Today it has been speculated that Aroldis Chapman is moving back to the closers role. Among a lot of the heated talk over such a move, someone pointed out that the last four Reds top prospects according to Baseball America have all been “jerked around” and that the Cincinnati Reds have had a tough time working with the whole idea of winning now and making good decisions for the future. Let’s talk about this for a second on a player by player basis.
Edit: Dusty Baker and Walt Jocketty have both come out since and stated that no decision has been made and one won’t be announced today.
After 2008 Baseball America named Yonder Alonso as the Reds #1 prospect. He was a first baseman who could hit, but he was behind some guy named Votto who had just put up a very strong season at the Major League level in his rookie season. The Reds had a problem of having two quality first baseman. Eventually, once Alonso seemed “ready” .296/.364/.478 in two seasons with Louisville the Reds asked the more athletic and more experienced (albeit limited experience) Joey Votto to move to left field so they could retain Yonder Alonso. Joey Votto said no and Alonso played sparringly in left field in 2011, hitting .330/.398/.545 and playing poor defense out of position before the Reds had to trade him. They used him in a package to land an elite level starting pitcher, and you can certainly make the argument that minor leaguers are useful as trade parts and no one should argue with you on that point. But the Reds wavered on what to do with Alonso and let another players refusal to try something dictate what happened to another player. He never was given a chance to start for the Reds.
After the 2009 season Baseball America named Todd Frazier as the top prospect in the system. While that ranking may have been strongly tied to his playing second base at the time, he was coming off of a good offensive season as well at the Double-A level. Frazier did take a step backwards at Triple-A the next year before rebounding some in 2011 where he spent some time with the Reds, playing third, left, short, second and third base. In 2012 he was also with the Reds, spending time at third base and left field, but was the back up in each situation though it did work out to give him ample playing time. However he was playing behind a veteran Scott Rolen at third base who was having a horrible offensive season. He was also behind Ryan Ludwick in left, who was barely hitting .200 through May. Frazier has moved all around for the Reds before he seems to finally be getting his shot, but perhaps only because Scott Rolen turned down an offer from the Reds to come back in a part time role.
After the 2010 season, Aroldis Chapman was ranked as the Reds top prospect. He was used as a starter in the first half of the season, but was put in the bullpen for Louisville in the second half to limit his innings. He was then used in the Reds bullpen down the stretch in 2010. The next year, despite the front office saying the plan was still to use him as a starter in the future, he was used in the bullpen role where he was dominant. He then headed into 2012 competing for a rotation spot and was arguably the best starter in the spring. Injuries happened and the Reds put him back in the bullpen, again stating his future role was in the rotation. Here we are now in 2013 and Chapman went into the spring, looking for a starting rotation spot. He hasn’t been as good this spring as he was last, but his numbers are certainly stronger than that of his competition and Walt Jocketty has again said that he prefers Chapman in the rotation on several occasions. Yet it is being strongly “reported” today that Chapman is heading back to the bullpen. While the Reds haven’t made an official statement, they have certainly struggled to commit to a plan for the guy with arguably the best arm in baseball.
After the 2011 season Baseball America named Devin Mesoraco as the best prospect in the system. He had hit a combined .295/.374/.533 in 2010 and 2011 between Advanced-A, Double-A and Triple-A. He was also ranked as the top catching prospect in the game. He then went into the 2012 season with the Reds as the backup catcher and was limited to catching “his guys” and wasn’t given a chance to catch the entire rotation. He struggled with the backup role as he was limited to 10-12 at bats a week and wound up with just 165 at bats as a rookie. He has destroyed spring training pitching this year and again looks to be the backup catcher to Ryan Hanigan and by all indications, will still just catch “his guys”.
That is four years in a row of top prospects in the Reds organization, who to this point have yet to be given an actual shot to be a starting player at this point in time. Todd Frazier looks to bust that streak this season. It still begs the question though, have the Reds handled their top prospects correctly or have they wavered too much in the hopes of winning an extra game or two while delaying the future potential of the team for short term goals?
frazier was to make the team out of st last year then got sent down after they acquired a scrub bullpen pitcher. then they brought him up and he got sent down again the next day. the reds also jacked homer around for years.
To be fair, Simon wound up posting an ERA under 2.00 last season.
2.66
typo! Meant 3.00
MLB Chapman to the pen
That has since been disputed by the manager and GM of the team.
a baseball player needs to be committed to every pitch ,every at bat and every aspect of the game. Chap will fail as a starter if not committed. I do not want to debate the issue, I have my view, and thats if it aint broke dont fix it. I keep seeing the Joba comparison, and as a reds fans it terrifies me. Joba was 98-100 as a relief guy and tunred starter and at one point was 88-89 . Now days he is 92-93. Leave Chap in the pen. Again another great well written article. Doug you are officially my favorite blog in baseball. I wish everyone else played in the same ball park as you
The rotation is broken if it has Leake in it. The bullpen is among the best in the game, with or without Chapman.
