Thursday news and notes Doug Gray November 15, 2012 80 Comments The Arizona Fall League regular season comes to an end today. The Reds team, the Peoria Javelinas have a half game lead over Surprise. With a win they will play on Saturday afternoon on MLB Network for the championship. If they lose they will need Surprise to also lose. Really a slow news day, so let’s get some thought processes going here. Who is the one player you would target in a trade (that is reasonably available…. the Angels aren’t trading Mike Trout) and what is the absolute most that you would be willing to give up for that player? Friday I plan on a Season in Review article, so what position player would you like to see? Most votes gets the nod. The Redsfest list of players has been announced, at least the initial round of players. Here are the prospects who will be attending: Tucker Barnhart Billy Hamilton Ryan LaMarre Kyle Lotzkar El’Hajj Muhammad Steve Selsky Robert Stephenson Tony Cingrani Todd Redmond Pedro Villarreal Is anyone planning on showing up? I should be there both days. You can get all the information at the Reds official site. 80 Responses JIM T November 15, 2012 Doug, I’ll be there one of the days. haven’t decided which yet. My player is Upton. I would trade Cozart, Leake, Cingrani and another prosect and hope they don’t ask for Stephenson instead of Cingrani. He fits perfectly on this team and would be a huge bat for the middle of the order. It would also mean we wouldn’t have to resign a aging 34, inconsistent Ludwick to a big contract. 37 year old Hunter just got a 2 year deal for 26 mil. Ludwick is a risk and he won’t be cheap. We also have no impact outfield bats anywhere close to ML ready in our system. Getting that Production from the middle of the order is esssential. If you look at our record in 2010 and 2012 with Gomes and Ludwick providing offense as opposed to 2011 when Gomes went in the tank. 3 years of Upton could bridge the gap to guys like Winkler and hopefully Y-Rod. We also have committed a ton of salary to win the title. To pass on a guy Like Upton who is available when we are in all in mode and certainly within striking distance of our goal is not a wise move. We have the prospects to get it done and this would cement our contender status for the next 3 years at least. Get Upton, bat BP in lead off role and wait on Hamilton. If we pitch and play D with that line up we are scary good. Doug my player profile request is Y-Rod for the obvious reasons. He is a key part of our farm system and he is in a postion of need for our ML club. Getting him developed is huge for this organization. MK November 15, 2012 If the Reds can’t sign a high tier free agent due to finances (per Walt) then I can not imagine they would trade for someone who would fall into that same category. Alan Horn November 15, 2012 I agree. That rules out Hamilton, Bourn and Upton. With Upton, you are out the players you trade plus a lot more money. That’s why if we make a trade, Willingham and Revere/Spann makes a lot of sense. We fill two holes and we aren’t out a ton of money. I worry about why Arizona is willing to trade Upton(attitude issues have been rumored). If true, the Reds don’t need that. Josh November 15, 2012 This is one of the bonuses of having dusty baker as your manager. I think upton would enjoy playing on this team and his attitude problem wouldn’t be an issue JIM T November 15, 2012 MK this would perclude them from signing Ludwick. I know it would bump the payroll but it is worth it. Free agents are bid on. No way we are outbidding big markets for high end free agents. Different animals MK November 15, 2012 Upton’s salary for the next three years is: 2013-$9,750,000, 2014-$14,250,000, 2015-$14,500,000. Ludwick might be close to the $9 million but won’t touch the other two. jim t November 15, 2012 MK if Upton is aquired and Ludwick is not resigned years 2 and 3 of uptons deal will be absorbed my rising attendence and new TV deal. doctor November 15, 2012 My player trade target, given the recent trade news, is Stanton of Marlins. Fits the power #4 spot between Votto Bruce. Probably cost a lot in prospects, as he should. Only issue is anything left for finding a leadoff hitter, may have to go with BP there again. This is the franchise that traded away a triple crown hitter(Miggy Cabrera) in his prime, so not a reach to think they would move a premier hitter again, especially since Stanton is upset with the trade. However, I imagine a lot of teams would jump in on a bidding war for Stanton, Rangers to name one team that seems to have a lot of prospect chips to trade. JIM T November 15, 2012 doctor, I like Stanton but the only problem is he is cheap right now and team controlled. Would be shocked if the Marlins move him. doctor November 15, 2012 i agree Stanton is player type for a team to keep but then I was shocked when Cabrera got traded and again with Reyes moved. Given the Marlins location, you would think they would want to keep some Latin