Minor League Game Review – 8/4/12 Doug Gray August 5, 2012 59 Comments 8/4 Game Review Louisville won 4-3. Box Score Denis Phipps went 1-4 with a 2 run HR (9). Didi Gregorius went 1-4 with a double. Mike Costanzo went 2-4 with a solo HR (8). Willie Harris went 1-3. Brian Peacock went 1-2 with a double, RBI and a run. Sean Gallagher allowed 3 runs in 6 innings with 2 walks and 3 strikeouts. Nick Christiani threw 2 perfect innings with 2 strikeouts. JJ Hoover threw a perfect 9th with a strikeout. Game notes Former Bat Scott Carroll started against his old team. Denis Phipps continued his nice second half, now hitting .319/.373/.511 in 22 games since the break. JJ Hoover lowered his ERA to 1.50 on the year. Pensacola lost 6-5 in 11 innings. Box Score Billy Hamilton went 1-5 with a walk and a run. Josh Fellhauer went 2-5 with 2 doubles, a walk and a run. David Vidal went 1-4 with a walk. Brodie Greene went 3-4 with a walk and a run. Tucker Barnhart went 2-4 with a walk, RBI and a run. Tony Cingrani went 1-2 at the plate. He threw 5 shutout innings with 4 walks and 4 strikeouts on the mound. Wilkin De La Rosa threw 1.1 hitless innings with a walk and 2 strikeouts. Brian Pearl threw a shutout inning with a walk. Game notes The Blue Wahoos scored 4 runs in the top of the 11th inning but couldn’t hold on as they allowed 5 in the bottom of the inning. Josh Fellhauer had 2 hits to push his average over .300 on the year. Bakersfield won 5-3. Box Score Theo Bowe went 1-3 with a walk. Devin Lohman went 3-5 with a double, RBI and 2 runs. Travis Mattair went 3-4 with a double, 2 RBI and a run. Dominic D’Anna went 1-3 with a walk and a run. Steve Selsky went 3-4 with an RBI. Danny Vicioso went 1-4 with a run. Daniel Wolford threw 1.2 shutout innings with 2 walks. Justice French threw 2.2 shutout innings with 2 walks. Game notes The Blaze pitching staff walked 8 and struck out just 3, but somehow only allowed 3 runs. Steve Selsky pushed his average with the Blaze up to .347. Dayton won 6-5. Box Score Juan Perez went 2-4 with 2 triples, 2 runs and 3 RBI. Jefry Sierra went 1-3 with a walk and 2 RBI. Juan Silva went 1-3 with a walk and solo HR (4). Junior Arias went 1-3 with a walk and a run. Yovan Gonzalez went 1-3 with a walk and 2 runs. Lucas O’Rear threw 1.1 shutout innings with a strikeouts. Ryan Kemp threw a perfect inning of relief. Carlos Contreras threw a perfect inning for the save. Game notes Juan Perez with a nice game as he had two triples. The Dragons trailed 5-0 after 7 innings, but they scored 2 in the 8th and 4 in the 9th to bring home the win. Billings won 9-8. Box Score Beau Amaral went 2-5 with an RBI and a run. Brandon Dailey went 4-5 with a double, triple, 2 RBI and a run. Jesse Winker went 1-4 with a triple, walk, RBI and a run. Matt Lentz went 2-4 with a double and 2 runs. Robert Ramirez went 2-5 with a double and a run. Taylor Wrenn went 4-5 with a double, RBI and 2 runs. Nick Routt threw 1.1 shutout innings with 2 strikeouts. Game notes Seth Mejias-Brean extended his hitting streak to 20 games with a single in 5 trips to the plate. Taylor Wrenn drove in the winning run in the bottom of the 9th inning. The Mustangs are 6-1 to start the second half of the season. AZL Reds won 15-2. Box Score Brent Peterson went 4-6 with an RBI and 3 runs. Humberto Valor went 4-6 with 2 doubles, 4 RBI and 2 runs. Adam Matthews went 2-5 with a double, run, a steal of home and 2 RBI. Jonathan Reynoso went 2-4 with 2 runs, 2 steals (17) and a walk. Jose Valdelamar went 1-4 with a walk, RBI and 2 runs. Josh Kennelly went 2-4 with a walk and 2 runs. Pedro Diaz allowed a run in 3.2 innings with 3 walks and a strikeout. Mike Saunders went 3.1 shutout innings with 2 walks and 3 strikeouts. Austin Muehring threw a shutout inning. Game preview Team 1st half 2nd half Time Probable Box Score Listen Live Watch Live Louisville 44-71 N/A 6:05pm Reineke Here Here Here Pensacola 34-35 22-20 6:03pm Lotzkar Here Here N/A Bakersfield 41-29 19-23 9:05pm Smith Here Here N/A Dayton 30-40 17-23 2:05pm Allen Here Here Here Billings 21-17 6-1 4:05pm Moscot Here Here N/A AZL Reds 12-23 N/A 10:00pm TBA Here N/A N/A 59 Responses Wally August 5, 2012 Holy crap Pensacola jim t August 5, 2012 Doug, I’m probably guilty of this and if it is not what you like on the the thread I’ll stop posting comments dealing with the ML team. Another poster indicated that this was a minor league site and to much about the ML team was being posted on the blog. If you feel this way I will certainly be more mindful of your direction. BaBull August 5, 2012 I agree. I think we sometimes get carried away with some debate points concerning the Reds’. I will try to focus more on the minors in the future. RobL August 5, 2012 Debates regarding the