Last night I teamed up with Chad Dotson of RedlegNation.com for a new episode of Redleg Nation Radio. Give it a listen below. If you are looking to subscribe to the show, be sure you check it out on iTunes or you can subscribe via RSS to keep up to date for when we have a scheduled show coming up to listen live.
News and Notes
Is it time to get concerned with Ismael Guillon? He currently has 22 walks and 21 strikeouts in 12.1 innings pitched so far with 15 of those walks coming in the last 5 innings he has thrown. I will go on record and say that I am very concerned at this point. While his control was better last night than the 6 days ago, he still walked 6 batters in 1.2 innings pitched. Guillon has had control problems in the past, walking 46 hitters in 63 innings just two seasons ago. This year has clearly been much worse than that. Clearly there is a mechanical problem going on, but at this point you have to wonder if it isn’t also a mental issue as well. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him head back to extended spring training if he has another outing like the last two in order to just get a mental break and to work on his mechanics in a less stressful environment.
Early in the season we often see inflated or deflated season lines and more often than not it is a direct result of either an unsustainable high or low batting average on balls in play. Major League average BABIP is .300, but minor leaguers vary a little bit because some guys are better or worse than their competition, still you expect that most guys are going to fall into that .300 range whether it is pitchers or hitters. So, who are the hitters and pitchers who have been the most lucky or unlucky so far this season so far?
- Brent Peterson: .522 BABIP
- Juan Perez: .429 BABIP
- Bryson Smith: .385 BABIP
Peterson is hitting .400 at this point, so he shouldn’t be a surprise to be atop the list. Perez sitting at .429 with his BABIP is going to come down, likely to his career .300 range. Bryson Smith has a career .360 BABIP, so he may be one of those guys who can beat the .300 BABIP mark some, but he should still see some regression as the season moves forward, but it may not be nearly as much as some other guys.
- Josh Fellhauer: .136 BABIP
- Joe Hudson: .162 BABIP
- Travis Mattair: .167 BABIP
There isn’t any past data to look at for Joe Hudson, with this being his professional debut, but there is no reason to expect him to stay anywhere near this low. Josh Fellhauer has a career BABIP of .330 and his ball in play profile hasn’t changed. Expect a big rebound from him. Travis Mattair has a career BABIP of .321 and while he has been rather aggressive at the plate, perhaps part of the reason for a lower than expected BABIP, he should also see a big rebound in this category.
- Tony Cingrani: .158 BABIP
- Chad Rogers: .159 BABIP
- El’Hajj Muhammad: .167 BABIP
It is tough to say that Cingrani has been lucky given he has struck out more than half of the minor leaguers he faced this year, but his BABIP for his career is .291 so if he finds his way back to the minors, expect that to correct itself some. Chad Rogers has a career BABIP of .306 and El’Hajj Muhammad has a career BABIP of .320, so both guys should be in for some correction as well.
- Chris Manno: .545 BABIP
- Nick Christiani: .478 BABIP
- Robert Stephenson: .478 BABIP
When we start seeing guys having every other ball in play against them go for hits, we know that we are seeing some really bad luck and these three guys are all having that happen so far. Stephenson has seen his groundball rate up so far in 2013, which will give a small bump up in BABIP usually, but what is happening now is incredibly unsustainable. Chris Manno has actually had the ball in the air a ton this season (small sample size of course), which should actually lower his BABIP. Nick Christiani has had a BABIP of .345 in Louisville the last two years, so he may be one of those higher BABIP guys but he should still be in for a large correction.
|AVG||Brent Peterson (.400)||Yovan Gonzalez (.367)||Bryson Smith (.333)|
|OBP||Bryson Smith (.467)||Brent Peterson (.438)||Michael Gilmartin (.433)|
|SLG||Donald Lutz (.579)||Mike Hessman (.521)||Felix Perez (.491)|
|R||Donald Lutz (12)||Bryson Smith (10)||Gelalich/Arias (10)|
|2B||Juan Perez (6)||Yorman Rodriguez (5)||Donald/HRodriguez (5)|
|3B||Billy Hamilton (2)||Eight Players||Tied with 1|
|HR||Donald Lutz (5)||Mike Hessman (5)||4 tied with 3|
|RBI||Donald Lutz (12)||Yorman Rodriguez (11)||Devin Lohman (11)|
|SB||Billy Hamilton (13)||Junior Arias (7)||Jeff Gelalich (5)|
|BB%||Michael Gilmartin (20%)||Denis Phipps (15%)||Jesse Winker (14.7%)|
|K%||Yovan Gonzalez (3.3%)||Joe Hudson (4.5%)||Brodie Greene (6.1%)|
|Wins||Josh Smith (2)||Greg Reynolds (2)||A bunch of guys tied w/ 1|
|ERA||Tony Cingrani (0.00)||Yohan Pino (0.00)||Chad Reineke (0.61)|
|Innings||Greg Reynolds (22.1)||Carlos Contreras (20.2)||Cisco/Villarreal (19.0)|
|WHIP||Tony Cingrani (0.35)||Yohan Pino (0.55)||Chad Rogers (0.74)|
|BB%||Drew Cisco (1.4%)||Pedro Villarreal (2.7%)||James Allen (2.9%)|
|K%||Tony Cingrani (54.2%)||Robert Stephenson (33.8%)||Carlos Contreras (33.3%)|
|K/BB||Drew Cisco (22.0)||Tony Cingrani (13.0)||Yohan Pino (7.0)|
|GB%||Sal Romano (60%)||Greg Reynolds (56%)||Tim Crabbe (55%)|
|Saves||Curtis Partch (4)||Kevin Whelan (3)||Brooks Pinckard (2)|
|ERA||Justin Freeman (1.29)||Kevin Whelan (1.50)||Carlos Gonzalez (1.64)|
|Innings||Wes Mugarian (14.2)||Pat Doyle (12.2)||Joel Bender (12.1)|
|WHIP||Brian Pearl (0.75)||Carlos Gonzalez (0.82)||Pat Doyle (0.95)|
|BB%||Jake Johnson (1.9%)||Jesus Adames (2.5%)||Nick Christani (2.9%)|
|K%||Curtis Partch (43.8%)||Jose Arredondo (42.5%)||El’Hajj Muhammad (41.7%)|
|K/BB||Jake Johnson (11.0)||Nick Christiani (10.0)||Jesus Adames (8.0)|