Cincinnati Reds Top Prospects: How much power do they hit for? Doug Gray January 28, 2013 18 Comments Today I wanted to look at the power numbers for all of the hitters in my Top 40 list who had at least 200 plate appearances in the 2012 season. In the chart below I have listed the Isolated Power to each field, sorted from highest total to lowest total. On the right side of the chart is the home field park factors for where each guy played (adjusted for playing time at each level for guys who played at multiple levels). Basically, anything above .000 is favorable for the hitters (hitters park), while anything below it is unfavorable (pitchers park). The numbers are only adjusted against other parks in their specific league, not against all of the minor leagues. While I only am showing the home park factors, I thought I would add in at least which leagues are considered to be hitter/pitcher friendly. Keep that in mind when evaluating the above data below. Pitcher friendly leagues: Midwest (Dayton) and International (Louisville). Hitter friendly leagues: Arizona, Pioneer (Billings), California (Bakersfield) and Southern (Pensacola). Isolated Power Home Park IsoP Park Factor Player Pull Side CF Opposite Total Pull Side CF Opposite Donald Lutz .791 .560 .384 1.735 .060 .078 .090 Seth Mejias-Brean .926 .353 .409 1.688 -.118 -.018 .144 David Vidal .800 .432 .120 1.352 .140 .055 .082 Travis Mattair .755 .292 .270 1.317 .036 .128 .022 Steve Selsky .612 .274 .372 1.258 .037 .101 .019 Neftali Soto .695 .198 .362 1.255 -.008 -.013 -.045 Yorman Rodriguez .507 .347 .333 1.187 .038 .080 .018 Jesse Winker .242 .270 .607 1.119 .144 -.018 -.118 Tanner Rahier .588 .190 .333 1.111 -.136 .081 .140 Devin Lohman .699 .101 .220 1.020 .036 .128 .022 Average .662 .302 .341 1.304 N/A N/A N/A Ryan Wright .547 .243 .191 .981 .039 .090 .020 Kyle Waldrop .583 .241 .145 .969 .017 .075 .039 Tucker Barnhart (LHH) .460 .246 .261 .967 .060 .095 .150 Billy Hamilton (RHH) .375 .250 .294 .919 .066 .100 .042 Henry Rodriguez (RHH) .633 .125 .154 .912 .095 .020 .065 Bryson Smith .382 .203 .286 .871 .105 .075 .060 Billy Hamilton (LHH) .360 .176 .262 .798 .042 .100 .066 Ryan LaMarre .393 .104 .215 .712 .172 .032 .102 Jonathan Reynoso .433 .000 .250 .683 -.136 .081 .140 Josh Fellhauer .271 .164 .235 .670 .102 .032 .172 Tucker Barnhart (RHH) .250 .000 .067 .317 .150 .095 .060 Henry Rodriguez (LHH) .076 .058 .115 .249 .065 .020 .095 Donald Lutz tops the list, which is no surprise if you have ever seen him run into a baseball before. He also led the way with power to center, which isn’t a surprise for both the previously mentioned reason and the fact that Bakersfield, where he spent a lot of his time, has a 350 foot fence in center. Newcomer Seth Mejias-Brean finds himself second on the list. What is interesting is how much power he hit for to the pull side despite left field in Billings playing quite favorably for pitchers. His pull side power led everyone on the list. Supplemental first rounder Jesse Winker led the way in opposite field power, which is quite impressive due to the previously mentioned way that left field plays in Billings. At the bottom of the list are Tucker Barnhart from the right side and Henry Rodriguez from the left side. They are separated from the group by a significant margin. Rodriguez was recovering from an injury and hasn’t been as poor historically as he was in 2012. With that said, he has only had pull power in the past from either side of the plate. Tucker Barnhart has not had an extra-base hit to center field in the last two seasons as a right hander and only a few to the opposite field in the last two seasons combined from the right side. From the left side he is quite a bit better. 