Boy, wouldn’t this news have been great 10 years ago: Mark Prior is in camp with the Reds. As reported by John Fay, he apparently called Dusty and asked for a chance and it was granted to him. Last season he pitched with the Red Sox AAA team and posted a 3.96 ERA in 25 innings. That came with 23 walks and 38 strikeouts though. Apparently there is still some stuff there by checking out the strikeout rate, but the control seems to be a big issue. I am going to go back and look at some video on Milb.tv this afternoon and see what he has left.
update on Prior
I am watching his game from June 5, 2012 right now. He was working 88-92. His curveball still can be very good, but it was not quite as good a few times in this game. The control looked decent, but this might have been one of his “on” games given he had 5 strikeouts in 2 innings. He seems to be short arming the ball a little bit, but I haven’t gone back to see if he did that when he was healthy either.
I got into an interesting debate about the usage of Devin Mesoraco over the past 36 hours. I know that we strangely enough debate this topic on the site probably twice a month, but I actually sat down and ran some numbers. I am going to actually get into some of that now. But first, let’s start with some talking points.
- Ryan Hanigan is an excellent catcher who is lauded for his handling of pitchers, ability to catch/block/frame anything and has a strong and accurate arm. He was the primary catcher for the Reds #1-3 starters in the rotation as well as Aroldis Chapman.
- Devin Mesoraco is by advanced catching defensive stats a good pitch framer, but not as good as Hanigan (only 2-3 guys are). He has a strong and accurate arm and also rated out as a solid pitch blocker. He was the primary catcher for the Reds #4 and 5 pitchers and was often pulled in the second half when Chapman came into the game (usually in a double switch scenario).
As I have stated before, I really don’t like catchers ERA. One of the big reasons is what I laid out above. Guys catch different pitchers and that can really play a big role in the “ERA” of a catcher. Still, it is often a very strong point brought up in the Mesoraco/Hanigan playing time debates. What I did was look at the relievers splits with each catcher though, since both guys caught them all year long. I looked at only pitchers with 30 innings pitched or more in the bullpen (that means no Broxton and no late season call ups, but everyone else is included). I also included the numbers for all relievers with 30 innings, excluding Aroldis Chapman. I did that because as noted earlier, Ryan Hanigan wound up with a whole lot more innings with him than Mesoraco did and that is most certainly going to skew things like ERA and strikeouts in his favor given how dominant Chapman was. Here are the numbers:
| All Relievers with 30+ IP including Aroldis Chapman | ||||||
| Catcher | ERA | K% | nIBB-BB% | K/nIBB | CS% | Pitchers w/better ERA |
| Catcher A | 3.25 | 26.4% | 9.1% | 2.90 | 30.0% | 4 |
| Catcher B | 2.44 | 27.2% | 9.2% | 2.95 | 37.5% | 3 |
| All Relievers with 30+ IP excluding Aroldis Chapman | ||||||
| Catcher | ERA | K% | nIBB-BB% | K/nIBB | CS% | Pitchers w/better ERA |
| Catcher A | 3.22 | 24% | 9.2% | 2.61 | 30% | 4 |
| Catcher B | 3.02 | 22% | 9.4% | 2.35 | 44% | 2 |
In the top chart, there is a big gap in ERA between the two catchers. Their walk rates and strikeout rates are nearly identical though. Catcher A also holds the advantage in a better ERA with more pitchers, 4-to-3. In the bottom chart, there is still a bit of an ERA gap, but it is much closer than before. We also see that Catcher A now has a better strikeout rate, retains his better walk rate and better K/BB rate as well as extends his lead of a better ERA with the pitchers to 4-to-2.
You guys are pretty smart, so I know that you know which catcher is which here. But when looking at this data, it certainly doesn’t seem as clear as to which guy is truly a “great defensive catcher” versus “the other guy” who isn’t allowed to catch some of our guys is it?
So with this being the final year of Hanigans contract i guess we will find out for sure in 2014 if Mesoraco is the future. If they dont re-sign Hanigan then Mesoraco needs more playing time this year. But i can see them re-signing him to a 2-3 year deal and wasting Mesoraco.
They still have control over Hanigan for 2014, but his last year of arbitration eligibility will be expensive. Another good year and he would probably be looking at $6 million.
Worth every penny for a catcher in this market.
What do the numbers look like with Homer? Mes early in season and Han late in season.
This comes up often, but I don’t like it. Here is why: for his career, Homer Bailey has an ERA under 3.00 in September. That is when Hanigan caught most of his innings. Bailey in his career from April-August has an ERA of 5.52. Here is what I do know…. heading into August, Homer Bailey had an ERA of 3.52. He has never come close to being that good before to that point in the season. That was with Mesoraco. Then for a few game stretch, Bailey got hit around a little bit and his ERA went up before going back down at the end of the year, like it always does.