Reds are not a problem. It is the same things over and over that are tiring. And lately, it seems like there a posts who’s sole purpose is to provoke “discussion”. Let’s face it, it’s not so much discussion as people lining up and choosing sides over and over again. An positive example is the Broxton trade. People got on and aired out their feelings. Now it has been largely dropped. At the end of the season, it might be nice to come back and look at the results for the Reds. A negative example is the playing time of Mes. We all have high hopes for him, but the hand wringing of his playing time is old. He has a set rotation, so why people still show shock when he is on the bench after a good game is tiring. MDRon August 5, 2012 What jim t said Doug Gray August 5, 2012 The only reason any of us are even here is because we are all Reds fans. And to be honest, I am sure everyone comes back a little more often to talk Reds, which means I get paid an extra few cents from the ads that load because of it. Talk about anything, as long as we keep it civil and aren’t insulting each other. DaveCT August 5, 2012 I was the poster commenting on minor vs major league discussions, and I have no issue talking ML Reds, as I seem to do it quite frequently during my day, even here in Connecticut. I don’t really engage in the ML talk that tends to be repetitive, and at times find it a challenge to dig out some sub conversations on the minors, that’s all. I somehow became a Reds fan at about age 8 (1968) even growing up in CT. Only thing I can think of is that I must have caught wind of Bench. Either way, after the BRM years, i became hopelessly interested in the Reds minors, waiting for the arrival every other week of baseball America for stats that were weeks old Bottom line, we have an excellent site here and i support whatever Doug wants. jim t August 5, 2012 Thanks Doug!!! BaBull August 5, 2012 We can’t insult each other?! Darn! lol Doug – We also can’t cuss. I mean, DARN!…lol jim t August 5, 2012 Doug, Fellhauer is quietly having a nice year. Is he someone that is opening a few eyes? If only Phips could pertend April was july. Last two years second half has been good. Doug Gray August 5, 2012 Fellhauer is being used almost in a strict platoon. He has 29 at bats this season against left handers and he has been there all year. Billy Hamilton by example has 79 total at bats and 23 against lefties. With that said, Fellhauer could be an extra outfielder. He has a nice, short swing and some plate discipline while also being able to cover all three spots (while he isn’t an ideal center fielder, he can play there if you really need it). DaveCT August 5, 2012 If they allow baseball rats in the OF, Fellhauer would be one, and I agree he may have a shot as a 4th OF type. Problem most ‘rats’ are gritty infielders. Speaking of this type, one guy I would like back is Justin Turner. Seems we kept Valaika over Turner, back in the day as my son would say, which was somewhat logical regarding upside, but still. BaBull August 5, 2012 So…is Billy gonna break the record? Doug Gray August 5, 2012 As long as he can stay healthy, I say yes. Slim August 5, 2012 With approx. 27 games left and needing 23 or so I think he may do it. It’ll be close. Go Billy. I’d love to see the Reds plaster a record to their website. MK August 5, 2012 I thought some radio comments, concerning the Reds development folks doing a disservice to the development of Junior Arias by continuing to leave him in Dayton where he is failing in all aspects of the game, were pretty much right-on (AB 290; BA .200; OB .256; SLG .276; Errors 28). I also think of the development of the pitchers who must feel like they need to strike everyone out when the left side (ss-3b) of the infield has committed 68 errors between Arias, Perez, Terry and Dailey. Is it time to swap Arias and Mejias-Brean for both players development? DaveCT August 5, 2012 It may be. Beginning of year it was Arias at A and Rosa at R levels, which made complete sense. Now I am not so sure, with Mejias Brean stepping aggressively into the bigger picture( Duke we need a nickname — that is too freakin’ hard to type!) On the other hand, part of me says leave well enough alone, let M-B play the season out at billings with his team, then come up for a look at Lo-A. Arias may just have to eat it this year and repeat Lo-A. Doug Gray August 5, 2012 At this point, you probably don’t gain anything out of having Arias demoted. He would have 4 weeks in Billings. The Mustangs are on a roll in the second half and are hoping to make the playoffs. That is out of the question for the Dragons (short of going all Reds and going 22-3 or something similar). We have seen the Reds keep teams together in the past