MLB.com Top 100 Prospect List discussion

Jonathan Mayo released the MLB.com Top 100 Prospect List. Before getting into the list, I want to talk about how the list is compiled. This is from another article that breaks down some of the previously linked Top 100 list.

With those requirements in mind, each scout was asked to anonymously provide his own top 50. An AP poll-type format was used. If, say, a scout put Profar in the top spot, he would get 50 points; the second prospect gets 49 points, and so on, down to one point for the 50th prospect on each list. The more scouts involved, the more thorough the list, but there’s no avoiding having some opinion form the overall rankings.

I am not the biggest fan of this kind of system. There are flaws in a system like that. One guy being overly high that no one else is could put him on the list, while in theory every single voter could have the same #51 prospect who wouldn’t show up at all.

Onto the list. The Reds had three players on the list. First came Billy Hamilton at #11. The report filed on him is, as they have always been, built around his game changing speed. Robert Stephenson cracks the list at #51. The report filed on him talks about his overall stuff and potential near the top of the rotation. Tony Cingrani is the final Red on the list and he comes in at #66. His scouting report says that he will likely need to improve his slider to remain a starter, but his fastball and change up are enough to perform in the bullpen.

Billy Hamilton is ranked in the right spot. As you know, I am a sabermetrics guy. I kind of hope that Hamilton is a player who can break the molds we have for just about every player who fits into the stats we use to determine value. What he can do on the bases could be a very interesting study. Yes, I am a nerd. I can’t help it. Math and baseball? Yeah, that is awesome.

Billy Hamilton Video from 2012 (something the MLB Network broadcast didn’t even show, instead using video from 2011)

I personally have Robert Stephenson quite a bit higher than where he shows up on this list, but I think he will wind up in the 40-60 area on other lists (BA/BP/ESPN) when they come out as well. I believe that his upside outweighs whatever inexperience over a full season that might be holding him back. I just can’t see more than a few guys in the minors who can match him on a pure stuff level and the numbers he has put up have been quite strong.

Robert Stephenson Video from 2012

Tony Cingrani was about where I had expected, though I would have ranked him lower. He is a very safe bet to be a quality reliever. I am still just not entirely sold that he can be a starter without several improvements (must improve his slider, needs to be less reliant on his fastball). He has a very high floor, but I am just unsure that he won’t wind up being that floor either.

Tony Cingrani Video from 2012

I figured going in that Daniel Corcino would be in the 75-100 range on the list, but once I saw how the list was compiled, I figured he wouldn’t be. I wouldn’t rank Corcino in the Top 50 and apparently neither would anyone that Mayo asked. With that said, I fully believe he is a Top 100 prospect and think he will show up in the other Top 100 lists that are compiled a differently.

Daniel Corcino Video from 2012

What is your take?

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