Wednesday All Questions Answered Doug Gray November 28, 2012 69 Comments Things are more of the same here on Wednesday. The rules are the same as always: Ask before midnight. Each user gets 3 questions. Avoid questions that will require me to look up an answer somewhere. Avoid questions that will require more than a paragraph to answer. Simple enough. Let’s get to it. 69 Responses Jeff November 28, 2012 1. With Chappy now in the rotation, do they shut him down in Aug/Sept or not start him until May/June? 2. Would you extend Bruce like he wants? 3. When should we expect extentions for Latos and Bailey? Cueto to expensive? Doug Gray November 28, 2012 1. I think they will start him at the beginning of the year, but will have a plan in place in order to allow him to pitch in the playoffs. Whether that is skipping a start every three times through the rotation through July (and allowing say Mike Leake to make those starts and keep him as the long man in the bullpen for the other part of those 2 weeks) or limiting him to 5 innings a start through July… there will be some sort of plan, but I don’t see it being one where he doesn’t join the rotation until June. 2. Absolutely. New TV money will be around by the time any of that deal comes in, money signed today looks good, but it won’t be as large in 7-10 years as it is now. 3. I would already be working on deals with the first two. Try to buy out at least 2 years of FA. Cueto I am less sure about. First because of money and second because of his size. The Duke November 28, 2012 1) Would you do a Chapman for Wil Myers trade? 2) Do you have a rough estimate on how the various winter leagues rank in difficulty? 3) Who do you expect more from in 2013: Drew Cisco or Jon Moscot? Both start in Dayton? Stock November 28, 2012 I like the Chapman for Wil Myers question. Jimmer November 28, 2012 How about Chapman for Giancarlo Stanton? boiler November 28, 2012 YES The Duke November 28, 2012 Not nearly enough Jimmer November 28, 2012 Every 5 days he would fill their stadium. Stanton won’t do that. Chapman would be worth more to Miami then any other team. Doug Gray November 28, 2012 Doesn’t matter. There is no way they would take Chapman alone for Stanton. None. If you toss in Billy Hamilton and Daniel Corcino, they might accept then. I have heard some of the rumored asking prices for Stanton from some scouts…. they are insanely high. Rightfully so. JIM T November 28, 2012 Stock, no way I trade Chapman for Will Myers. If Chapman becomes a legit top of the order Starter our rotation can be the best in the game. Being able to run out four qualitity starters in a playoff series is HUGE. What I see happening is the reds will bring back Ludwick with a 2 year deal and a option for a 3rd, they will look to find a short term lead off htter until or if Hamilton is ready. I look for leake stubbs and potentially a minor leaguer or two to be made available to make that happen weigarp November 28, 2012 Never in a million years would I trade Chapman for Myers. Check out Myers stats for Double A in 2011. Pretty pedestrian, if you ask me. Chapman MAY turn out to be a top of the rotation guy. Myers MAY turn out to be a good MLB player. We Reds fans need to value more what we already have. boiler November 28, 2012 Maybe for Myers, I am unsure on Chapman as a starter MK November 28, 2012 Guess I can not figure why the interest in trading an All Star big league pitcher (who throws 100 MPH) for an outfield prospect who has a partial season in AAA. Did anyone notice the value, on the trade market, Mat Latos had last winter? Sometimes we over value our Reds talent but sometimes we under value them as well. The Duke November 28, 2012 In 2012 Chapman converted 38 of 43 saves. In 2011 Cordero converted 37 of 43. I don’t think Chapman sticks as a starter and I would absolutely trade a closer for a solid shot at a RH, power hitting, + hit tool, above average defense, cheap, 6 year controlled corner outfielder. MK November 28, 2012 Duke don’t disagree if Myers was a proven commodity. At this point last year we thought Alonso had that same kind of bat (albeit left-handed). Do we have the same feeling today? Myers has great minor league credentials and that is what they are minor league. Stock November 28, 2012 No comparison to Myers and Alonso. Myers hit 37 home runs last year. That is more than Alonso hit in his 4 year minor league career. Myers can play defense. Alonso can’t. Alonso was highly over rated