Podcast

Last night I teamed up with Chad Dotson of RedlegNation.com for a new episode of Redleg Nation Radio. Give it a listen below. If you are looking to subscribe to the show, be sure you check it out on iTunes or you can subscribe via RSS to keep up to date for when we have a scheduled show coming up to listen live.

News and Notes

Is it time to get concerned with Ismael Guillon? He currently has 22 walks and 21 strikeouts in 12.1 innings pitched so far with 15 of those walks coming in the last 5 innings he has thrown. I will go on record and say that I am very concerned at this point. While his control was better last night than the 6 days ago, he still walked 6 batters in 1.2 innings pitched. Guillon has had control problems in the past, walking 46 hitters in 63 innings just two seasons ago. This year has clearly been much worse than that. Clearly there is a mechanical problem going on, but at this point you have to wonder if it isn’t also a mental issue as well. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him head back to extended spring training if he has another outing like the last two in order to just get a mental break and to work on his mechanics in a less stressful environment.

Early in the season we often see inflated or deflated season lines and more often than not it is a direct result of either an unsustainable high or low batting average on balls in play. Major League average BABIP is .300, but minor leaguers vary a little bit because some guys are better or worse than their competition, still you expect that most guys are going to fall into that .300 range whether it is pitchers or hitters. So, who are the hitters and pitchers who have been the most lucky or unlucky so far this season so far?

Luckiest Hitters

  • Brent Peterson: .522 BABIP
  • Juan Perez: .429 BABIP
  • Bryson Smith: .385 BABIP

Peterson is hitting .400 at this point, so he shouldn’t be a surprise to be atop the list. Perez sitting at .429 with his BABIP is going to come down, likely to his career .300 range. Bryson Smith has a career .360 BABIP, so he may be one of those guys who can beat the .300 BABIP mark some, but he should still see some regression as the season moves forward, but it may not be nearly as much as some other guys.

Unluckiest Hitters

  • Josh Fellhauer: .136 BABIP
  • Joe Hudson: .162 BABIP
  • Travis Mattair: .167 BABIP

There isn’t any past data to look at for Joe Hudson, with this being his professional debut, but there is no reason to expect him to stay anywhere near this low. Josh Fellhauer has a career BABIP of .330 and his ball in play profile hasn’t changed. Expect a big rebound from him. Travis Mattair has a career BABIP of .321 and while he has been rather aggressive at the plate, perhaps part of the reason for a lower than expected BABIP, he should also see a big rebound in this category.

Luckiest Pitchers

  • Tony Cingrani: .158 BABIP
  • Chad Rogers: .159 BABIP
  • El’Hajj Muhammad: .167 BABIP

It is tough to say that Cingrani has been lucky given he has struck out more than half of the minor leaguers he faced this year, but his BABIP for his career is .291 so if he finds his way back to the minors, expect that to correct itself some. Chad Rogers has a career BABIP of .306 and El’Hajj Muhammad has a career BABIP of .320, so both guys should be in for some correction as well.

Unluckiest Pitchers

  • Chris Manno: .545 BABIP
  • Nick Christiani: .478 BABIP
  • Robert Stephenson: .478 BABIP

When we start seeing guys having every other ball in play against them go for hits, we know that we are seeing some really bad luck and these three guys are all having that happen so far. Stephenson has seen his groundball rate up so far in 2013, which will give a small bump up in BABIP usually, but what is happening now is incredibly unsustainable. Chris Manno has actually had the ball in the air a ton this season (small sample size of course), which should actually lower his BABIP. Nick Christiani has had a BABIP of .345 in Louisville the last two years, so he may be one of those higher BABIP guys but he should still be in for a large correction.