Joba Chamberlain averaged 94.7 MPH last year. Which is right in line with what he has always averaged outside of his initial 24 innings in the Major Leagues.
Guess I must have dreamed about 2011 when Leake led the team in victories was second among Reds starters in innings pitched, ERA, and WHIP among a starting staff that included Cueto, Arroyo and Bailey. And although he had an off year last year he still started every time his spot came up on a championship team. I get it you assume Chapman will be a better starter, and you might be correct but it is unfair to say the rotation is broken if Leake is in it.
I just don’t feel confident in Leake at this point. While he isn’t bad, he isn’t good either. In 2011 he was very much the beneficiary of good BABIP luck, 28 points better than his career average. The rotation is much more broken with Leake in it than the bullpen is without Chapman in it. I think that no matter the decision, the Reds rotation and bullpen are going to be among the best in baseball. I just think that one decision is one without any reward, but also no risk, where as the other one has a little risk and a huge reward.
You point out his good luck on Babip in ’11. But ignore his bad luck on hr/fb and strand rate in ’12. His xFIP last year was sub 3.90. Everyone knows he is a solid 5 th starter. Good to know you think the rotation was broken last year. I think a lot of people would disagree with that.
I think this article should be called, Reds dealing with a surplus of talent. Sounds as if you would of rather traded away votto, hanigan, rolen, and a SP to make room for these prospects. No one in baseball could force the Reds to put in LF because he is the best 1st baseman in the league. The Reds have done a good job in my view getting talent into the system and also keeping that talent.
You can they made the playoffs last year b/c of the way they managed those 4 in particular. They get a rock solid #2SP thanks to Alonso, Frazier was amazing playing at both 1st and 3rd, Mez was a factor b/c they were able to trade Grandal, Chapman was an anchor for the Reds best pitching staff possibly ever. Maybe Frazier was better served getting more seasoning, allowing him to get better at multiple positions. Last year showed Mez was clearly not ready for a starting gig yet but he still should be a cog going foward. Alonzo had a pretty mediocre year in San Diego(even considering Petco). All this really means is that they had alot of talent already in the Bigs, it happens. It might take Mez a little longer to hit his potential but sometime you have to sacrifice for whats best for the team as whole.
While the surplus of talent certainly does play into it, I think a lack of a true plan is also at play. I wouldn’t have traded Votto. But I also would have told him “Look, we appreciate all of the hard work you put in to become a good defensive first baseman, but we have a way to make our team a lot better next year by having Alonso in our line up along with you. Unfortunately, he simply isn’t as athletic as you are, so we need you to play left field so we can have a better team.” That isn’t what happened. They said, ok Joey and did what they did. Don’t get me wrong, I think eventually it led to the best thing in acquiring Latos. But I think they initially failed at their first plan because they let a player dictate his role rather than what was best for the team.
Scott Rolen shouldn’t have been playing ahead of Frazier last year. Everyone knew it but Dusty. Fortunately, Scott was old enough to need plenty of time off, so Frazier actually got his time because of that.
You don’t have to trade Hanigan to play Mesoraco more. And nothing about last year suggests Mesoraco wasn’t ready to start. It suggested he wasn’t good in 10-12 at bats a week with no preferences shown toward playing him against pitchers who pitch to his strengths. The Reds were up 7 games in the middle of August in 2012. Why not see what Mesoraco can do with two or three weeks of playing 5 games a week down the stretch?
The Reds went into August 2011 7.5 games back and a few games under .500. Arroyo, Volquez and Wood were on their ways to finishing the season with ERA’s between 4.84 and 5.71. Sounds like a great time to see what Chapman could do in some starts. But they didn’t despite saying they still wanted him to start.
Alonso had no business being responsible for a votto move. And while they were 6.5 games up on the division then, doesnt mean they had nothing else to play for. They were a game away from having the best record which gives you a nice bonus going into the playoffs. I agree with the part about chapman, they blew it in from the beginning. He happened to have a better plan B than most though.
Also the asked Votto. It doesn’t matter how they asked. Even if he says yeah i dont think that made the team better, it just allowed Yonder to play. Also i dont think that their #1 plan was to have Votto in the outfield. You dont put arguably the best defensive 1st baseman at another position.
As for Mez i touched on it above, but he was almost on a free fall going into september. That is why the manager didn’t play him. Im not sure any manager who is serious about winning plays him that much down the stretch the way he was playing.
Ryan I think you made your arguments very well and I agree with you right down the line. Sometimes we lose track that the Reds are trying to win now every year and if that allows them to also develop players so be it if not so be that also. It is about WINNING now.