on this site. He is nothing more than James Loney without the great defense. Just not enough power to justify his glove at 1B. Obviously, I was alone in this thought last year and have few who agree with me now. KyWilson1 November 28, 2012 Alonso finished like 5th in the ROY voting, and will be a .280+ hitter with 25hr power that gets on base all day. He was not overrated. I would not trade Chapman for Meyers straight up, Stanton for Chapman straight up yes i would. Stock November 28, 2012 Yonder finished tied for 6th (with 1 point) with Matt Carpenter (who played only 114 games and Jordan Pacheco who played 132 games). I just don’t see Alonso going from 9 HR to 25 HR. His OPS last year was less than .750. Alonso had 48 extra base hits which is what Loney averaged his first 4 years in the majors. I’m just saying Myers is a far better prospect than Alonso. KyWilson1 November 29, 2012 He also plays in a ballpark that half of the people on hear couldnt hit their driver out of. His power is legit 20-25 a year power. Alan Horn November 28, 2012 I have always agreed with you Stock. Jon Ryker November 28, 2012 I agree with Duke. Trade Chapman now before something bad happens….like he throws 95 with an ok slider and not changeup and tries to get outs for 7 innings……and tops out at 130 innings….let somebody else take that chance….was a fabulous closer, and I think a lot better than Broxton….but, you’ve signed Broxton, so trade Chapman now…. Doug Gray November 28, 2012 1. Not a chance. 2. Dominican League is the toughest, though the varying levels of play even within one game is huge. You could have a A+ level pitcher facing you one inning and then an MLB pitcher the next. Venezuelan League is probably next for the same reason. Those two have Major Leaguers. I would probably say the AFL and PWL are close. The AFL ballparks play into things though. 3. Cisco in Dayton. Moscot in Bakersfield. But to be honest, I haven’t gone through and set up the new depth charts yet, so that is subject to change (at least for Moscot). I like Moscot a little more. I think his stuff is a tad better overall. Stock November 28, 2012 I have read the Reds are nearing their 2013 budget without any FA signings. I keep reading the Reds are kicking the tires on Bourn, BJ Upton, Ludwick, … and have signed Broxton I have also read that the Reds next TV contract will be as large as the big boys. I can’t help but get the feeling the Reds are hoping to sign several FA by back loading their contracts to match upcoming TV revenue. What have you heard and what are your thoughts? The Twins neeed help at SS and SP. The Reds need a CF. What about Didi, Lotzkar and Leake for Revere. Who backs out or do you feel it makes sense for both sides? With Broxton now in the fold and Corcino, Cingrani and Villereal in AAA it makes sense the Reds should trade Bailey, Chapman or Leake. I don’t trade Bailey because his trade value doesn’t match his true value. Do you trade Chapman whose value will never be higer or Leake because he is the sixth SP? I love your Stanton/Chapman and Hamilton trade from last week. I also love the Revere trade above. rgslone November 28, 2012 Stock, I too believe that the Twins are a great trading partner for the Reds. I also like Revere as a target, but I think that the price you are suggesting is a huge overpayment and that it would not require anything like that to obtain Revere. Revere’s ceiling is a Juan Pierre with better defense – not a bad thing certainly, but not a star. If the Twins trade Span before the season and keep Revere he’s still just a placeholder for the Twins (see Aaron Hicks), and would be for the Reds (see Hamilton). The biggest reason I like Revere over Span is that he should be much cheaper to acquire. I believe that the Twins will gladly trade either one (Span or Revere) or possibly even both (the Twins are deep in young CF options). Span, however, is the bigger trading chip for the Twins. My guess is that the Twins would trade Revere for Leake, Cozart or Cingrani alone in a heartbeat, and probably Lotzkar + Didi. Stock November 28, 2012 If you can get Revere for Lotzkar and Didi I do it in a heartbeat. Lotzkar will never start in Cincinnati unless a lot of trades are made or if several players hit FA or get injured. Right now he is behind Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Arroyo, Chapman, Leake, Cingrani, Corcino and Stephenson. You could also argue he is behind Rogers, Langfield, Cisco and