New 21-25 Top Prospects Doug Gray January 12, 2012 30 Comments With the Reds trading away Alonso, Grandal, Boxberger, Torreyes and Sappelt the Reds lost 5 of their Top 25 prospects in my rankings. Here are the new guys ranked #21-25 now that those guys have departed (For full scouting reports on these guys and about 85 more guys, click on that link above and buy the 2012 (Reds) Prospect Guide): 21. Donnie Joseph – LHP – 23 years old – AA Background: 2009 Draft – 3rd Round The good: Improved his fastball velocity, throwing as high as 96 and has a plus secondary pitch. Needs to work on: Throwing his slider for strikes. When he couldn’t throw it in the strikezone, hitters sat on his fastball and hit him hard. 22. Junior Arias – 3B – 19 years old – Rookie Ball Background: NDFA – 2008 The good: Above average power today and a good hit tool. Needs to work on: Plate discipline is an issue, as was his defense at third base in his first season there. 23. Juan Duran – OF – 19 years old – Low A Background: NDFA – 2008 The good: Has plus raw power and good power to all fields today, arguably the best current power in the system. Needs to work on: Cutting down on the strikeouts and his athleticism as he gets more and more acclimated with his size. 24. Pedro Villarreal – RHP – 23 years old – AA Background: 2008 Draft – 7th Round The good: Above average fastball, good slider and a solid change up with good control. Needs to work on: Despite the stuff and good control, he doesn’t miss many bats. 25. Nick Christiani – RHP – 23 years old – AAA Background: 2009 Draft – 13th Round The good: Above average fastball with good movement and a good slider. Needs to work on: Went to AAA and his strikeout rate was nearly cut in half. He has the stuff, just needs to figure out how to make it work at the next level. Here is the updated Top 25 Prospect List, with links to the original post with write-ups for each player. Player 1 Devin Mesoraco 2 Daniel Corcino 3 Yorman Rodriguez 4 Robert Stephenson 5 Billy Hamilton 6 Zack Cozart 7 Neftali Soto 8 Didi Gregorius 9 Henry Rodriguez 10 Todd Frazier 11 Gabriel Rosa 12 Kyle Lotzkar 13 David Vidal 14 Tony Cingrani 15 JC Sulbaran 16 Ryan LaMarre 17 Donald Lutz 18 Tucker Barnhart 19 Sean Buckley 20 Amir Garrett 21 Donnie Joseph 22 Junior Arias 23 Juan Duran 24 Pedro Villarreal 25 Nick Christiani 30 Responses Reds prospects « 2r2d January 12, 2012 […] RedsMinorLeagues.com posted the Cincinnati Reds new Top 25 Prospect List and I am still very pleased with what they have in the farm system for the future. Doug Gray, @dougdirt24 says, “With the Reds trading away [Yonder] Alonso, [Yasmani] Grandal, [Brad] Boxberger, [Ronald] Torreyes and [Dave] Sappelt the Reds lost 5 of their Top 25 prospects in my rankings.” Even with trading away these players I still think the Reds have a great batch of young talented players ready for the future and I am very confident that Walt Jocketty will get more great prospects when they are needed by trade or draft. […] Jimmer January 12, 2012 Really hoping Yorman bounces back this year. The Duke January 12, 2012 He had a rough year personally last year. Hopefully things have settled down and his head is on straight this year. He flashed huge potential when he did play in 2011. sultan of swaff January 12, 2012 Good list. I especially agree w/ the order of the top 6. After that I suppose most of those guys are interchangeable, but I’m not getting Soto at 7. I just see him getting exposed when he faces better pitching. I wouldn’t have LaMarre that high, but I feel he has a much better chance of spending a day in the majors than Soto. LaMarre’s floor is more solid, less one dimensional, and his style of play is more desirable in today’s environment. That said, here’s hoping they both figure it out. Doug Gray January 12, 2012 With Soto, he has a good hit tool and plus power. The plate discipline issues need to be worked out still, but he isn’t a “swing at everything thrown” guy, he is just an aggressive guy. There is a difference between the two and I think he has a chance to develop the plate discipline to allow his hit tool to play to its actual value and hit .280-.290. He probably won’t ever walk a ton, but if he can get to the point where he is a .275 hitter, he can hit 35 HR’s. The Duke January 12, 2012 My top 26 1. Mesoraco 2. Corcino 3. Hamilton 4. Stephenson 5. Cozart 6. Gregorious 7. YRod 8. HRod 9. Vidal 10. Sulburan 11. Frazier 12. Duran 13. Soto 14. Cingrani 15. Lamarre 16. Renken 17. Phipps 18. Waldrop 19. Barnhart 20. Greene 21. Arias 22. Crabbe 23. Villarreal 24. Smith 25. Lutz 26. Lotzkar Lotzkar needs to show me a full, healthy year before I put him too high. Potential high risers this year are Lotzkar, Lutz, Cingrani DaveCT January 12, 2012 While Did is i am sure a gregarious fellow, as The General, he most certainly needs to be Gregorious. fromcubawithluv January 12, 2012 lol The Duke January 12, 2012 Damn you autocorrect! DaveCT January 12, 2012 Hats off to The General’s greatest supporter! Dick January 13, 2012 Four Dayton Dragons in the top ten. The system does have a solid foundation. MDRon January 12, 2012 My fastest riser this