Tuesday news and notes

The Reds are back on the winning side of things as they picked up their first win of the spring. Derrick Robinson was the only minor leaguer to rack up a hit as he went 1-2 in the game. On the mound Ismael Guillon threw a hitless inning with 2 walks and a strikeout. Curtis Partch allowed 2 unearned runs in 2 innings with a walk and 3 strikeouts. Mark Serrano struck out 2 in a scoreless inning of work.

Dusty Baker has been impressed with Billy Hamilton’s transition to center field.

I’m pleasantly surprised at the routes he’s taken in the short period of time I’ve seen him. He’s been working hard with [coaches Billy Hatcher] and Eric Davis and Darren Bragg. It helps to be around other good outfielders, to hear them talk. Most of instruction is about listening and communication.

Not that there was anyone who was concerned that he couldn’t make the move to center, but it is nice to hear that he is already showing the right things against live hitting. While there isn’t much reason to think he needs to be ready soon with the outfield set at the big leagues, being ready sooner certainly leaves you with options in case something doesn’t work out as planned.

Fangraphs has up the full ZiPS projections. Some interesting projections for the minor league guys:

  • Billy Hamilton (over a full season) – .267/.330/.345 with 54 steals and 17 caught stealing.
  • Neftali Soto (over a full season) – 23 home runs.
  • Tony Cingrani 107 strikeouts and 43 walks in 107.1 innings.

You can see all of the projects at the Fangraphs link above.

If Hamilton could provide that production, and be a slightly above-average defender in center that is probably a 2.5-3.5 win player depending on the rest of his base running value that he provides outside of the steals. While Hamilton isn’t likely to get the chance to show us what he can do in the Majors this year, especially in the first half of the season, the projections on him are certainly interesting. He and Cingrani are the only guys who have projections that give them solid value for a full season in 2013. The projection systems aren’t always that kind to players without a track record in the Major Leagues and even with Major Leaguers they are often a little conservative in my opinion (except the “Bill James” projections which aren’t actually done by James, but just included in his book by STATS, which are often very optimistic for position players).

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Doug Gray is the owner and operator of this website and has been running it since 2004 in one variation or another. You can follow him on twitter @dougdirt24, contact him via email here or follow the site on Facebook. and Youtube.