RedsMinorLeagues.com 2013 Top Prospects List #21-25 Doug Gray October 29, 2012 31 Comments It is my favorite time of the year (prospect wise). It is time for the 2013 Prospect List. This week I will post 5 prospects per day and on Friday along with the Top 5 guys, I will also have a discussion/chat (if possible to find free chat software). 25. Gabriel Rosa – 3B – 18 Years Old – RK+ Acquired: 2nd round, 2011 Draft The Good: Rosa is an athletic 6′ 4″ kid who has some speed and plenty of power potential. Needs to work on: Just about everything. He played through an injury in 2012 before shutting it down. He is still very raw both at the plate and in the field. 2012 Stats Tm PA 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG Billings 80 6 0 0 5 2 0 1 25 .179 .188 .256 Video – Unavailable 24. Bryson Smith – OF – 23 Years Old – AA Acquired: 34th Round, 2011 Draft The Good: Smith can play all outfield positions and has very high contact rates, leading to a good ability to hit for average. Needs to work on: Being more patient is a must as Smith walked just 3.9% of the time he stepped to the plate. 2012 Stats Tm PA 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS Bakersfield 238 8 1 5 38 8 7 13 33 .313 .376 .431 .807 Pensacola 166 5 5 1 31 4 1 3 23 .307 .333 .425 .758 Total 404 13 6 6 69 12 8 16 56 .310 .358 .429 .787 Video 23. Amir Garrett – LHP – 19 Years Old – RK+ Acquired: 24th Round, 2011 Draft The Good: Garrett is a very athletic left handed pitcher with a fastball that works in the low 90’s and can touch 96. Needs to work on: Just about everything. He hardly played high school baseball, missed a lot of time while playing basketball this spring, showed some control problems and has a very low innings total to build on. 2012 Stats Tm W L ERA G SV IP H HR BB SO WHIP K/BB AZL 0 2 5.79 7 0 14.0 14 1 12 13 1.86 1.1 Billings 0 0 0.00 2 0 6.0 4 0 1 5 0.83 5.0 Total 0 2 4.05 9 0 20.0 18 1 13 18 1.55 1.4 Video – Unavailable 22. Ryan Wright – 2B – 22 Years Old – A+ Acquired: 5th Round, 2011 Draft The Good: Wright has a relatively well rounded game with solid hitting ability, running and defense. Needs to work on: Wright doesn’t really have any particular thing that stands out as above-average on his resume. His plate discipline did fall apart in a short time in Bakersfield. 2012 Stats Tm PA 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG Dayton 429 27 6 5 50 14 1 32 51 .285 .343 .424 Bakersfield 102 5 2 5 16 3 1 2 17 .271 .284 .521 Total 531 32 8 10 66 17 2 34 68 .282 .331 .443 Video 21. Donald Lutz – OF/1B – 23 Years Old – AA Acquired: NDFA, July 2007 The Good: Lutz has impressive raw power and has shown it off in games as well. For his size, he is also quite fast. Needs to work on: Selectivity at the plate is a concern. His strikeout-to-walk ratio improved in AA, but his selectivity caused a massive drop off in power at the level. 2012 Stats Tm PA 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG Bakersfield 277 18 3 17 51 7 2 19 71 .265 .325 .561 Pensacola 165 5 1 5 15 1 3 13 32 .242 .315 .389 Total 442 23 4 22 66 8 5 32 103 .256 .321 .498 Video 31 Responses jim t October 29, 2012 Doug, having guys like Garett and Lutz this far down the list says a lot about the Reds Player developement dept. Rosa,Wright and Smith are all talented players as well. As you pointed out, Lutz needs work on plate discipline. Has lots of power and is a little more athletic than most realize. His baseball career got started late and he is playing catch up but his numbers indicate he has a chance to make a ML roster someday. Doug Gray October 29, 2012 Garrett will be ranked significantly higher up by Baseball America when their book comes out with the Top 30 from each team. Jim Callis really likes him. And I can understand why, but I just want to see something more than 20 pretty iffy innings. jim t October 29, 2012 Hope the Bearcats can help him figure out he should be a full time baseball player. Really excited that their season gets started tonight with the first exhibition game. Alan Horn October 29, 2012 Lutz has a lot of bat movement(especially just prior to the start of his swing). Likewise for Bryson Smith. Stock October 29, 2012 Thanks to Doug this is one of my favorite weeks of the offseason. My favorite will be the week they resign Ludwick, sign Bourn or trade for Gordon. I know wishful thinking. Good start to the top 25. Right in line with your love of the upside (Garrett and Rosa). Garrett doesn’t make my top 25 because I view him as a future RP and RP in rookie ball don’t make my top 25. If he ditched basketball he would easily be in my top 20. Rosa must have potential but until he shows some of it he doesn’t make my top 25. 