year is Rosa. Krozley January 12, 2012 From Mark Sheldon: A source told MLB.com on Wednesday that Madson will get a one-year guaranteed contract that pays him $6 million in 2012 with an $11 million option for 2013 that carries a $2.5 million buyout. Some of the money will be spread out over four years. That makes it even better, but that seems to suggest that the Reds are trying to creatively account for the salary which doesn’t make much sense if they truly have much additional salary room to work with (i.e. it seems that the salary budget isn’t as high as they originally said). sultan of swaff January 12, 2012 That’s pretty clever. If the Red’s do well and get the bump in attendance, you could make the argument to pick up the option. Then it becomes 2yrs/~$18mil, right? I’m OK with that too. Might not hurt to take the best college closer w/ our supplemental pick. Getting a fast riser could hedge against losing both Marshall and Madson next offseason. Doug Gray January 12, 2012 I wonder if they would be allowed to decline the option, offer him the 12.1M arbitration number and get a pick if he walks? I don’t know the rules on that kind of thing. coltholt January 12, 2012 The problem with that is you risk paying him 14.6 million for 2012 instead of 11. Granted, if he has a banner year, he will decline and look for his three to four year deal…but you would have to be really sure he wouldn’t accept. sagevic January 12, 2012 Deferred money can ba a method cash strapped teams sign players, but the most common use of it is strictly for business reasons. The money is guarranteed, so let it make more money in the hands of an investment firm. Not every player is going to go along with that, but by allowing the club to defer the money the team takes on all the risk, as they player will always be paid the minimum amount in the contract over the same number of years. If the player simply took the money in a standard contract the return may be greater but the risk would be all his. MK January 12, 2012 Do the rescent trades improve the status of a Barnhart and Lutz since there is more or an organizational need at their positions meaning quicker advancement and opportunity? The Duke January 12, 2012 In terms of evaluation, every site I read says ignore if they are blocked or are needed, they are what they are. Value to an org can be different. Doug Gray January 12, 2012 It may create more opportunity, but I don’t think it will advance them any quicker than they would have. Neither guy was really blocked by anyone at the next stop or two before the trades. MK January 12, 2012 Corcino, Joseph, Barnhart and Christiani get Spring Training Invitations. In addition to the exposure it is great for them meaning $200 per diem per day more than the guys in minor league camp. The Duke January 12, 2012 A little surprised Corcino is there since he is only 21 and will likely be in A+. Barnhard’s a no brained because you need lots of C’s for spring training and the other two are upper level minors relief pitchers. Doug Gray January 12, 2012 Always good for those guys to get some exposure, and for the younger guys they might even pick up something very valuable from the MLB guys by just being around them. bj January 12, 2012 I think Ravin is ready for the top 25 Doug Gray January 12, 2012 I still have him in the 30’s. I like his stuff a ton. Need to see more consistency though. wanderinredsfan January 12, 2012 Curious as to why Sulbaran is ranked so low? I’d consider him on par with Corcino stuff-wise, and I prefer his projectability more. Control issues aside, I just can’t see how he’s outside anyone’s top-10, let alone ranked lower than Lotzkar or Cingrani. sagevic January 12, 2012 I like the talent that Ravin and Sulburan have, but after the number of years they have in teh system it’s harder to project them reaching their potential ceilings and they look like they’ll more likely hit their floors. You never know, but they don’t look like breakout candidates to me anymore. Doug Gray January 12, 2012 Sulbaran, stuff wise, I would rank just a little below Corcino. Probably on par with Lotzkar. Probably a little bit ahead of Cingrani (because he has three solid pitches, while Cingrani only has two right now). The control issues is what has Sulbaran a little lower for me. With that said, he is going to be on my breakout players list, but that won’t be out for a while until we are closer to the season. Nick January 23, 2012 What about Bill Rhinehart? The Reds traded for him mid season last year from the Nationals. But if you combine his stats from both teams he hit 28 HR’s w/ BA .284 w/ OBP .380, 88 RBI’s and 89K’s in 391AB’s at the double A level. You have Soto listed number 7 and his stats last year were 31 HR’s w/ BA .278 w/ OBP .333 80 RBI’s and 98K’s in 396 AB’s in double A with 17 AB’s coming at AAA last season. Doug Gray January 23, 2012 Rhinehart is a little old and fell outside of the Top 40. If Rhinehart were 22 like Soto was, he would be a top 10-15 prospect. But he was 26. He is listed in the 2012 Prospect Guide though because I think there is a chance he still finds himself in the Majors at some point.