Minor League Game Review – 7/4/12 Doug Gray July 5, 2012 77 Comments 7/4 Game Review Louisville lost 6-1. Box Score Kristopher Negron went 2-4 with a triple and a run. Carlos Fisher allowed a run in 2 innings with a strikeout. Travis Webb threw a perfect inning with a walk and 3 strikeouts. Game notes Kristopher Negron had the only two hits for the Bats. They have now lost 8 in a row after their 9 game winning streak. Pensacola won 7-3. Box Score Ryan LaMarre went 2-3 with 2 walks, a steal (19) and 2 runs. Brodie Greene went 1-2 with 2 walks, a HR (3), 4 RBI and 2 runs. Bryson Smith went 2-3 with a walk and RBI. David Vidal went 2-4 with a double and a run. Andrew Means went 1-3 with a triple, RBI, walk and a run. Daniel Corcino allowed 2 runs in 6 innings with 2 walks and 5 strikeouts. Justin Freeman threw 1.2 shutout innings for the save. Game notes Brodie Greene had a big game with 4 RBI and reaching base 3 times. Bryson Smith is off to a quick start in Pensacola with a .385/.429/.538 line through his first 7 games. Daniel Corcino gave up two solo home runs. He now has a 3.17 ERA on the season. Bakersfield lost 14-3. Box Score Billy Hamilton went 1-4 with a walk, RBI, run and a steal (101). Theo Bowe went 2-5 with a HR (3) and 2 RBI. Travis Mattair went 2-4. Juan Duran went 2-3 with a walk. Dominic D’Anna went 1-4 with a double and a run. Steve Selsky went 3-4 with a double. Game notes Theo Bowe now has as many home runs in 191 plate appearances in the California League as he had in 800 plate appearances before he arrived in the league. He is now hitting .369/.455/.481 for Bakersfield. Dayton won 17-4. Box Score Joe Terry went 4-5 with a double, 2 RBI and 2 runs. Juan Perez went 2-5 with an RBI and 2 runs. Yorman Rodriguez went 3-6 with a double, run and 3 RBI. Sean Buckley went 2-5 with a double, RBI and 2 runs. Ryan Wright went 2-5 with a walk, RBI and 2 runs. Kyle Waldrop went 4-6 with a double, 2 RBI and 3 runs. Yovan Gonzalez went 3-6 with a double, 3 RBI and 2 runs. Juan Silva went 1-3 with a double, 2 runs and 2 walks. Jefry Sierra went 3-5 with a double, 4 RBI and a run. Carlos Gonzalez allowed a run in 4 innings with 4 walks and 4 strikeouts. Ryan Kemp threw 2 shutout innings with 2 strikeouts. Game notes The Dragons scored 8 runs in the first inning and followed that up with 4 more in the second inning. The team had 24 hits in the game, a new franchise record. The next three nights the games will be available to watch online, for free. You can see the link below in the game preview. Billings lost 8-7. Box Score Daniel Pigott went 1-4 with an RBI and a run. Robert Maddox went 3-4 with 3 HR (5) and 5 RBI. Matt Lentz went 1-2. Robert Stephenon threw 3 shutout innings with 4 walks and 3 strikeouts. Game notes Two Mustangs errors led to four unearned runs against Billings pitchers. You have to wonder how the umpiring was in the game, the two teams combined to walk 17 batters and only record 12 strikeouts. Robert Maddox had himself a game. He is now 2nd in the league in home runs and 4th in OPS. AZL Reds were postponed. Game preview Team 1st half 2nd half Time Probable Box Score Listen Live Watch Live Louisville 31-57 N/A 7:05pm TBA Here Here Here Pensacola 34-35 9-5 8:00pm Sulbaran Here Here Here Bakersfield 41-29 6-8 10:45pm TBA Here Here N/A Dayton 30-40 4-9 7:00pm Mugarian Here Here Here Billings 10-7 N/A 9:05pm Guillon Here Here N/A AZL Reds 3-8 N/A 10:00pm TBA Here N/A N/A 77 Responses BaBull July 5, 2012 Mugarian moved up to Dayton? Doug Gray July 5, 2012 Yes. The Duke July 5, 2012 Workman like start from Corcino. Also with those umps in the Billings game, Stephenson has 2 BB in his first 14 IP, yet he had 4 in 3 IP here? Sounds like there was no edge of the strikezone. Stephenson did mitigate it by only allowing the in one hit. His pitch count must have been up there to only go 3 IP. Interested to see how Mugarian does in A ball tonight. Everything went right for the Dragons. Everyone who played multiple innings had multiple hits. MK July 5, 2012 As far as Stephenson’s walks, it happens he isn’t a machine it doesn’t have to be about the umpires. I knew it was going to be a good night in Dayton when Arias lead-off and reached on a error and then had to come out of the game as he pulled something. Meant the black hole that has become the third base position when he is out there might be a little more full. Hopefully Mejias-Brean will be in Dayton shortly. Like to see Maddox back in Dayton as well. Doug Gray July 5, 2012 Arias has a .750 OPS in the last month and a week. Not exactly a black hole. MK July 5, 2012 I’m talking defense. His glove or more aptly arm creates the black hole. What Junior giveth he taketh