There are a lot of things on tap for today that are worth talking about, so let’s jump right in.

SABR held their Analytical Conference last week and have started adding podcasts from the different forums/discussions/presentations. While I have probably listened to 6 hours worth of presentations, the one that I want to point you guys to is the Player Development Panel. It is just over an hour long and 58 MB to download (so you may not want to download it from a phone). One of the more interesting discussion points for me was when they discussed how to handle the workloads of guys in the minor leagues, especially within the first two seasons. Go download it and give it a listen when you get a chance. It is well worth it.

 

Tony Cingrani comes in at #69 on the Fangraphs list.

Tony Cingrani comes in at #69 on the Fangraphs list.

Marc Hulet at Fangraphs has up his Top 100 Prospects. He has four Reds on the list:

  • 30. Billy Hamilton – OF
  • 32. Robert Stephenson – RHP
  • 69. Tony Cingrani – LHP
  • 71. Daniel Corcino – RHP

Hulet is the highest I have seen on Stephenson thus far, but I think he is more right than everyone else. I just can’t buy into so many other pitchers being ranked higher than Stephenson on other lists. So I am glad to see that someone out there agrees with me on him heading into the 2013 season. Here is what Hulet had to say about Stephenson:

32. Robert Stephenson, RHP, Cincinnati: I don’t know why Stephenson doesn’t get more love but he’s a hard-throwing young pitcher with an impressive frame and two potentially-plus pitches (fastball, curveball). The delivery has improved and the repertoire is working itself out nicely.

I also find it a little funny that both “groups” of Reds were just separated by one spot. Former Red Didi Gregorius also cracks the list at 98.

Speaking of prospect lists, John Sickels is schedules to release his Top 120 Prospects later today. I will have a post about that in the afternoon for discussion.

Last night we had Redleg Nation Radio for the night owls at 11pm. We had scheduling conflicts this weekend and couldn’t work out a show time for Sunday when we normally have the show. You can listen below on the built in player, download the MP3 for later use, subscribe on iTunes and have it sent directly to your iOS device/computer. Chad Dotson from RedlegNation.com and I discussed Todd Frazier and what to expect from him in 2013, Aroldis Chapman once again now that he has come out and said he prefers to be in the bullpen while the pitching coach and GM have other ideas and two minor spring training battles.

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Doug Gray is the owner and operator of this website and has been running it since 2004 in one variation or another. You can follow him on twitter @dougdirt24, contact him via email here or follow the site on Facebook. and Youtube.

29 Responses

  1. fromcubawithluv

    “He’s also close to MLB ready with three average-or-better pitches.” – Cingrani

    Really? I keep hearing that his secondary stuff is below average.

  2. fromcubawithluv

    on Yorman, 3 bb and 6 k so far. Both of those numbers are high for 20 pa. Is there a way to know if he is taking more pitches? If he is actually swinging less, this could be really good. If it is just a small sample than, I am annoyed with being teased :)

    • Doug Gray

      Really, there isn’t a way to know aside from having listened and tracked the games by pitch.

  3. MK

    Do the Reds take a more conservative approach to the development of their pitchers than other organizations? Especially high school draftees. Maybe this is why Stephenson is getting less respect than some other pitching prospects of similar stature.

    Cuba, the comment on Cingrani are why many of these prognostications are a bunch of bull.

    • Alan Horn

      I agree. Wally, where are you? First off, a lot of these guys never played the game(if so, not at a high level). Second, the prognostications are their opinion which is very subjective. I like hind sight. It is always 20/20.

    • Doug Gray

      In the past few years they have bee more conservative with their high school pitchers than other teams. After JC Sulbaran’s struggles at 19 in Dayton, the Reds have basically been saying behind the scenes that they don’t want to send high school guys there right out of the gate.

  4. Stock

    Great podcast. A couple of things stuck out to me.

