8/21 Game Review

Louisville lost 10-7. Box Score

  • Didi Gregorius went 2-5 with a double, run and 2 RBI.
  • Denis Phipps went 1-4 with a walk.
  • Felix PErez went 3-5 with a double and 2 runs.
  • Mike Costanzo went 1-2 with 2 walks and 2 runs.
  • Corky Miller went 1-3 with a walk, RBI and a run.
  • Cody Puckett went 1-3 with a walk and 2 RBI.
  • Nick Christiani threw 3 shutout innings with 2 walks and a strikeout.
  • JJ Hoover threw a shutout inning with 3 strikeouts.

Game notes

JJ Hoover lowered his ERA to 1.22 on the year and now has 55 strikeouts and 12 walks in 37 innings.

Pensacola lost 4-2, 3-1 in a double header.

Game 1: 4-2 loss. Box Score

  • Billy Hamilton went 1-2 with 2 walks and 4 steals (147).
  • Beau Mills went 2-4.
  • Tucker Barnhart went 1-3 with a HR (5) and 2 RBI.
  • Tony Cingrani allowed 2 runs in 7 innings with 2 walks and 7 strikeouts.

Game 2: 3-1 loss. Box Score

  • Billy Hamilton went 1-2.
  • Josh Fellhauer went 1-3.
  • Beau Mills went 1-1 with 2 walks and a run.
  • Donald Lutz went 2-3 with a double and an RBI.
  • Chad Rogers allowed a run in 4 innings with 2 strikeouts.

Game notes

Billy Hamilton is now on top of the minor league record book with steals and he has time to add to his new record. Tony Cingrani took a perfect game into the 6th inning before losing his perfect game, no hitter and shut out on three consecutive hitters. Tucker Barnhart’s two run home run tied up the game with 2 outs in the 7th (and would be final inning had the game not been tied).

Bakersfield won 5-2. Box Score

  • Theo Bowe went 2-4 with a run and a steal (59).
  • Ryan Wright went 2-3 with a walk, HR (10), 2 RBI and 2 runs.
  • Juan Duran went 1-3 with a walk.
  • Devin Lohman went 1-3 with a double, steal (29) and a walk.
  • Chris Berset went 1-3 with an RBI.
  • Josh Smith allowed 2 runs in 6 innings with 3 walks and 6 strikeouts.
  • Blaine Howell threw 2 shutout innings with a strikeout.
  • Carlos Contreras struck out all three hitters he faced.

Game notes

In most years Theo Bowe’s 59 steals would easily lead an organization. Josh Smith continues along with another good pitching performance.

Dayton won 6-3. Box Score

  • Juan Perez went 2-5 with a double and a run.
  • Sammy Diaz went 2-4 with a walk, RBI and 2 runs.
  • Joe Terry went 1-3 with 2 runs and a walk.
  • Sean Buckley went 2-2 with 2 doubles, 2 walks and 3 RBI.
  • Nick O’Shea went 1-4 with an RBI.
  • Radhames Quezada threw 4 shutout innings with a walk and 5 strikeouts.
  • Wes Mugarian allowed 2 runs in 4 innings with a walk and 4 strikeouts.

Game notes

Radhames Quezada lowered his ERA to 3.28. Sean Buckley had a big night, reaching base four times and driving in 3.

Billings lost 5-3. Box Score

  • Beau Amaral went 1-4 with a run.
  • Jesse Winker went 1-4 with a double and a run.
  • Carlos Sanchez went 2-4 with a double, triple and an RBI.
  • Zach Vincej went 2-4.
  • Robert Ramirez went 2-3 with a double and a walk.
  • Jon Moscot threw 3 shutout innings with a walk and 3 strikeouts.
  • Jordan Remer threw a hitless inning with a walk.
  • Alejandro Chacin threw 2 shutout innings with 2 strikeouts.

Game notes

Carlos Sanchez tied the Pioneer League record with 11 triples. He is now hitting .315. Zach Vincej is hitting .422 since signing a few weeks ago. Alejandro Chacin lowered his ERA to 1.85.