away. The only player in the system with more errors is Hamilton who has one(24) more in 20+ more defensive games at a tougher position. Although Gabriel Rosa is on a pace to surpass Junior with 6 in 11 games. Billy Bob July 5, 2012 Arias… can’t catch a cold! MK July 5, 2012 Theo Bowe is hitting great. But, I thought one of his weaknesses as Dayton was his Willie Mays-Hayes approach from Major League II. He wanted to be a power hitter and was always taking those huge cuts. Maybe he hasn’t changed his thinking much and the warning track balls from Dayton are flying out of the smaller confines in Bakersfield. Doug Gray July 5, 2012 Billy Hamilton – #27 on BA’s Midseason Top 50 http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2012/07/midseason-top-50-prospects-list-2/ Kevin July 5, 2012 As excited as everyone is about Billy Hamilton, this should give you pause: the Cardinals have 3 prospects rated higher than Hamilton on this list. Man, I hate the Cardinals. BaBull July 5, 2012 Yup, on the hating. I never thought I would dislike any team more than the Yankees. Doug Gray July 5, 2012 They do. And I don’t really care much about it. The Reds have a bunch of young guys on their MLB team and probably 3-5 other Top 100 guys depending on where you look at the end of the year. The Reds system isn’t overly top heavy, but it doesn’t really need to be. We have pitchers at the top (that AA rotation is loaded with raw talent) and hitters mixed in throughout. wanderinredsfan July 5, 2012 I like Hamilton, I do, but he is not a top-50 prospect. The speed is other-worldly, but his defense is average and his hit-tool is sub-par. I’d be very surprised if Hamilton sticks at SS, especially with the much better defensive players ahead of him (Cozart and Gregorius) in the system. I’m not really sure he could be above-average at any position, excepting maybe CF, but his relatively weak arm would be a sacrifice. I’ve been watching Hamilton a lot this summer play in Bakersfield, after watching him early in spring training, and I’m not really sure I see any improvements or adjustments in his approach or swing since spring training. There is so little power in his swing, and he basically swings flat-footed, using only his arms. His swing is such a long, long way away, that I think promoting him now would be a huge injustice to his development. IMO, Hamilton needs to be working on his swing now before trying to adjust at better competition, but I think he’s content with his approach, so long as he can get on base. Basically, he’s Juan Pierre-lite, which is about as ‘lite’ a person can be in baseball. Teams should just bring in the infield and outfield to women’s softball depth to nullify his slap-hitting and speed. Do that, and I bet his OBP drops .150. I predict that the better defense and pitching in AA will be a huge obstacle to Billy’s ability to effect the game in any meaningful way. Jon Ryker July 5, 2012 I think Vince Coleman is a more apt comparison and absolutely nobody cared about his lack of power…. wanderinredsfan July 5, 2012 They should have. Coleman hardly ever had an OPS higher than .700. He never had a SLG over .400! Never! Believe it or not, Stubbs has a better career OPS than Coleman. Considering how disappointing Stubbs has been, that should give anyone pause before hoping Billy Hamilton turns into Vince Coleman. coltholt July 5, 2012 You mean that Stubbs and Coleman are even on stolen bases? Not exactly an apples to apples comp wanderinredsfan July 5, 2012 Not the argument I’m making. OPS is the better predictor of a player’s worth to a team’s win total than stolen bases. Stolen bases are nice, but are not as valuable to a player’s worth as some want to believe. If you ask me to choose between 100 more stolen bases or an extra .100 pts in OPS; I’ll take the .100 extra points in OPS every time. chiredsfan July 5, 2012 BH stole a base last night down 8-1, he has become fixated on steals to the detriment of everything else, I agree with Wanderin. Folks are getting way excited by one dimension that has mediocre value. The Duke July 5, 2012 What inning was it? Should he stop trying to manufacture a run because it isn’t close? coltholt July 6, 2012 Along the same lines, are you going to count a guy off because a double or homer was hit during a blowout game? This is a guy who can single handedly create runs. For example, back in April he got an infield single, stole second and third, and tagged up (on a pop out to the second baseman) for the winning run during the ninth inning of a 1-0 win. This guy has speed that can be a difference maker. His speed causes pitchers to make mistakes that could lead to a big inning. Wanderin, that