stars on the team to attract that part of the fan base. After the recent trade, everything is an option for this current marlins ownership. JIM T November 15, 2012 doctor, I think the issue for the marlins is who is the cheapest and Stanton falls into that category. that is why he won’t be traded. Greg November 15, 2012 I agree. I wuold give Stubbs, Leake, Hamilton, and Coricio. Then I would sign Victorino for 3 years $24 million. See what it would take to get Mike Adams to close and bring Chapman to rotation with Cingrani as back up for Chapman. Am I carzy? jim t November 15, 2012 Greg, big problem I have is signing Victorino for 3 years.I wouldn’t sign him period let alone for 3 years. rgslone November 15, 2012 What about a package of Josh Willingham and Ben Revere from the Twins. That’s a LF and CF option from a team that is looking to deal (especially for a SS and pitching) and can afford to lose those players if they can fill other needs. Alan Horn November 15, 2012 I like that one and it would fill 2 holes. Plus, it would fit well with the Red’s budget. Stock November 15, 2012 I like this also. Dick November 15, 2012 Yesterdays thread was priceless…Batcrap crazy///Laughably Bonkers??? Gentlemen, I need permission to use both! If you argue balls and strikes with the TRAX machine, are you still thrown out of the game? Maybe a purple light goes on, telling you to beat it. Congratulations AdamL on your engagement. Its always terrific to hear happy news. peppy November 15, 2012 everyone keeps saying we need a left fielder what is wrong with ludwick rgslone November 15, 2012 My understanding is there is a lot of concern that the Reds can’t sign him for a reasonalbe cost and contract period. Alan Horn November 15, 2012 I agree. Ludwick is only attractive if both criteria are met. His age is a concern as well as his Cinderella season last year. Still, he is worth taking a chance on if those 2 things (amount of and length of contract) can be acceptable. Doug Gray November 15, 2012 Until he signs, he isn’t a Red. That would be the biggest reason we need a left fielder. peppy November 15, 2012 are the reds going to carry three catchers Quinn November 16, 2012 No. Navarro is a Cub. Ryan K November 15, 2012 I would go all in on trying to get get Upton if we could. I think the only issue he has had lately is the pressure of trying to be the guy in Arizona. If he came here, there would be less pressure with a lot of other talent in the lineup. He is the perfect fit between Bruce and Votto. But I am pretty confident that they are not going to take a Cozart, Leake, and Cingrani package. That would be nice to just get the conversation started and see what their demands are. I think if you swap out Cozart for DiDi it would get their attention a little bit more. I am a huge DiDi fan and rather have him in Cincy but Upton would be a big addition. I think they would have to build a package around DiDi and Cingrani. I would not be surprised though if the Diamondbacks have really high demands for Upton. I do not want to part with Hamilton or Stephenson. If they can’t do the Upton trade, my next idea would be Mike Olt. It’s being reported that the Braves turned down a swap of Simmonrs for Olt. If the Reds could use DiDi to trade and get Olt I would be very happy. Frazier and Olt would give us LF and 3rd base filled. We could not waste the money on Ludwick and fill the closer role. We move Chapman to the rotation and I think we now become a favorite for the next few years in the NL to reach the World Series. I really like DiDi over Cozart, but he has a lot more trade value. If we are going to swing a big name, it will most likely have to involve DiDi. The Rangers might want more than DiDi for Olt, but I think Olt is worth moving a couple players for. It would be really nice to get one of these players and still have Hamilton and Stephenson as top prospects. I would really like to see Upton but I think Olt might be more realistic for them. I think the Reds wouldn’t mind adding a low cost option that is under team control. Alan Horn November 15, 2012 Olt is one way to go. He has no track record in the majors and is a gamble. Plus, you have no lead off hitter for next season. If we are going to trade a SS, I like the trade with the Twins better because it fills 2 holes and gives us 2 proven ML players. Ryan K November 15, 2012 True and I like the Twins trade as well but then it blocks Hamilton for two years at least. Also what kind of package is that going to require? My guess would be they would want at least 2 of our young pitchers like Cingrani and Corcino. If we are going to trade that many prospects, I rather go all in for Upton. Out bid everyone and maybe have them throw in a guy like Eaton or Parra. Stock November 15, 2012 The Twins would want Didi and a pitcher. Alan Horn November 15, 2012 If Hamilton pans out, you could trade Revere/Spann. If not, you have your CF/lead off hitter. That way you have your lead off hitter for next season and the