21 Cisco 22 B Smith 23 Villareal 24 Yorman 25 Vincej I am pretty sure we will see Yorman in the coming days on Dougs list. Would be surprised to see Cisco and know we won’t see Vincej. RobL October 29, 2012 I have been really high on Lutz and think he is too low on the list. But that said, that swing needs work. Too much going on. He didn’t look like he hit any balls hard, and there was a lot of bad swings. On a positive, he does get down the line well. Doug Gray October 29, 2012 I figured Lutz would be the guy that most thought I was low on. I can make an argument that he could be a little bit higher, but I think most of it comes down to the fact that I am still not sure he is an outfielder and if he isn’t, then he is a first baseman and he has a long way to go to be a viable MLB first base bat. jim t October 29, 2012 Doug, anything to share on how Lutz’s transition to the outfield is going? Most of what I read says guy is athletic. I would think it would be harder to play 1st as opposed to LF especially seeing how he runs well. Most guys who play first aren’t mobile enough to play the outfield. Lutz doesn’t seem to have that issue. He is definitely a better athlete than Yonder. Doug Gray October 29, 2012 Lutz is still raw out there. He has the tools to make it work, but right now he isn’t capable of playing out there without an outstanding bat (at the MLB level). Norwood Nate October 29, 2012 Thanks Doug for your work. I too love this week and the discussion. No real surprises, as I expected all those guys to show up somewhere. Like others, was a little surprised to see Lutz this low. But I can see the arguments either way. Looking forward to the next list. I said last week, the top 8-9 or so are pretty easy to set. After that the next set are pretty tough to figure out and I would guess a lot comes down to preference. Personally I would have had Lutz in the top 15 or so, but I really like his upside with his power, assuming he gets that figured out. But early showings from AFL look good. Doug Gray October 29, 2012 Honestly, for me, once I got past my Top 7, it was a true struggle to figure out where to go. I think there is a significant drop off for me after #7. With your Lutz comment and the AFL…. I know he can hit for power. He has 45 plate appearances with 1 walk and 7 strikeouts. That strikeout rate is actually pretty good, but one walk is concerning. Plus, the AFL is generally a league where everyone hits. The pitchers are tired (in general, not all of them), the air is thin and the ball absolutely flies. RobL October 29, 2012 When hitters get in that zone, and everything they hit seems to drop for a hit (or homer), I think it is natural for the walks to diminish. I think that is what’s happening with Lutz, and it happened to Wright in Bakersfield. As soon as Wright got out there, he was hitting homeruns. I see it as a blip rather than a true indicator. I also thought that Wright would be higher, but when I looked at my list, he was only 18th. No real difference than 22nd. You’re right though, he doesn’t seem to have any outstanding tool, just solid across the board. Doug Gray October 29, 2012 I am right there with you. When you can hit it, do so. Generally though, as Keith Law said yesterday, pay no attention to AFL stats, only changes in skillsets (perhaps because of swing changes or mechanics of a pitcher or something like that). Norwood Nate October 29, 2012 Right on. My guess is that Stephenson, Hamilton, Corcino, Cingrani, Gregorius, Winker, HRod, and Travieso are going to make up the top 8. Lotzkar probably follows shortly after. So that’s 9. After that it is a crapshoot… RobL October 29, 2012 Doug, what are your feelings on Juan Silva? He walks alot, but he strikes out too much. If his babip is even a little low, then his batting line looks ugly. How is he in the field? Doug Gray October 29, 2012 I wouldn’t say he strikes out too much, but he isn’t a contact hitter. He can’t afford to strike out more than he does now or he gets into questionable territory. I like Silva, but don’t love him. Clearly someone who walks that much and can hold their own with hitting as well has a chance. Defensively he is pretty solid. He has some decent speed. I think he is more likely a backup/4th outfielder than a starter though. Kevin Davis October 29, 2012 Doug, Will the AFL Futures Game