Today I wanted to take a look at some of the prospect rankings from Baseball America. They have done the individual league Top 20 prospects, so that is what I used as a baseline for the data. I weighed each spot, 1-20 and at different values for each level so that the #1 prospect in a given league is worth more than the #1 prospect in the league below it and so on. It isn’t a perfect formula and part two of the series using John Sickels rankings (once he makes it through all 30 teams) are generally more accurate because he ranks the players on a very comparable grading scale, but that may be another 6 weeks. Here are the overall rankings:
| Rank | Team | Prospects | Points |
| 1 | Rangers | 14 | 306.5 |
| 2 | Mariners | 14 | 302.5 |
| 3 | Diamondbacks | 10 | 301 |
| 4 | Pirates | 13 | 297 |
| 5 | Rays | 12 | 291 |
| 6 | Cardinals | 14 | 279 |
| 7 | Royals | 12 | 251.5 |
| 8 | Red Sox | 12 | 247 |
| 9 | Rockies | 11 | 239.5 |
| 10 | Reds | 11 | 231 |
| 11 | Blue Jays | 11 | 228.5 |
| 12 | Padres | 13 | 216.5 |
| 13 | Astros | 10 | 206.5 |
| 14 | Mets | 11 | 204 |
| 15 | Braves | 10 | 200 |
| 16 | Twins | 7 | 199 |
| 17 | Cubs | 10 | 188.5 |
| 18 | Phillies | 9 | 185 |
| 19 | Tigers | 9 | 179 |
| 20 | Athletics | 8 | 152 |
| 21 | Dodgers | 6 | 148.5 |
| 22 | Angels | 6 | 126 |
| 23 | Marlins | 6 | 124 |
| 24 | Yankees | 5 | 114 |
| 25 | White Sox | 6 | 111 |
| 26 | Indians | 6 | 105.5 |
| 27 | Nationals | 5 | 98 |
| 28 | Giants | 5 | 96 |
| 29 | Orioles | 3 | 96 |
| 30 | Brewers | 3 | 46 |
The Reds rank 10th overall by this system and find themselves third in the division behind the Pirates and the Cardinals, but well ahead of the Cubs and the hapless Brewers.
I think that when John Sickels finishes up all of his grades, assuming there are no big trades, that the Reds will be in that 7-10 range in his rankings as well. As noted though, it could be quite a while before we get a chance to check out those rankings.
Would you be willing to trade Homer Bailey to the Royals straight up for Wil Myers?
I’d trade Chapman before Bailey. I don’t think Chapman ever sticks as a starter and that his trade value willnever be higher than it is right now.
I think I agree with Duke but I’m not sure the Royals make that move for either guy.
I still think we should start an offer of Chapman and Hamilton to Florida for Stanton.
I agree with Duke in that the moving of Chapman to starter could backfire on us big time. That said, we have to give it a try. We
can always move him back to closer. I agree that his trade value would be diminished at that point. Still, he has shown he is one of the dominant closers in the game.
I think it’s hard to give up an established Major League player for a guy who has not done anything in the big leagues yet. Especially when you are swapping straight up with nothing else involved. For all we know Will Meyers could be the next Brandon Larson.
I agree. Any prospect’s results can stop at any level and the only way to know for sure is to try them at that particular level. I didn’t agree with the trade proposal, but the possibility that Chapman as a starter could fail.
yea sorry I understood what you were saying and I completely agree. I guess that was more a reply to the trade proposal itself. That being said if Will Meyers can continue to produce at the big league level that would work out great. It would just be a big risk for a team trying to win the series. I would like them to find a young controlled contract though for either 3rd base or left field.
Homer has finally matured and looks like he will be the top of the rotation pitcher we have been waiting on. Wouldn’t trade a top of the rotation guy for a prospect. Look what the Reds needed to give up to get Latos.
With Latos, Cueto and Bailey, the Reds have what not many teams have, three top of the rotation guys.
I would expect Chapman will have some of the same growing pains as a starter that Bailey had so I hope expectations aren’t too unreasonable.
No. I really think people underestimate just how valuable Homer Bailey was last year. If you took The top 15 pitchers in the NL last year, Homer Bailey was one of them. He may not be an ACE, but he is a #1 pitcher in the NL.
The Reds lost six games last year in which Bailey had them ahead but relievers failed to ‘hold’ the lead. On the flip side, he was ‘saved’ twice in games in which he was behind when he was pulled and the Reds rallied to win. Bailey’s 21 ‘quality starts’ was second highest on the staff, trailing only Cueto (23) and the same number as other notables such as Matt Cain, Cliff Lee and Wandy Rodriquez. Leake received .5 more runs per game than Bailey. I remember the Giants catcher said that Bailey’s ‘stuff’ was the best his team had seen ALL season following the playoff game.
Doug, I like the fact we have a top ten farm system but looking at the big league club, a big Well done should go to our entire player developement department. Our 25 man roster has 3/5′s of last years starting rotation is home grown and 5 of the 8 fielders all came up through our system. That also isn’t counting Frazier. Throw in Chapman, LeCure, Ondrusek from the pen. Factor in two subs in Heisey and Mesoraco. That Is quite impressive considering they walked away with the Central. PDD is absolutely getting it done.
Agree Jim. It is light years away from Marge’s days of leading the Reds.