near future. tim November 15, 2012 If i was Walt i would be talking to the Marlins about Stanton and find out what they would want. Stanton is a beast and is only going to get a lot better! Kris November 15, 2012 I second the proposal above to have Y-Rod be the profiled player. Guy has always been an interesting prospect to me. Stock November 15, 2012 I like the Willingham/Revere trade but another great option would be Asdrubal Cabrera and Chris Perez for Didi/Corcino/Leake/Stubbs. Throw in Lotzkar if necessary. Then with the money saved from not needing Broxton sign Ludwick to a two/three year deal and Melky Cabrera to a one year deal. A Cabrera M Cabrera Votto Ludwick Bruce Phillips Frazier Hanigan This is a great lineup. Cueto/Arroyo/Homer/Latos/Chapman is a great rotation. Perez/Masset/Marshall/Hoover/Arrendondo/LeCure/Simon with Ondrusek in AAA is a great bullpen. Doug Gray November 15, 2012 Alright guys, here is my trade proposal. I go to the Marlins and ask for Mike Stanton. My top offer: Aroldis Chapman, Billy Hamilton and one of Cingrani/Corcino. The real question is, who says no to that deal first? Print the World Series tickets. fromcubawithluv November 15, 2012 Dude, I think you are putting something crazy down to spur conversation….. I guess it worked. That is just crazy talk. Chapman is out of the question if you adding additional legitimate pieces. I would do Chapman and two lesser prospects, but not 2 real ones. Doug Gray November 15, 2012 I think you underestimate just how good Stanton is. He is a 6 win player at age 22. That is incredible. fromcubawithluv November 15, 2012 That is certainly possible :) Jon Ryker November 15, 2012 I would avoid trading Hamilton at all costs….however, Stanton is a great player and dumping Chapman right now may prove to be very smart indeed, as I still question his durability and have no faith in him as a starter……I like the core of this trade idea….. Stock November 15, 2012 I think Chapman and Hamilton would be enough. They don’t want to deal Stanton because they have enough bad press already. But he is clearly unhappy. If you give them Chapman that will be a huge draw for them. Hamilton is also very exciting and could get people to the park. Sign Melky/Bourn and trade for Cabrera and Perez and you have a great chance to dominate for a couple of years. tim November 15, 2012 As much as The Reds upper management loves Chapman and Hamilton I dont think they would trade those two for a young Mickey Mantle! But i would definitely do that deal for Stanton. With Chap and Hamilton in the deal the Marlins might jump at that deal Herbie November 16, 2012 Yeah, I’d do that in a heart beat. Somewhat like Jon I’ve never been keen on Chapman’s chances making it as a starter. One thing I question is if they’d even want Chapman. Seems that they’re sending most everyone that isn’t making league minimum off. Plus the fact that Chapman “only” has three years left under contract probably doesn’t mesh with the Marlins’ plans. Jrod November 16, 2012 I was thinking along the same lines … godfather offer for Stanton. Stanton is on HoF projection with 4 years of control. I believe he would hit 50 HR in our stadium if he stays healthy for a full season. If we could acquire him we would have the best 3-4-5 in baseball for the next 4 years. Without an extension on Chapman, I don’t even know if converting him to a starter is the best idea, because he’s going to need a couple years to really become an ace (if he ever does) and by that time he’ll be ready to hit it big on the FA market (he’s always seemed destined to play for the Yankees to me). I think his highest value to the Reds organization right now is in being the centerpiece to bringing a player of Stanton’s caliber back. It’s fun to dream on the potential of guys like Chapman and Hamilton, but Stanton right now is probably one of the top 5 OFs in the game and hasn’t yet played a game above age 22. He very well could win multiple MVPs. Also, I think we’d have a good chance at signing him to an extension. We could sign him to a 6-7 year deal for his arbitration years and 2-3 FA years. He would get the security of the something along the lines of 7 years 90 million, and would still be hitting the FA market in his late 20s ready to score his mega-mega-mega deal. Josh November 15, 2012 I would go hard after Justin upton, he just seems like a perfect fit in the lineup and allows Frazier to take over 3rd base and he costs about as much as it seems ludwick wants. Arizona wants a ss so it would have to start with Didi or cozart. I would give them whichever one they wanted more, the other is your starting ss They would probably want a young pitcher also, so I’d be willing to offer one of leake, cingrani, and corcino And they would probably want a young outfielder so I’d throw in Lamarre and maybe ondrusek or Arredondo to sweeten the deal That should be able to get it done, if not try and get headley and move Frazier to lf Then sign Madson, and maybe broxton too if he signs for cheap moving chapman to the rotation Then I would sign Grady Sizemore to a cheap one year deal or a minor league deal with an invite and see if he’s healthy and platoon him with Stubbs Dustys lineup would look like this 1. Sizemore/Phillips 2. Phillips/ cozart/ Didi 3. Votto 4.upton 5. Bruce 6. Frazier 7. Cozart/Didi/Stubbs 8. Hanigan/ mes 9. Pitcher Pretty. Solid fromcubawithluv November 15, 2012 http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121115&content_id=40295614&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin Did you all see this? It would be very cool to have both of these guys for the duration of their careers. 