RedsMinorLeagues.com 2013 Top Prospect List #6-10 Doug Gray November 1, 2012 25 Comments To see the other parts of the Top 25 Prospect List, click here. Just a reminder that I will hold some sort of All Questions Answer or a Chat tomorrow afternoon to address any and all questions about the list once it is completed. 10. Yorman Rodriguez – OF – 19 Years Old – A- Acquired: NDFA, August 2008 The Good: No player in the system has a toolset that can match that of Rodriguez, who has several above-average or plus raw tools. Needs to work on: Plate discipline remains an issue that is holding back the use of his hit and power tools. If he can improve his plate discipline, the sky could be the limit for Rodriguez. 2012 Stats Tm PA 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG Bakersfield 94 4 0 0 7 4 0 3 39 .156 .181 .200 Dayton 277 17 3 6 44 7 5 12 61 .271 .307 .430 Totals 371 21 3 6 51 11 5 15 100 .241 .274 .371 Video 9. Henry Rodriguez – 3B – 22 Years Old – MLB Acquired: NDFA, March 2007 The Good: Rodriguez has a strong hit tool from both sides of the plate and can play defense all around the infield, though his best position seems to be third base. Needs to work on: Rodriguez struggled after retuning from a hand injury in the second half of the season. Coming back healthy and regaining his stroke could put him in line to help the big league club sooner rather than later. 2012 Stats Tm PA 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG Pensacola 144 6 0 2 15 3 0 9 18 .348 .385 .439 Louisville 221 10 0 3 20 5 4 6 35 .244 .264 .333 Milb Totals 365 16 0 5 35 8 4 15 53 .284 .311 .374 Cincinnati 16 1 0 0 2 0 0 2 2 .214 .313 .286 Video – Unavailable 8. Kyle Lotzkar – RHP – 22 Years old – AA Acquired: 1st Round, 2007 Draft The Good: Lotzkar has two above-average pitches with his fastball and breaking ball. He uses them well to rack up strikeouts and finally made it through a full season for the first time since being drafted. Needs to work on: As noted, this was the first year that Lotzkar was able to make it a full season. Continuing to keep his health and refine his control as a season wears on. 2012 Stats Tm W L ERA G SV IP H HR BB SO WHIP BB% K% Bakersfield 3 0 2.39 5 0 26.1 22 2 10 27 1.22 9.1% 24.5% Pensacola 4 6 5.21 18 0 86.1 77 12 53 96 1.51 13.5% 24.4% Totals 7 6 4.55 23 0 112.2 99 14 63 123 1.44 12.5% 24.5% Video 7. Didi Gregorius – SS – 22 Years old – MLB Acquired: NDFA, August 2007 The Good: Gregorius is an above-average defender with strong range and a strong arm. Offensively he has good contact rates and has some untapped power potential. Needs to work on: The development of his untapped power potential may be the difference between Gregorius becoming an above-average starting caliber shortstop and a glove first starting caliber shortstop. 2012 Stats Tm PA 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG Pensacola 359 11 8 1 31 3 4 29 49 .278 .344 .373 Louisville 202 10 3 6 23 0 2 12 31 .243 .288 .427 MILB Totals 561 21 11 7 54 3 6 41 80 .265 .324 .393 Cincinnati 21 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 5 .300 .300 .300 Video - Unavailable 6. Tony Cingrani – LHP – 23 Years Old – MLB Acquired: 3rd Round, 2011 Draft The Good: Cingrani has a plus fastball to go along with a potentially above-average change up to go with a slider. Control is a big part of his game as well. Needs to work on: Being more consistent with his change up and improving his slider which lacks well behind his other two pitches. Without the improvement from his slider he may wind up in the bullpen rather than the rotation. 2012 Stats Tm W L ERA G SV IP H HR BB SO WHIP K/BB BB% K% Bakersfield 5 1 1.11 10 0 56.2 39 2 13 71 0.92 5.5 5.9% 32.3% Pensacola 5 3 2.12 16 0 89.1 59 7 39 101 1.10 2.6 11.1% 28.9% MILB Totals 10 4 1.73 26 0 146.0 98 9 52 172 1.03 3.3 9.1% 30.2% Cincinnati 0 0 1.80 3 0 5.0 4 1 2 9 1.20 4.5 9.1% 40.9% Video 25 Responses Little Earl November 1, 2012 So I assume that his top 5 will be Hamilton, Stephenson, Corcino, Winker and Travieso. The only surprise there is Travieso. If Cingrani was a proven starter, he would be in the top 5. Doug Gray November 1, 2012 If Cingrani were a for sure starter in my mind he would at worst have ranked #3, perhaps #2. jim t November 1, 2012 Doug, really like these 5. Lots of potential. I would love to see the light come on for Y-rod this year. He would be a huge boost to the farm system and big league team. Really short on outfielders ready to step up to the bigs.LF and CF are wide open unless we trade or sign a low level guy looking to rebound his career. He has all the raw