tradeoff is obsurd. Generally, stolen bases aren’t a difference making category. If Hamilton continues to steal bases at the rate that he has, 100 stolen bases could certainly be worth significantly more than .100 points on the OPS which could 50 points in the batting average which increases both the OBP and slugging. Over the course of 600 ABs, that is 30 singles. So, you are taking 30 singles over a 79 net stolen bases (100 steals on 121 attempts). Further, the argument that his hit tool is insufficient just doesn’t fly because you have to get on base to steal. The ability to swipe 100 bases implies that the guy has been able to get on base. BaBull July 6, 2012 Exactly, the object of the game is to score more than your opponent. Legging out a slowly hit ball, stealing 2nd and 3rd, then scoring on a popup counts the same in the box score as a solo bomb in the upperdeck. I loved Sparky but, I think that quote is ridiculous. It tells me that if we aren’t hitting well we can’t and don’t deserve to win. Not my type of baseball. Rick D in Chicago July 5, 2012 How exactly is it his fault that the Reds were down 8-1? His job is A) get on base, B) get into position to score. As far as I can see it he did exactly as he is supposed to. I’ve seen minor league games go from 8-1 to 8-11 in one half inning. BaBull July 5, 2012 What is ‘the detriment of everything else’? What’s the downside? chiredsfan July 5, 2012 it was late innings, him getting to 2nd base served almost no purpose, yet he risked an out, he gets caught 20% of the time. In the majors that would have been considered either stupid or selfish. “manufacturing runs” is for close ballgames. foxred July 5, 2012 It is Hamilton’s OBP that is what is exciting. OPS means very little for a leadoff hitter. If he’s getting on and getting to second without an out being made, I will take that over OPS as I build a team. 3-6 can be all about OPS BaBull July 5, 2012 There are some on here that might agree with you. If they were ahead 8-1, I would. The object of the game is to win – that is accomplished by scoring more runs than your opponent. I would have a problem with it if he had just packed it in. MK July 5, 2012 Stealing down 8-1 is bad baseball. I was at a clinic where Sparky Anderson spoke and his comment on baserunning was that if you are down five and a runner has to slide to take an extra base then we should “take out a gun and shoot him because you have an idiot not a baseball player.” I’ve remembered that quote for 20 years. coltholt July 6, 2012 MK, I bet that Sparky Anderson wasn’t looking at Billy Hamilton when he said that. Clinics will tell you to just bring in the run when you have a runner on third and one out, but are you going to tell Barry Bonds to push one the opposite way with the shift on him in that situation? As I said above, BH causes pitchers to make mistakes. It is to the hitters advantage that the pitcher is thinking about him going, regardless of the score. Ryan July 5, 2012 Of course the Dayton game is online for free tonight and I am busy moving. I work in software development and we have a software we use called camtasia that allows you to record your screen. Would be nice if all these games could be recorded and rendered somewhere to watch whenever. Doug Gray July 5, 2012 I use camtasia as well. I can’t imagine what my computer would do if I attempted to record for 3 straight hours with that program. I run into problems if I go over 30 minutes with how long it takes me to get it all going. But, if you subscribe to Milb.tv, you can go back and watch the games any time you want. I am assuming you don’t subscribe though. Ryan July 5, 2012 Yea I could do it from my office machine but not the one at home. I am getting ready to subscribing now and I didn’t you could do that. I was already looking into it that way I could catch games at work when I was bored. By the way you do a really good job with this site. I am not just talking about the Reds part of it. I am a programmer and not many people realize how much work goes into maintaining these sort of things. MK July 5, 2012 For $10 a month it is hard to beat. Billy Bob July 5, 2012 Dayton games on Milb.tv is a joke. Only bad dugout camera angles of hitters and no centerfield shots. Doug Gray July 5, 2012 While that is true, Thursday-Saturday home games are archived WHIO 7.2 games with a proper/normal baseball shot. Dayton didn’t want to have anything but the Thursday-Saturday home games be on Milb.tv, but Milb forced them to, so they just use their scoreboard cameras for the rest of the games. What I don’t quite get though is if you are going to use those angles, why not zoom out some so you can actually