Guess we can all use the numbers to support our own particular point of view. Inherent problem with stats. Don’t suppose that will ever change.
Some numbers are a whole lot better than other numbers though. I wanted to avoid using trends in things. It is like blaming Mesoraco for Latos in April. Latos always sucks in April. His ERA is near 6.00 in April for his career. Every other month of his career it is under 4.00. So why would anyone use April as a barometer for Latos if one guy only has a sample from April? That doesn’t make much sense. Just like with Bailey. Dude is historically lights out in September. So when the sample for one guy is mostly from September, why would we use that data? The data there is bad.
I tried to avoid that. Both guys caught the relievers all year long (well, Mesoraco through mid August at least). Both guys caught them in all months, so any spikes in performance were likely felt by both parties. It attempts to avoid using bad data, such as a Latos April that always sucks or a Bailey September which always kicks major butt.
Can someone decode the A and B, unlike you all I am not smart.
I guess I’m confused how excluding Chapman lowers both’s ERA.
Let me double check the numbers….
The post is now fixed. I manually changed the IP in the original calculation (from 224.65 to 224.67). So when I deleted Chapman’s line from each, it kept the same IP totals with him, but just erased his ER. So it lowered both guys, when it shouldn’t have. Thanks for catching that (see what I did there?).
Doug,
While the numbers are what they are, I disagree with the notion that a study of the relievers is the way to study the catching. Catching as a whole is best studied using starter data, not reliever data. The reason is that you are now excluding the long range planning of pitches through a game for an individual player. Hanigan may work a player away all game just to set him up for an inside pitch later in the game. The calling of pitches for relievers is much less cerebral. Also relievers usually have less pitches and locations within their comfort zones.
I understand you think think is the only way to impartially compare the two, but I think you are doing a disservice to them both.
Hanigan is by far the better catcher defensively, period. Rather than building up Mes into something I think he is not. Try convinving me how far off the floor he is. Compare him to other catchers in the league. Show me that he was better in the second half than the first half (which I think he was).
Bottom line for me is Hanigan is better and should start. Mes should garner about the same playing tim, but should be as you said previously started where matchups play to his strengths. I agree this year he should not be starting just one or two of the starters. He should start against LHP and in short porch stadiums. Hanigan should start in bigger parks or against running teams.
Well it is flat out impossible to compare the two guys with starters since they didn’t really catch all of the same guys. Hanigan is the better defender. No argument there. But I don’t think it is as big as some people make it out to be (literally have had the argument said that Hanigan is the best in baseball and Mesoraco is one of the worst in baseball).
Maybe it was offense that separated these two more than defense. Hanigan was batting over 300 for most of the year while Mes was in the low 200s. That lead to more playing time for Hanigan and less for Mes which made things even worse for Mes.
I don’t think Mes’s defense or pitch calling is bad, even though I do remember some brutal passed balls last year.
Stats just come up short in trying to compare catcher’s defense and pitch calling so I’m ok trusting the coach’s decisions on this one.
I guess I have to ask where pitch calling would show up if it weren’t in say, ERA, walks or strikeouts?
I don’t think pitch calling shows up in stats, I could call the greatest game ever but if the pitcher misses locations or doesn’t execute the pitches correctly it doesn’t matter what I called.
That’s why I’d prefer to trust the pitchers and coaches tell me who is good at calling a game rather than stats.
But over the long haul of a season, guys missing their spots and hitting their spots, assuming you are working with the same pitchers, is going to even out.
The practice of the personal catchers needs to stop. The team gets handcuffed a bit when the only determination as to who catches a particular day is who is on the mound. All the catchers should get games with each pitcher with some offensive considerations built in as to who starts (Mez against certain lefties for instance). If Hanigan were to miss some time, then Mez/Olivo would be at a disadvantage lacking experience with the majority of the starters.
Agree. Could you imagine trying to catch Arroyo for the first time in a season? Could be a very long night behind the plate.
Forget the stats did youth watch them play?
But statistically, Mes gave up 6 more stolen bases and threw out 22 less in less than half the games played. But the big stat for me was the 13 wild pitches compared to 17 for Hanigan in those same games with an equal number of passed balls. These things might have something to do with pitchers but not in this disparity.
On Prior, I was at a clinic where pitching guru Tom House spoke. In college Prior was a student of House’s pitching school. This was a time when Prior had just been drafted by the Cubs. House said Prior would never have arm problems due to his perfect mechanics. Oops.
