The news from yesterday was that the Reds hope to acquire a closer so they can move Chapman to the rotation. I have never understood the idea that you need someone to come in to close before making Chapman a starter. Having a quality starter is a lot more valuable than having an elite closer. It is a lot easier to find a decent closer than it is to find even an average starter, much less one that is better than average. While there are always injuries that arise, if Chapman finds his way to the rotation, that locks in Cueto, Latos, Bailey and Chapman into the rotation through at least 2015. That leaves just one open spot, assuming no trades or major injuries for a decent sized group of starting pitchers in the Reds system who could be ready to help before then.
Baseball America has up a list of free agents from each team. Here is the list of Reds free agents:
RHP: Andrew Brackman (HiA), Carlos Fisher (AAA), Sean Gallagher (AAA), Mike Griffin (AA), Tim Gustafson (AAA), Wirfin Obispo (AA), Chad Reineke (AAA), Jordan Smith (AAA), Kanekoa Texeira (AAA)
LHP: Wilkin de la Rosa (AA), Will Ohman (AAA), Travis Webb (AAA)
C: Corky Miller (AAA), Brian Peacock (AAA)
2B: Chris Valaika (AAA)
3B: Mike Costanzo (AAA), Niko Vasquez (LoA)
SS: Miguel Rojas (AAA)
OF: Willie Harris (AAA), P.J. Phillips (AAA)
A few of those guys have already signed elsewhere (Obispo and Smith that I know of). I would expect some of them to sign back with the Reds.
I am working on a new page for the website that shows who is eligible for upcoming Rule V drafts. I had some help getting it together, but am still working on the formatting of it. In a little less than two weeks teams will be required to make their 40 man roster decisions to set the roster before the winter meetings begin and the Rule V draft is held. A day or two before the rosters are set I will put out an article about who is eligible and who is likely to be protected. Then before the winter meetings happen I will go through again and discuss who is at risk for being selected.
Here are the results of the Fan Top 10′s. I took the polls that were submitted and assigned points for each vote. While only the Top 10 is a true reflection of the fan votes, I listed everyone who received at least one vote from a Top 10. Only Hamilton, Stephenson and Corcino made every Top 10 list, with Winker and Cingrani missing on one list each.
| Rank | Player | High Rank |
| 1 | Billy Hamilton | 1 |
| 2 | Robert Stephenson | 1 |
| 3 | Daniel Corcino | 3 |
| 4 | Tony Cingrani | 2 |
| 5 | Didi Gregorius | 1 |
| 6 | Jesse Winker | 4 |
| 7 | Nick Travieso | 4 |
| 8 | Henry Rodriguez | 5 |
| 9 | Yorman Rodriguez | 6 |
| 10 | Kyle Lotzkar | 6 |
| 11 | David Vidal | 8 |
| 12 | Ismael Guillon | 7 |
| 13 | Dan Langfield | 7 |
| 14 | Donald Lutz | 9 |
| 15 | Neftali Soto | 7 |
| 16 | Seth Mejias-Brean | 9 |
| 17 | Chad Rogers | 10 |
| 18 | Kyle Waldrop | 10 |
Here is an update on the guys playing winterball:
| BATTERS | LG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| Fellhauer, Josh | VWL | 25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | .200 | .310 | .240 | .550 |
| Gregorius, Didi | AFL | 58 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | .276 | .318 | .328 | .646 |
| Hamilton, Billy | AFL | 51 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 2 | .275 | .356 | .392 | .748 |
| Hargreaves, Elliott | ABL | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .143 | .143 | .143 | .286 |
| Lutz, Donald | AFL | 43 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | .395 | .422 | .581 | 1.004 |
| Mattair, Travis | AFL | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | .313 | .421 | .313 | .734 |
| Perez, Felix | VWL | 79 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 3 | .291 | .300 | .354 | .654 |
| Phipps, Denis | DWL | 40 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | .200 | .283 | .350 | .633 |
| Rodriguez, Henry | VWL | 48 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | .313 | .353 | .438 | .790 |
| Rojas, Miguel | VWL | 57 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | .211 | .262 | .228 | .490 |
| Vicioso, Danny | DWL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
_
| PITCHERS | LG | W | L | ERA | SV | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | WHIP | K/BB |
| Crabbe, Tim | AFL | 1 | 1 | 2.81 | 0 | 16.0 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 1.31 | 1.4 |
