Discussing the Baseball Prospectus Top 101 Prospects and other notes Doug Gray February 25, 2013 20 Comments Jason Parks and the BP crew at Baseball Prospectus released his Top 101 prospects list this morning. Here were the Reds that were on the list: (14) Billy Hamilton (78) Robert Stephenson (91) Tony Cingrani That was the highest that Billy Hamilton ranked on a list this season and the lowest that Stephenson and Cingrani ranked. I am having a tough time seeing 35 pitching prospects ranked ahead of Robert Stephenson. Parks hasn’t released his Reds list yet though, so we can’t see the scouting report on him to see exactly what he thinks about him. The lack of Daniel Corcino surprised me, but the more I thought about it, if Stephenson is the #26 starting prospect, I can see Corcino being further down the list because he is easily that far ahead of Corcino. Parks did had this to say about Stephenson after the list: Robert Stephenson will be at least 30 spots higher in 2014. Maybe he should be that high now. Love the arm; love the approach. What are your thoughts? If you missed the post yesterday, I have teamed up with the crew at Redleg Nation for their Redleg Nation Radio podcast. We are planning to do a show once a week and the shows are live and will be on blogtalkradio.com which will allow us to have a live chat room as well as take phone calls if anyone listening has anything to say about a topic we are on. When we have a show scheduled for a day, there will be posts here, on twitter and facebook and on Redleg Nation to let everyone know we have a show that day if you want to interact with us while the show is live. If you want to check out the first show, you can listen below. We didn’t touch on any minor league stuff, but it will be a part of the show moving forward. After the Reds pitching giving up 24 runs in the first two games, they were finally able to put together a strong group outing. Hitting on the other hand took a step back, as they only had one hit, a single by Jason Donald. The good news is, tomorrow you can listen to the game online for free for those of you who don’t pick up 700 wlw where you live. It should be available on Reds.com at game time according to their website. For those of you guys who are already gearing up for the draft, Matt Garrioch has up his Top 100 draft prospects as we head into the 2013 high school and college seasons at MinorLeagueBall.com. Things are going to change an awful lot between now and June, but this is at least a “follow” list. 20 Responses The Duke February 25, 2013 Robert Stephenson will be at least 30 spots higher in 2014. Maybe he should be that high now. Love the arm; love the approach.Hamilton 14 Stephenson 78 Cingrani 91 Comment on Stephenson by Parks: “Robert Stephenson will be at least 30 spots higher in 2014. Maybe he should be that high now. Love the arm; love the approach.” Not my favorite list as I know little of his reasoning, and I think he is way too low on Stephenson. wally February 25, 2013 dont get me started on rankings Garbage garbage garbage Doug Gray February 25, 2013 Everyone has rankings. Organizations have theirs. Writers have theirs. Fans have theirs. The first ones are the most important though, because they are going to dictate playing time for guys. David February 25, 2013 Dusty comments this morning indicate that he definitely is considering olivo over mesoraco. Doug Gray February 25, 2013 He also noted how that a non roster guy really has to play well to make the team because it means they have to cut someone. I will never understand the idea that spring training can get someone a job. The talent you play, even on an inning to inning basis, is incredibly uneven in the same game, much less in different games. The sample sizes are INCREDIBLY small. Guys are getting what, 65 at bats in the spring, tops? Great, that is two weeks worth of regular season playing time. That is more important than the 1500+ at bats these guys have as professionals that tell us what they are more likely to be? Or for pitchers, they get what, 15-20 innings of practice? I never will understand it. It doesn’t make sense. Never has. Never will. ChrisSD February 25, 2013 Doug, I think the first reason that people can win jobs in spring training is tradition. Second what if you have 4 players for 2 position and based on their past performances they are equally deserving. Third I think it keeps everyone working hard. Chris Doug Gray February 25, 2013 The odds that you have four guys of all equal past performance is incredibly unlikely. While it may be tradition, it is still a poor idea. It could keep everyone working hard, or at least those working for the remaining spots. BobcatRedsFan February 26, 2013 The guy you cut to keep a non-roster invitee is someone who has underwhelmed in the system for a period of time. So it rarely ever is a meaningful loss. And I believe you can tell a lot about a player in Spring Training, but not by the box score. If you don’t go about your business in a professional way, it will show up with the people around you everyday. No one cuts anyone for not hitting or throwing well in ST. You cut a guy because he’s