With the draft over and it being nearly midseason, I thought it would be the perfect time to bring out an updated Top 10 Prospect list with the new draft picks added.
1. Daniel Corcino – RHP – AA Pensacola
Corcino was the highest rated prospect coming into the season who is still prospect eligible and he has not done anything to change that. He is a 21 year old in AA with a 3.77 ERA and while he had a bit of a slow start in the strikeout department, he has made the adjustment and has 37 strikeouts and 13 walks in his last 31 innings (6 starts). He has two above-average pitches right now and a solid third pitch that he can throw for strikes.
2. Billy Hamilton – SS – A+ Bakersfield
Hamilton has had the best season of anyone in the Reds system from the position players. He is hitting .320/.405/.445 with 71 steals, 34 walks and 47 strikeouts. On top of that, he has also improved his error rate so far this season. He has some plus tools to his game and his numbers have been nothing short of outstanding this year.
3. Robert Stephenson - RHP – RK+ Billings
2011′s first round draft pick has yet to make his debut as the Reds held him back in extended spring training to work on learning a circle change and plan to send him to Billings when their season begins on June 20th. Armed with an above-average to plus fastball and an above-average breaking ball he has all of the tools to project as a top end starting pitcher.
4. Nick Travieso – RHP – Yet to be determined
While Travieso has yet to sign his contract, it is expected he will sign rather quickly. Much like Stephenson, Travieso has yet to make his debut, but also features an above-average to plus fastball and an above-average breaking ball. Like Stephenson he also needs to work on his change up, but has what you want to see from a guy who could project as a front end starting pitcher.
5. Tanner Rahier – SS – Yet to be determined
The Reds second round pick from the 2012 draft has already signed his contract and is getting ready to begin his season on June 20th, likely with the AZL Reds. While Rahier isn’t expected to stick at shortstop long term, he should be able to slide over to third base just fine if he outgrows the position. He has a whole lot of power potential and there is still a chance he can remain up the middle.
6. Didi Gregorius – SS – AA Pensacola
Gregorius has had a bit of an up and down season so far, hitting .333 in both April and so far in June, but slumped in May where he hit just .220. He has all of the defensive tools you want to see for a player to be considered strong up the middle. At the plate he is a high contact hitter who has some power potential but hasn’t quite figured out how to use it consistently in games yet.
7. Henry Rodriguez – 3B – AA Pensacola
While Rodriguez is currently on the disabled list with a broken thumb, he has had himself a really strong season with the time he has played. Before the injury the switch hitter was batting .348 and playing a solid third base. He has always been a strong hitter for average and moving to third base makes him an unconventional guy at the position, but I think he could be valuable there with a high average, solid on-base skills and solid defense.
8. Jesse Winker – OF – Yet to be determined
Winker, like Rahier, has already signed his contract and will begin his professional career on June 20th, likely with the AZL Reds. The supplemental first rounder projects as a corner outfield or perhaps a first baseman if he fills out enough and loses too much speed. Despite being limited to a corner position, his bat projects well. He is said to have a very advanced approach and good future power potential who can hit to all fields.
9. Kyle Lotzkar – RHP – AA Pensacola
Lotzkar has been through a whole lot since being drafted by the Reds back in 2007. There have been several injuries and a whole lot of missed time, rehabbing and even re-learning new mechanics. If he can manage to throw three innings in his next start he will set a new career high for innings in a season. Despite all of that, he is performing very well this season with a combined ERA of 2.53 between Bakersfield and Pensacola. Like Corcino he had an adjustment period in AA, but in his last three starts he has 23 strikeouts and just 3 walks over 18 innings. With two above-average pitches and a solid third one he could become a solid middle of the rotation pitcher in the future if he can stay healthy and continue to build up his innings.
10. Gabriel Rosa – 3B – Yet to be determined
The Reds 2nd rounder from 2011 is just 18 years old and has a professional season under his belt. He may return to the AZL or could head to Billings on June 20th. Rosa has some big power potential in his bat, but he does need to hone in his plate approach some if last year is an indication of where he is at in that regard. He was solid defensively at third base after being a shortstop in high school. He is a raw player, but he has some impressive tools to work with.
Glad to see you found your new Yorman with Rosa. I agree that he has a ton of potential, but not much to show for it. Give me Lutz or Vidal for sure. If Rosa hits this season, then he flies up.
