Game Breakdown: Kyle Lotzkar Doug Gray June 25, 2012 7 Comments Kyle Lotzkar Curveball While I have done these kinds of articles in the past, from here on out I plan to have one every Monday for a different player. Today I will be looking at Kyle Lotzkar. He has split his time between Bakersfield and Pensacola this year with these stats: Tm W L ERA IP H HR BB SO WHIP K/BB Bakersfield 3 0 2.39 26.1 22 2 10 27 1.22 2.7 Pensacola 4 2 3.47 46.2 40 3 26 56 1.41 2.2 Total 7 2 3.08 73 62 5 36 83 1.34 2.3 Scouting Background Pitches: Lotzkar throws a fastball, curveball and a change up. His fastball works in the 91-93 range and can hit 95. His curveball is considered an above-average to plus pitch (see below). His change up is a solid pitch. Mechanics: His mechanics are much cleaner than they have been in years past, though there is still some ever so slight hyper-abduction. You can see video below. Game Information The game profiles below is one of Lotzkar’s better games of his career. He allowed 2 runs in 7 innings without a walk and with 10 strikeouts. You can see the box score for the game here. Game Breakdown Here is the pitch by pitch breakdown. Please note that this game was watched online, so some of the fastballs (likely a few of them) could have just as easily have been change ups since the radar gun was not shown on screen and I could only note velocity when it was mentioned by the broadcasters. Pitch Type Target? Result Position Notes 1 FB Hit Called Strike Inside Middle 2 FB Missed Swinging Strike High outside 3 FB Missed Ball High outside 4 FB Missed Ball Low Inside 5 FB Hit Fly out Low Middle Lazy fly to left 6 FB Hit Called Strike Low Outside 7 FB Hit Pop up Low inside Pop up 3B 8 FB Hit Called Strike Low Middle 9 FB Hit Foul Inside Middle 10 FB Missed Ball High Inside 11 Camera Missed The Pitch strikeout. 12 FB Hit Called Strike Middle Low 13 FB Missed Ball Low Outside 14 CV Hit Called Strike Low Outside 15 FB Hit Foul Middle Inside 16 CV Hit Swinging Strike Low Outside strikeout. 17 FB Hit Ground Out Middle Inside ground out 2B 18 FB Hit Pop up Middle Inside pop up 2B 19 FB Hit Called Strike Middle Low 20 FB Hit Triple Middle Low Triple to RCF gap 21 FB Missed Called Strike Low Outside 22 FB Hit Foul Low Outside 23 CV Hit Foul Low Outside 24 FB Hit Fly out Low Inside Lazy fly to left 25 FB Missed Ball Middle Outside 26 FB Missed Ball Middle Outside 27 FB Hit Foul Low Inside 28 FB Hit Foul Middle Inside 29 CV Missed Swinging Strike Low Outside strikeout. 30 FB Missed Ball Low Inside 31 CH Hit Swinging Strike High Middle 32 FB Hit Foul Middle Low 33 CV Missed Ball High Inside 34 CH Hit Ground Out Low Inside Nice play at 1B by Guzman 35 CV Hit Ball Low Outside 36 FB Missed HBP Middle Way Inside Hit batter 37 FB Hit Home Run Low Middle HR just over the LF wall 38 FB Missed Ball Way outside and low 39 CH Hit Fly out Inside Low Fly out CF 40 FB Hit Foul Low Inside 41 CH Hit Single Low Inside Infield Single 2B 42 FB Hit Called Strike Low Outside 43 FB Hit Single Low Middle GB Single LF 44 FB Missed Ball High outside 45 FB Hit Swinging Strike Middle Low 46 CV Missed Ball Low Inside 47 FB Hit Foul Low Middle 48 CV Hit Swinging Strike Low Inside strikeout. 49 FB Missed Ball Way high inside 50 FB Hit Swinging Strike Outside Middle 51 CV Hit Foul Outside Low 52 CV Hit Fly out Outside Low Fly out CF 53 FB Hit Called Strike Outside Middle 54 CH Hit Swinging Strike Outside Low 55 CH Hit Swinging Strike Middle Low strikeout. 56 FB Missed Ball Way high outside 57 FB Hit Single Outside Middle Single LF 58 FB Hit Fly out Middle High Fly out LF N/A Pick off attempt Safe N/A Pick off attempt Out – Inning over 59 CV Hit Called Strike Middle low 60 CH Hit Foul Low Outside 61 FB Missed Ball High Middle 62 FB Hit Swinging Strike Low Outside strikeout. 