AZL Reds won 1-0. Box Score

  • Humberto Valor went 2-3.
  • Jonathan Reynoso went 2-3 with a run and a steal (28).
  • Daniel Paula went 2-2 with an RBI.
  • Nick Travieso threw 4 shutout innings with a walk and 4 strikeouts.
  • Wandy Peralta threw 2 shutout innings with a strikeout.

Game notes

The game was ended early, likely by rain as several AZL games also ended early. Nice start by Nick Travieso, making the longest start of his career. Jonathan Reynoso raised his line on the season to .339/.354/.455.

Game preview

Team 1st half 2nd half Time Probable Box Score Listen Live Watch Live
Louisville 50-82 N/A 7:05pm
Texeria Here Here
Here
Pensacola 34-35
29-29 7:00pm
TBA
Here
Here
Here
Bakersfield 41-29 23-34 10:15pm
Renken
Here
Here
N/A
Dayton 30-40 25-30
7:35pm
Stephenson
Here Here
N/A
Billings 21-17 16-7
9:15pm
TBA
Here Here
Here
AZL Reds
16-32 N/A
10:00pm TBA
Here N/A
N/A

71 Responses

  1. IndyRedsFan

    It’s just a darned shame that the Reds gave up 2 prospects for Broxton when Hoover likely would have been a better option.
    After a good start, Broxton has now given up runs in 3 of his last 4 appearances (5 runs in 3 1/3 innings). And a whopping 3 K’s in 6 IP as a Red.
    And to make matters worse, they’ll let him walk after the season.
    Doug……..you were absolutely right on this one.

    • jim t

      Key word is likely. Using Hoover in the same role as Broxton isn’t a slam dunk. Using a comparison of stats to a guy pitching in AAA versus a guy pitching 8th inning in a pennant race is not even close.

      • Doug Gray

        It isn’t like Hoover wasn’t getting things done in the Majors in the brief time he was here.

      • jim t

        Doug, pitching the 8th inning in a penant race is just a tad different than pitching to a 3.00 era in apr and may. I think Hoover has a future as I do Mez but throwing them in to a situation they may not be ready for in the middle of a penant race is not a good decision.

      • mac624

        Couldn’t agree more Jim. Hoover may have handled that well, but if you are “all in” as Jocketty has claimed from the get go, you go with guys that have been there before, not on unproven ones.

        Like it or not, the trade was made for the post season. If Broxton falters then, let the criticism flow, but if he succeeds in his role, then it will be well worth it in my mind.

        Time will tell…..

      • foxbud

        Broxton was an unnecessary trade by any definition. Even if this was a playoff move only, proper handling would still have made Hoover and Masset as possible legit options by then. It was a move just to make a move.

        If they were worried about the playoff roster, they should have gotten a LH bat.

      • BaBull

        I couldn’t have said it better myself, foxbud. It was a PR move for the unwashed only.

      • jim t

        PR move my fanny. They are drawing and in first place. So in your mind a PR move was needed to generate something???? This team doesn’t need PR moves in case you haven’t notice they are very good. People who continue to look for the assasin on the grassy knoll will always be diverted from the truth.

      • jim t

        Massett has not pitched in ML’s this year and his last outing at AAA he gave up 4 runs and didn’t finish the inning. Kudos to Walt for bringing in a established arm instead of going with a untried ,untested rookie.

      • sultan of swaff

        Sorry, talent trumps all. There are plenty of rookies handling key bullpen roles all around baseball. Kimbrel last year, Addison Reed (ChiSox) this year. It’s not like this is Hoover’s first rodeo. For guys drafted as relievers, they’ve pitched in these high leverage situations their whole careers. If you are a competitive person, you value every opportunity to compete equally.

        I mean, by that logic, no GM in their right mind would play Frazier and Cozart in the middle of a pennant race, right?

      • jim t

        Certainly your not comparing Hoover to Kimbrell or Reed. Putting Hoover in the role of 8th inning set up guy was a risk we didn’t have to take.It is also a option that is still available. Bringing Broxton in for two prospects wasn’t a problem.

      • jim t

        As mentioned apples and oranges. If that is the only option they have what choice is there. If your asking would they rather have a experienced vet I’d say most if not all would opt for the Vet especially in a penant race. We have a chance to win this thing and get to the series. That doesn’t happen every year in our market. I would leave no stone unturned if I were Walt.To risk coming up short for a couple of mid level prospects is crazy. As a old race horse gambler Let me say this. There is better gambles out there.