see the entire batter instead of just his waist up. The Duke July 5, 2012 When can we expect a DSL update? Just purusing the stats and roster nothing jumps out at me. Soid Marquez is doing ok as a 17 year old. Where is Jonathan Perez the younger? Doug Gray July 5, 2012 Hopefully next week. As of right now, I only have one other article planned and I am working on it after I eat lunch. Not a clue where the young Jonathan Perez is and at this point, I have to admit, it is confusing that we haven’t seen him. MDRon July 5, 2012 Don’t look now, but… Yorman. His K rate is falling and he’s hitting the ball with authority. honest July 5, 2012 reds have to get rid od some dead weight Doug Gray July 5, 2012 They certainly need to find a way to make improvements, particularly on offense. The bench is atrocious on nights when Todd Frazier is starting. Greg July 5, 2012 Hal McCoy said that Rolan needs to the honorable thing and retire. I have to say that I agree with him as much as like Rolan. They still need a Lead off hitter, right handed clean up hitter, and at least 1 power lefty off the bench. Just don’t see much of that happening. Alan Horn July 5, 2012 Agree with everything. It is obvious that Stubbs isn’t going to get it done with the bat. Heisey is ok, but is probably a 4th outfielder as some on here have been saying. Mesoraco has a lot of improving to do with the bat. In summary, this team needs more offense. If we could get someone like Quentin for LF and a left handed hitter for the bench, it would go a long way in meeting our offensive needs. BaBull July 5, 2012 Hal is right about Rolen. I addressed it here on a thread a while ago, too. Bow out gracefully to preserve his legacy. Last summer I saw him play down here in Tampa and he couldn’t hit the fastball fair to save his life – he was cheating big time and looked foolish on any breaking ball. Granted it was against David Price. MK July 5, 2012 Mike Schmidt quit mid-season. Scott should do the same. Jocketty should do the right thing and call him in and say we will give you the opportunity to go out on your own terms(and we will pay-off your contract) or we will release you. Doug Gray July 5, 2012 They don’t need any handed clean up hitter. They simply need to either move Bruce to the clean up spot and Phillips to lead off or they need to trade for someone (RHH or LHH) to bat 4th and move Phillips to the leadoff spot. For as much crap as Jay Bruce gets, if we assume that there are 16 #3 hitters in the NL and 16 #4 hitters in the NL (one per team), then Bruce and his OPS that ranks him 19th in the NL should be batting there and the odds that you can acquire someone better for the spot are highly unlikely. Greg July 5, 2012 Agreed, but we do not live in the real world. We get to live in Dusty’s world. A world where things are not as they should be but only the way dusty sees them. As long as Dusty is the manager the reds need a right handed clean up hitter. I still think if Mesoraco could get the playing time he could be the clean up hitter and a good one. foxred July 5, 2012 Would much rather fix the lead off spot, move Cozart to 2, leave Phillips at cleanup and either move Stubbs to #8 or bench. There are more available options for lesser give back I believe. BaBull July 5, 2012 Phillips may be more productive at leadoff than cleanup. As much as I love him, he seems way better suited to leadoff. Stubbs would be on my bench (or some one else’s). Kill two birds with one stone, though, if you get Victorino or DeJesus. Ryan July 6, 2012 Please Dusty just put philips in the 1 hole and move stubbs out of the top 7 spots in the batting order. At this point im done with Dusty. Never hated him nor was a big fan. But i cant stand his logic on much of anything, especially how he manages the lineup. Maybe he hasnt figured out that Stubbs is not that good of hitter(or Rolen). He has legitimate problems making contact and thus doesnt get on base much(you guys know this pretty well by now).Time is now to find out if Todd Frazier is foreal and bat him 5th behind Bruce. Lefty lefty may not be ideal but it beats having both Stubbs and Cozart at the top of the batting order EVERY BLOOMING DAY. Doug Gray July 6, 2012 Dustys problem is that he doesn’t see guys for what they are. He sees them for what he thinks they should be. Shortstops and center fielders bat 1 and 2. Catchers bat 8th. Because that is what they are supposed to do. You split the lefties up because you are supposed to (most teams can because they actually have one right hander on their team who can hit 20 home runs, unlike this team – well, maybe Frazier). BaBull July 5, 2012 If the Reds are going to stand pat somewhere it has to be on the picthing side. The bullpen has been very good and the rotation seems to be coming around (Latos). Frazier should never be on the bench. If he is, then the regular lineup suffers (Cairo/Rolen – oh my!). A cleanup hitter for LF and/or a quality OBP guy for leadoff. Bench? What about Scott Hairston (Mets)? Another option would be to go after a starting 3B (Headley – SD?) then put Frazier in LF. Mes needs to play at least 3 of 5. foxred July 5, 2012 Headley solves everything. 