In this weeks State of the Farm article, we will take a look at the first base position. While the Reds do have Joey Votto locked up until my 40th birthday, as we have seen in the past 12 months, you can still use these guys to bolster your roster via trade or even to step in for Votto in case of an injury to fill in.
Neftali Soto was coming off of a 30 home run campaign in 2011, but he saw his power drop off as he headed to AAA to play with Louisville. Soto would hit just .245/.313/.400 for the Bats with 30 doubles and 14 home runs. The knock on Soto in the past has been his overaggressive approach where he boasted a 3.64 strikeout to walk ratio before 2011 in his career. During the 2012 season he improved that to 2.83, but the improvement did not lead to better results when he did swing the bat. More advanced pitchers were able to generate a higher rate of groundballs by Soto than ever before, with his career high of 50%. Soto still has plus power potential in his bat and the improved plate discipline is a nice step to see, but he still has work that he needs to do before he will be considered valuable to a Major League bench.
Donald Lutz had a breakout year in 2011 with the Dayton Dragons, though much like Soto, his plate discipline was a question mark. 2012 didn’t do much answer any questions about that. He would hit .265/.325/.561 with the Bakersfield Blaze before earning a promotion to Pensacola where he would hit just .245/.315/.389. While Lutz has plus power potential, he is over aggressive at the plate and pitchers have been able to take advantage of that at times. Lutz has spent time at both first base and in the outfield. Like Soto before him, he is going to need to round out his game before he will be considered for a spot on the Major League roster.
After those two guys, there is a drop off to the next level of players. Carlos Sanchez did some really nice things with the bat in 2012 for the Billings Mustangs as he hit .308/.346/.574, though he too has some questions with his plate discipline and unlike the other two previously mentioned guys, he is undersized at just 5′ 10″ and 175 lbs. He is worth keeping an eye on moving forward though as the power he showed was quite impressive. Dominic D’Anna missed the first half of the season with an injury and returned to hit .277/.386/.430 for the Blaze with 29 extra-base hits in 300 at bats. He has shown very good plate discipline in his career, though his home run power output has not been ideal for the position. While his ceiling may be as a utility type player who can pinch hit or play first, he brings something that none of the other first baseman have shown to this point with his excellent plate discipline. Robert Maddox once again showed off impressive power with Billings, but his age is catching up quickly and chances may be running out for him to make that next step. He improved his plate discipline this year as he repeated the level, but 2013 will be pivotal for his future. Sean Buckley showed off good power for the Dayton Dragons in 2012, but he didn’t do a lot of hitting outside of that with a .244/.307/.413 line to go along with very questionable plate discipline. There has been talk of trying him in the outfield, so he may not be limited to just first base. He will need to make improvements at the plate regardless of whether he sticks with first or moves to the outfield grass though.
Overall Thoughts
While the Reds certainly have several guys who are considered prospects at the position, none of them really stand out from a tools and performance standpoint. They all have rather large questions about their game that seem to limit them to likely being a back up if they don’t take big steps forward in some part of their game. So while there is depth at the position, the lack of a legit prospect leaves the position at a C, perhaps even a C-. There are simply too many questions at a position where you need to be a real threat at the plate to even be average in the Major Leagues.
How did the catching experiment with Soto go a couple years back? If it wasn’t a disaster, I would possibly revisit that idea given Votto blocks 1b and the weak state of catching in the farm. If he could be a serviceable 3rd catcher, it could make him a viable bench player.
It didn’t go well or he would still be there.
At the time, they had two top prospect catchers in front of him and the appearance that Votto might be leaving. Thus, I was hoping that they ended it because the need was more to have him at first than catcher. Just a thought.
He played 10 games there in a full season. There was a reason for it and it wasn’t because of the other guys in the system.
I think it would be good to remember that Lutz actually played more games (59) in left field than he did at first base (38) and am not sure the Reds don’t see him as a leftfielder long term.
I think it will also be interesting to see if the Reds have plans for Beau Mills. They had Guzman in Pensacola, who was having an All Star season when they acquired Mills and released Guzman. You would have thought that if they had only perceived Mills to be a roster filler they would have hung on to Guzman, who I understand was well liked by his teammates.
First base certainly isn’t a strong point in the minors. It is one position that doesn’t need to be with Votto. If Votto gets injured,
it is one of the easier positions to acquire a replacement. With that being said, we need depth at all positions ideally in the minors.
Lutz is about the only guy I can see with an outside chance to make it to the bigs as a 1B. The cupboard is pretty bare here, but one thing I wouldn’t do is draft a first baseman. It’s just too easy to convert a 3B/LF/C.
I know we graduated a lot of guys, but the system is really lacking some legit hitting prospects from low A on up.
Lutz is the only guy I like, as he’s about a .300/.370/.550 hitter vs RHP so far. He’d be a nice platoon option (in LF) in potentially less than a year, but certainly by 2014.
Two more years of Dusty. So much for the silver lining for which I was hoping.
Great! 2 more years of seeing the Reds manager getting out managed!