to try and get the guys to the playoffs. Might be what we are seeing in Billings. RobL August 5, 2012 While promoting SMB is probably in his best interest, I don’t know if demoting Arias is in his best interest. I really don’t know if it would have a positive or negative effect. The point you bring up about the pitchers is an interesting thought. If pitching to contact is a detriment, then they maybe trying to nibble to much. Of course, Doug would say pitching to contact is always a detriment and they should being trying to K everyone:) But your point is well taken, if they have no confidence in their D, then it becomes very hard to be effective. MK August 5, 2012 On the pitching point some have wondered how Tanner Robles can be more successful in hitting friendly Bakersfield. If you talk to Tanner he does try to pitch to contact. Maybe he just has better defense. As far as sending Arias down, if he can go back and dominate he might at least finish with success instead of an entire season of failure. If not Billings them Arizona. Doug, do they have a lot of money (bonus)wrapped up in him? Doug Gray August 5, 2012 Arias got a decent chunk of money to sign, $330,000. So there is some money tied up in him. I don’t think that has much to do with their current decision though. MK August 5, 2012 Just wondered. The Duke August 5, 2012 No need to rock the boat with 4 weeks left. Let Mejias-Brean finish out the year in Billings and then get the Byrson Smith treatment and start 2013 in A+ and give Arias one more shot at Low A. Clammy August 5, 2012 Hey Doug, what’s your thoughts on Theo Bowe. Looks like he’s having a breakout year. Where is he in your prospect rankings and your overall thoughts about his season. Seems his number of steals gets lost with all the talk about Hamilton. RobL August 5, 2012 What’s not listed is the number of caught stealings he has. He’s been thrown out a third of the time. His height is probably holding him back. DaveCT August 5, 2012 I am beginning to think we need a definition of breakout — as it usually stands, about a half season of very solid improvement, especially in 2nd half (when awards are won :)) Then I see Theo as be a candidate. BUT, in his case, it is only a half season, in a hitters league, plus I believe Doug has come up with info showing Bowe is the great luck candidate of the year as well ( as was Phipps last year). So perhaps ‘breakout’ should at the least be as in a Hamilton breakout, notable (and in Doug’s case verifiable) improvement carried over to next half season, if not one full season in entirety. Perhaps I am over-thinking this … Going old school, how about a solid half season at AA for Theo before we become too excited? Doug Gray August 5, 2012 I have always liked Bowe a little bit. He isn’t a big prospect, but he has some abilities. He is just as fast as Hamilton is, regardless of what some people may try to tell you. For his career he has a strong walk rate and has been ok at making contact. If he can cut down on his strikeouts some, he might have a future as a back up/pinch running specialist. This season, his BABIP is .417, which is far to high to sustain moving forward. So he should see his number regress some, but there is a little bit of talent there to like and if he can continue to develop it, he could have a future. Cbus August 5, 2012 Can’t blazing speed explain is high BABIP and make it somewhat sustainable? Maybe he’s a greatly improved bunter or he’s learned to hit the ball on the ground more than past years and if he’s learned those skills they should not go away. Doug Gray August 5, 2012 Not that high, no. Bowe has always been this fast. His BABIP’s since turning pro have been .276, .363, .355 and .315. His groundball rates are pretty similar with the lone exception being in Dayton this season. But to be fair, no one is expecting Bowe to be a .340 hitter either. His BABIP should drop though, to the .330-.350 range next season, where it has generally been. When that happens, he will go back to the hitter that his career says he is unless he can make more contact/develop a little bit of HR power. Norwood Nate August 5, 2012 I could be mistaken, but it looks like almost all the guys on the roster are under contract for next year with the exception of Rolen, Cairo, Paul and Broxton. Ludwick has a mutual option, that I would guess the Reds will pick up from their end, and a few guys going through arbitration (Valdez, Bray, etc). That being said, we know from the position players we will likely need to replace Cairo and Rolen. Who from the organization have a good chance of filling some of the open roster spots next year? I would guess that Rodriguez would be the best bet to replace Cairo. But if Valdez and Cozart are