3B, LF (Frazier) cleanup hitter, OBP guy and leadoff (Phillips) and you keep him away from the Pirates. I just think he’ll cost too much. MK July 5, 2012 What are Arizona’s needs? They have a Miami U outfielder, Adam Eaton, at Reno hitting about .390 as a lead-off hitter, great arm, who is a AAA All Star. He seems to be blocked at this point. Hits left-handed. Seems on paper like everything the Reds need. Think thy would take someone like Lotzkar? Greg July 5, 2012 no they have so much pitching coming up and a lot of young pitching on the current staff. I would think that 3rd base would be about their biggest need or maybe SS (depending on Drew’s health). They do however have a 3rd baseman that is coming up with the name of Matt Davidson who looks like at least a B prospect. Relief Pitching is also another need I think they have and the reds have plenty of that coming through the system. MK July 5, 2012 Spencer Dickinson promoted to Dayton. BaBull July 5, 2012 I am not sure who posted it here but, Dickinson was said to have a noodle arm. With the TV broadcasts, I hope to get a chance to see his Adam Dunn impersonation. Doug Gray July 5, 2012 Adam Dunn didn’t have a noodle arm. Johnny Damon and Juan Pierre have noodle arms. BaBull July 5, 2012 I still see that little lolipop flip he used to show off in my nightmares. I remember thinking that for an ex-QB it was sort of shocking. DaveCT July 5, 2012 From Baseball America, breakout players, on Cingrani: Tony Cingrani, rhp, Reds: At Rice, Cingrani was a complete bust as a starter. He posted an 8.58 ERA, which led to a move to the bullpen. Cincinnati gave him another chance to start, and he’s responded by posting a 1.57 ERA in 28 starts as a pro. His slider has improved to the point where he has two average secondary offerings on most nights. The fastball is almost always plus. DJ Day July 5, 2012 Definately need guys to get on base in front of Votto. Ryan July 5, 2012 In the chat for top 50 prospects it was also mentioned that Corcino and Cingrani were both close to making the top 50. The Duke July 5, 2012 I’m driving the Tony Cingrani bandwagon, and I don’t take him over Stephenson. BaBull July 5, 2012 Agreed. Stephenson has a higher ceiling I do believe and after he gets some games under his belt he is likely to post some numbers that boost him up the list quickly. DaveCT July 5, 2012 No argument there. Just like the statement that Cingrani’s secondary pitches have been (or become) more than they were thought of. BaBull July 5, 2012 With mostly a fastball he is dominating. As his pitches develop, he could move up to the Reds pronto. It could allow the team to trade starting pitching for the first time in awhile (other than Volquez) to clear a spot for him. The Duke July 5, 2012 There might not be a better time to move Homer Bailey than after this season. MK July 5, 2012 Keep him. The Duke July 5, 2012 Cueto, Latos, Leake, Bailey. Can’t afford to be paying them all FA and late arb year money Doug Gray July 5, 2012 One of those guys isn’t like the others. Figure out what to do with that guy. RobL July 6, 2012 Getting rid of Cueto because he is Hispanic seems like a bad idea. RobL July 6, 2012 But, if you’re implying Leake because he doesn’t throw 95, I would like to point out that his xFIP was better than Bailey last year and right now it is almost a full run better this year. Since ’10, Bailey’s K rate was gone from 8.2 to 7.2 to 6.2 this season. Leake is at 6.1 this year. Is the reading on the radar gun the end all-be-all? BaBull July 6, 2012 Arroyo is different than the rest in a couple of ways – #1: he is over 30, #2: he makes the most money and #3: he has pitched well enough this year to have value. RobL July 6, 2012 My computer must be broken, because I don’t see Arroyo listed. Terry M July 5, 2012 Henry R has 3 hits for Louisville already. One was an HR… honest July 6, 2012 all in favor of getting rid of dusty rais your right hand Doug Gray July 6, 2012 I actually, somehow, grew a third and fourth hand to raise. BaBull July 6, 2012 I’ll chip in for a box of pure gold toothpicks as a lovely parting gift. Ryan from Middletown July 7, 2012 About dislocated my shoulder raising my hand so fast.