Minor League Game Review – 5/19/12 Doug Gray May 20, 2012 12 Comments 5/19 Game Review Louisville won 9-2. Box Score Kristopher Negron went 3-6 with a HR (3), 3 RBI, a steal (15) and 2 runs. Chris Valaika went 3-4 with a walk, HR (3), 2 RBI and 2 runs. Bill Rhinehart went 2-5 with an RBI. Neftali Soto went 2-5 with a HR (4) and 3 RBI. Danny Dorn went 2-3 with a walk, 2 doubles and 2 runs. Sean Gallagher went 0-1 with 2 walks and 2 runs at the plate. He allowed 1 run in 6 innings with 4 walks and 5 strikeouts on the mound. Carlos Fisher threw a shutout 9th inning with a strikeout. Game notes Kristopher Negron is heating up, hitting .297/.350/.486 over his last 10 games. Chris Valaika also seems to be warming up, hitting at a .297/.333/.514 clip over his last 10 games. The 9 run outburst was only the second time in May that the team topped 5 runs in a game. Pensacola won 6-5. Box Score Ryan LaMarre went 3-4 with 2 doubles and 2 runs. Brodie Greene went 2-5 with a double, 2 RBI and a run. Joel Guzman went 2-4 with a walk, HR (6) and 3 RBI. David Vidal went 2-5 with an RBI. Kyle Lotzkar threw 4 shutout innings with 4 walks and 7 strikeouts. Curtis Partch threw 1.1 shutout innings of relief. Donnie Joseph threw a hitless 9th inning with a walk and a strikeout for the save. Game notes Ryan LaMarre continues to hit well, now sitting at .345/.472/.414 in May. Kyle Lotzkar lowered his ERA to 1.10, but didn’t have the best outing as he only went 4 innings due to a high pitch count because of his inability to consistently throw strikes. Donnie Joseph threw a shutout inning to lower his ERA to 0.40 and pick up his 9th save. Bakersfield won 4-2 in 16 innings. Box Score Theo Bowe went 2-3 with 3 walks and a run. Donald Lutz went 0-4 with 3 walks and a run. Tucker Barnhart went 2-5 with 2 walks and a run. Travis Mattair went 4-7 with a double and 2 RBI. Jaren Matthews went 2-7 with a double and RBI. Justice French allowed 2 runs in 6 innings with 3 strikeouts. Pat Doyle threw a perfect inning of relief with a strikeout. Brian Pearl threw 2 perfect innings of relief with 3 strikeouts. Daniel Wolford threw 2 perfect innings of relief with a strikeout. Chris Joyce threw 3 shutout innings with 2 strikeouts. Michael Griffin threw 2 shutout innings with a walk and 2 strikeouts. Game notes The Blaze pitching staff did an outstanding job allowing just 2 runs over 16 innings. The bullpen combined for 10 shutout innings of relief with just 4 hits and a walk. Billy Hamilton stole his 40th base and was caught his 10th time. The Blaze were caught stealing 5 times in 6 attempts on the night. Theo Bowe must LOVE California right about now. He is 11-19 with 4 walks (.579/.680/.947) since being called up from Dayton. Dayton lost 14-3. Box Score Juan Perez went 1-2 with a walk and a run. Ryan Wright went 2-4 with a double and 2 RBI. Kyle Waldrop went 1-3 with a run and a walk. Brandon Dailey went 1-4 with a run. Game notes This game was ugly. The Dragons pitching staff had8 walks and 8 strikeouts in the game and gave up two home runs. Game preview Team 1st half 2nd half Time Probable Box Score Listen Live Watch Live Louisville 14-30 N/A 1:35pm Villarreal Here Here Here Pensacola 21-22 N/A 3:05pm Corcino Here Here Here Bakersfield 24-18 N/A 5:00pm TBA Here Here N/A Dayton 15-28 N/A 2:00pm Robles Here Here N/A 12 Responses Bailey May 20, 2012 For what it’s worth, of all qualifying relievers according to Fangraphs, Marshall has the second best xFIP and SIERA in the majors (behind Chapman in both of course) and a BABIP of .488. I would let him close for awhile longer to see if he can get his production to match his advanced stats. Doug Gray May 20, 2012 Yeah, a .488 BABIP is crazy. It is going to normalize and when it does, he is going to once again be one of the best relievers in all of baseball. Brad May 20, 2012 Doug: Any chance we can get your opinion on an organizational depth chart in terms of prospescts? I saw on MLB.com that of our top 20 7 are SP, 3 RP, etc. Did not know if you had something like that or would open a thread we could discuss it. Especially before the draft, see what the strengths and weaknesses are for the system. Brad Doug Gray May 20, 2012 Well, even the Milb.com rankings are moot at this point given that several of the guys from that list are no longer prospects and then performance has bumped a guy or two up and a guy or two down. But, with the draft, you always draft the best player available, regardless of their position. Prospects fail at a high enough rate that you don’t worry about the position they play. If a situation comes up 3-6 years later where you have two guys worthy of playing in the Majors at the same spot, then you trade one for something you don’t have. With that said, I would not be surprised to see the Reds draft a few polished college guys in the first 5 rounds to send to Dayton who is struggling on offense in the worst kind of way. The team is a little thin just about everywhere at this point though with the recent graduations and trades in the past offseason. wanderinredsfan May 20, 2012 I think we’ll see the Reds draft high-ceiling High Schoolers in the early part of the draft. I suspect more college guys will get picked earlier this draft, which would mean some really promising High Schoolers dropping to the Reds’ slot. I also expect the first pick to be a position player, especially since last year’s draft was somewhat pitching heavy early on. RobL May 20, 2012 The draft’s strength this year does rest in the high schoolers. With three picks in the toven top 60 I would guess two of them would be high schoolers. Regardless of who they take, I hope they take the best available. Terry M May 20, 2012 Since I’m somewhat new to the new lingo ( I do comprehend OPS) somebody please explain BABIP to me. If this was done before I guess I didn’t pay attention. I know innings pitched is in BABIP ? Thanks Doug Gray May 20, 2012 BABIP = Batting Average on Balls In Play. The theory out there is, that pitchers simply don’t control that average on balls in play except to a very, very small extent. 90% of pitchers in baseball fall between the .290-.310 range over a large sample size of 2 seasons or more. There is a lot of things that go into the theory. If you want to really dive into it, you can read more about it here: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/babip/ The formula for calculating BABIP is (hits-home runs)/(at bats against-home runs-strikeouts+sac flies). Home runs are not part of the equation because they are ‘not in play’, ie, fieldable. jimmy May 20, 2012 Batting Average on Balls In Play MK May 20, 2012 David Vidal starting to hit at AA – 3 hits the last 2 games. Doug Gray May 20, 2012 Yeah, I am interested in seeing how he has adjusted over the next week or so. wanderinredsfan May 20, 2012 Villareal and Corcino with a couple of good outings today. They seem to be settling in just fine with their promotions. I’d love to see a 2013 AAA staff of Villareal, Sulbaran, Corcino, Lotzkar, and Brackman/Gallagher. The depth could be real important towards acquiring a legitimate RH bat for 3B or LF.