If we aren’t looking at the same pitchers on the mound, then SB/CS doesn’t matter much. Cueto has allowed what, 1 steal in two years and has a ton of pickoffs? He is going to shut down the running game on his own. Bailey on the flip side is notably slow to the plate and guys have typically run on him well. That alone skews some of the numbers.
Mesoraco does block the ball as well as Hanigan. Hanigan is fantastic. Mesoraco simply is ok at it.
At the end of the day, what I am mostly trying to say is this: Hanigan is a better defender than Mesoraco is, but the difference isn’t really showing up big time in the numbers. Our pitchers are good with both guys because our pitchers are really stinkin’ good.
With Prior, I always heard about his perfect mechanics too. I would love a time machine to go back and ask what they meant when they said that. In hindsight, I always wondered if they just meant that he repeated his mechanics perfectly. Because knowing what we know now, that elbow going over the shoulder is bad news bears.
Is prior still inverting his elbow?
I would like to see him get his mojo back, but I think the only way he can be valuable is as a reliever. I sure hope he doesn’t take away starter innings from other deserving players.
He has only made 6 starts in 40 appearances in the minors over the last 3 years. I doubt he will be getting any time starting. I didn’t slow down the video to see the exact point of his elbow in relation to his shoulder. But it was close either way. He certainly wasn’t loading behind his back.
I think the point that needs to be made is that were not comparing two finished products here. We’re comparing a finished product in Hanigan and a kid with a much higher up side then where he’s at. We know what we have in Hanigan. He’s a solid big league catcher and has done a nice job with the Reds. But a couple years ago the table were turned and he was the guy getting less time to Hernandez, who was not as good defensively but better offensively. Hernandez’s defense was “good enough” with his offense. Mesoraco has the potential to be a middle of the order guy as well as an above average defensive catcher. Anyone want to guess who the last catcher the Reds was that you could say that about (starts with a “B”). But the point is that all young guys have adjustment periods. If they come up and start from the beginning they adjust quicker. If they play every 3rd or 4th day they not only take longer to adjust but also add in a lot more pressure when they’re in there because they feel like they can’t make a mistake. Even if they bomb, you know it sooner rather then later. Dusty needs to stop acting like he invented the game and let the kid play.
Doug enjoyed the comparison. Want to see Mez eventually become a great player. That said No Way do I give him the bulk of the playing time over a guy who has performed as well as Hanigan. As far as who catches who I’m sure the players have expressed ther preference to Dusty based on their comfort level with each as well as performance. I’m also certain Price has much Imput in to decision as well. This team won 97 games with the current rotation. If it ain’t broke I ain’t fixin it. Mez ts hicould make it better but it could be worse. Hanigan does a great job behind the dish. Until he loses the job Is.
So you would stick with Leake over Chapman in the rotation? That was the rotation that won 97 games.
Leaker didn’t have the season Hanigan had. Not even close as a good comp.
Doug enjoyed the comparison. Want to see Mez eventually become a great player. That said No Way do I give him the bulk of the playing time over a guy who has performed as well as Hanigan. As far as who catches who I’m sure the players have expressed ther preference to Dusty based on their comfort level with each as well as performance. I’m also certain Price has much Imput in to decision as well. This team won 97 games with the current rotation. If it ain’t broke I ain’t fixin it. Mez ts hicould make it better but it could be worse. Hanigan does a great job behind the dish. Until he loses the job It’s his
Doug great breakdown, I am hopeful the catching will be close to a 50/50 split which will give Mesoraco more at bats and a chance to stay in a solid groove with the bat. I think Hanigan is a key guy on the team and might take over some of the leadership on team that Rolen had so Hanigan having 50 percent of time will still allow him to be a big leader on the team. Injuries of course could swing this either way, I am hopeful Mes hitting so far this spring, will help with the decision to keep him at Major league level and not looking to keep Olivo and send Mez down. Louisville could be crowded with Major League veterans who might still have a little left in the tank.
This is ironically enough a great point about both the benefits of statistical evaluation and the value of its nemesis, subjective data, as well.
Doug’s eval. shows a statistical dead heat between the two catchers, to the surprise of most readers. Forget the validity of it for the moment. Just consider it data.
But an eval. may also include an organized survey of players, coaches scouts, and the management. My guess is there’d be stronger PRESENT favor to Hanigan, deservedly so, too. But factor in the org’s investment in Meso … the muddy waters begin ..
Plus, baseball being seductively complex, not to mention having a small interest in the business end of things :), the org has to think about the future as well as the present. So things get muddier.
My point: You need both, not one or the other. Without scouts judging both sides of the coin, there’d be no Meso. Without the intangible factor of heart and desire, there is no Hanigan. Without Doug, there are no statistical equalizers to keep us old schoolers honest, not to mention RML’s.
Great article!