      • BaBull

        Walt left plenty of ‘stones unturned’. He turned over a very heavy stone in the person of Broxton. I said it before and I will say it again, the Broxton move doesn’t make sense. Hoover is and was already in place. The move was strictly a PR move for those that don’t pay attention to anything but the blurb in the paper.

      • MK

        If Hoover could be compared favorably to Kimbell he would be setting in the Atlanta bullpen next to Kimbrell.

        Sometimes trades are made to not only help your ballclub, which I think this one did, but also so one of your competitors can’t improve picking up the same player. I think it was in ’95 when the Reds got Mariano Duncan from New York so the Braves didn’t pick him up.

      • sagevic

        Hoover was not going to be pitching for the Reds in the 8th inning this year. It wasn’t going to happen.

        Has Broxton been nails? No, not really. He’s been shaky, and cost us one game. SO has every other member of the Bullpen at some point. It’s such a small sample on Broxton that calling it a bad trade is way premature.

        And the way that middle relievers are so undervalued now, I can’t see how everyone is so freaked out about trading Joeseph and Sulburan. JC was a starter but is a long shot to make the bigs at this point in his career, and Joeseph, while he should certainly become a Big Leaguer soon, is never going to be more than a set-up man.

        We needed late inning help. Neither Ondrusek and Aredondo are throwing it well enough to justify putting them in that position. If Masset and Bray had recovered, there would have been no Broxton trade.

      • Doug Gray

        No, Hoover wouldn’t be pitching the 8th. But the point is that Broxton shouldn’t be either. The 8th should be Marshall and the 9th should be Chapman.

        As for Broxton, nothing he was doing in KC suggested he was going to be all that good here. He doesn’t miss bats. Relievers who don’t miss bats are scary. Relievers come into games with runners on. When you have runners on bases the last thing you want is the ball being put in play. On the current Reds bullpen staff, our 8th inning guy has the lowest K rate of all of them, by 2.7 strikeouts per 9 innings (his season total, not his Reds total, which would be 4.2). 2.7 strikeouts per 9 innings is 31% less than the next lowest strikeout guy in our current bullpen. Broxton may be added bullpen depth, but my point from the very beginning is that he should help the 6th inning at best, not the back end.

    • jim t

      Doug, runs the best site around but I don’t wouldn’t want him as my GM.LOL

      • BaBull

        Doug, for what it is worth, I would hire you in a New York minute for the GM job. Jimt, I understand loyalty but, every move doesn’t have to be apologized for. A man (in this case Walt) that can’t admit his mistakes isn’t worth his weight in salt. The move to get Broxton was a mistake – plain and simple.

      • jim t

        Not defending every move but trying to judge a move after a few weeks is laughable. In April it was the Latos deal and now its the Broxton trade. LMAO!!!!

      • Doug Gray

        I didn’t need to see a single game to forever love the Latos move and forever think we overpaid in the Broxton deal. That is how trades work, by going off of what you know at the time. At the time, I knew that Latos was a stud and I even said at the time I would have taken him over Cueto. I still like his future over Cueto’s to be honest, but Cueto certainly took a step forward this year over last year.

        At the same time, with the Broxton move it was simple…. his ERA was very nice in KC, but he wasn’t showing good control of the strikezone and he had a low strikeout rate. Those two things mean base runners and relying on your defense. Good pitchers don’t do either of those things. Broxton is a 6th inning reliever. He was before the trade and he is now. I didn’t need to see what he did in Cincinnati to know that and nothing he does the rest of this year is going to change my opinion on that. His stuff is that he has a good fastball and below average off speed stuff.

      • sagevic

        Once again, unless it’s a question of Payroll, what did we really give KC in return for him? Considering what we gave up for Marshall, what would have had to give up for a legit 8th inning guy?

        And while I agree that pitchers, particularly relief pitchers, have to strike out batters, there isn’t a magic number there of how many per inning to be succesful. High Strike out pitchers often struggle with walks and erraticism. Elite pitchers don’t, but we weren’t getting an elite pitcher back for Joseph and Sulburan.

        If Broxton can avoid walks and cheap home runs he’ll be successful this year. If he’s successful then we can go deep in the playoffs. That’s what we want.