both on the big squad, it would seem unwise to have Didi sit instead of getting regular time. At the same time there is not any other position players in the upper minors on the verge of being ready, at least not based off of the year so far. Would someone like Felix Perez have a chance, or would the club go after veterens on the market? Cbus August 5, 2012 If ludwick becomes too expensive I’d love them to pick up Nick Swisher or maybe Delmon Young. I Don’t see anyone in the minors that could take over LF next year. Maybe Lutz in 2014 though with Billy replacing Stubbs in CF the same year? MK August 5, 2012 If Ludwick is too expensive I would think Swisher and Young would be more expensive. BaBull August 5, 2012 I saw a poll taken of major leaguers recently. It appears that Swisher is not very well liked amongst his peers. If what I read was correctly represented, then I want NOTHING to do with him. I agree with MK. He will likely be more expensive than Ludwick in any event. Cbus August 5, 2012 Swisher was a buckeye, maybe he’d come back to Ohio at a discount. I’ve always thought of him kind of like BP, little bit of hot dog but if he’s on your team you love him, everyone else doesn’t. He’s also one of the only MLB guys that has more twitter followers than BP. BaBull August 5, 2012 I think with Swisher, everyone hates him – including his lockerroom mates in NYC. wanderinredsfan August 5, 2012 Why is everyone so sure that Hamilton can play a decent CF? The biggest concern of Billy’s infield defense is his arm, which doesn’t bode well for gunning out people from CF. I’m not sure I see Hamilton sticking at SS, but I’m even less sure that he’s going to be a legitimate CF option. Beard August 5, 2012 Wanderin’ is Hamilton’s arm worse than Damon or Pierre or Dunn’s (later on)? Those guys aren’t CFs I know but I’m at least hoping to establish that Hamilton can play LF if u don’t think he can stick in CF. wanderinredsfan August 6, 2012 LF might be a fine fit for Hamilton, but I’d like to see if he can develop some arm-strength and refine his skills in the infield at SS. If it becomes clear that he can’t stick at SS, then either he should be flipped to a team needing a 2B or put in LF. An OF of Hamilton, Stubbs, and Bruce would sure shag down a lot of balls in the gaps. RobL August 5, 2012 I could see HRod getting the call to fill Cairo’s spot. I get the feeling that he is not viewed as an everyday player because of his lack of HR power(like 20 hr power). So I don’t think they are concerned about stunting his growth. Didi will not sit. If he doesn’t beat Cozart out in the spring, I think they will give Cozart until June to get his numbers up. If Didi is hitting in AAA and Cozart has a .300 obp, then they might make the move. I would think Perez will get a shot, but I’m sure they will bring in a couple vets on minor league deals for competition. These are just my gut feelings with no fact to back them up. And I have learned to not trust my gut. DaveCT August 5, 2012 Frazier replaces Rolen. I really hope FPerez or Paul can carry over and be an inexpensive LH bat on the bench next year Unfortunately, I think it is rare throughout the ML’s to have rookies come up as utility guys — its not just us. Teams seem to prefer the guys who know their roles, better yet, fill the role of sub well. I can see a limited Frazier/HRod split at 3B. Not much more. Didi stays at AAA, as suggested, until if/when he displaces Cozart. DaveCT August 5, 2012 Justin Freeman and Wilkin de la Rosa are catching some attention at AA. This seems like Freeman’s best year to date. He’s not a big guy, 6’1″ and 170. De la Rosa was with the Yankees and converted to the mound after several years whiffing as a position player. An old BA scouting report had him sitting at 92-93, with a slider. Hey if he continues to do well with us, he can look forward to being in one of the next trades. Wally August 5, 2012 Guys just to get this off my chest because you guys are family to me. My ex wife is a real SOB. Now that felt good Doug Gray August 5, 2012 That is why she is the ex. jim t August 5, 2012 Doug, a wise man once told me “you know why divorces cost so much. Because they are worth it”. jim t August 5, 2012 Wally, I had one of them a while back.I had to get rid of the Bi##h. She wanted to trade Votto. LMAO! Just kidding. After many angry minutes I decided it served me and the kids nothing to continue to dwell on things we can’t change. I put it behind me and believe it or not X’s new family and mine have even spent Xmas together, The kids are much more comfortable with the lack of tension and everyone is generally happier.I am much happier since putting my anger behind me. Lot less stress in my Life. Hope that helps. jim t August 