to Chicago in 2013 I’m done with baseball for good…This and the new CBA are pushing me over the edge. When your looking for answers always look to the money. Cable and the networks don’t want small market teams in the world series. (Remember the money) The best sports enterprise is the NFL and the main reason is revenue sharing..Small market baseball teams will always have the deck stacked against them and then you do dumb trades that can come back to haunt you for years within your own division….

    • IndyRedsFan

      I agree with your comment about the disadvantage small market teams have. But I believe they can win by acquirng and developing young talent….and then replacing those players with the “next generation” when they become unaffordable.
      The Marshall trade, in my mind is simply nuts. And while I’m glad we have Latos…I believe we would have been much better off trading Votto for someone simliar to Latos, and keeping Alonso and the rest.

      • Doug Gray

        While it works in theory like that, what happens when the big market teams get as good at replacing their young talent with more young talent and can spend $150M? Well, we are about to really start finding out because the Texas Rangers now have the money to spend with anyone outside of the Yankees and they draft/develop as well as just about anyone. If other teams pick up on that too, small market teams have no chance.

    • JonRyker

      I think the mediocrity of the NFL product is more a reflection of an undiscriminating, drunken fan base than a indictment of baseball. Baseball has a different structure, not so much a league as a series of competitive franchises. It’s always been that way. It’s always been business first. NFL is a centrally-planned, marketing machine….makes more money, but in my view a deadly dull product, which explains the popularity of college football as a better alternative. Baseball has no such problem….it just isn’t efficient…it is, however, a better product in my view…..

  39. boobs

    I think this is probably, historically speaking, the most lopsided, damaging trade in the history of baseball. The only chance the Reds EVER had of getting back to the playoffs lie in Sappelt in left (who was absolutely POISED to hit about 35 homers next year and offers 10-WAR defense) and getting Travis Wood 225 innings. (He will have a Tom Glavine-like Cy Young season in 2012, there is NO DOUBT. Look up the numbers. It’s there.) All we got back is a reliever, whose innings don’t even really count. This is like the Royal Family trading Pippa straight up for a box of sterling silverware, i.e., it would NEVER HAPPEN. Walt should not only lose his job; this trade should be voided by Major League Baseball, and he should lose his GM license for GROSS INCOMPETENCE. I’m probably never going to watch baseball again.

    • Terry M

      Wow…Didn’t know their is a GM license ? Doug Fay talked about the trade and the outrage on the Marshall trade on the internet. As far as watching baseball I can always golf (If I could)

    • Steve

      Boobs:

      I know that you think we are a bunch of idiots. But, you would have to admit that trading a starter that gives you at least some starting rotation depth and a young LF which is a position we are weak in right now for a reliever that is not even certain to close which is our other weak area makes no sense.

      • boobs

        I don’t think any of you are idiots. I know Doug is extremely knowledgeable and a very nice guy to boot, and I’m sure all of the commenters here know what they’re talking about as well. I think you’re all overreacting though. It’s two guys who will have no impact this year and may never have impact at the major league level, and a guy who got beat around pretty bad in the majors last year. Not really worth losing your shirt over. Could turn out to be a huge haul for the Cubs, or, more likely, it will turn out to be a moderate score. Marshall is at least a proven major leaguer, if only a reliever. Relievers still count, and are still necessary to complete the game. All that being said, enjoy the holiday!

      • Doug Gray

        Boobs, A few things….

        First off, I am a huge fan. Keep up the good work.

        Secondly, I hate the trade. I really do. But it isn’t one that is going to set the Reds back years or anything. I do think it makes them a little worse this year unless every starter is healthy all season, which isn’t likely. I am just more bothered by how much potential value was given up for one season of a player who is going to be on the field for less than 5% of the time. It doesn’t make sense to me to trade a guy I see as a starting left fielder or a back end of the rotation guy along with Torreyes. The Reds clearly don’t see Sappelt in the same light as me. With that said, I feel confident in my views on him.

    • JonRyker

      Boobs,

      I tend to agree with your assessment of this situation. The hysteria is a little surprising, as people appear to value Sappelt more than Alonso or Grandal, and Travis Wood over a proven dominant reliever. Now, unless a bunch of complete games suddenly breaks out, the assertion that short relievers are a waste is patently silly.

  40. zblakey

    Doug,
    Happy Holidays to you and your family! Thanks for all that you provide here all year long! It is much appreciated!

  41. Doug Gray

    Also, this is far and away the most commented topic ever. Awesome.

    • The Duke

      Between this, the first Marshall trade thread, the Latos trade thread and an AQA post, this has to be far and away the most commented week the site has ever had.

      • Doug Gray

        Nah. Draft week usually gets a TON of comments. Not as many on one thread, but because I spread it out over about 5 posts instead of 1.

  42. maui red

    Obviously the first priority is closer, but they traded away two solid contenders for the LF job. If they really want to make a splash, sign this kid Yoenis Cespedes. Walt and Bob both said they’re all in this season. Put your money where your mouth is. This guy looks like Haney Ramirez as an outfielder. Big time power, speed, and hitting ability. In alot of ways this could be similar to the Chapman deal. Nobody in the media ever thought the Reds would sign Chapman either. And I remember the buzz the signing made before the 2010 season. That’s when I really thought the Reds had a legit shot at the playoffs. The Cardinals are aging, but they still have the best top of rotation and lineup in the division. The Reds have not had a cleanup hitter since Rolen hurt his shoulder two years ago. Jay Bruce can’t do it there yet. Brandon Phillips is a great player, but it’s a joke to have him hit cleanup. If this kid lives up to the hype, he could be the right handed power hitter to complete the lineup and this team.

    • JonRyker

      I’d have to say, the jury is still out on the wisdom of the Chapman deal…..

