The centerfield position is one of need for the Reds, who got a .226./.282/.339 line from the position at the big league level this past season. While the position has been filled with quality defense, that sort of offense will not cut it at the Major League level.
The clear cut top prospect at the position is a guy who technically has yet to play an official game at the position, Billy Hamilton. After spending the first 4 years as a pro playing shortstop and second base the Reds sent him to the Arizona Fall League after the 2012 season to learn to play center. His offensive potential is interesting, if not often debated. For a player who can’t hit the ball over the fence, he is quite prone to the strikeout. At the same time he also draws a lot of walks. There is some debate as to how both of those will play out at the Major League level, but the question is more about will he be an average offensive player or an above-average one if the walk rate can come close to carrying over from what he showed in 2012. Then of course is the speed aspect of the game, where he is on an entirely different playing field than just about anyone in baseball. Defensive reports from Arizona suggest that he will still need a little bit of time to get better acquainted with the position, but that his range should be above-average and he shouldn’t have any issues once he is more comfortable out there. While shortstop is a more rare position, the drop off in value to center is minimal and Hamilton still has the upside to compete for MVP awards if he can reach his ultimate ceiling.
After Hamilton there is a decent drop down to the next guy, but to be fair, Hamilton is arguably the top centerfield prospect in all of baseball at this point. While Yorman Rodriguez didn’t play center much in 2012, he still shows the tools to play there with solid speed and a strong arm. Offensively he began the year with the worst slump of his career, hitting just .156 in 90 at bats for Bakersfield before being sent to extended spring training. He eventually returned to full season ball, but was with Dayton for the rest of the year where he flashed some offensive tools, but didn’t really produce numbers to match the set of tools as he hit .271/.307/.430 and struggling with plate discipline once again. Rodriguez has the highest ceiling of anyone in the Reds system, but so far in his career he has struggled to do more than show flashes of that potential. His plate discipline is a major hurdle that he will need to get over in order to become anything close to what he could be.
Ryan LaMarre played center for the Blue Wahoos all season and while he didn’t have any outstanding stats, he was solid across the board as he hit.263/.356/.353 with 30 steals despite playing the season with plantars faciitis. LaMarre shows off above-average range in center and has a strong and accurate arm as well. While he doesn’t have quite the upside that Hamilton does, he could be an above-average centerfielder if he can reach his ceiling and show a little bit more power.
Bryson Smith played mostly center while in Bakersfield, but headed to the corners in favor of LaMarre when he was promoted to Pensacola. Smith had a strong offensive season as he hit .310/.358/.429 between Bakersfield and Pensacola with 16 walks and 56 strikeouts in 404 plate appearances. The lack of walks may hold back his offensive game some, but he has a short swing that is tailored for contact and so far it has led to a career .322 average in the minor leagues. An above-average runner, Smith is an average defender in center and has a bat that could get the job done for the position.
Much like Smith, Jonathan Reynoso was a high contact, low walk and low power hitter in 2012 as he hit .311/.328/.411 for the Arizona League Reds. However, the 19-year-old has some power potential in his bat that Smith doesn’t. He also swiped a league leading 30 steals as he showed off some good speed. He is still quite young and will need plenty of time to develop, but the early returns both numbers wise and on the scouting side are promising.
After those guys there are still several intriguing players, starting out with Theo Bowe, who could challenge Billy Hamilton as the fastest player in baseball. After starting off very slow in Dayton he was called up to Bakersfield where he hit .314/.391/.383. For the season he also swiped 70 bags. Bowe has above-average range in center and can really cover ground. He has solid plate discipline, but may be more of a 4th outfielder than a starter. Beau Amaral was the Reds 7th rounder this past year and he had a solid debut with Billing, hitting .295/.355/.376 with 20 steals in just 57 games. He is a solid defender who relies more on outstanding routes and quick jumps than pure speed. His arm is average at best and may profile more as a 4th outfielder.
Overall Thoughts
This is arguably the Reds strongest position with multiple players who could be quality starting players and several guys who could have a chance to be average ones. It boasts the systems top prospect and four of the Top 25. There is depth, star potential, safety and even more depth at the position. Overall I would say that centerfield is a Grade A- for the Reds, a very big position of strength with multiple options throughout the system.
For other State of the Farm posts, check out the series here.
If they give him the opportunity in ST, he will win the starting CF job, mark it down.
I can’t wait for Billy Hamilton to get his chance(whenever that it). If he can produce at the ML level, he is exactly the type player the Reds need.
Doug, off topic but could we be the mystery team for Upton?
Jim, MLBtraderumors.com mentioned that yesterday. I hope not. I expressed my reasons at the end of the weekend thread.
Alan, You and I will have to agree to disagree. i think upton is a perfect fit for this team.
I think Ludwick can do the same and be much cheaper. If the Reds are going to spend the big dollars, I would want it to be for a better return than Upton.
Upton makes so much more sense than a trade. He is definitely an upgrade. I think his numbers would just improve with a move to NL and GABP.
Ludwick can’t play center, so that in itself makes him instead of Upton an unrealistic comparison.
