Baseball America Top 100 Prospect List discussion Doug Gray February 19, 2013 21 Comments Baseball America just released their Top 100 Prospects in all of baseball. You can view the tool rankings for each player here.The Reds had these guys make the list: 20. Billy Hamilton – OF 56. Robert Stephenson – RHP 82. Tony Cingrani – LHP 94. Daniel Corcino – RHP That is roughly in the range of where each guy was expected to land. Billy Hamilton leads to crop from the Reds. He is a safe bet to be a Major Leaguers, but where his bat progresses too will take him from being an average player to perhaps an MVP contender depending on just how much it continues to develop. Personally, I would have had Robert Stephenson a little bit higher than he is here. He has top of the rotation potential and already has two plus pitches and a third one that shows it could be an above-average one. Tony Cingrani and Daniel Corcino are guys I would have flipped around. I am just not as sold on him being a starter as others are. Corcino has more pitches at this point that are Major League quality which makes me feel a little more comfortable saying he can start. As relievers,I would also take Corcino ahead of Cingrani. Both belong in the Top 100 though. Here is where I predicted each guy would fall on the list before it came out. Billy Hamilton: I believe he will fall in the 15-20 range. Robert Stephenson: I believe he will fall in the 60-65 range. Tony Cingrani: I believe he will fall in the 70-75 range. Daniel Corcino: I believe he will fall in the 75-80 range. This is for subscribers only, but it is a list of the Top Tools among the Top 100 prospects. Billy Hamilton (Speed) and Robert Stephenson (FB) both make appearances. Other news and notes The Dayton Dragons announced their spring training schedule. While this is specific to that team, it likely looks exactly like all of the other farm teams, except that the A ball teams are home when the AA/AAA teams travel. Earlier this month the Reds signed a RHP out of Australia named Dakota Mitchell. His local newspaper has an article up on him right now. The article talks about how he was pitching with a shredded elbow before he really knew he was injured and that after he found out several teams backed off negotiations with him before the Reds stepped up to sign him. Go give it a read. 21 Responses mike February 19, 2013 Already saw the list, good guess on the first two a bit off on the last two. The Duke February 19, 2013 I saw the Prospect Handbook yesterday and Corcino wasn’t in any of the top 50’s in the book, not a good sign for inclusion in the top 100. I’ll guess: Hamilton at 18 Stephenson at 55 Cingrani at 82 Doug Gray February 19, 2013 Yeah, I have the handbook too. Corcino not being in the Top 50 on any list doesn’t worry me for him not making the Top 100. The Duke February 19, 2013 Pretty good guessing by me. Doug Gray February 19, 2013 You could have done better! 2 spots, 1 spot and on target? We expected better! DaveCT February 19, 2013 I think Billy peaks at 18, Stephenson I’ll go 48, due to upside and BA’s often love of it. Cingrani 87 due to doubt on the elusive third pitch (he should go look on a grassy knoll). DaveCT February 19, 2013 Nice article on the Aussie kid. Baseball fans, people in general love that stuff. It is yet another example of the Jockety/Buckley way, and the Reds way of old, of getting players who know the game, respect the game, and will go thru doors to make it. The Duke February 19, 2013 It’s just part of the game and I understand injuries play a large role but it stinks to grab excited about guys like Mitchell, Jonathan Perez, or Jeremy Kivel and then have to wait a looooooong time until they ever pitch in even the AZL. Assuming Costante stays healthy it will be refreshing to have a somewhat high profile young pitching sign play stateside right away. I understand it, I just don’t like it. Doug Gray February 19, 2013 Yeah, that always does kind of stink when it works out that way. Or even in a situation like two years ago when Stephenson didn’t pitch, then didn’t start in Dayton and we had to wait until he got to Billings in Mid June. Drives a guy like me CRAZY. MK February 19, 2013 On the minor league spring schedules early on you are usually watching the guys who will be at the level below. Until they start cutting the AAA guys from the big league roster many of the AA guys are playing the AAA games and that works its way down. Doug Gray February 19, 2013 Yeah. Have to love the trickle down. Doug Gray February 19, 2013 Here is something interesting from the Top 100 list on the subscriber side of things If you are a subscriber, you can see the individual scouting rankings for the different tools for each player. I looked at the four guys for the Reds and interestingly enough, Robert Stephenson came out on top by 1 point over Hamilton, followed by Daniel Corcino who had a 2 point edge on Cingrani. Not the order you would expect given their rankings. Of course, you can’t grade Hamilton’s speed higher than an 80 despite scouts saying it should be higher. At the same time, I don’t agree with the grade they gave Stephenson on his curveball either. Just some food for thought. Doug Gray February 19, 2013 The individual tools rankings are now available for free. I updated the post to link to it. fromcubawithluv February 19, 2013 I have a scouting question: When they grade the individual pitches, does this include control of that pitch? or just velocity and movement? If it includes control (which I am assuming), what is the point of having a control and command grade separately? And …. what is the difference between control and command? These questions came to me in regards to Stephenson getting a 75 on his fastball. If he really hit 100 as a starter in games on multiple occasions, kind of confused how the pitch isn’t an 80. Doug Gray February 19, 2013 It does not account for control/command of the pitch. Those are obviously separate grades, though that can be misleading. For example, Tony Cingrani has excellent control over his fastball, but not as much over his other pitches. Control is the ability to throw strikes. Command is the ability to throw the pitch exactly where you wanted it. With Stephenson and his 75, I think it is because there were times last year where he sat 93-95 rather than the 95-98 that he sat other times. The Duke February 19, 2013 Control is the ability to throw strikes. Command is the ability to locate within the strikezone. Control and command is sort of an overall grade but also includes how often you can generate swing and misses. The pitch ranking themselves look more at speed/movement/location than the result it generates. That’s how i’ve understood it. BA is trying to be a little stingier with their 80`s than they were last year and in the past. If Chapman and Verlander are an 80, you better be pretty close to that for an 80 fastball. David February 19, 2013 On a separate note, John popovich of wcpo thinks that so far olivo is the backup catcher. Because he goes second in all the drills plus he has been the personal caddy for Chapman so far. He notes that is very early though. Doug Gray February 19, 2013 Olivo is a career backup with a .275 OBP. I don’t care if he hit .750 in the spring, he shouldn’t make this team. Oh, did I mention that he is also a poor defender? MK February 19, 2013 I have not heard one of the talking heads on TV (ESPN, MLBTV or local) who think the Chapman to starter move is a good one for this team this year. In fact most have gone so far as to call it a stupid idea. Listening to Dusty on Baseball Tonight this afternoon (that is an oxymoron) I think he will be the closer. Doug Gray February 19, 2013 Fortunately, as Dusty has noted, the decision on Chapman isn’t his. Chapman is going to start this year unless he gets hurt. And he should. I will never be convinced that you shouldn’t at least try it out. There is absolutely no downside to it. There is a ton of downside to not trying it. Jimmer February 20, 2013 I’m done doubting Walt. He knows what he is doing — much more so than anyone on ESPN.