      • Alan Horn

        I would say very much out. It is a tough call in saying that their hitting/pitching skills will transfer to the majors. Fielding and speed are a much easier call. Basically, if they have never played in the majors, you don’t know if they can. Some are a much lessor gamble.

      • Doug Gray

        While the jury is out on whether he is worth what they paid him in terms of value, I think the jury has long since been finished with the wisdom of the deal. It was a great idea to make the deal as the Reds, even if it doesn’t work out. That is a risk worth taking.

  43. seadog101967

    Be patient people. Walt is not done. Do you really think he will go into 2012 with 3 outfielders (Heisey,Stubbs,Bruce). Do you really think Sappelt was the answer in left field? He will deal for an outfielder (maybe, more than one). I think Walt likes Heisey in his bench role.

    The Red’s have six starting pitchers (if you include Chapman) for 5 spots. Depth is important, and Wood had his chance.

    Torreyes,Sappelt may end up being average MLB players. They are not needed for 2012. Walt is playing for 2012. People, we have a small window in this market. I applaud Walt for having the guts to go for it while we have the chance.

    As for Marshall. Middle relievers in my opinion are “underrated”. Marshall is not your average middle reliever, any team in baseball would be happy to have him. I think that Walt will sign him to an extension. I Don’t think he will be the closer. Our bullpen wil be lights out-Marshall,Ondrusek,Smith,Arredondo,Fisher–The best (with closer pot.) Masett.

    Just an awesome site Doug,, Thank You…

    • The Duke

      As of right now, i’d say the 5 man OF is:

      Bruce
      Stubbs
      Heisey
      Frazier
      Phipps

      Stubbs and Bruce are obvious starters, then a 3 way battle for LF with Heisey having a healthy head start. Heisey is also the backup for CF, Phipps can play both corner spots and Frazier can likely play both corner spots as well. Phipps could play an OK CF in a pinch.

      So while there is no obvious starter/upgrade for LF, there are options currently on the 40 man.

      • Doug Gray

        Phipps has no business on the 25 man. He is replaceable by Heisey. Heisey isn’t really a worse defender, but Heisey has a clue at the plate and I don’t think Phipps could hit MLB pitchers at all right now. The Reds need at least one more outfielder on their team.

      • The Duke

        Not saying he is a great choice, just that he is on the 40 man and no one has established an assumption on left field

    • Doug Gray

      I honestly believe that Sappelt is a slightly above average left fielder if given 150 starts. Clearly the Reds don’t agree with me there. I hope they are more right than I am.

    • Alan Horn

      What has he got left to trade? Maybe Chapman? We need to hang onto Soto, Gregorius and Hamilton. There is not much left. I don’t feel Yorman has much value yet(nor Vidal). We are almost going to have to look at free agency in the next several years in order to improve. Someone mentioned trading Votto could replenish our farm system quickly. We can’t do that until we know if Soto is for real. We have put all our marbles on Latos and Marshall. I think we will be in great shape if they stay healthy(I know… a big if).

      • The Duke

        I’ve been a big proponent of trading Chapman, but I wonder if he really has much trade value. Every issue we see (3rd pitch, loses control big time occassionally, can’t go consecutive days much, etc…) everyone else can see too.

  44. Krozley

    Merry Christmas everyone!

    There are a number of options on the free agent market for a 4th/5th outfielder that will probably become affordable before February. Ryan Ludwick, Raul Ibanez, Luke Scott, and J.D. Drew are some risks they could take for a power lefty bat in hopes they return to previous glory. If not, Frazier and Francisco are the lead internal options. Is it possible for Danny Dorn to have a shot with a strong spring? Doubt it. Somebody will be brought in to be the lefty off the bench/5th OF.

    • JonRyker

      I think they have more than enough power LH bats….they need a RH one…

      • Krozley

        I meant for off the bench. There is zero power from Cairo, Janish, and Hanigan. For the two remaining spots, Frazier and Francisco would be bigger bats off the bench, but neither of them are really outfielders. If they get a true outfielder for the bench, I believe it should be a lefty with some pop. Votto and Bruce are the only other lefties.

      • The Duke

        My prediction on the bench is:

        Hanigan, C
        Cairo, 3B/2b/1b
        Francisco, 3B/1B
        Frazier, 3B/SS/2B/1B/LF/RF
        Phipps, OF

        Phipps may get replaced by a FA vet. If they think Cozart can play 145+ games, than Frazier is a passable backup at SS, and along with Francisco gives them power from both sides off the bench.

  45. sagevic

    I think it came down to Stubbs, Heisey, and Sappelt all being too similar to keep all three. They weren’t sending Stubbs in the deal as an added player. Heisey’s time with the team and his popularity with the casual fan gave him the edge over Sappelt.

    Sappelt may have the best hit tool of the three. He may also get himself out chasing first pitches too much to stick in the Majors. We just don’t know yet.

    None of them IMO hit enough to be elite Left Fielders, even with plus defense thrown in. As for Phipps, he needs to play in right where his arm can make a bigger impact. While Bruce is healthy I keep Phipps in AAA unless he just hits so much he HAS to be promoted.

    • Alan Horn

      I think all three are young enough that they can improve on their weaknesses and become better players. On the other hand, they may not.
      I think we will get a chance to see on Heisey, Stubbs and Francisco.
      Walt mentioned Francisco could also see some time in LF as well as Frazier. I believe all 4 could do at least as well as what we can get off the scrap heap. We don’t have the pieces(that we can afford to lose) to trade for anyone else.

  46. Curcoach

    I won’t trade Dave Sappelt for anybody! A kid that grew up with a batting cage in his yard, is going to hit in the MLB for sure! You just don’t trade future batting champions!