Travisio among others. Didi is no sure bat and is behind Cozart whom we have for 5 more years. I see Revere as Bourn lite. Under control for 5 years and much cheaper for those years. RobL November 28, 2012 First, the TV contract is not up until 2016. That is 4 seasons left under the current deal. I don’t see the Reds signing any free agents to 5 or 6 six year deals to back load them. Maybe in two years that will be the strategy. As far as Revere, I like him, but I like Hamilton more. Unless you want to trade Hamilton, I’d stay away from Revere. Last, you don’t know if Chapman’s value is the highest it will be. That is only the case if you know he will fail as a starter. I have my doubts on his ability to succeed there. But, I also know that he has the talent to be special too. In that case, you are talking about somebody on the same level as Price and Kershaw. I would package Chapman, Hamilton, Cingrani, and Corcino for Stanton. I just don’t think the Marlins move him. He hasn’t even reached arbitration yet. Krozley November 28, 2012 MLB has a new national tv deal that starts in 2014. Each team will get over $52 million a year under the new deal, almost twice as much as they get now. So, they will have about $25 million more revenues starting next year from the national deal, and even more in 2016 when the local deal is renegotiated. Wouldn’t it be great if mlb teams used the extra revenue to lower ticket prices instead of giving more to players contracts? There will be so much money coming in, players contracts are going to become even more ridiculous. Votto’s contract will be looked at as a bargain. Doug Gray November 28, 2012 The Reds TV contract isn’t going to be nearly the same as the big boys. They might get a large influx of cash, but so is everyone else. If the Dodgers get $240 million a year, the Reds might be able to get $50 million. I wouldn’t make that trade for Revere. I would trade Lotzkar straight up for him, but not Didi or Leake. I wouldn’t trade Bailey or Chapman right now. I wouldn’t hesitate to trade Leake if someone came calling, but I wouldn’t be outright shopping him right now either. Brett November 28, 2012 1. With the move of chapman to the rotation, does Leake, barring a trade go to AAA or the bullpen? 2. If so, what does the AAA rotation look like? 3. What is Hoover’s role in the bullpen this year? Doug Gray November 28, 2012 1. Not sure. They may want to use him as a bullpen guy to help Chapman limit his innings. 2. Corcino, Cingrani, Villarreal and then some question marks for the time being. 3. Set up man with Marshall, kind of a hybrid 7th/8th inning situation where it depends on who is coming up. foxbud November 28, 2012 1. What do we expect from Masset this year? I don’t remember how long his rehab time was to be. 2. Will we see Jocketty sign more bench depth (both MLB and AAA) to have more options during the season than last year? 3. With 2 spots open long term in the OF right now, would you commit 3 years to someone to fill LF now? via free agency? If so, who? Doug Gray November 28, 2012 1. I would expect little and hope for the best. You really don’t know what you are going to be getting at this point. 2. He has already signed some AAA guys. I hope he gets a few more guys to compete for MLB bench jobs. 3. I don’t know if there are two spots open. There may only be one depending on the plans for third base. That is what makes it all the more interesting because Todd Frazier can absolutely play there, but he can also play third. I think he starts at one of the two spots and that who is asking the right price in free agency will have more to do with where Frazier winds up. Dick November 28, 2012 Who would you rather have, Spann or Upton? Do we have a reasonable shot at Stanton? Do I drive you Batcrap crazy? Doug Gray November 28, 2012 1. Upton, without thinking twice. 