I think if you want Chapman to start, you need to delay it until mid-season then transition him, so this might be much ado about nothing. The problem as always is Dusty needing his precious security blanket and not wanting to give it up.
I guess the logical thing to do would be to transition Chapman mid-season while at the same time transitioning Cingrani to the bullpen.
But say Chapman closes all season. That would pretty much set his position in stone. At that point, wouldn’t the smart move be to trade the guy?
Really really hoping this is only the 1st step in the “Kris Medlen plan” and Chapman is only in the bullpen for a couple months. Walt cannot continue to let Dusty hold this club back.
Doug Chap throws harder then Joba no doubt but your stats are incorrect . we have Joba his first season with the yanks out of the pen average 95.7 with sometimes touch 99 100
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2692&position=P#pfxpitchvelocity
2008, his first full season, 95.2 MPH, though some of that was of course as a starter. Of course, as a starter he averaged 95.1 MPH (using Texas Leaguers Pitch F/X database). 2012, last season, 94.7 MPH. His slider was also the fastest of his career in 2012.
I really don’t get it, to me it’s a simple decision. Chapman has to be tried as a starter at some point. The plan keeps changing, you can’t do that if you want to win the world series. This team is built to win now. If you want to win now that means Leake is the long man and Broxton is the closer. I really don’t get how this is so hard. I don’t care what Dusty wants he isn’t the GM.
Chapman will be the closer and Leake will be the # 5 SP. This should be the scenario. Even scouts are impressed with Leake this ST, his ability to command 4 pitches and hit 92/93 MPH. Chapman wants to be in the 9th, very telling. Reds are a better team with Aroldis shutting the door, more dominant bullpen with Broxton and Marshall being set up men.
Gross.
First off I thought the Reds handled the Alonso situation very well. Votto was tried in LF while in the minors and failed miserably. The amount of work required to master LF would have taken away from his time to work on his hitting. I have no problem with Votto not wanting to move. The Reds tried Alonso in LF and 3B and it was very apparent neither position would work. They then turned around and traded Alonso and others for an ACE. What’s not to like. There is no way Alonso and Votto would have fared as well as Votto and Ludwick last year, offensively or defensively. No way Volquez would have fared as well as Latos. This trade maximized Alonso’s value which is exactly what you want from your prospects.
I have posted enough on this site the last year on Meso that I don’t need to go into it again.
Frazier played all over in the minors but Francisco was supposed to be the 3B of the future. You could argue that when Votto came back last summer that Frazier should have been a full time starter at 3B. Hard to argue with this but we all knew Dusty is loyal to a core and that just wasn’t going to happen. This same loyality in 2010 led us to a division title when in July most fans wanted Stubbs and Bruce sent to the minors. They turned their seasons around in August and helped lead the Reds to the post-season.
Finally, we come to Chapman. I am not convinced he is cut out to be a SP. He wasn’t very good in Louisville as a SP. That is not to say it isn’t worth looking into this spring. People just assume that since he is a great closer he will be a great SP. He lacks the command on his pitches necessary to survive as a SP with only two pitches. The speed of his fastball while still good doesn’t compare to that in the pen. The gap between him and Leake may not be enough to make much of a difference. Most importantly I think the gap between him and Arroyo will be very small. If the Reds are truly playing for the post-season this is what they should look at. Come October Cueto/Latos/Bailey/Arroyo will be the Reds SP. I am not so sure the Reds wouldn’t be better served with Chapman in the pen and every other man in the pen pushed back on spot.
If Chapman is moved to the pen you can add Hoover to your list as I think this ensures him going to Louisville. Then again, I wouldn’t consider the Reds treatment of Hoover as jerking him around but rather not having an opportunity for him in Cincinnati because of other commitments. If Chapman goes to the pen I think Simon will either be released or traded. There is just no room for Simon in Cincinnati, let alone Hoover.
Walt needs to put the slap-down on Baker’s insurrection. Just come out and state exactly what Chapman’s plan is to the world, and don’t waiver when Dusty starts to use the media to parlay favor.
BTW, Neftali Soto should probably read this post.
Soto is nowhere near the prospect Alonso was. Not close.
I think it was more along the lines of a guy being moved every last place they could possibly think of. The guy has played short, third, catcher, first and now maybe back to third.
Mark Prior – 1-IP, 1-K, 1-HBP 0- H, O-R
4 big league hitters faced – Reddick, Seth Smith, Young(hbp), Norris
Seen alot of pitchers throw last week in AZ, minors and majors. Pryor and Ravin were by far the liveist arms I seen, Chapmans start against SF he looked like he was not interested and got hit hard when he found the strike zone early.
Lutz looked really good at the plate and I also thought Mes looked really good