Today I wanted to look at the power numbers for all of the hitters in my Top 40 list who had at least 200 plate appearances in the 2012 season. In the chart below I have listed the Isolated Power to each field, sorted from highest total to lowest total. On the right side of the chart is the home field park factors for where each guy played (adjusted for playing time at each level for guys who played at multiple levels). Basically, anything above .000 is favorable for the hitters (hitters park), while anything below it is unfavorable (pitchers park). The numbers are only adjusted against other parks in their specific league, not against all of the minor leagues.
While I only am showing the home park factors, I thought I would add in at least which leagues are considered to be hitter/pitcher friendly. Keep that in mind when evaluating the above data below.
Pitcher friendly leagues: Midwest (Dayton) and International (Louisville).
Hitter friendly leagues: Arizona, Pioneer (Billings), California (Bakersfield) and Southern (Pensacola).
| Isolated Power | Home Park IsoP Park Factor | ||||||
| Player | Pull Side | CF | Opposite | Total | Pull Side | CF | Opposite |
| Donald Lutz | .791 | .560 | .384 | 1.735 | .060 | .078 | .090 |
| Seth Mejias-Brean | .926 | .353 | .409 | 1.688 | -.118 | -.018 | .144 |
| David Vidal | .800 | .432 | .120 | 1.352 | .140 | .055 | .082 |
| Travis Mattair | .755 | .292 | .270 | 1.317 | .036 | .128 | .022 |
| Steve Selsky | .612 | .274 | .372 | 1.258 | .037 | .101 | .019 |
| Neftali Soto | .695 | .198 | .362 | 1.255 | -.008 | -.013 | -.045 |
| Yorman Rodriguez | .507 | .347 | .333 | 1.187 | .038 | .080 | .018 |
| Jesse Winker | .242 | .270 | .607 | 1.119 | .144 | -.018 | -.118 |
| Tanner Rahier | .588 | .190 | .333 | 1.111 | -.136 | .081 | .140 |
| Devin Lohman | .699 | .101 | .220 | 1.020 | .036 | .128 | .022 |
| Average | .662 | .302 | .341 | 1.304 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Ryan Wright | .547 | .243 | .191 | .981 | .039 | .090 | .020 |
| Kyle Waldrop | .583 | .241 | .145 | .969 | .017 | .075 | .039 |
| Tucker Barnhart (LHH) | .460 | .246 | .261 | .967 | .060 | .095 | .150 |
| Billy Hamilton (RHH) | .375 | .250 | .294 | .919 | .066 | .100 | .042 |
| Henry Rodriguez (RHH) | .633 | .125 | .154 | .912 | .095 | .020 | .065 |
| Bryson Smith | .382 | .203 | .286 | .871 | .105 | .075 | .060 |
| Billy Hamilton (LHH) | .360 | .176 | .262 | .798 | .042 | .100 | .066 |
| Ryan LaMarre | .393 | .104 | .215 | .712 | .172 | .032 | .102 |
| Jonathan Reynoso | .433 | .000 | .250 | .683 | -.136 | .081 | .140 |
| Josh Fellhauer | .271 | .164 | .235 | .670 | .102 | .032 | .172 |
| Tucker Barnhart (RHH) | .250 | .000 | .067 | .317 | .150 | .095 | .060 |
| Henry Rodriguez (LHH) | .076 | .058 | .115 | .249 | .065 | .020 | .095 |
Donald Lutz tops the list, which is no surprise if you have ever seen him run into a baseball before. He also led the way with power to center, which isn’t a surprise for both the previously mentioned reason and the fact that Bakersfield, where he spent a lot of his time, has a 350 foot fence in center. Newcomer Seth Mejias-Brean finds himself second on the list. What is interesting is how much power he hit for to the pull side despite left field in Billings playing quite favorably for pitchers. His pull side power led everyone on the list. Supplemental first rounder Jesse Winker led the way in opposite field power, which is quite impressive due to the previously mentioned way that left field plays in Billings.