out of shape or not running out pop-ups. You cut a guy because he has no more control at the end of ST then he had at the start of it. You cut a guy because his velocity is tanking. I know you aren’t advocating going with a set roster before the start of Spring Training, Doug. That would be crazy. Doug Gray February 26, 2013 I am absolutely advocating that. Going about your business is something that you know about a player before he steps into Goodyear. I feel like there is eons more data that is valuable by looking at what a player did in 2012 than what they did for four weeks in March 2013. MK February 25, 2013 I have great hope for Devin but maybe another year playing at Louisville with Corky would benefit him in the long run. I remember when the Reds acquired George Foster in 1971, due to the injury to Bobby Tolan, all signs said he was ready but he wasn’t. He started in ’71 was a part-timer in ’72 and after two full years in the big leagues he went back to the minors in ’73, got his game together and the rest is history. Olivo might be better suited as a back-up as well. I think Mez tried to hard when he got a shot and played a little tight, which is understandable. BobcatRedsFan February 26, 2013 I think Devin can eventually hit better. His approach at the plate has always been sound, he just hasn’t always been very productive. I don’t blame anyone but him for his struggles last season because other guys did well in the limited time. I just don’t think he ever becomes a middle of the order bat. After Grandal’s suspension I was grateful we had traded him already. But with Tucker Barnhart looking like a switch-hitting version of Hannigan and Fleury’s lack of development, I think Mesaraco is the battery mate for our pitchers in the coming seasons even if his bat never becomes anything special. rgslone February 25, 2013 I wonder how much, if any, that a players proverbial “makeup” is factored into the rankings? Hamilton, for example, has incredible speed; but his defense in CF and his hit tool are still question marks. Without further development and improvement in those areas I wouldn’t be so high on him. But when I consider the reports regading his makeup, then I get pretty excited about his potential. The things I read here and other places indicate that Hamilton has a drive to learn and keep getting better (like a “sponge” I think Eric Davis said); and knows he needs, and is actively working, to improve his OBP so he can use his speed. And when people in the know make these statemnts about him they don’t seem contrived or simply standard baseball rhetoric. Not to beat a dead (or at least no longer available) horse, but this is just the opposite of the vibe I always got regarding Stubbs. So, again, I wonder how much the ranking of a guy like Hamilton is boosted by his attitude, makeup, or whatever you want to call it? Doug Gray February 25, 2013 Very little in my opinion. While it is something that people look at when evaluating players, they are looking at their tools a lot more. wally February 25, 2013 Doug I will be at the game today and will report back to you As far as ranking so sorry to beat this death. I dislike them very much, my personal view. You are good as you last at bat and you last pitch. I do not like guys to get comfortable or uncomfortable while looking at guys that have no clue about the talent in an organization . Its so easy to rank a guy 1-20 and then back up on your view because he has a bad week month or season. Its garbage and Doug I really agree with you opinion about non roster players in spring training. I also want to add that a factor that determines that is political and a money issue. Its very very very difficult for say a 30th round pick that is as talented as anyone on the field to get that break, that is just the way it is . Baseball is a good ol boys club and scout, scouting directors do not like to have mud on their face, thats why I love the ballsy GM’s that say screw everyone and play the guys that are the better players. Its a difficult business Ill be at the game and will give you a honest days work Doug Gray February 25, 2013 Anyone who changes a guys ranking for a week or a month of bad performance shouldn’t be ranking anyone. A bad year though? Yeah, that changes things. You need to look at why they had a bad year though, because THAT is what matters. Did they have a bad year because at this level they can’t hit a located breaking ball? Or did they have a bad year because their BABIP was .230, but they still walked, struck out and had the same power rates as they have always had? Those are two very different things that will severely alter the ranking of a player for me. I don’t know of a single GM out there who “plays the better players”, because the better players, particularly at the lower levels, are almost always going to be the older guys. But they aren’t always the guys who are going to be the better big leaguers. There are very few 30th rounders that are as talented as anyone on the field. They went in the 30th round for a reason and unless they had a serious change in talent level, it is probably not good to expect them to do a whole lot. But still, plenty of those guys do get their chances to play every day when they perform. The Reds have been littered with guys like that. Steve Selsky was the teams Hitter of the Year last season. 