Eh, I had Rosa ranked higher than those two guys last year and neither has really done much to show me they have jumped ahead of him at this point. Lutz has hit for a lot of power in a hitters league, but is struggling with his plate discipline. Vidal hit well in a hitters league, but has not shown the adjustment to AA yet. His upside isn’t the same as it is with Rosa.
I have to admit, I fully expected the first questioning of my rankings to be about a certain left handed pitcher with dominant numbers not being on this list.
I’m not really questioning your rankings, as I know your methodology of power is king. Or power potential.
But I’d like to point out about Lutz plate discipline, he has the same K percentage as Bruce did at high A. And his walk rate. is 7% compared to 8%. I’m not comparing the two as prospects, but I don’t know if you had issues with Bruce at that level (in regards to walk rate), when Lutz is very similar. Also, I’m not going into anything like iso or slugging because Cal is much different then FSL.
Bruce was significantly younger at the same stage, so it certainly made it a bit more acceptable. Now, I will give that Lutz is probably just as baseball young at this point as Bruce was at 20. Of course, Bruce was also playing center field at the time, while Lutz is a poor left fielder at this point in time. Huge, huge difference.
Some people will point out though that Bruce’s discipline in the minors is probably why he struggled early on in his career as a Major Leaguer.
Fair enough. Thank you for pointing out that Lutz is relatively new to baseball, and that kind of counteracts the age difference. I must admit that I haven’t taken into account Lutz’s defensive prowess, or lack thereof.
The one thing I need to point out is that while Lutz is young in baseball terms, it doesn’t really counteract things. It just means he is going to be older and have less time to build up to his peak value (generally age 27-28) before he begins his decline period. So when a younger player gets there sooner, they are providing more value in their careers and that is really what I prospect based on, the value a player is going to provide in their career.
ii won’t argue with your methodology. I have the real young guys (Rahier, Winker, Rosa) lower because I want to see something from them at the professional level first. I do keep them in mind as potential fast risers. The only exception I give to that is the first round picks given of everyone that was available with their first pick, that is the guy they wanted, and that thinking is helped along by Chris Buckley’s incredible track record of success with 1st rd picks.
Four out of the ten have never played an inning of professional ball, yet they are ranked above Cingrani, who has dominated in 3 levels? I get that these guys have good potential, but I would have thought a “mid season” top ten would heavily reflect performance in the first half of the season, and they haven’t performed anything at all.
My lists are typically based on a combination of potential and likelihood of reaching that potential. Cingrani has dominated 3 levels, but he has done so in a way that hasn’t really answered any questions that were on him when he was drafted and that was “can he start” and I still don’t know if he can. Performance honestly doesn’t go into rankings this high as much as it does later in the rankings where the ‘upside guys’ are generally gone. At this point on a list, I am at least, looking at what a guy will be in the future, rather than what he is now. If I were simply looking at how good of a player a guy is now, it would be full of guys in AA/AAA.
OK, I get that (and even agree with it). But you include Stephenson, even though they have held him back in extended spring training to teach him a third pitch, one he has yet to even try throwing in competition. So, how can you say the questions about him are answered to a greater degree than about Cingrani, who has now dominated up to the AA level, consistently throwing enough innings to qualify for “quality starts” in the majors? I think we will just have to respectfully disagree on this one. I am, of course, hoping that Stephenson turns out to be everything you think he might be, but I think the “might” is still there for him more than for Cingrani.
Well, just about every pitcher coming out of high school needs to really work on their third pitch. In isn’t really comparable to a college guy still needing to make significant strides not only with one pitch, but with two. If Stephenson, in 3 years, is throwing 75% fastballs and not throwing a good secondary pitch a majority of the time he throws it, he probably will also find himself being questioned as a future starting pitcher.
Any word on when Henry Rodriguez will return from injury?
As far as I know, he is in Arizona right now. John Fay tweeted the other day that Janish and Rodriguez were still a bit aways and that Janish was closer to returning.