63 FB Missed HBP Middle Inside Hit batter 64 CV Hit Called Strike Low Middle 65 FB Missed Foul High Inside 66 FB Missed Swinging Strike High Inside strikeout. 67 CV Hit Ball Middle Outside Passed Ball 68 FB Hit Foul Low Middle 69 CV Hit Called Strike Low Outside 70 CV Hit Swinging Strike Low Outside strikeout. 71 FB Missed Ball High Middle 72 CH Hit In play Low Middle Low liner SS Single 73 Camera Missed The Pitch 74 CV Missed Ball Low Outside 75 FB Hit Single Low inside Low liner LF – runner to 3B 76 CV Hit Foul Low Outside 77 FB Hit Foul Low Outside 78 CV Missed Swinging Strike Low Outside strikeout. 79 FB Hit Swinging Strike Middle Inside 80 FB Hit Foul Middle High 81 FB Hit Swinging Strike Middle Inside strikeout. 82 CV Missed Ball Low Outside 83 CV Missed Ball Low Outside 84 FB Hit Foul Low inside 85 FB Hit Fly out Low Middle Fly out CF Statistical Breakdown Again, I would just like to note that some fastballs, and likely there were a few, were probably change ups and that the numbers would be skewed some in regards to the fastball/change up data. Pitch Selection Strike Rate Ball Called K Swing K Foul In Play Fastball 66% 73% 13 8 7 13 12 Curveball 24% 65% 7 4 5 3 1 Change Up 10% 100% 0 0 3 1 4 Overall Impressions This was a game that showed some of the best that Lotzkar has to offer. He was able to throw all of his pitches for strikes and kept the hitters off balance for most of the day. Lotzkar did hit two guys with fastballs in the game, but for the most part he was able to control the strikezone. His curveball is clearly his go to pitch and if you watch this video, you will be able to see why. [hana-flv-player video=”http://redsminorleagues.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Lotzkar-Curve.flv” width=”468″ height=”320″ description=”” player=”4″ autoload=”true” autoplay=”false” loop=”false” autorewind=”true” /] In the game used for the article, Lotzkar didn’t struggle with his control, but he has had battles with it this season. In Pensacola he has a walk rate of 5 per 9 innings this season, so he has strides that he needs to make in that department. He is also already at a career high in innings pitched with 73 due to the numerous injuries he has suffered in the past. On the 40 man roster and having already used an option Lotzkar will only have two more season in the minors before running out of options. With his control and his needing to build up stamina, he may use all of that time before making it to the big leagues for the long haul. If he can stay healthy in that time though he could be a strong starter for the Reds in the future. 7 Responses Mel June 25, 2012 I love this young man. He really has the ability to become a very very good big league guy. Kevin June 25, 2012 Great stuff. Have you or someone else ever looked at target hit percentage? Seems like a good way to determine control above and beyond just K/BB. But maybe too hard to implement given all the charting needed. Alan Horn June 25, 2012 His mechanics are much better than a few years ago. I think the key for him is if he can stay healthy. Mauired June 25, 2012 Not related to Lotzkar, but I’ve been wondering who gets released today when the Reds bring back Stubbs. The obvious choice is Willie but Cairo is starting to become redundant and is just as bad. foxred June 25, 2012 Cairo becomes important before season is done. mbushskbum June 25, 2012 Guillon starting for Billings tonight. Alan Horn June 25, 2012 Just when I had almost given up on Latos, he goes out and pitches a heck of a game with 13 strikeouts. If he keeps on pitching anywhere close to that, the trade will look a lot better.