2 potential future HOFers playing together for 15 years would be great for the franchise, the city, and great for my growing kids to see. Hope it happens on a team friendly contract and then we get a 50 mil a year tv deal. :) Krozley November 15, 2012 I too would love it if Bruce spends his entire career with the Reds, but there is no need to extend him now. I would wait at least until after the 2014 season. fromcubawithluv November 15, 2012 the longer you wait the more expensive it will be. Norwood Nate November 15, 2012 Lock him up! boiler November 15, 2012 Walt say NO. In a couple of years when Bruce starts to earns the money he is being paid, then alright but not now. We will be paying high end money for either a HOT or COLD player and his cold is terrible. Doug Gray November 15, 2012 Bruce is already earning his money. Ryan K November 15, 2012 Could not agree more. Silver slugger and does not get the respect deserved for great defense. Jay Bruce is worth every penny he is making right now. Doug Gray November 15, 2012 To be fair, he didn’t come close to deserving that silver slugger award. Norwood Nate November 15, 2012 There are a couple options with teams reportedly looking to trade some pieces. First, the Cleveland Indians. I would see what it would take to get a Choo and Perez deal done. Choo could lead off and play left and Perez could close. That solves two major problems. Choo made 4.9 last year and is going into his 3rd and final arbitration year. So, Choo will be relatively affordable for his production and only on the Reds books for a year (unless they can work out an extension). This does not block any of our young players coming up (Hamilton, LaMarre) but gives us a great option for competing next year. Since this is only addressing a short term need I would not want to give up a ton in prospects. I would also like to pursue the Twins deal mentioned already. A Willingham/Revere combo would be great. I would be willing to give up more for that deal as the players we’re getting back would be here longer and likely more valuable. I’d be willing to part with any players in the organization except Stephenson, Hamilton, Votto, Bruce, Phillips, and our top 4 starters. I would only want to part with one of the SS’s. I would only want to part with one of Corcino/Cingrani because I feel one will need to step into Arroyo’s spot after next year. I would be hard pressed to deal Chapman unless it was absolutely the right deal. I don’t believe either of the two above would be that deal. Doug Gray November 15, 2012 I have heard that the Reds have had discussions about Choo. Josh November 15, 2012 I love choo! :) Jeff November 15, 2012 Bless you. tim November 15, 2012 But isnt Choo a Boras client?? And this is his last year on his contract? He will only be a rent a player if we trade for him. sultan of swaff November 15, 2012 Choo has bad splits. He’s not all that. DaveCT November 15, 2012 First choice for season in review is YRod, 2nd choice Waldrop. Trade candidate is Upton. MikeD November 15, 2012 I would go along with Doug’s trade scenerio without a thought! Make the trade, give Stanton and Bruce contract extensions, get rid of Dusty and the Reds play for the world series multiple times over the next 10 years! Cbus November 15, 2012 I’m on-board for Stanton and I’d give up a ton. He’s Miguel Cabrera part2. As a backup backup plan if we can’t make a trade or sign Ludwick, I always thought JD Martinez would be a good fit in Cincy. Young RH power hitting outfielder with upside and seems like a buy low candidate that wouldn’t cost to much in money or trade pieces. At worst you get a good platoon partner. Doug Gray November 15, 2012 Nah, he isn’t quite that good of a hitter. More power though. Stronger defender too. sultan of swaff November 15, 2012 First option: (In part to deny the Cardinals) Trade Cozart, Leake, and Lotzkar to Indians for Cabrera. Shift Cabrera to 3B and move SuperTodd to LF, play Didi as SS. Doing so would be less expensive than signing a FA LF or 3B, and we’d be dealing from a position of strength. Second option: Sign Melky. As for closer, sign Madsen/Soria/Adams. Ryan K November 15, 2012 I would also trade Chapman/Hamilton/Cingrani for Stanton. It would give Marlins fans something to go watch. The hardest thrower and the fastest base runner and both would be