| De La Rosa, Wilkin | DWL | 0 | 0 | 7.71 | 0 | 2.1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1.29 | INF |
| De Sousa, Jose | VWL | 0 | 0 | 27.00 | 0 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.00 | INF |
| Freeman, Justin | VWL | 1 | 1 | 8.64 | 2 | 8.1 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 2.16 | 2.0 |
| Hayes, Drew | AFL | 2 | 0 | 5.73 | 0 | 11.0 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 1.73 | 1.4 |
| Morillo, JR | VWL | 0 | 0 | 7.71 | 0 | 2.1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3.00 | 0.3 |
| Parra, Jesus | VWL | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 2.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.50 | INF |
| Partch, Curtis | AFL | 0 | 0 | 4.66 | 1 | 9.2 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 1.24 | 2.8 |
| Ravin, Josh | AFL | 0 | 1 | 7.04 | 0 | 7.2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1.17 | 7.0 |
| Romero, Franderlin | VWL | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2.00 | INF |
Hey Doug, assuming Chapman is a starter in ’13, what are the odds that our future closer is in house: Hoover, Marshall or a healthy Massett? Also, what are the odds they make a serious effort to resign Broxton?
The odds are none. Jocketty has said the only way Chapman starts is if they sign a replacement.
I think they make a serious effort to re-sign Broxton.
I would rather have Valaika on the Reds roster than Valdez or Cario or possibly even Rolen.
I totally agree with you on Chapman, the Reds have a team that’s build for the regular season, but they need someone with shutdown stuff like Chapman if they want to have a chance to make a run.
I continue to believe that this team needs improved offense from 5-8 in the order. They seem to be a GAB build team that depends on the homerun. While that can be entertaining, again I don’t think it helps them in big games. Everyone loves Hanigan (as do I), but the problem is come big at bats he’s not a factor. I believe they need an on base percentage guy at the top of the order, with more productive hitters at 6-8.
Unfortunately Dusty falls in love with certain players and there’s no chance in changing his way!
I always thought batting Hanigan 8th was a bit of a waste. He’s an OBP machine with 0 pop. He’s not really going to move many runners in, being a singles hitter and his on-base skills are somewhat wasted batting in front of the automatic out.
I thought this past year he should’ve batted 6th, in front of Cozart and Stubbs who do have some pop to move him, but suck at getting on base.
I think he does have some offensive value, but per usual it’s just completely mismanaged.
Doug, with Arroyo as your 5 in 2013 rotation that could be scary good. Do you see the Reds resigning him after next year. I know we have a lot of youngsters but his consistency and the fact he isn’t a power pitcher make him someone very valuable to a staff even at his age. I think they will let him go but I think we will miss him and all the intangibles he brings to the table. His acquisition along with BP have to rank rignt up there with all time great Reds trades.
I would say that unless someone has a big injury this year, the Reds won’t be re-signing Arroyo.
I agree Doug. He has been a nice pick up for Wily Mo.
Other moves in the minors:
Cincinnati Reds
Released: RHP Dan Jensen, RHP Josh Judy, LHP Chris Joyce, 2B James Ewing, OF Brayan Arias, OF Spencer Dickinson
Josh Judy. damn.
mike d you say dusty falls in love with certain players i agree the only thing wrong with this they are all grandfathers
MikeD, the reds were possibly a injury to Cueto away from competing in the series. I don’t see Valika on this team or any other ML team. The Reds will try to strengthen the top of the order with a OPB guy but I think their major concern on Offense will be making sure LF or 3rd base gives them the output that they got in 2010 and 2012. The numbers indicate that if they get the pitching and run production from that spot, all other things staying the same they walk away with the division.
Here is another thought while Hanigan may not give you the thump offensively that others might. Consider his D as being a positive. In a short series Defense may be just as important. I’ll point out a passed ball and a booted high hopper was all that stood in the way of a trip to the NLCS and maybe a trip to the series. Also where would the Giants have been without some of the fielding gems they made during the post season?