Alan, spending big dollars on a guy who is at the age of Ludwick who has a history of being up and down with his production is not a good investment. I t will take more than a one year deal to get him signed. Give me Upton and will walk away with the division again. we will also be contenders for a few years to come.
Upton wants 5 years-$75 million. The last four years his BA is: .246, .243, .237, .241; OBP is: .298, .331, .322, .313; Ks: 169, 161, 164, 152.
That player is not the player the Reds can afford to pay $15 million a year to. Other than 2012 he and Stubbs numbers have been pretty comparable and they weren’t $13 million different last year.
I agree that you can’t go out and pay him that kind of money. But simply because he is asking doesn’t mean he is getting. But even if you do pay him that kind of money, he is an upgrade. Is he an upgrade worth that change? No, he isn’t. But I don’t think anyone will pay him that much.
I don’t see where Upton, given his production, is remotely worth what they’d have to pay him, given their limited needs…they can’t afford and don’t need another great player, let alone a guy who is merely paid like a great player…..the fix they need is in the front of the order…..Upton would be a mistake on the level of Griffey Junior….
Jon your always concerned with the budget. If memory serves me you were against resigning Votto. If Upton would give us a chance to compete longterm it may be that attendence,Tv revenue and Merchandise sales may make it a good investment.The issue wirth Griffey was injuries and ownership. If Castellini would have been here he may have gooten some pitching to go with the hitting.As it turned out injuries and lack of pitching made Griffey trade a bad move.
Doug, which of the CF prospects have the tools to slide to a corner spot if needed. Y-rod I think but do any others have the power to move there?
Yorman is probably about it, at least in an ideal sense. But I think you could see a guy or two slide to left and with the combo of defense and ability on the bases perhaps be an average or slightly above-average player over there if things go right. I mean take Bryson Smith for example…. if he can go out and hit .290/.330/.400 with plus range in left field, that is going to be pretty valuable even if that isn’t the kind of bat you normally expect from left field.
Saw this on Lance’s blog.
ESPN
Cincinnati Reds trade CF Billy Hamilton, C Devin Mesoraco, RHP Mike Leake, RHP Sam LeCure and RHP Daniel Corcino to the Minnesota Twins for CF Denard Span, LF Josh Willingham, IF Jamey Carroll and IF Daniel Santana.
***
Read more: http://www.espn1530.com/pages/lancesBlog.html#ixzz2DKwFqwN2
ESPN is saying this is one of 5 trades that need to be made.
I saw this on ESPN too. Just one guys opinion of some “blockbuster trades that could be made”.
I, like a lot of others, think this is just nuts from a Reds perspective. Giving up way too much of the future for a minimal short term fix.
heard about that trade…..also heard several national experts say that Reds would be crazy to make that trade. I tend to agree…I think only way Reds include Hamilton and Mesoraco together in trade is deal is so great that it is almost unbelievable.
I agree. We should have just signed Willingham as a FA last off season. It is amazing to me after declining to do so then, some want to trade the whole farm for Willingham and Span now. Of course, they aren’t Reds fans.
Must have been made by the Minneapolis ESPN affiliate.
If traded my pick to replace Leake would be LeCure or Corcino, and there is no one to replace Mesoraco.
Yuk. One of five trades that needs to be made if you are a Twins fan. If the Reds give up Hamilton, Mesoraco, and Corcino in a deal all together then I better be hearing about Trout or Harper coming back from the other side. Ok, at least someone, or multiple someones, of nearly that potential.
I am not trading Hamilton and Mesoraco in the same package and not getting a legitimate star player back. I guess you could argue Willingham is close to that, but he is also going to be 34 in 2013.
Doug you said that Hamilton should have “above average range” for a defensive CF. Will his lack of instincts for the position (i.e. not playing there until his 20s) mean he doesn’t get good breaks on balls and takes less than optimal routes? Or do you think with a year plus worth of experience you could see his range becoming “elite” (btw, does Stubbs have “elite” range as a CF (and if not, which CFs have “elite” range))?
I think instincts are instincts whatever position they play so I don’t think that will be an issue. That same first step you take in center when the hitter makes contact is the same way you would lean at shortstop.
I did notice the couple of times I saw him in Arizona that he does need work on his routes to the ball. This can come from taking a lot of fly balls during batting practice and of course playing.
I’m still not sure he has the arm for center. At short one of his problems was getting his fingers on top of and behind the ball, this is even more essential in the outfield (so you don’t get the big hook on the throw). I saw the same thing in center this fall. I’ve always thought he would end up in left.
Right now, he doesn’t always get the best jump or always take the best route, but he can make up for it most of the time because of his pure speed. In time he may become a plus range guy, it just depends on how well he adjusts his breaks and routes. Stubbs is a plus range guy.
Doug sorry off topic, why was Krebs on the restricted list last year
I don’t have a clue, but my guess is that he retired, but the Reds maintain his rights still.
Doug was he hurt
Are Reds better w/Chapman as starter and Broxton as closer or w/o Broxton and Chapman closing?
I don’t know, but I am glad they are going to actually give Chapman a chance to start. Long overdue.