starters now on that triple A roster. MK November 15, 2012 Don’t get the Melky love. He was average to below before PEDs. Can probably expect that after PEDs. Sizemore also makes no sense. No proof but his body has certainly broken down since they started testing for such things. Can’t imagine Reds would be interested in either as they are not in a financial position to gamble. They need to go for the sure thing even if that means the upside might end up being less. Norwood Nate November 15, 2012 I agree. The only reclamation project I would be interested in would be Jason Bay. Alan Horn November 15, 2012 On the same page MK. -MBP November 15, 2012 Any thoughts on Marquez Smith? The Reds just signed him to a minor league deal. He has decent offensive numbers, and scouts like his glove. FanGraphs had him as one of the top MiLB free agents available this year. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/daily-notes-three-notable-minor-league-fas-of-note/ Krozley November 15, 2012 Navarro is a Cub. Good luck to him. I saw that the Reds also signed Mike Hessman to a minor league deal. Career home run tally of 384 (all but 14 in the minors). Crash Davis numbers. I believe he is older than everyone on the 40 man roster except Arroyo. Jake November 16, 2012 He’ll be fun to watch in Louisville this year. Imagine he and Corky on the same roster! jim t November 15, 2012 Some tidbits from Mlb rumors courtesy of John Fay. Reds aren’t shopping Didi or Cozart. Reds kicked the tires on Tori Hunter and deemed him to expensive. Still negotiating with Ludwick. They are negotiating with Broxton and Madson/Soria with Broxon the only one healthy enough to pitch opening day. Not interested in extending Bruce at this time. He is team controlled for 5 more years. Bourn too expensive and it looks like Pagan is as well. Alan Horn November 15, 2012 Can’t disagree with most of that Jim. Maybe Madson/Soria. We need more of a sure thing closer next season. My trade comments were based on Walt supposedly saying he was going to trade a SS. If we were going to do that, I would have preferred Willingham/Revere. My original sentiments were to hold onto both for a while to get a better read on who to keep. Doug Gray November 15, 2012 Mike Trout didn’t win the MVP. This is almost as bad as Derek Jeter having multiple gold gloves or Rafael Palmeiro having one from a year where he played 26 games defensively. Doug Gray November 15, 2012 Raul Ibanez hit .240/.308/.457 in 425 PA’s this year. Someone gave him a 10th place vote. That is worse than the guy who gave Trout a 3rd place vote. Not by much, but worse. jim t November 15, 2012 Doug, spoken like a true saber. lol Doug Gray November 15, 2012 I feel like a sabertooth tiger tonight. I want to just thrash things. jim t November 16, 2012 Very interesting conversation about Trout vs Miguel on ESPN show today. They were discussing how sabers all perferred Trout while old school baseball people perferred Miguel. Apparently players and people who look at the back of baseball cards think the triple crown winner was the deserving winner. I actually see merit in both arguments. Probably why I enjoy your site. Being a old school guy I can see the game changing but I’m sure it isn’t happening as fast as some would like. Terry M November 15, 2012 Navarro signs with Cubs..1 yr at 1.75 mill. Alan Horn November 15, 2012 Hate to see him go,but Mesoraco needs to play. Hopefully, Mesoroco will make a move. wanderinredsfan November 16, 2012 I want David DeJesus, first and foremost. Fits perfectly, positionally and financially, for this team over the next couple of seasons. Allows the Reds to have someone on base for Votto, ease Hamilton into CF and the lead-off position, and provides a platoon split for Stubbs and Heisey. Just a perfect fit. I’d offer Corcino, LaMarre, and Ondrusek. I bet they bite. As for a season review; I’m interested in Selsky’s season. I’d like to know if folks believe his season was a mirage, or a real indicator of prospect legitimacy. Doug Gray November 16, 2012 Selsky was the last one that I did. Check the sidebar for the link to the series and you can check it out. Herbie November 16, 2012 If the Padres would be willing to part with Chase Headley; I’d love to have him. In return I would trade the Louisville Bats; just take all of ’em. I have as much of a man crush on Justin Upton as most people around here, but I think Chase would fill all the same needs yet probably bring a little more value. He’s not as young, but I doubt we’d be able to extend Upton if we did get him. They’re both similarly productive with the bat, but I think Headley probably fields his position a little better; which would also allow Frazier to move to left which would be another defensive boon. *hit wrong reply button. bleh. jim t November 16, 2012 Herbie I think Headley would be a good alternative to Upton but just like Stanton I don’t think their perspective teams would go for it. Padres extended him and Stanton is young and cheap.