        And if someone else traded for a better late inning reliever, gave up less to get him, and has had better results, then I will be happy to admit the Reds got taken.

      • BaBull

        The Latos deal made sense to me at the time. Maybe some didn’t like it but, I wasn’t one of them. Walt may have overpaid a bit but, for a front line starter it is well worth the gamble. I agree with Doug on this one. I don’t need to wait anymore time to see that the Broxton deal was bad. It didn’t and still doesn’t make any sense. Broxton is what he is – nothing special. He isn’t going to revert back to his LA days.

    • Greg

      Last night was a Fluke. If that ball to Phillips doesnt take a crazy hop over his head then he gets out of inning with just the 1 walk which was a non factor after the DP. The triple that that the guy hit down the 1st base line was a good pitch that he put a good swing on the ball. The thing that I would agree with Doug on is Brox inability to get the K.

    • Alan Horn

      I agree. It was a bad trade and not necessary. I’m on the band wagon that wants to throw Hoover out there in that situation. Sometimes you have to throw them into the fire. The good GM’s and managers know when and where to do it. That is a weakness of Dusty’s. He always errs on the side of precaution and prefers the vets whether they are the best choice or not. The other choices were Marshall, Arredondo, Simon, Ondrusek and Hoover. Not a bad pool of choices. I feel like I am in a spelling bee when I try to type some of those names. I mentioned in yesterday’s thread that we not only lost the service for us value of Joseph and Sulbaran, but we lost their value for another potential trade in the future. We come up empty on Broxton after the season unless he resigns(which is questionable for both sides).

      • jim t

        Alan, can’t disagree strongly enough. Those were two rookies Dusty has thrown in that hit big homers last night. Wasn’t it Dusty who has worked in Ondrusek,Leake,Cueto and others as well. This stuff that Dusty doesn’t understand how to use Vets versus rookies is unbelieveable. The team now that is outperforming all others in the central was almost entirely built from within and brought up on Dusty’s watch.To say he perfers this one over that one is crazy. Many things go into the decision as to who plays and who sits. Do most managers perfer someone with a track record, You bet.

      • Alan Horn

        Ask Janish, Francisco, Grandal, Boxberger and Joseph. All could have been contributing members of our bench or bull pen. Instead,
        we got Cairo, Valdez, Harris and Broxton. I agree he gave Frazier and Cozart a chance(he had no other viable options). There is a fine line between a track record and washed up with older vets.

      • jim t

        Alan, Janish was traded for some BADLY needed starting pitching depth. You do realize we have no one behind our 5 starters. Fransisco came to camp fat and out of shape in a make or break year for him. I say good riddance and I didn’t even mention his fielding or walk to strikeout rate. Grandall and Boxberger were dealt for Latos who is a top of the order pitcher who was team controlled for 3 years at time of the deal. Joesph hadn’t pitched in bigs and was terrible last year. We got a proven pitcher in Broxton to fortify the back of our rotation. Cairo was signed by Walt to a 2 year deal after performing very well in a support role. Valdez was signed to a league min contract to back up Cozart after Janish had a terrible season last year. Hindsight is always 20/20. I’ll also add while both Cairo and Valdez have not put up great numbers as subs they have both contributed toward some wins. Yes there is a fine line and we are walking it to the tune of 7 1/2 games in front and 26 over 500.

      • Alan Horn

        I have a difference of opinion in what exactly Broxton is proving. I also believe Francisco would have helped our situation(although I’m glad to have Hoover who also isn’t being utilized). We had no left handed bat off the bench for the first half and Francisco would have helped in Votto’s absence. Janish could have done everything Valdez has done and more cheaply. Give me Hortz back.
        Yes, we are still winning in spite of all this, but that doesn’t mean there has not been some blunders. We traded
        3 pretty good relief prospects in Hortz, Joseph and Boxberger(2 or them being left handers which we are short of). At least we got something of substance back in the Boxberger trade.

      • jim t

        So let me understand this. You want to second guess Walt for trading a few bull pen arms rather than praise him for putting togather a team that could very well win 100 games. Oh and by the way again Janish is not cheaper than Valdez.