It’s amazing how little the Reds brass factored in-game management and fan dislike when weighing their decision. To them, I bet 90% of their thought process was people skills. Also, why so soon to re-sign the guy? Were they really that worried some other team would snatch him up?? We have a good team that managers would kill for, so we had the leverage. You’d think they would try and use it.
You also have to wonder if there’s an opportunity cost. Like, instead of a $4mil manager who could (theoretically) net you 93 wins, you opt for a $1mil manager plus a $2mil reliever and $1mil backup infielder. Would that yield more wins??
I think Dusty is one of the top 3 paid managers in baseball. So we are paying top $$$ for a horrible in-game manager!
Castellini loves Dusty. Simple as that.
Castellini loves 99 wins, he is an executive he could give a crap about “Dusty” cares alot about results.
As a season ticket holder I couldn’t be happier.
I bet they factored 90% that the team has won two division titles in three years under Dusty. I’m not saying they would not have done as well with somebody else, but they have done very well with him. Whether fans dislike Dusty’s lineups or not, fans like a winning team. If the players love playing for him and the team wins more often than not, why try and change things? And please don’t say to win the WS, because the Reds could just as easily say that if Cueto doesn’t go down in game 1, they could have won the series.
Because the Reds have won 2 games out of 8 in the playoffs in those three years.
Wait, Dusty got no hit by Halladay? That was his fault, because of the lineup construction that they failed to get a hit. And the next game, did Dusty put on a glove and go out there and commit 4 errors?
Small sample size. Anything can happen in a short series. Like I said, if Cueto doesn’t get hurt, the Reds “might” be still playing.
Certainly, but the question was “why change things”. I gave one reason, of many that I could come up with, as to why you would.
There is a general belief that certain managers can get you to the playoffs, but that you need someone else to get you to the end of them. Is Dusty the guy who can get you into the playoffs but not take you to the championship? I don’t know. I don’t think so, because it has been painfully obvious seeing him be outmanaged in short series for just about his entire playoff career. Talent is generally going to win out in 162 games. But you need to be tactical in 5-7 game series and well, Dusty is one of the worst tactical managers around.
Doug, without the injury to Cueto and the lingering effects of Joeys knee injury all that could have been changed. Bringing in someone else could also have the opposite effect on the team. I fully understand why Bob C stuck with a known quantity. I’ll be renewing my tickets.
Dusty Baker, when it really counts, has been terrible at getting his team victories. He went 0-3 in elimination games in 2012. He went 0-1 in 2010. In 2003 with the Cubs he went 1-4 (they won the first round 3 games to 2, but were up 2 games to 1 but lost game 4 before winning game five. Then they were up 3-1 against the Marlins before losing 3 straight). With the Giants in 2002 he went 3-2. He went 0-1 in 2000. He went 0-1 in 1997.
That puts him at 4-12 in games that could have ended the playoff series. That ain’t getting it done.
I looked up TLR record in elimination games for comparison. He is 22-16.
Robl, he also didn’t leave 39 runners on base. He also didn’t commit errors. If rolen don’t misplay ground ball we may all be talking about how he out managed Bochy. I mean not bunting the runners over on first and second with 2 outs in 10th inning was the dumbest move the entire series. He was bailed out by passed ball abd Rolens error.Also Hanigan taking called strike 3 with runners going was huge in game 5. It is also easy to second guess his decision to stay with Latos against Posey. Who else was going to pitch to him? Also how much did Cozarts error figure into the loss? Was that Dustys fault? To say Dusty was outmanaged as the reason we loss is comical and self serving. Players lost the series not Dustys managing.
I tend to agree Jim. Dusty is not perfect, but he is not the problem. Put Frazier at 3B, resign Ludwick, and tread water until Hamilton is ready in CF. Pray that Rolen retires and we replace the dead weight on the bench which would be everyone but Paul and Mesoraco(and maybe Valdez because we don’t have anyone else right now). Dusty didn’t swing the bat for them and pitch poorly when that happened. A lack of timely hitting, Cueto’s injury and Votto’s bad knee were more the culprits than anything(Latos also pitched poorly the last time he pitched).
Of course leaving Latos in was a bad move. Not leaving Chapman in for the 10th in game 3 was a bad move (you win and you get multiple days off, you play to win like there is no tomorrow…. I know that the errors happened, but Chapman might strike those guys out and they never happen too. Should have left him in). Again, Dusty is 4-12 in his playoff career in elimination games. He isn’t the guy to get you far in the playoffs.
In Pensacola, Lutz did sport an 8% walk rate and reduced his K’s to 19.5. His power was down and so was his babip. I think he is a better looking prospect than Soto right now. But I do agree that he is far from a finished prospect. I also agree with MK, that his future with the Reds is (if any) is in LF.
The two are close. I figure they are probably going to follow one another in the prospect rankings.
Pensacola is death valley in right field as I understand it. Might be a reason for power outage in AA.
It actually isn’t, according to the numbers.
http://redsminorleagues.com/2012/10/01/park-factors-how-the-cincinnati-reds-affiliates-home-parks-play/
Doug, I told you so!!!!
Told me so what? I don’t have the slightest clue as to what you are referring to.