2. No one does. The asking price is astronomical. I can’t see anyone pulling the trigger on a deal for him. 3. Nope. zblakey November 28, 2012 Broxton deal specifics: The three-year deal is worth $21MM, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports. The deal will pay Broxton $4MM in 2013, $7MM in 2014 and $9MM in 2015. It also includes a $9MM club option for 2016 with a $1MM buyout. If the Reds trade Broxton, the guarantee grows to $22MM, with the 2016 option becoming a mutual option with a $2MM buyout. Q1) With the Broxton deal done what be your #1 priority for the WJ & crew? Q2) How can fans of small market teams remain optimistic with the growing disparity in revenues (See Dodger TV/Cable deal)vs. large market clubs? Q3) Any veteran free agent starting pitchers available to fill a slot at AAA?? Alan Horn November 28, 2012 That’s not a bad deal. I figured he would get 10 or more per year with the competition that was supposedly out there. JIM T November 28, 2012 Alan, I would have been happier if it was a 2 year deal with a 3rd year mutual option. Alan Horn November 28, 2012 I would too, but there was some competition out there. We are probably fortunate to get away with the 7 per year. Nothing is guaranteed, but I like our chances with Broxton better than Madson and Soria who were coming off surgery this past season. If Chapman doesn’t cut it as a starter(which I don’t think will happen), then the deal doesn’t look so good(that would be true for any other closer we might have signed). MK November 28, 2012 He is only 28. JIM T November 29, 2012 hes been injured Doug Gray November 28, 2012 1. Finding either a left fielder or a third baseman (and letting Frazier play the other position). 2. I don’t have a clue. Each year it gets tougher for teams to “out smart” their way to the top. Limiting the draft budget. Limiting the international budget. Teams can’t go out and try to just build that way anymore while other teams focus on spending on free agents. 3. Reineke is a free agent. Wouldn’t surprise me to see him back with the club. Brian November 28, 2012 do the reds, in trying to upgrade the OF will try to trade Stubbs? JIM T November 28, 2012 Brian, not Doug but if I may answer absolutely. He is Arb eligible and I have seen estimates saying he’ll make 3 mil next year. That is why the Reds are looking for a leadoff hitter. That and they don’t want to waste another year with their current roster which has the talent to make a championship run if they get some help at the top of the order. Of course they will need to solve the LF issue with Ludwick or someone else. Doug Gray November 28, 2012 I can’t imagine there is much of a market for him right now. He is coming off of a terrible year and has declined three years running now. JIM T November 28, 2012 !. Do the reds get a deal done with Ludwick? 2. If your Walt do you focus your limited rescources on a lead off hitter or a middle of the order bat for LF or 3rd. Assuming Frazier plays the one you have open 3. With Chapman in the rotation and Corcino and Cingrani at AAA does Leake become part of a package to land a need? $. If I’m allowed a bonus who has the higher ceiling between Leake,Corcino and Cingrani. Doug Gray November 28, 2012 1. Nope. He wants too many years. 2. I try to find a corner guy and tell Dusty that he isn’t allowed to bat his center fielder any higher than 6th. 3. Could be. I am sure there are 15-20 teams out there who would like to have him in their rotation. Bonus answer: Corcino. boiler November 28, 2012 Does the Broxton deal mean Massett walks MK November 28, 2012 Still has a year on his contract and I am not sure what he has proven to give him much leverage once the contract is up. Doug Gray November 28, 2012 He might after his deal is up, but he is still under Reds control. MK November 28, 2012 I keep hearing that Roger Clemens’ is eligible for the Hall of Fame this year. Since he pitched professionally in 2012 how can he be eligible? I know when Rickey Henderson played independent league ball he kept putting his eligibility status back. Jimmer November 28, 2012 Independent ball does not push your clock back. Jeff November 28, 2012 Zach Stewart to Pittsburgh. Greg November 28, 2012 Could you compare Cingrani to Matt Moore? Do you think that the Reds should try to resign Bray? If not what low cost lefty do you think they should go after? Why in the world did the Reds sign Redmond to a big league deal? Doug Gray November 28, 2012 1. I could, but it would be a terrible comparison. Matt Moore throws considerably harder and has better secondary stuff. And is a lock to remain a starting pitcher. 2. I wouldn’t be opposed to bringing him back, but I don’t think he wants to come here or he would have accepted his assignment rather than opted for free agency. Not sure who I would go after. 