    Although I believe Olivo was brought in to be Hannigan’s backup Devin has come out thus far and made a statement. 1 strikeout in 16 PA is fantastic. 2/1 HR/K ratio is fantastic. 1/2 K/BB ratio is fantastic. Olivio on the other hand has 8 K’s in 18 PA. Meso will be in Cincinnati this April.

    I love Yorman’s 15% BB% this spring. Much better than the 4% he had last year. He is striking out more to (to the point where it is unacceptable) but this could be as a result of working the count more (which is good) or not being ready for the level of competition he is facing. I am pumped nonetheless.

    I know it is only ST but I have been impressed with Frazier and Donald thus far.

    I have no problem with Stephenson being ranked 50-60. I looked at the mlb.com to 50 prospects and 6 of them started their season in rookie ball. Five of the six prospects were all in the top 11 picks of the 2012 draft (Buxton-2, Correa-1, Almora-6, Zimmer-5 and Russell-11). The 6th was Anthony Rendon. That is pretty good company.

  5. sultan of swaff

    I just have a better feeling than most about Cingrani, and a little worse feeling about Corcino. They seem to be moving in opposite directions. This season will go a long ways in telling us how the 2014 Reds rotation will shake out.
    Looking into my crystal ball, I’ll predict Leake gets traded (arb $$$ going up), Corcino moves into the swingman role (can’t throw enough strikes to start), and Cingrani takes Arroyo’s place in the rotation along with Cueto/Latos/Bailey/Chapman.

    On Stephenson—I think the lack of innings/exposure has dinged him a bit. We’ll have to expect the same treatment for Travieso. It would be cool if Travieso could plow thru Rookie ball and end up making a few starts for Dayton.

    • MK

      Sultan, I don’t get the “moving in opposite directions” comment meaning Corcino is digressing? Just what makes you think this is happening. I see them both improving. Of course Cingrani is a year older but both will be at the top of a Louisville roster.

    • The Duke

      Corcino uses 3 pitches already and has shown good control in the past. I think him skipping a level was tougher than they thought. I think his walk rate comes back down this year. Even last year he stolid had an ERA just over 3 as a 21 year old in AA. Corcino > Cingrani imo, at least as a starter.

    • Doug Gray

      I have heard that the plan with Travieso is quite similar to the one for Stephenson was last year. Start him in Billings, and if he shows something, send him to Dayton to finish out his season. Obviously that all depends on how well he produces, but I have heard that plan talked about in regards to him.

      • Alan Horn

        That is a good plan for a guy straight out of high school. Take it slow and let him build his arm strength up. It is too easy to blow out a arm already without the added pressure of rushing them.

      • Doug Gray

        I certainly don’t want to rush anyone, but I think it should be handled on a case by case basis. With a guy like Travieso, it makes perfect sense. He only started his final year in high school. Be cautious with his arm and the workload you put on it. With Stephenson, I think they were probably a little too cautious on the surface, but to be fair, the Reds know a lot more about his background and what their plan was for him in extended spring training compared to what he would have been able to do in Dayton from April 2012-June 2012.

      • MK

        You know unlike with a guy like Bailey, there isn’t really a need with the big league team for a starter. You have 6 big league starters now, a couple of guys on the cusp, so there might not be a need for Stephenson for three years. So protect his arm and bring him along conservatively.

  6. DaveCT

    Travieso may already be a higher risk guy, as just two seasons ago, he only threw something like 19 innings.

    • Doug Gray

      I am sure he is a high risk guy because of his background. At the same time, he has an incredibly fresh arm to work with too.

      I am sure he threw more than 19 innings though. He may have only had 19 innings for his high school team, but I am sure he threw for another team that year as well.