I wouldn’t advocate spending a ton of money on a lead off hitter with Hamilton so close. Money or prospects shouldn’t be wasted on that spot. BP will do until that time.
I’d also point out that the Reds offense was severely hampered in the last month and a half of the season with Joey playing the part of OPB hitter instead of Run producer. A healthy Joey, same great pitching and defense with solid production between Joey and Bruce will produce more than enough offense to get us where we want to go. BP will hit lead off and Stubbs 8th if he isn’t replaced in the line up. If Hamilton gets off well in AAA he can replace BP at lead off and Stubbs in CF.
Valdez makes league minium. Valika would get the same. Valika has never been in the role of sub or a guy who has had to sit and come off the bench in ML’s. Saying he would give you the same production may be a little bit of a stretch. He also doesn’t field SS as well as Valdez. Now if you want to bring up Didi I’m fine but My felling is he needs at bats in AAA worse than we need a back up SS.
Looks like HRod is getting his stroke back……and Didi must’ve gotten the memo about stealing more—2 in the AFL after only 3 all season.
I hope Walt moves agressively on Madsen/Soria/Adams so we can put to rest this debate about Chapman starting, but based on his comments yesterday, it sounds as if their first priority is shoring up the outfield. For that, I’d be using Mike Leake as trade bait. He’d do quite well in a pitcher’s ballpark like Dodger Stadium, and we know they’re shopping for SP. Them, and everyone else that is. It’s gotta be a huge stress relief for the Reds brass knowing that’s not a need.
Sultan, Hamilton is also starting to rebound a bit. I really don’t think there is a debate going on right now. I think they will bring in a closer and Chapman will start the year as a starting pitcher. Can always move him back to the pen if it doesn’t workout. I really have to agree with Doug, closers are easy to find when you consider that Coco ws 37 of 43 in save chances in 2011 and that is what Chapman was last year. Of course there was more drama with Coco but a win is a win or a save is a save. Heck, The Giants won the world title without their closer. The year before the cards won after they switched closers and released theirs.
You are right in that there was more drama with Coco. He usually got the job done, but it generally was a fire he started that he put out. To a lessor degree, Broxton was kind of like that in my opinion.
JimT, It’s kind of funny that you mentioned the defense as it was a passed ball that may have cost the Reds the series against the Giants and it wasn’t Mez. LOL, obviously Hanigan is human and also a great defensive catcher, but no way does the opposing team worry about him hurting you with his bat. Frazer will not be much more than his minor league stats moving forward so thirdbase will not be a position of strength. So unless the Reds bring in a couple of players that have better OBP, they will struggle being consistent with or without Joey. I do hope that Bruce becomes more consistent, but again 3-4-5 isn’t my issue. 6-7-8 are. I would trade Leake and Hanigan for a bat, move Mez into the 7 hole and trust that the offense becomes more consistent.
Peppy, you are quite right! Dusty frustrates the crap out of me.
I am also not so sure that a healthy Cueto would have gotten the Reds to the series. They were far to inconsistent offensively. I still believe that Cueto while very impressive, is better suited to be a 2 in the long run. Looking forward to your thoughts JimT. :)
MikeD,I think the fact that we destroyed the division without Joey for 50 games speaks for itself. If Frazier gives us what he gave us last year with a healty Joey and the same production in LF I think we will be fine. Stubbs moves to 8 and BP leads off. Would I like to have Hamilton at some point batting 1st and BP in the 2 hole sure but because of our finances and the fact Billy is so close I tread water until such time. I hope Chapman finds his way into the rotation and a closer is brought in to replace him. I don’t think they worry about Hanigan offensively but I don’t think they are concerned with Mez either at this point. If I’m needing a home run I would want Mez at bat if I want a guy to put it in play Hanigan. Handling the staff and defensively I want Hanigan. If Mez improves in those areas I see his playing time increasing. Certainly you don’t think the Giants were a offensive juggernaught. They got timely hitting and excellent defense to go along with very good starting staff. They should have been swept by the reds. If Cueto was given two starts against them instead of a 1/3 of a inning they would have been done. Not only the injury but the timing was horrible. Frazier,Hanigan/Mez and Stubbs well be as good as most in NL in the 6-8 hole. If we pitch as good as last year and avoid the injuries well be in contention again this year. The Reds are as good as any team in NL right now.