ability you want in a prospect. Hope he can put it together this year and get back on the fast track. Lotzkar,Cingrani,Stephenson and Corcino add great depth and potential to our rotation going forward. If Didi’s power can play anywhere close to Cozarts SS will be settled for quite awhile. Henry Rodiquez can replace Cairo’s output now the only question is do you make him a utility guy now or play him everyday in AAA and see if he is more than that. I would like to see him on big league roster. I think certain players can develope at that level even with reduced playing time while waiting for their opportunity. Sultan of Swaff November 1, 2012 That’s a fair argument for HRod. It’s in his best interest and the Reds to have him come into camp healthy, re-establish at AAA, and possibly take over 3B. Too bad it doesn’t preclude the Reds from having to make a decision about 3B/LF before then. That said, if HRod being on the roster prevents another Wilson Valdez from making the team, I’m willing to make that sacrifice. The Duke November 1, 2012 My 6-25 6) Jesse Winker, LF, Rk 7) Ismael Guillon, SP,A- 8) Mariekson Julius Gregorious, SS, AAA 9) Henry Rodriguez, 3B, AAA 10) Kyle Waldrop, OF, A- 11) David Vidal, 3B, AA 12) Ryan Lamarre, CF, AA 13) Tanner Rahier, 3B, AZL 14) Kyle Lotzkar, SP, AA 15) Tucker Barnhart, C, AA 16) Doland Lutz, LF, AA 17) Jeff Gelalich, OF, Rk 18) Chad Rogers, P, AA 19) Dan Langfield, P, Rk 20) Drew Cisco, SP, Rk 21) Seth Mejias-Brean, 3B, Rk 22) Ryan Wright, 2B, A+ 23) Bryson Smith, OF, AA 24) Pedro Villareal, P, AAA 25) Theo Bowe, OF, A+ I’m not nearly so sanguine on YRod. Does he have the raw ability to be the top player in the system? Yes, but whether it’s maturity, or work ethic, or personality, or just had luck, he just has never impressed me all that much when I see him in person. I am always underwhelmed. Waldrop may not have the stats yet, but I think he is poised for a breakout year. He’s the anti-Yorman in regard that every time I see him he does something that imoresses me. Whether it’s tracking down a long fly ball, making a great throw, or putting a nice swing on a ball. I may have him higuer than most, but I believe what i’ve seen. HRod and The General are no brainers. Talent is obvious, they just need to catch up to the level jump. HRod may end up a utility guy, but his ability to make contact will make him a major leaguer. The General’s defense alone at SS will give him a chance to start at some point. Guillon has 2 MLB pitches already, and the good makings of a third one, and mixes them well. Excited to see what he can do in a complete year in full season ball. Winker could end this year in the top 2-3, but he had a great debut. Ideally we’ll see a little more power from him this year and see that he can stick in the OF. mace November 1, 2012 I’m with you on Waldrop. Surprised that Doug doesn’t have him in the top 25, at least. Waldrop is a big, strapping athlete, so I would expect that he’s not deficient in the tools area. Also agree with you on Y-Rod, Guillon, Cisco and most of the rest. MK November 1, 2012 I guess everyone has a different way of looking at this. Doug has always been a high tools guy, similar in approach to Jim Bowden who tried accumulate as many 5-tool outfielders as he could find. I am more of a baseball player guy that worries more about how they play, their success in baseball skills and hustle more than the tools they use. Both systems can be correct or incorrect. So a Waldrop/ Y-Rod argument is inevitable. And, you are both correct in your thinking, although I do think Y-Rod might have turned a corner in the second half of 2012. Stock November 1, 2012 I am not so sure being compared to Bowden was on Doug’s bucket list. I do agree they both love the tools. Luckily for Doug he combines tools with Sabermetrics. Terry M November 1, 2012 I don’t think Doug has any leather pants either… Doug Gray November 1, 2012 You would be correct. However I was once in an elevator with him. MK November 1, 2012 In retrospect that wasn’t much of a positive comparison. Sorry about that, although the elevator thing counts. Doug Gray November 1, 2012 I thought about hitting him with one of my crutches, but decided I would like to return to GABP, so I didn’t. MK November 1, 2012 Off the subject but Phillips sure got rooked on the Gold Glove. I guess we have to remember it was the Cubs Official Scorer that turned Ryne Sandberg into a Gold Glover. I was at a Cubs game once against the Reds when Sandberg had an errorless streak going. He dropped a perfect throw at second for an easy fielder choice force out and they gave the batter a hit. Whether you like him or not Phillips is the best at second. jim t November 1, 2012 MK, ABSOLUTELY!!! If your going to ptich in GABP you better have a good D behind you. The reds had 6 guys nominated. Every pitcher on that staff has to be delighted he is in the field behind them.