3. To keep him from walking away. They can always let him go later if needed, but until they need a spot of three, he can stick around. Cheap risk. Norwood Nate November 28, 2012 Now with Broxton locked in to be the closer, how do you see the BP shaping up? I see five guys as locks: Brox/Marshall/Hoover/LeCure/Masset. Who fills the final two? Follow up: Is Cingrani more valuable to the Reds as a LH out of the BP for 2013 than as a AAA starter? And if the move is made does it effect his development as a SP much? How do option years work? I ask, because there is a lot of talk about Leake going to AAA. He’s been with the Reds for 3 years now. Only one of those years he’s been optioned to AAA. Does he still have two options left? Or is there service time acquired that eventually negate the options? Stock November 28, 2012 I think Simon (no options) and Arrendondo are locks also. Ondrusek to AAA? That is a sign of a deep bullpen. Norwood Nate November 28, 2012 Yeah, I really like Simon as a long guy. I know they use Arredondo as a loogy, but I’d personally feel better with Cingrani, or one of the LH FA’s out there. Doug Gray November 28, 2012 1. What stock said. 2. I think he could be, but I don’t think it will happen. The Reds have a ton of bullpen depth and while he may be an upgrade to someone, it is likely to be marginal at best. He will be in AAA starting until a spot opens up somewhere. 3. Service time can negate options and I have heard, but can’t confirm, that if Leake spends 2 weeks in the Majors this year, he is then out of options and can’t be sent down. Doug Gray November 28, 2012 Guys, I am really backed up today. I will be around to answer everything, but it might not be until about 4-5 this afternoon. Things just got real busy today. Jim Delaney November 28, 2012 My opinion on REDS trade options are players in there walk year who might be available and would solve the Reds top of order issue- Jacoby Ellsbury (maybe available, if not now, Boston sells him in July when they are dead and buried in a brutal division), Shin Soo Choo (samething here, if he isn’t available now the Indians will sell him in July when they are buried) and Coco Crisp (A’s have 4 starting outfielders- Chris Young, Reddick, Cespedes, Crisp and a strong 5th OF in Seth Smith). 3 Questions: If Reds could acquire a leadoff hitter with Cozart as trade bait, would you be willing to go with Didi everyday at SS or would Reds need a stop gap? If Leake is traded who do you think will be the rotation insurance policy for injuries/shutting Chapman down?- Redmond, Cingrani, Corcini, Villareal, etc…. Do you think the REDS sign any veteran catchers to minor league deals to add depth to farm system and have someone besides Corky in case of injury to Mes or Hanigan? Thanks! Doug Gray November 28, 2012 1. I would go with Didi and bat him 8th until he shows he is worth moving up. He will be an upgrade on defense and batting 8th he might actually perform similarly to Cozart would (less power, more average, solid OBP). 2. All of those guys are in play, though I think if the injury were serious they would go with one of Cingrani or Corcino depending on who was pitching better at the time. 3. They have to. Corky is a free agent. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them sign 2-3 guys for depth in AA and AAA. Krozley November 29, 2012 They’ve signed Nevin Ashley already as a veteran catcher. He is a 28 year old former Ray that has been in AAA the last couple years, but not yet been in the show. WallyP November 28, 2012 Greg I was speaking about the lefty situation today with a good friend who is a huge Reds fan . We were talking about lefties, and I would think Cingrani could break in as a relief guy, and I would not discount Manno being in the mix at some point in the next year and a half. WallyP November 28, 2012 I understand the front office like him very much Alan Horn November 28, 2012 B.J. Upton is out of the picture. He is signing with the Braves. Doug Gray November 28, 2012 And the Braves are out of their minds giving him that kind of money. Alan Horn November 29, 2012 The Braves are crazy for signing him period. The Braves are my 2nd favorite team. Doug Gray November 29, 2012 Nah, not crazy for signing him period. He is likely one of the 10 best centerfielders in the game. He just isn’t worth that much money. Alan Horn November 29, 2012 In my opinion, he is lazy and has a bad attitude. I would not want that type of player on my Little League team. It rubs off on the rest of the players. I could care less how good he is(and I don’t think he is that great). He could be something special with a attitude adjustment. One of the easiest things to do. Everyone has the ability to do it.