How has Cingrani plowing through 3 levels of professional ball not answered any questions about his ability to start? Doug, I like your site, and usually agree with your opinions but that is absurd. One could argue that Joseph, Cingrani, Lutz, Vidal, Sulbaran, Soto, LaMarre, Wright, Mugarian, Cisco, etc. I could go on. If this list is based on “potential” where is Drew Cisco? Wes Mugarian? At some point you have to reward success and there is no excuse for leaving a guy who has a sub 1.25 ERA in the most hitter friendly league in the minors. THEN he made the “biggest” jump in the minors to AA and has a 1.42 ERA through 2 starts going 6 + IP in BOTH starts.
Because Cingrani is still out there throwing 80% fastballs and not showing much confidence in his offspeed stuff or much consistency with his offspeed stuff being that good. He will flash both the slider and change up being quality pitches, but more often than not they aren’t that good and he simply doesn’t throw them enough. He hasn’t shown me that he is a starter in the Major Leagues at this point. Until he does show me something, he is questionable. Sulbaran almost made the list. Cingrani probably would have been after him. Cisco doesn’t have the same kind of potential as these guys do, even if he is back to full strength.
When Cingrani shows better secondary pitches and confidence in actually throwing them, he will absolutely vault up the rankings. But he hasn’t done that yet. Until he does, I simply don’t have faith that he can be a starter in the big leagues.
Can we get some chatter about candidated for #11-15???
RHP Sulbaran
LHP Cingrani
OF LaMarre
1B Soto
LHP Joseph
2B Wright
3B Vidal
OF Waldrop
IN Buckley
IN Greene
Anyone else?
I stopped at 12 because no one else was really in the conversation for me at that point for the Top 10.
This list is so far out in left field I stopped reading it. Really?????? kind of disappointed in this one
That is why they pay me the big bucks! Wait, they only pay me in gum.
Honestly though, where is it out of whack?
Love ya Doug, but you are wearing the golden sombrero with this list. Don’t worry even The Babe struck out sometimes. you will be back on top tomorrow
11-15 For Me:
11.Joseph
12.Cingrani
13.Soto
14.Sulbaran
15.Lutz
I think what everyone is missing is that quality prospects are a combination of tools and their age/level. The list seems like a compilation of Reds’ prospects who have plus tools but no warts. You don’t want your top prospects to be relievers (joseph) or DH types (lutz).
I am a regular reader and I don’t see anything wrong with the list at all, it just shows the lack of toolsy players left after the trades this off-season but we should know that given the performance of the teams.
BA shows that Rahier signed for the exact slot amount $649,700
I think I would have included Cingrani and removed Rosa. I am a little uncomfortable with some of the new guys, but I really can’t argue about much here.
I think the list is fine. Thanks for doing it.
In fact, I would have put Cingrani 6th. For the same reason that you think he is out is the reason that I think he should be in. Being able to get guys out at this clip with mostly fastballs makes his floor very high. He is essentially at worst an above average major league reliever. In a system that is a bit lacking like ours, that kind of floor has to mean something. And it is not like his ceiling is all that low.
I think he should have been included but I can see why you didn’t.
Wow. We all like those high-round draftees, but how quickly the bloom comes off the rose. I don’t think you’ll want to look back on this list in 2-3 years, Doug. Still, I give you credit for being willing to make a list.
When your system has been depleted of high end talent, your draft picks end up pretty high on the list. I was surprised too at first glance, but other than Cingrani, who would we replace them with? Everyone has pretty significant question marks that he left out of his top 10.
The only two guys I think could really come back and bite me would be Sulbaran and Cingrani. I just don’t see the upside with anyone else in the system to make a true impact that makes me wonder how I left them out and those guys were #11 and 12 and they still have a chance to break into the top 10 with the rest of the year.
I wonder how much Cingrani’s pitch selection has to do with his own personal choice or lack of confidence in the offspeed stuff. I honestly don’t know how the pitches are called at those levels but I would guess he doesn’t just avoid offspeed pitches. I’ve seen mention of a good changeup this year (Goldstein) and a progressing slider as well. Even if these are contentious statements, I think his combination of high ceiling and results should have him in the Top 10.
I might have Hamilton at #1 now with the obp holding steady and the BB/K ratio vastly improved. I think it will be tough for him to maintain this level at AA but if he does he would definitely be my #1. Anyone with on-base skills and top-of-the-pile speed will be very valuable. Can you imagine if he had an obp of .365 to .380 in our leadoff spot especially if he could handle SS?