33rd rounder. Danny Dorn was pushed aggressively as a 32nd rounder before stalling out in AAA. El’Hajj Muhammad got invited to Redsfest last year and despite being a 49th rounder (which doesn’t even exist anymore), has been given a shot because his stuff wound up being a little better than advertised on draft day and he got results on the field. But when guys show the skillset, they get their chances. But being productive isn’t always the skillset they are looking for. Being a good hitter in rookie ball doesn’t always translate forward and at times, you can tell that before sending them up. Guys with big bonus money will be given more chances than guys without it, but if you show real talent, they are going to find a way to play you. wanderinredsfan February 25, 2013 Love, absolutely love, the podcast venture. Podcasts are the perfect medium for dissemination of thoughts and ideas that are difficult to convert to a written format, especially when internet surfers are less likely to read a half-hour of conversation. I spend a lot of time on the road listening to numerous baseball podcasts (fangraphs, BA, etc.), and have always been disappointed by the lack of Cincy content. Hopefully this will alleviate those feelings a bit. Doug Gray February 25, 2013 Yeah, I am with you. Every Wednesday I am on the road for 4-5 hours and am often in the search for a podcast or three to listen to while on the road. I have always been a fan of the Redleg Nation podcasts and talking with Chad about them in the past kind of gave me the idea to see if we could team up to do something. Chad and the other guys over there were welcoming to the idea, so I started looking into options and well, here we are. wally February 25, 2013 so guys like Andy Petite ,Mike Piazza and dozens of more are just an aberration . Doug I 100% agree with you that the higher draft players are their for a reason, but please do not misguide your readers to thinking that these scouts and company are untouchable. They are wrong more then rite and to be honest with you I have been part of that world and so many guys could not recognize talent if it hit them in the face. I am not being confrontational but I ask you if you have ever played this game at any level. If yes then I have some additional comments, The reason why I say this is I have coached scouted and played this game . It is my life. come to think of it I need to get a life (hahah) but in all seriousness. Guys mature at different times , guys peak ay different times. You never sometimes do not get the same player you drafted. So many factors Attitude (hello Yorman) work ethic and a dozen other factors. I have seen guys who were good solid college players , that matured physically and mentally that they took of in the minors. I really have strong feelings on this subject Doug one more comment please please please do not be so naive about playing time. The guys that get the playing time are the guys that have been paid. So how much of a chance does that 10th rounder or 20th rounder get. The clubs use these guys like pimps and then move on to the next guy. These fillers as we call them are just being used and abused. Some clubs are smart enough to recognize the talent without the tag of the round that they were drafted. Doug I watched the game today and was happy with Gallarga and Marshall and Broxton(man does Broxton look out of shape) all three guys know how to pitch and I think Gallarga show cased himself well for the reds and other clubs Guillon is a young lefty that looked scared to death on the mound. at first could not throw a strike , then settled down . He has a tendency to hang his curve and he actually gave up a 3 run homer but the umpire missed the call , and he hung another curve that was hit to the track. Now let me say this I like his arm and I think he will do well next time out. I saw my two friends frm Pensacola pitch Partch and Serrano. Partch still suffers from control issue but boy does he throw hard. Serrano looked dynamite with an outstanding curve Doug Gray February 25, 2013 Yes, I played the game. I played it for 15 years. Stock February 25, 2013 20th rounders are usually pawns (or filler) but if a player performs he will get the chance regardless of when he is drafted. Hanigan is a perfect example. As for Meso it is the Reds short and long term interest to send him to Louisville this spring. The Reds have control of Meso for 6 major league years. They wasted one last summer. It makes no sense to waste another this year. They should send him to Louisville and let him rebuild his trade value and then trade him to get prospects or to fill a need come July or December. As an alternative they can trade Hanigan next winter and hand the job over to Meso next April. It just makes no sense to have both of them on the roster this summer. Again, weather he makes the roster is Jocketty’s decision. Knowing that Dusty will play Hanigan twice a week leaves Walt with no choice.