The Royals want Lester or Shields for Myers. I think we can top that offer and still keep the team intact. Bailey and Leake would be my offer. It keep the Royals within their budget, fills out their rotation for more years than either of those guys would, and makes them contenders immediately. Myers is a stud, and with Hamilton, would solidify our outfield for the next 6 years. Corcino and Cingrani maintain depth.
If you are giving up both of those guys then the Royals need to throw in their closer or their 3rd baseman(cant spell name).
My personal opinion but I much rather have Bailey over Shields at this point in their career’s. I think Bailey’s career is just getting starting going into what hopefully should be his best years.
Not to mention the difference in cost.
Doug, how much does one or two blue chip prospects weigh on a team’s rankings? Or rather, is age/level/top 100 status taken into account?
In this system, it is a very crude effort. Didi Gregorius wound up being worth the same as Robert Stephenson because of how far up the ladder he was and his high ranking in the AAA rankings. Obviously we know that isn’t true, they don’t have the same value. That is why I prefer the ranking system I use for Sickels prospects, because they can be weighed evenly.
I have to say I agree with Doug about Bailey he was such a valuable part of the reds success. I would like to make a point that has been made many times about Chapman. Guys I was born and raised in NYC and while I am a huge reds fan for many many years, I love the NY Yankees. The turning point of the current Yankee success was hands down Mariano Rivera. Guys why are the Reds tinkering with the one of the most impressive closers in the MLB. I understand that he could be a no 1 or no 2 starter in the Majors. He was so dominating as a closer and has that X factor that is very very hard to find in that position. Lets not re invent the wheel here . Keep him in the Pen , make him the highest paid closer in the game after several years of success and not worry about that position for the next 5 years
I believe Derek Jeter and Andy Petite would have a little something to do with that, not to mention Bernie Williams, Paul O’Neil, David Cone etc.
While the Reds system is strong, it should be pointed out that the Cards are better. They match the Reds pitching talent: Stephenson/Shelby Miller
Corcino,Cingrani,Travieso,Lotzkar/Martinez,Jenkins,Wacha,Rosenthal.
Plus, they have two sure-bet hitting prospects in Tavares and Wong at positions of need. Adams is a good hitter, but he is blocked.
The Reds lack any top flight hitters. There are alot of “ifs” involved with each player. I love Billy Hamilton as much as anybody, but he’s no sure thing at the plate.
I point this out to remind us that the Reds are the underdogs. The Cards have been snakebitten by injury the last two years. They are the more talented team, and have more elite talent on the way.
Buying high through free agency (BJ Upton) or trade (Willingham/Spann) are not the answers. The Reds need patience on Hamilton and Mesoraco, and hope Chapman can succeed in the rotation. Get a buy low guy for leftfield and hope it pans out. (Justin Upton has too many injury concerns for the price required to get him)
I mostly agree. Willingham would only be buying high in terms of players. His contract is quite reasonable(I think I saw around 6 million per year). If those players are blocked(one of the shortstops and Leake for instance), then I make the deal even if I have to throw in someone else such as Stubbs. I would be hesitant to include Cingrani or Corcino. I might add, that my preferable solution is Ludwick, Broxton and keep Didi and all the young talent(for now at least).
Alan, I agree that Willingham has a good contract. But he will cost a lot of talent in prospects. Giving from redundant resources is okay (Latos). My problem is more with the addition of Spann/Revere. These are young cost controlled players that would mean more talent needs to be given up. Then names like Hamilton, Stephenson, or Corcino needs to be added. Don’t give up the difference makers in the system.
I agree on the prospects. I think the best course of action may be Ludwick, Broxton and building a bench. Broxton won’t be cheap, but if we are moving Chapman, we need to know we have a closer(Although I think Hoover could do the job, he isn’t proven.
A pennant contender isn’t the place to see unless we have a injury). Just think, we could have signed Willingham as a FA last year for 6 million a year. Hindsight is 20/20.
The Cardinals have a better system, that I don’t doubt. Oscar Taveras scares me. A lot. More than a lot. Wong not so much. But Major League wise, I will take our team every day of the week. We have the best player between the two teams and it isn’t close. We have better pitching right now and it isn’t really close. Our guys are generally younger than theirs.
Would Hamiliton, Lotzkar and Cingrini be enough to get Will Meyers?
I don’t know. If I were the Royals I don’t think I would pull the trigger on that deal. They are asking around for starters with #1/2 potential who are established Major Leaguers. While that comes with salary, it also comes with sureness. With a group of prospects, there is still plenty of unknown and all three of those guys still have decent risk involved with them.
Herbie yes you are correct and we can mention a bunch of other players but trust me in NY if you did not beat the yanks by the 8th inning , you were done. To have a guy that is a lock 99% of the time is a huge plus
Except he didn’t do that. When Rivera got hurt last season and began talking about retiring, I believe it was Rob Neyer, noted that despite being the best closer ever, he only saved games at a rate about 3% higher than the Pittsburgh Pirates closers did in the same time frame of his career. We are talking about the difference between 1-2 games per season between the best dude to ever play the position and one of the worst franchises in that time frame. Most games are over after 8 innings by sheer odds. Most games aren’t 1 run games heading into the 9th. Most “closers” have an ERA under 4.50, meaning they aren’t even going to give up 1 run every other game they pitch. Mo was the best ever, but he isn’t why the Yankees turned things around.