  7. WallyP

    guys sorry I was in AZ but had to come home (family ) Anyway Alan dont get me started. I feel strong about this. Hey I have had a ball watching the WBC. Love team Italy and the story , loved what team Spain did in the classic. Not easy to play against DR, PR and VZ and be competitive. and finally love the job the Netherlands did. Oh by the way a great well written blog by Paco. Oh also nice job Manno, you did the Reds proud. I have a feeling we will be hearing his name a bunch this season

    • Alan Horn

      Wally, it’s great to hear the updates on spring games from everyone. The game times are tough on me(I’m on C.S.T.). I go in to work at 7:00 A.M., so I can’t get the
      box score of games like tonight until the next day. In that respect Florida ST was better for me. I think you are on E.S. T. , so it may be even worse for you.

  8. Josh

    Drafting Travieso was a mistake, the Reds ABSOLUTELY should have snagged Wacha at number 14. They will regret that decision

    • Doug Gray

      Don’t get me wrong, I like Wacha, but it is awfully early to say that it was a mistake to draft anyone in favor of anyone else at this point. Let’s look at things between the two guys right now:
      Fastball velocity – It isn’t close. As starters, Travieso blows him away. In the bullpen, Wacha brings it closer, but still lags behind.
      Change up – Huge advantages for Wacha and it isn’t close. Wacha has an outstanding change up and Travieso is really just learning his.
      Breaking ball – This isn’t close either. Travieso has a potentially above-average breaking ball with his slider. Wacha, despite being older, has two well below-average breaking balls and all reports suggest neither will ever be more than an average pitch.

      So from a pure stuff side of things, I think that Travieso has a clear advantage. Now, we can get into other things such as control where Wacha is very strong and we just don’t know enough statistically to say one way or the other with Travieso, or that Wacha has shown that he can handle a season, at least in college, where he can throw 130 innings while we don’t know that for Travieso.

      I feel like I can make an argument for either guy, which tells me that neither was a mistake.

      • MK

        Development philosophy. I can teach a change-up, I can teach a breaking ball, I can’t teach velocity.

      • Doug Gray

        Yeah. While that certainly doesn’t hold true for everyone, it does for a lot more guys than it doesn’t.

  9. DaveCT

    I don’t worry too much about where Traveiso may end up, either in a rotation or the pen somewhere, hopefully in the ML’s. it is the perennial question for any HS pit her, will his arm hold up, so he does fall into the drafting risk equation, tho perhaps a bit higher of a risk. I think Doug s point of his being a fresh arm is an good one. Muck akin to some thought that the Latin kids arms have lower mileage on them than lots of US kids

  10. Justin

    i feel like the reds had the depth in the majors as far as starters go and have a couple of starting prospects on the cusp of going to the majors. the front office would rather go with upside or polish. i believe Traveiso has the upside to be dominant while Wacka is more of a chris leake type prospsect!! i like the reds decision to go with upside while there is no rush for Traveiso to develop quickly. he can take his time and once he is major league ready guys like cueto, chapman, arroyo will most likely be gone

    • Doug Gray

      Wacha has more upside than Leake does, better fastball/#2 pitch combo (change for Wacha), but upside wise, he just doesn’t touch Travieso. Much higher floor given he was a college guy and all.

  11. MK

    Optioned to Louisville LHP Tony Cingrani and RHP Daniel Corcino; optioned to Pensacola RHP Kyle Lotzkar and RHP Josh Ravin; optioned to Bakersfield RHP Carlos Contreras and OF Yorman Rodriguez; optioned to Dayton LHP Ismael Guillon; reassigned to minor league camp RHP Nick Christiani, RHP Chad Rogers, C Nevin Ashley, IF Kristopher Negron and OF Ryan LaMarre.

    NO SURPRISES

    • Stock

      4/4

      vs TOL
      6:35 PM

      5

      vs TOL
      6:35 PM

      6

      vs TOL
      2:05 PM

      7

      vs TOL
      2:05 PM

      8

      vs COL
      6:35 PM

      9

      vs COL
      6:35 PM

      10

      vs COL
      6:35 PM

      11

      @ TOL
      5:00 PM

      12

      @ TOL
      7:00 PM

      13

      @ TOL
      6:00 PM