      • Alan Horn

        I think to be accurate, one can do both. Overall, the team has done well. But that doesn’t excuse the fact that some bad trades were made that could hurt us now and down the road.

      • jim t

        What bad trades, Horst for Valdez? Hoover for Francisco? Grandall,Alonso,Volquez,Boxberger for 3 years of Latos. Janish for Redmond.

        Alan let me enlighten you these were not bad trades. The Frank Robinson trade was bad. The Giants giving up Foster was bad. The Red Sox giving up Babe Ruth was bad. The trades you mentioned aren’t even close and the jury is still out on all of them.

      • Alan Horn

        Horst for Valdez and Broxton for Joseph and Sulbaran. So far, not much return. I would rather have the 3 minor league pitchers not necessarily for this year but for the future(service and/or trade value). I’m for being all in this season, but if we make a trade, we need to get value going forward in return. We haven’t got that unless Broxton starts to right the ship. Frankly, if I were the manager, I would be hesitant to keep running him out there in the 8th inning when we have better options in the bull pen(especially with Hoover returning). The trades you mention were awful. That’s several levels worse than bad.

      • Doug Gray

        I don’t think the jury is out on the Francisco deal. Francisco isn’t going to hit in the Majors. Hoover is going to be able to pitch in the Majors.

        And nothing anyone says or anything that happens over the next 3-10 years is going to convince me that the Latos trade was a bad one. Had another team made it, it could have been, but they didn’t have what the Reds had at the time of the trade, so that doesn’t matter. For the Reds it was a great trade.

      • sagevic

        Alan, Grandal and Boxberger were traded for a front end starting pitcher with multiple years of team control. That wasn’t going to come cheap.

        Francisco forced the Club to move him with his ST performance, and so far he’s been historically bad at drawing walks in a Braves Uniform> we were very lucky to make that deal.

        Joeseph wasn’t going to throw high leverage innings for teh Reds this year. He may have in 2014, but not before then.

        Harris has been up in the Bigs a small number of games so far this year. A much younger player, Xavier Paul has become the left-handed bat off the bench.

        Cairo and Valdez are performing way under their level the last two years. Yes, they’re older and the bottom can fall out quickly on a player in his mid to late 30’s, but that doesn’t mean you should never sign one. It means you shouldn’t give one a long-term big money deal, and the Reds didn’t.

        The Reds’ Bench has been a huge plus this year, largely becasue of Frazier (who has shown he’s an everyday player) and having two qaulity catchers. Cairo and Valdez are not a pair of cement shoes around the Team’s ankles the way they get represented.

  2. MDRon

    Do they see Texeria as a starter or is he just the best available to them?

  3. jim t

    What are the chances that Votto makes it back before the rosters expand 1 Sept.?

    • The Duke

      Slim to none, and Slim is on his way out of town. After the setback and with the team playing so well, they will be cautious bringing him back. I’m guessing his first game back will be Sept 3 at home against the Phillies. Then he’ll sit the 4th, play the 5th, off day thr 6th, and back at it the 7th.

      • Rick D in Chicago

        If the current W-L trends between CIN-PIT-STL continue, then the Reds could be up 10 games by September 1st. Yeah, there is no good reason to rush Votto back. We need the fresh .350-.400 Votto hitting his stride come October. It’s enough to make one drool :)

      • jim t

        Rick and Duke, I agree. It also allows them to delay the decision as to who stays and who goes. When Votto comes back one of Heisey,Cairo,Valdez or Paul will be sent out. Tough decision for Walt. If they wait until rosters expand no one has to leave.

      • BaBull

        Valdez is the backup shortstop. He isn’t going anywhere. Dusty has a mancrush on Cairo. He is staying until his aul contract runs out. That leaves Paul and Heisey. With Luddy playing so well, that makes Heisey expendable. Paul is getting it done and he is a lefty. Heisey is the odd man out.

      • MK

        Valdez gets a really bad rap here. He is accomplishing exactly what he was acquired to do. Spot start in a lot of places, ability to play a good shortstop and if he adds something with the bat all the better. He is in his mid-30s and putting up the same stats he has his whole career. He is exactly the kind of player a championship team has on their roster. Jocketty knows what kind of player make up a championship roster.