18 Responses Stock January 28, 2013 A couple of things jump out at me. First I love Winker’s opposite field power. His opposite field power along with his ability to walk remind me of Votto. Votto walked more at Billings but was a year older. Winker’s 338/443/500 line is comparable to Votto’s 317/452/488 line at Billings. Second is Mejias-Brean’s pull power. I think the Reds 2012 draft will be considered a huge success mostly because of these two picks. Dayton fans are in for a treat this summer. The Duke January 28, 2013 Dayton really should have a nice team, especially if they start SMB there. 1. Beau Amaral, CF 2. Zach Vincej, SS 3. Jesse Winker, LF 4. Seth Mejias-Brean, 3B 5. Jeff Gelalich, RF 6. Robert Maddox, 1B 7. Dan Pigott, DH 8. Brandon Dailey, 2B 9. Joe Hudson, C 1. Robert Stephenson 2. Ismael Guillon 3. Jon Moscot 4. Drew Cisco 5. West Mugarian Even if SMB goes straight to Bakersfield and Arias is back at 3B that lineup would still be pretty potent with a dang good rotation and a lot of college arms in the bullpen. Krozley January 28, 2013 Carlos Sanchez had a .920 OPS at Billings last year and might be the more likely 1B. Foxbud January 28, 2013 Doug, a great read…. Best of the winter for subjects not Hot Stove related. Now this I would pay for… Scott R January 28, 2013 I’m with Foxbud on this. Great analysis Doug. Eric O January 28, 2013 Note on Barnhart: I asked him during the Reds Caravan: Bigger thrill, winning the best defensive catcher award or getting an invite to spring training. He said spring training, definitely. sultan of swaff January 28, 2013 Great post, Doug. There’s a strong correlation between using the whole field + walk rate = major leaguer. To that end, Soto and LaMarre fare quite poorly. Well, at least LaMarre can play defense, but I’m not holding my breath. Still, the Reds must think pretty highly of him to keep inviting him on the Caravan every year. Doug Gray January 28, 2013 Sultan, I am not arguing your point at the top, but I am curious if it is just an idea you believe or if you have seen a study on it before. If it is a study that you saw, I would enjoy reading it. sultan of swaff January 28, 2013 Eh, just observations. It just seems that if you’re gonna be a heavy pull hitter, your contact rates had better be thru the roof to compensate for the defensive schemes and how the pitchers attack you. It’s just such a high hurdle to overcome. Yet, there are exceptions. Alfonso Soriano and Vlad the Impaler comes to mind. Doug Gray January 28, 2013 Dead pull hitter that beats it all: Jose Bautista. Scott from upstate NY January 28, 2013 Agree with the others I like the power content analysis. I’ve also enjoyed the comparisons of each Major league team’s overall prospect strength, and the 1 year analysis of last June’s draft class. My concern relative to the state of the Reds farm is its lack of blue chip run producers. I hope the Reds can afford to buy a run producer with its pitching surplus in the event a Votto or Bruce is lost for a long period. Knock on wood. Enjoying the book – thanks Doug. MK January 28, 2013 Where would Sean Buckley rate? Doug Gray January 28, 2013 Pull side/CF/Oppo .672/.247/.240 Dan January 28, 2013 Does this maybe give a hint into Brean’s post college power spike? I don’t know much of anything about his college days, but do you think they gave him some Bautista-like advice in Billings? Doug Gray January 28, 2013 I do know that there were swing changes made from his college to pro days, but I don’t know that he is going all Bautista and pulling everything he sees when he didn’t used to because I don’t really know what he used to do. Herbie January 28, 2013 All that opposite field power; is Winker driving the ball the other way or legging out a lot of slap hits? I’m guessing since he’s also got three triples and five dingers that it’s the former. Mbushskbum January 28, 2013 Watched Winker in Billings this past season, no slap hits, sloooowwwww. I think he has more power than his #s suggest so far,he is still learning and turning on more balls as the season went on was my impression. Doug posted some numbers showing his power increased markedly in the 2nd half of the pioneer league season. Doug Gray January 28, 2013 Winker isn’t exactly slow at this point, but at best, he is an average runner.