The Reds have to improve the bench for 2013. Valdez, who made $930,000 in 2012 (i.e. not league minimum) had the lowest OPS of any player in the major leagues with 200 or more plate appearances (.463). He had the 3rd worst WAR of any player in the NL and only finished 3rd instead of 1st because the two ahead of him played more. Cairo had a -1.4 WAR and an OPS of .492. That is half or your bench being non-existent offensively. You really can’t be worse off. Sure, Valdez can play multiple positions, but those can be covered by others. Valaika is not the answer. I would like them to get Keppinger as the infield backup and 3B insurance and then maybe a Mike Fontenot who can also play multiple positions and is a lefty. Both HRod and Didi need more AAA time in my opinion, but would still be an upgrade over Valdez if it came down to it.
Thanks for the correction Kroz. I thought league minium was what we paid for valdez. There can’t be much difference can there? I agree the bench needs to improve. Kepp may cost to much but I agree would love to have him. My point was Vailika isn’t a step up. Fontenot is interesting. He may fit as 1/2.
External evaluation of Billy Hamilton: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/fast-player-needs-time/
Ex Red Grandal suspended 50 games: http://network.yardbarker.com/author/article_external/12149350?widget=true
I see where Placido Polonco is a free agent. He has Dusty/Walt bench player written all over him.
MK,I could live with that.
Doug, the top 7 Reds prospect have some serious up side. Stephenson and Travieso are top shelf starting pitching power arms prospects. Corcino and Cingrani have very good arrms and have performed exceptionally thoughout the system. Didi is ML ready as a fielder and seems to have a very good ceiling as far as hitter. Winkler put up numbers as a youngster very few prospects have ever put up. Hamilton has transformed raw athletic ability into baseball skills and is on the verge of adding a element missing in our ML club. Couple that with the young team controlled talent the reds have on their 25 man roster and it is a GREAT time to be a Reds fan. This team is not a one year wonder and is here for the long haul. If Y-Rod can add a little maturity and develope this team will be scary.
I noticed David Vidal and Juan Silva are playing winter ball in Puerto Rico for Mayaguez Indians. Season starts today.
I haven’t checked out the full rosters for each of the team yet. I am deep into working on the book (lunch break right now) today (my computer problems set me back a few days, so I am trying to really catch up). Thanks for the heads up.
I’ll be following Mayaguez Indians and the other teams also. I’m big fan of David Vidal. My cousin, Jon Huber is on the pitching roster. He was out all last season with shoulder issues after pitching for them in game 1 of champ series last season. Hoping he can get back in his groove.
Anyone else here hoping the Reds sign Youk and move Frazier to LF? Think he’d provide a lot:
-Right handed bat with some pop
-Probably within our price range
-Someone who consistently gets on base
-Hometown guy
-That “veteran leadership” that Walt is always gaga over
I wouldn’t mind seeing him signed in addition to Ludwick or another LF. I think it’d be interesting to use Frazier as a super-utility player. Poor man’s Ben Zobrist. That is, if he has the competency to play SS etc. in the majors.
I think it will be one or the other between Ludwick and Youkillis. Frazier deserves to play full time at either 3B or LF. Either one has a chance to really help us or be similar to Rolen of last year. It is a chance worth taking, but with only one of the two in my opinion.
If Chapman is a starter in 2013, how many innings could he pitch? Wouldn’t the Reds be facing the same situation that the Nationals did this past year with their ace?
Strasburg was coming off Tommy John surgery, so it is a little different. Still, Chapman’s innings would need watched, more like what the WhiteSox did with Chris Sale. One option would be to start him thru July, then trade for another starter at the trade deadline while moving Chapman to the pen for the stretch run.
Chapman should be good with roughly 150 innings. He threw 125 in a season while in Cuba. Adding roughly 30 to that is likely the plan. There obviously needs to be a plan in order to get Chapman to the playoffs though. Skipping him a few times isn’t going to be enough.