      • RobL

        I agree. I think having him allowed the Reds to not have Janish on the 25. I think it is important, because Cozart would not have to look over his shoulder if he started to slump. Just last year, Janish was supposed to be the man at SS. They got Renteria as back-up and Janish immediately struggled and split time with Edgar. Having Valdez made the SS position clear cut. Cozart or bust.

      • jim t

        Walt signed Cairo. Votto won’t be back until after 1 sept. No one needs to go.

    • Doug Gray

      I won’t even say slim to none. I will just say none. There is no chance it happens.

  4. charliefunny

    Doug who do you promote toward the end of the season at each minor team to give them a taste for next year?
    AA: After their playoff run is over: LaMarre, Greene and 28 yr old Obispo, 27 yr old delaRosa & Serrano, 26 yr old Freeman (Should’ve been promoted midseason to decide Rule 5 draft & Judy released from AAA)
    A: 25 yr old Smith (Shouldve been promoted midseason)
    a: top players already promoted
    PL: Keep team intact for playoff run then 24 yr old Maddox
    AZL: Travieso, Salter & OF Matthews C Paula

    • Doug Gray

      I think Smith will say in BAkersfield to help them in the playoffs. The guys in AA are fighting for a playoff spot and Louisville is going nowhere.

      The AZL/Billings thing is interesting though. Billings is in a playoff spot right now, but they need to keep winning. I doubt Travieso moves up, but maybe a few other guys could head up if they finish out strong.

  5. Jer-B

    Good for Billy, can’t wait to see him and the Blue Wahoos pitching staff in Louisville next year!

    I liked the idea of getting a former closer and seasoned vet as the 8th inning righty setup guy, but getting rid of Joseph for a rental is just dumb! He has the stuff to be a back end lefty reliever for a long time.

    Not mad at the way Dusty handles young guys at all, Hanigan deserves more reps and will get the majority of the reps until his contract runs out. My only gripe is that Heisey should get more reps in CF and why Dusty picks Cairo as the first righty PH over Heisey is a mystery to me.

    • jim t

      JER-B, Dusty is using them per the situation. Heisey is much better against hard throwers and has more power. Cairo is a vet and strikes out less. If I need a home run I want Heisey hitting if I want to score a guy with less than 2 outs from 3rd I want Cairo. Those are tweo examples but there are many more. Dusty is managing to the strengths of his players and Needs. he is trying to put each in a postion he can succede in.

    • sagevic

      Joeseph had a good year this year, but has struggled the last two. He was strong right out of college and really didn’t get back into form until this season.

      So yeah, he could be really, really good. But he’s a very suspect prospect. I don’t think other teams would consider him a huge upgrade over players they already have. Yes, he’s left handed, but that shouldn’t cause him to be valued above his projection.

  6. mac624

    Now that Hamilton has the record, do the Reds call him up for the stretch run?

    Also, do we have any kind of info on Chacin? Young guy doing well in the Pioneer League. Low ERA as a reliever everywhere he’s been. Too many walks, but other than that seems to get outs.

    • RobL

      I think Chacin has a below average fastball, but a really good change-up. If I’m wrong, I’m sure Doug has the answer.

  7. sultan of swaff

    Gheesh, if Hamilton plays two more weeks he could end up with 160+ steals. It might be one of the most unbreakable records in sports.

    Get him to Cincinnati so he’s playoff eligible. I don’t care about the arbitration clock, because if he’s everything we think he’ll be, the Reds will lock him up long term and make arbitration a moot point.

    • Little Earl

      Coleman set the old record in 7 less games. So it is reasonable that someone else can come along and break it.

  8. CMT

    I’m getting really annoyed from some of the articles on Hamilton I’m reading today. Obviously breaking the SB record is the big news and getting all the attention, but I’ve seen several places now “analyzing” his potential future and focusing on his SBs and how previous SB guys have done in the majors. They focus solely on his speed, and don’t even mention what he is doing beyond the SBs this season.

    All of this focus on SBs is really missing the boat on Hamilton’s season. The SBs are a nice story, but what people should be focusing on is that, behind all the SBs, Hamilton has put up on OBP of .417 and OPS of .850 this season. These are the numbers that are very impressive and should get people excited. The SBs are great, but what is enabling those is the .417 OBP, which is very, very encouraging and is really what should be elevating him as a prospect.