be on MLB Network this week-end? Thanks Doug Gray October 29, 2012 Yes, it is scheduled for 8pm. The Duke October 29, 2012 My 21-25 21) Seth Mejias-Breanz 3B, Rk 22) Ryan Wright, 2B, A+ 23) Bryson Smith, OF, AA 24) Pedro Villareal, P, AAA 25) Theo Bowe, OF, A+ Jim delaney October 29, 2012 Doug, was there anyone that was hard for you to keep out of the Top 25? Doug Gray October 29, 2012 There were about 4-5 guys that going into the list making portion, had you told me wouldn’t have been in, I would have been surprised. But my method is to go position by position and rank the players by position first, then I look at the top guy at each position and figure out who is the best among that group, then that guy gets ranked. I move his position list up so there is a new top guy at the position and move to the next spot. And so on. I don’t want to give away any names just yet because the list is still early on. But yeah, there were a few guys I like quite a bit, but couldn’t quite argue their way into the Top 25. In the past few years I have made it awfully clear about how I feel about relievers (which is, unless they are at least capable of being set up guys or closers and have few questions about them, they aren’t going to rank too highly), but I have guys who I can see being Major Leaguers not in the Top 25. Elliot October 29, 2012 Doug very informative and to be honest you do not a great job but a fantastic job in getting this together. Now at the risk of getting Mel involved(sorry old friend) I personally think Manno has to be thought of in the top 25. I know I know he does not not throw 95 MPH but I really think we have someone here who is just getting better and better what are you thoughts Doug Gray October 29, 2012 I don’t have a single reliever in the Top 25. There are clearly guys with Major League futures in the group of relievers that we have, but relievers are generally speaking, interchangable from year to year. Outside of 8th/9th inning guys, you should be able to find a few relievers every year from your farm system. Mel October 29, 2012 Elliot you did not read Doug’s last post about relievers. I may not agree with him but I at least read what he had to say. (only kidding Elliot) Listen the importance of setup men and the importance of having quality left hand pitchers in the Pen is of the utmost importance. Especially in playoff baseball. I have been accused of only participating when we speak of Manno but that is not true. I personally love that this young lefty flies under the radar. Do I think he belongs on the top 25. It does not matter what I think. I personally believe he will be a very important part of a major league staff soon. If it is the reds, I would love that , if not then another team. Speak to batters who have faced him , speak to Ringlemen,and his staff. More inportantly speak to his team mates . I have done all of the above and they all say the same thing. I am in NYC and its getting pretty bad where I am so I am going to sign off Doug Gray October 29, 2012 Stay safe Mel. Mel October 29, 2012 Elliot if you are in the neighborhood pass by please , no cell service sorry to use this blog for personal reasons MK October 29, 2012 I think there are three reasons for Lutz’s power drop off in AA. #1. It is AA and he was less than a year away from Low A. #2 Right field in Pensacola is supposedly death valley for left handed power hitters #3 And maybe most important, he had a fairly serious oblique injury at Bakersfield. His power was even reduced there after coming back. I would have had him higher. Doug Gray October 29, 2012 Right field was actually quite home run friendly in Pensacola. Surprising, given the cross wind, but it played very home run friendly this past season. MK October 29, 2012 I am really going to be interested to see Ryan Wright’s progress. It was his first full season year and in Dayton prior to his promotion you could really tell he was wearing down. His bat slowed down and he got a little sloppier in the field . His numbers should be better when he develops that stamina, although I think he will project at third base. wanderinredsfan October 30, 2012 Q: Will Rosa remain at 3b, or do we expect him to be moved to the OF? Doug Gray October 30, 2012 That is a good question that I wish I had an answer for. He actually spent some time this year back at shortstop before he went on the DL for the season. I know that some scouts thought he should head to center field when he was drafted, but the Reds have avoided that so far.