 

Organizational Leaders

Position Players
Player Player Player
AVG Brent Peterson (.400) Yovan Gonzalez (.367) Bryson Smith (.333)
OBP Bryson Smith (.467) Brent Peterson (.438) Michael Gilmartin (.433)
SLG Donald Lutz (.579) Mike Hessman (.521) Felix Perez (.491)
R Donald Lutz (12) Bryson Smith (10) Gelalich/Arias (10)
2B Juan Perez (6) Yorman Rodriguez (5) Donald/HRodriguez (5)
3B Billy Hamilton (2) Eight Players Tied with 1
HR Donald Lutz (5) Mike Hessman (5) 4 tied with 3
RBI Donald Lutz (12) Yorman Rodriguez (11) Devin Lohman (11)
SB Billy Hamilton (13) Junior Arias (7) Jeff Gelalich (5)
BB% Michael Gilmartin (20%) Denis Phipps (15%) Jesse Winker (14.7%)
K% Yovan Gonzalez (3.3%) Joe Hudson (4.5%) Brodie Greene (6.1%)
Starters
Player Player Player
Wins Josh Smith (2) Greg Reynolds (2) A bunch of guys tied w/ 1
ERA Tony Cingrani (0.00) Yohan Pino (0.00) Chad Reineke (0.61)
Innings Greg Reynolds (22.1) Carlos Contreras (20.2) Cisco/Villarreal (19.0)
WHIP Tony Cingrani (0.35) Yohan Pino (0.55) Chad Rogers (0.74)
BB% Drew Cisco (1.4%) Pedro Villarreal (2.7%) James Allen (2.9%)
K% Tony Cingrani (54.2%) Robert Stephenson (33.8%) Carlos Contreras (33.3%)
K/BB Drew Cisco (22.0) Tony Cingrani (13.0) Yohan Pino (7.0)
GB% Sal Romano (60%) Greg Reynolds (56%) Tim Crabbe (55%)
Relievers
Player Player Player
Saves Curtis Partch (4) Kevin Whelan (3) Brooks Pinckard (2)
ERA Justin Freeman (1.29) Kevin Whelan (1.50) Carlos Gonzalez (1.64)
Innings Wes Mugarian (14.2) Pat Doyle (12.2) Joel Bender (12.1)
WHIP Brian Pearl (0.75) Carlos Gonzalez (0.82) Pat Doyle (0.95)
BB% Jake Johnson (1.9%) Jesus Adames (2.5%) Nick Christani (2.9%)
K% Curtis Partch (43.8%) Jose Arredondo (42.5%) El’Hajj Muhammad (41.7%)
K/BB Jake Johnson (11.0) Nick Christiani (10.0) Jesus Adames (8.0)

About The Author

Doug Gray is the owner and operator of this website and has been running it since 2004 in one variation or another. You can follow him on twitter @dougdirt24, contact him via email here or follow the site on Facebook. and Youtube.

6 Responses

  1. WallyP

    Doug I am a Pensacola guy and a NY guy. I split my time in both places. Yesterday I got a chance to see Guillon yesterday and I am in your camp . I am very much concerned. Here are my reasons. His mechanics are not repeating at all. sometimes he is quick to the plate ,other times he is deliberate. His arm slot varies and I have seen a slip in his velocity , that makes me the most concerned .

    I am also in the Manno camp with Mel. Please Please Please forget the first game he pitched. I do not want to make excuses for any player, but when Logan O was aksed to go to AA to work with Coach Brown, Manno was put on the DL. He was pitching very well. He threw in several big league games in the spring and both Dusty and Price, liked him a bunch . Then the next 10 days he does not throw a pitch in a game. What can one expect???

    The last three games he as been outstanding . As I said I spoke to Brown about a week ago , and his words exactly were Manno has not thrown better . I got to see him the last two games he has pitched very well. So as far as luck or unlucky , I am not sure. But 9k’s in 4 2/3 inning is just a sample. But not unusual for Manno. Look at his minor league numbers and in fact go back to his days at Duke . he misses bats

    The other guy that has impressed me is Pino . I like his stuff , keeps the ball down changes speed well and understands progression. I like guys that have an idea when they get out there

  2. BABull

    Corky is catching tonight. Makes sense after a long game last night and a day game tomorrow. Gotta love the ‘stache!

  3. Jimmer

    Worried about Corcino as well, albeit not to the same extent as Guillon. On the brightside Cingrani is exceeding expectations.

  4. Donny

    Corky Miller looks like an out of shape slob. Get rid of this guy. Have some self respect.

    • Jimmer

      Thought he caught/called an excellent game tonight.

    • Doug Gray

      He is a 37 year old catcher. Do you expect him to look like Mike Trout?