+ Stock November 1, 2012 I agree. Phillips is the best. I grew up in Illinois and watched Cubs games all the time. There were many times Sandburg received the benefit of the doubt in the field. Sultan of Swaff November 1, 2012 YRod–This guy’s a mess, outside my top 20 until he shows at least one offensive tool. On the video, his head is behind his back leg on contact (or lack of), when it should be above the center of his body (Pujols is a the perfect example of good balance). HRod–It gives me the creeps when a player’s value is so tied to his batting average, but I agree his hit tool is strong enough to overcome it. Didi–How can a guy with 11 triples only have 3 stolen bases?!? Like HRod, Didi should be using the running game more. I just hope he doesn’t sacrifice what little plate discipline he has for power. Cingrani—I don’t get the criticism of him as a two pitch guy. During his callup, his slider was very effective vs. lefties. Vs. righties, it’ll just be a show-me pitch. Factor in the plus fastball/changeup, and he should stick as a starter….assuming he has the stamina for it. Either way, you can’t trade this guy. Except for a guy named Chapman, LH arms like this don’t come along every day. For me, he has top of the rotation potential, whereas Corcino is more of a #3 ceiling, which is why I’d have TC higher. Doug Gray November 1, 2012 With Cingrani, there is a little more than I wrote to it all. I just am trying to keep things brief with these. Take his MLB call up for example. He threw his fastball 91% of the time. While it wasn’t that bad as a starter, he still overwhelmingly threw his fastball. He is a guy who simply doesn’t trust his other two pitches enough. At 23, that is a bit of a red flag, even if you generally do have above-average command of a very good fastball. Major Leaguers can still hit plus fastballs, especially when they know it is coming. He has work to do to prove he can start, at least for me. As I said above, if I were 100% sure he could be a starter, he would have ranked #2 or #3. MK November 1, 2012 Just watched a Pujols hitting demonstration video on YouTube and his head is further behind his back knee that Y-Rod is in this one. Their set-ups are different but there isn’t much difference at point of contact. Doug Gray November 1, 2012 You can’t teach bat speed. You can teach swing mechanics. Yorman has bat speed that others don’t. At this age, I am only slightly concerned about mechanical issues. clint November 1, 2012 Anything sticking out to you about Reds 2012 draft picks Mason Felt or Jeremy Kivel Doug? Doug Gray November 1, 2012 I like both guys, but there really isn’t a ton out there on them and I have not really seen either guy pitch. Dan D November 1, 2012 The Reds are loaded with starting pitchers coming up:Cingrani, Stephenson,Guillon,Corcino,Travieso,Lotzkar and to a lesser level Rogers,Cisco and Langfield. Who do you feel will be a top of the rotation starter? Who do you feel are untouchables? Who do you feel will never make a start in the majors? Doug Gray November 1, 2012 Stephenson is untouchable to me. Travieso can’t be traded right now anyways, so he isn’t really included. Stephenson has legit ACE type of stuff. The kind of ACE where scouts talk about there only being a handful of them in the Majors. The rest of the guys I would be willing to trade in the right deal. Cisco is probably the least likely to make a MLB start because aside from Travieso, he is the furthest down the chain. I like all of those guys though, but clearly Cisco is behind the rest of them for now. clint November 1, 2012 Thanks for answering my questions! I’m just really curious about a lot of these guys. Do you think Drew Hayes will be a useful reliever? Also I’ve seen you talking about Josh Ravin throwing 100 mph??? I’ve never heard of the guy. Legit prospect? Doug Gray November 1, 2012 I like Hayes quite a bit. In terms of for sure relief prospects, he might be the best one of the bunch. Two above-average pitches for him with his fastball and breaking ball. Ravin is a prospect, but he has some work to do. He has had high walk rates since the beginning. He has the arm to be a good Major Leaguer, but he needs to become more consistent with his ability to throw strikes. It really comes and goes at times.