The Rule 5 draft is tomorrow. Today I wanted to look at a few Reds guys who have a chance of being selected and a who the Reds may select.
The Reds
Let’s start with the arms. Justin Freeman throws in the low 90′s with a good slider. He is coming off of a season in AA Pensacola where he posted a 2.91 ERA with 16 walks and 68 strikeouts in 68 innings pitched. Freeman isn’t a guy who will wow the scouts, but at some point results matter and he has had them for his entire career and his stuff is of Major League quality. Tim Crabbe is another guy who throws in the low 90′s with his fastball and he throws a good change up and mixes in a slider/cutter as well. He struggled in AA with the Blue Wahoos, but was very strong in the second half with the Blaze. He showed much better control in the second half. A team could be interested in his as a reliever where he could focus on his fastball/change up. Mark Serrano, like the others, has a low 90′s fastball to work with and he mixes in an above-average slider. He too was in Pensacola and posted a 3.95 ERA in 93.1 innings with 30 walks and 95 strikeouts.
I think there is probably only one position player at risk and that is Josh Fellhauer. While he was used almost exclusively as a platoon outfielder against right handed pitching, he profiles very well as a fourth outfielder. He hit .314/.409/.420 with 54 walks and 54 strikeouts in 399 plate appearances. He can play defense at all three position in the outfield, has some solid speed and a good plate approach. Again, not a guy with the tools that will wow anyone, but he has produced and has solid tools to work with.
Who the Reds could select
There may not be any specific player that I can peg as a potential Reds pick, especially as they have one of the last picks so it would be really tough to nail down a specific player. With that said, I think we can look at specific areas of need. On the big league club the rotation and the bullpen are full. The player would need to stick on the 25-man roster all season long and I just can’t see the Reds selecting a pitcher who they would give priority over anyone on the current pitching staff. The Reds outfield seems full with Stubbs, Heisey, Bruce, Paul and whoever they bring in for left field. That leaves up the infield, where the starters seem good to go, but the backups are in serious question. This is exactly where the Reds could look to bring someone in to compete for a position. They need someone who can first and foremost cover shortstop because the Reds won’t go without someone on the bench who can do that. Ideally this player would also have a decent bat, which aside from one season from Miguel Cairo, the Reds back up infielders have sorely lacked over the last few years.
Jonathan Mayo has up his Top 20 Rule 5 eligible prospects at MLB.com if you wanted to check it out and familiarize yourself with some of the names. Mayo’s list is pitching heavy with no one who fits where I think the Reds should be looking to fill their needs. There are a few former top prospects available.
Baseball America has up a subscriber only two part series. You can see part one at this link and check out part two here. In part two there is one guy who could fit the profile that I believe the Reds desperately need. Cole Figueroa (stats) is a second baseman who has spent a small amount of time at shortstop and third base in his career. He also has more walks than strikeouts in his career, so he brings a solid plate approach as well. He seems like a perfect fit for the Reds bench in my opinion.
Never heard of Figueroa before but I like the stat sheet. .286/.344 at AAA is not too shabby. 33 errors/.981 FP in what amounts to nearly 3 full 162 game seasons shows his defense isn’t bad either. I could get on board with taking him. Considering what we got out of Valdez & Cairo last season he couldn’t do any worse.
Never challenge worse. There must be some low/reasonably priced veteran infielder out there. IMO a contending team needs an experienced b/u infielder.
Ryan Theriot and Lyle Overbay I think would be good gets for the bench. Overbay hits RH pitching very well and would be cheap, Theriot would be absolutley perfect for this team. Can play all IF positions and could hit lead off 2/3 per week. What about Keppinger to play 3rd bat second and Frazier to LF and Clean Up. Platoon Paul and Stubbs and I think that the team would be set W/O spending much money.
I could see them taking a shot at a left-handed reliever, although those tend to get picked up quicker than others and there may not be any decent ones left by the time the Reds pick. Mayo’s list had a few intriguing names.
Cole can outright play , I think that is a great choice Ron. I watched him last year and really like his game.
I just saw on Reds Reporter a list of some players that might be a match in the draft for the Reds.
On Mayo list I like Carlo Perez the LH pitcher.. With Chapman going to a starter role…
Agree. Worth a spring training look at the very least.
Even Fay has tweeted that the Reds might be looking for LHP for the pen thru the RuleV draft. Seems to be one slot open there. The infield backup will probably be another low cost free agent that no one else wants.
Keppinger is likely to get paid 4mil or more per year, with a 2-3 year deal from someone like the Yankees, so cross him off the wish list. He would be a good pick up, though.
How about this: Sign Scott Hairston and Raul Ibanez to platoon and play LF. They would be cheaper than what it would cost to sign Ludwick. Ryan Theriot and Eric Chavez for the bench IF positions. Scott Podsednik to platoon with Stubbs. Randy Choate or Mike Gonzalez for the LHP role in BP.
I just don’t see where there is a spot open in the bullpen.