5, 2012 Depending how the season ends and how Rolen finishes the year.I wouldn’t be surprised that if he finishes well he’ll be brought back at a reduced rate if he’ll accept. I think Frazier will getlots of PT but his versitility really is valuable. If Rolen doesn’t make it back Frazier takes over 3rd and a vet is brought in as insurance. I don’t think you’ll see H-Rod sitting the bench in Cincy rather than playing in Louisville. I think Ludwick is brought back but it will have to be mutually agreed upon. He will be looking for a multi year deal at least 2 years guranteed. If his production holds up he’ll get it here or somewhere else.If that occurs If he leaves I think you’ll see the reds go the trade route to fill that spot. Don’t seem to be a lot of confidence that Heisey could do the job full time. The key thinking will be get BP to lead off and someone to replace his production in middle of order. I see Stubbs coming back and LF is a power position. BaBull August 5, 2012 It has been said before – Rolen is done. He is a crafty ‘ol veteran so he will have spurts of production that just won’t last long. He will most likely continue to spend a lot of time on the DL going forward. That isn’t something a team values in a starter. I don’t see his pride allowing him to accept a back-up role. The triple he had last night was a thing of beauty but, when he slide ala Pete, I cringed. A play like that could lose him to the DL. In the end it worked but, the roster is stretched to the limit and can’t afford another loss right now. mauired August 5, 2012 No way Rolen even thinks about playing beyond this year. With his shoulder problems year after year after year, no one will give him guaranteed money. He’s bye-bye. That goes for Cairo too. 38 years old with a .150 average says time to move on. 3rd base belongs to Frazier next year, and backup could be Valaika if they want H-Rod in AAA for a little longer. Amazingly Ludwick went from probably not having his 5 million dollar option picked up to not wanting it. If he keeps it up and hits 25-30 homers, he can get a multi-year deal worth 20 million or more on the open market. I don’t know if they can afford to keep him, because half the player’s on the roster are due big raises next year. Mac624 August 5, 2012 Id offer Rolen a 1 year and $5 million deal. But, I’d b shocked if he’d accept that. He’s got a lot if pride and probably Hall of Fame bound and those type guys usually don’t want to go out as a bench guy or part time player. But I’d offer just to see cause u never know. I’d take his part time play and leadership over HRod any time, even though I really like Henry and as a utility guy I think he could help us. BaBull August 5, 2012 Mac624, I wouldn’t come close to 5 mil. That is just way too much money for what he would bring to the table and what a player to fill the role he would be required to fill should cost on the open-market. If I were him, I would go out on my own terms with my dignity still intact. It is cringe-worthy to watch a once great athlete over-stay his welcome. He can’t stay healthy and his bat speed can be timed with a sundial. The wife and kids are at home. They miss ya, Scott. MK August 5, 2012 I’ve not heard Rolen say he is done or thinking about being done so I think he might play somewhere. Unless they would plan for him to start (ugh) I just don’t know what he would bring to the table for the Reds. Off the bench he can play one position and pinch hit. In this day and age of 12-man pitching staffs that lack of versatility isn’t very helpful. Doug Gray August 5, 2012 I have heard him hint at this being his last year more than a few times this eason. Greg August 5, 2012 Does anyone think that chapman starts getting cy young consideration Guy August 5, 2012 I don’t see why not. Each of the past two years two different relievers got votes for cy young. Doug Gray August 5, 2012 I think he might, but I don’t believe for a second that he should. Relievers simply aren’t as valuable as starters. MK August 5, 2012 Dragons’ win 3 in row 5 of 6. Late playoff run. zblakey August 5, 2012 Explain: Luckwick’s contract: His deal includes a $5 million mutual option for 2013 with a $500,000 buyout. Does the mutual part mean either party can elect not go forward with the deal in 2013? At this point would he be able to make more on the open market? Cbus August 5, 2012 Both parties have to accept the option or he is a free agent. Unless Ludwick falls apart he’d be dumb to accept the option, I bet he could get 7-8mil/year as a free agent and probably get a 2-3 year contract. Yeah August 5, 2012 Just out of curiosity, if the Reds pick up the option and Ludwick declines it, does he have to pay the $500k? Wonder how often that happens..