    Maybe at the end of the season, when all the SB-fever has worn off, we’ll see some stories about the other (more important, IMO) numbers he put up this season.

    • Alan Horn

      I agree with what you are saying but the speed is what helps OBP a good deal. Overall, I think he is going to be a special player for us.
      Speed like Hamilton’s doesn’t come along that often. I’m more worried about where he lands on defense. I think it will be either LF or CF.

      • CMT

        Of course the speed will help the OBP as I would expect his career BABIP to be above average and sustain at that level. I’ve just read multiple articles that question how valuable a “SB/speed guy” will be. The guy has an OBP-heavy .850 OPS and will probably play a premium position (even if it’s CF). SB record or no SB record, that is a very good season. Hamilton is not just a SB guy. He’s putting up a great season even without the SBs.

        Regardless, I agree with you and I think he’s going to be special. I just think a lot of these articles are missing the forest for the trees a bit with what he has done this season.

      • sagevic

        In the modern game, speed is the least desired tool by sabermetrics guys. Stolen bases, even tons of them, just don’t move them very much.

        Billy’s had a great year getting on base. But so did all those other players or they wouldn’t have stolen 100+ bases either. Vince Coleman and Otis Nixon had solid careers, but no one here would be satisfied if that was where Billy Hamilton ends up.

        He has to keep getting on base at a high rate. That means few strikeouts and excellent discipline at the plate becasue he’ll never hit for big power numbers. That means his OPS will always se relatively low compared to other position players.

        Can he be a terrific Major Leaguer? Absolutely. Is it a lock? That just isn’t fair to put on him right now.

  9. RobL

    Okay, here’s my piece. The Broxton deal did and does make sense. The goal was an 8th inning reliever. First, Dusty and Walt got to see Hoover first hand earlier in the season. If they were comfortable with him as the set-up guy, he would not have been in the minors. I’m not saying Hoover doesn’t have a future as a set-up man, but for this year they did not want him in that role.
    While Marshall could fill the set-up spot, the void left by Bray (due to injury and ineffectiveness) created a need for a situational lefty. I will give the caveat that Horst or Joseph could have filled that need. But let’s remove Horst since he wasn’t on the team to start the year. Joseph could have been that guy. But we do not know what the Reds scouts thought of Joseph. They may feel he will be a high walk guy in the majors. But you can make a case for him.
    Ondrusek and Arredondo are totally unreliable as the both walk 5 an inning. You can’t have that in the eighth.
    So Walt decided not to go with Joseph, but go with a proven closer who was having a very good year. Makes sense.

    But Doug felt that the peripherals behind the ERA were not good. I felt like a wait and see approach was needed. And after 7 games, Doug has a very good point. When the ball is put in play, things happen. And lately they have been bad things. Do I expect people to have a BABIP over 400 against him for the rest of the season, no. But when all your outs come from grounders, there will be hits every time out.

    I’m going to wait till the season is over to pass judgement on the trade. I just hope Broxton’s luck turns when it’s needed most.

  10. MK

    If they get to the World Series this year then all the trades have been worth it. They have been to 9 since 1869. Although I have experienced 6 most of you have one. So the dye is set let’s wait and see.

    • Doug Gray

      You assume that if we make it there, and I hope we do, that it wouldn’t have happened had we not made one of those trades. We may have.

    • Alan Horn

      The bottom line is that Broxton is throwing base hits in his 8th inning set up role and it has been happening too often. He isn’t getting the job done when we hand him a lead. Do we keep running him out there to see if he can turn things around? I don’t agree with it, but I think they will no matter what. Right now if it were a close game in the world series, would anyone be comfortable running him out there in the 8th given what he has been doing.

      • RobL

        That is the question. Dusty is loyal to a fault. But it will only go so far. He pulled Marshall from the closer job when he struggled. I think he he has lost some faith in Arredondo. That is why they went out and got Broxton. I really think Dusty will try and get every pitch he can out of the starters. Hopefully Broxton stays positive and rides out this rough patch. And all the grounders go right to infielders. I will say that if the team needs a double play, give me Broxton every time.

      • Alan Horn

        I would say the same thing if the other team needs a double. Hopefully, he can turn things around. We are coming down to crunch time.