They cant go with just one lefty can they. It looks to me they will have a hard time picking BP
I may be in the fan minority, but I would prefer Youklis to Ludwick. I’m wondering how their contracts will compare. I think Youklis provides a little more team flexibility in where in the order he can bat and positions on the field. Naturally it would bump Frazier to LF. I just have a feeling that Ludwick made the best of his opportunity, and I’m not confident after his pay day he will be as productive.
Greg: I was hoping Podsednik might be available later in the offseason and may accept a minor league deal with a promise to compete at Spring Training for a ML roster spot.
Scott, you could be right about Ludwick, but Youlillis is just as big(if not a larger gamble) because of his injury history. Both are in the age bracket that they become iffy. Both come at a much cheaper price than someone like Upton for example. That is what makes them worth the gamble. I prefer Ludwick because he seemed durable last season and wasn’t injured. Who knows for sure how either will turn out.
I may have a warped opinion, but the durability factor is okay with me to a certain degree as it would allow Frazier opportunities at 3B. Giving a veteran a day game off after a night game is reasonable, however, stints on the DL would obviously be a concern.
I like Ryan Theriot as well. Hits for a good average, and given Didi’s presence at AAA, Theriot will never be called upon to be a starter….unless Phillips goes down. In that scenario, I like Theriot at 2B.
Guys—if you were a GM and you could have Xavier Paul or Josh Fellhauer as a 4th OF, who would you choose?
Paul. He has shown he can be productive against mlb pitching. I like Fellhauer, but he has only gotten it done at AA.
I was impressed with Xavier Paul’s opportunity last year to keep him around, haven’t seen Fellhauer as much.
With the Ellsbury for Cliff Lee rumors it makes me wonder if the Sox would prefer an expensive veteran pitcher to a cheaper pitcher entering his prime (Homer Bailey)? Problem is after a year Ellsbury would be too expensive to resign so it would be an expensive win now proposition.
There is a rumor on Redszone about a trade about to happen with the Red Sox. Stubbs and Daniel Corcino for Jacoby Ellsbury. If Ellsbury can stay healthy, it would be a great trade. He was on the DL 2(bulk of) of the last 3 seasons with some super stats in 2011 when he was healthy. If he falls to injury, I guess we still have Heisey and hopefully Hamilton soon.Again, if he can stay on the field, it would be a great pickup in my opinion. It’s a gamble.
That rumor has about as many legs as a snake. The only two people who have mentioned it anywhere are Wildman Walker and Tracy Jones. Of all the people on the planet to scoop that kind of news, they are at the bottom.
Last night on ESPN radio Buster Onley mentioned that he heard Boston is toying with moving Ellsbury, and he could see the Reds and other teams being interested.That’s a far as he got. No players were named. I think if any of us heard that Boston might move Ellsbury, we could easily say ‘the Reds might look into it’. I don’t see it as a story, yet at least.
Cody Ross or Ryan Ludwick to play LF and hit clean up?
For awhile I didn’t think the Reds would even consider adding anyone from the rule V today. But since they cleared two spots last week, I think they may take a gamble on a lefty. Maybe Carlos Perez from the Braves. He’s only 21, has good stuff, struggled as a starter, but showed promise in the bullpen granted at a low level in a short time. Basically a tiny gamble to acquire another premium arm. Leake looks ticketed to AAA as insurance, since the Reds don’t want to just throw him in the bullpen. And I think they want to keep developing Cingrani a starter until he struggles, which he hasn’t shown any sign of at all. Doug makes a pretty good point that the bullpen is stacked even without that second lefty with at least seven locks if healthy. Broxton, Marsharll, Arredondo, Ondrusek, Hoover, Lecure, and Simon are all easy calls to make the team next year. Masett had shoulder capsule surgery in September, and the Reds haven’t announced any timetable for a possible recovery. Jon Fay, shockingly, with all his investigative skills hasn’t really eluded to his situation either. The only time I’ve really heard of a guy getting this shoulder capsule surgery was when Johan Santana recently came back from it with a high 80′s fastball a full year after the surgery. So Masset looks like a September callup to this point. And unfortunately, I feel like Masset has become the next Jared Burton/Bill Bray, a promising reliever the Reds just can’t pay and wait to see if they get healthy. So I guess my point is, although it looks like the bullpen is covered, the Reds should really think about grabbing another arm as insurance in case a guy doesn’t make it out of spring training. It happens every year. In 2010 it was Cueto and Bailey. Last year it was Bray, Massett, and Madson. They might as well pay 50grand(peanuts for the Reds) to take a young lefty with a big arm to possibly make the team as the 7th/8th guy.
Word is they have a spot open to take a LHP, and might try and swing a deal ($$) with a team at the top of the order so they can get him – just like they did to get Hamilton years ago. The Reds are slotted to pick next to last, and chances are the guy they want would be gone by the time that they would pick. Could be interesting to see how it plays out.
Ludwick signing would fill the other spot on the 40 man roster.