At the bottom of the list are Tucker Barnhart from the right side and Henry Rodriguez from the left side. They are separated from the group by a significant margin. Rodriguez was recovering from an injury and hasn’t been as poor historically as he was in 2012. With that said, he has only had pull power in the past from either side of the plate. Tucker Barnhart has not had an extra-base hit to center field in the last two seasons as a right hander and only a few to the opposite field in the last two seasons combined from the right side. From the left side he is quite a bit better.
A couple of things jump out at me. First I love Winker’s opposite field power. His opposite field power along with his ability to walk remind me of Votto. Votto walked more at Billings but was a year older. Winker’s 338/443/500 line is comparable to Votto’s 317/452/488 line at Billings.
Second is Mejias-Brean’s pull power. I think the Reds 2012 draft will be considered a huge success mostly because of these two picks. Dayton fans are in for a treat this summer.
Dayton really should have a nice team, especially if they start SMB there.
1. Beau Amaral, CF
2. Zach Vincej, SS
3. Jesse Winker, LF
4. Seth Mejias-Brean, 3B
5. Jeff Gelalich, RF
6. Robert Maddox, 1B
7. Dan Pigott, DH
8. Brandon Dailey, 2B
9. Joe Hudson, C
1. Robert Stephenson
2. Ismael Guillon
3. Jon Moscot
4. Drew Cisco
5. West Mugarian
Even if SMB goes straight to Bakersfield and Arias is back at 3B that lineup would still be pretty potent with a dang good rotation and a lot of college arms in the bullpen.
Carlos Sanchez had a .920 OPS at Billings last year and might be the more likely 1B.
Doug, a great read…. Best of the winter for subjects not Hot Stove related. Now this I would pay for…
I’m with Foxbud on this. Great analysis Doug.
Note on Barnhart:
I asked him during the Reds Caravan: Bigger thrill, winning the best defensive catcher award or getting an invite to spring training.
He said spring training, definitely.
Great post, Doug. There’s a strong correlation between using the whole field + walk rate = major leaguer.
To that end, Soto and LaMarre fare quite poorly. Well, at least LaMarre can play defense, but I’m not holding my breath. Still, the Reds must think pretty highly of him to keep inviting him on the Caravan every year.
Sultan, I am not arguing your point at the top, but I am curious if it is just an idea you believe or if you have seen a study on it before. If it is a study that you saw, I would enjoy reading it.
Eh, just observations. It just seems that if you’re gonna be a heavy pull hitter, your contact rates had better be thru the roof to compensate for the defensive schemes and how the pitchers attack you. It’s just such a high hurdle to overcome. Yet, there are exceptions. Alfonso Soriano and Vlad the Impaler comes to mind.
Dead pull hitter that beats it all: Jose Bautista.
Agree with the others I like the power content analysis. I’ve also enjoyed the comparisons of each Major league team’s overall prospect strength, and the 1 year analysis of last June’s draft class.
My concern relative to the state of the Reds farm is its lack of blue chip run producers. I hope the Reds can afford to buy a run producer with its pitching surplus in the event a Votto or Bruce is lost for a long period. Knock on wood.
Enjoying the book – thanks Doug.
Where would Sean Buckley rate?
Pull side/CF/Oppo
.672/.247/.240
Does this maybe give a hint into Brean’s post college power spike? I don’t know much of anything about his college days, but do you think they gave him some Bautista-like advice in Billings?
I do know that there were swing changes made from his college to pro days, but I don’t know that he is going all Bautista and pulling everything he sees when he didn’t used to because I don’t really know what he used to do.
All that opposite field power; is Winker driving the ball the other way or legging out a lot of slap hits? I’m guessing since he’s also got three triples and five dingers that it’s the former.
Watched Winker in Billings this past season, no slap hits, sloooowwwww.
I think he has more power than his #s suggest so far,he is still learning and turning on more balls as the season went on was my impression. Doug posted some numbers showing his power increased markedly in the 2nd half of the pioneer league season.
Winker isn’t exactly slow at this point, but at best, he is an average runner.