2013 MLB Draft Scouting Reports Part Four Doug Gray June 3, 2013 5 Comments Part one can be read here. Part two can be read here. Part three can be read here. The first and second rounds of the 2013 MLB Draft will be on Thursday June 6th. The Reds will be drafting three times that day: 27th, 38th and 67th. When you draft this late in the first round, it is awfully hard to peg who exactly will be available to choose from, much less who a team will choose. Over the next week and a half, I will look at the guys ranked in the 20-40 range on the Baseball America top draft prospects list and give stats (when available), scouting reports and even video (when available). Tim Anderson - SS – East Central Junior College A premium athlete he has drawn comparisons to big leaguers Brandon Phillips and Orlando Hudson. He has plus speed and good range at shortstop, but some scouts wonder if his average arm will lead to him moving to second base or even center field. There seems to be a large gap in what some scouts see for his power output, with some thinking he will have below-average power where some think he can hit for average power. There have been concerns that he can’t hit a breaking ball as well, though most scouts think he will be an average hitter. He has been linked to the Reds. Year AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB AVG OBP SLG 2012 150 54 7 1 4 37 2 N/A 30 .360 .425 .500 2013 182 90 18 11 10 45 17 12 41 .495 .568 .879 Kyle Serrano – RHP – Farragut High School (Tennessee) Kyle Serrano is considered a very tough sign as his father is the coach at Tennessee where he would go to play college ball if he doesn’t sign. While scouts don’t see much projection in Serrano, he is quite polished and is throwing his fastball at 91-94 MPH while mixing in average to above-average change ups and breaking balls. There aren’t many out there who believe Serrano is signable, so there will be plenty of risk associated with drafting him. He has been linked to the Reds. Bobby Wahl – RHP – Mississippi Wahl hasn’t seen his best stuff show up in 2013 thanks to a re-occurring blister problem. His fastball is down a little bit, sitting at 89-92 MPH (90-94 in the past). In the past he has also shown a plus slider, but it too isn’t quite as good as it has been in the past. He mixes in a change up that could be an average pitch in the future. A few scouts question whether he can start, but most believe he can remain a starter. Out of the bullpen though, he has pitched well in the past for Team USA. He has not been linked to the Reds. Year IP H HR BB K ERA WHIP 2011 30.0 33 1 11 26 4.80 1.47 2012 99.0 76 6 32 104 2.55 1.09 2013 90.2 61 3 42 76 1.99 1.14 Ryan Eades – Right Handed Pitcher – LSU Eades has labrum surgery under his belt from high school that led to him missing his senior year. He has been healthy in three years of college though. His fastball is working in the 90-94 MPH range and can get good movement with the pitch. He will show solid-average curveballs and change ups as well. There are some that are concerned with his mechanics. He has not been linked with the Reds. Year IP H HR BB K ERA WHIP 2011 43 49 4 18 31 4.81 1.56 2012 94 107 8 28 68 3.83 1.44 2013 96 98 3 30 77 2.81 1.33 Oscar Mercado – Shortstop – Gaither High School (Florida) Mercado arrived in the United States at age 8 after spending the first part of his life in his home country of Columbia. With no questions about his ability to stick at shortstop where his plus arm plays well, he stands out among the high school group at the position. With that said, there are some questions about his bat. He hit just .286 as a senior in high school and had just 5 extra-base hits in 23 games. Scouts don’t see much power potential with him. He is an average runner but uses his speed well both on the bases and in the field. He has not been linked with the Reds. Overview The two guys who stand out most to me from this group are Tim Anderson and Kyle Serrano. Anderson is the premium athlete that I would love to see wind up in the system. Serrano is a polished high school guy, but one who also has good stuff. Bobby Wahl would be a solid pick for the supplemental spot or second round. Ryan Eades past shoulder injury is always concerning and couple it with his so-so stats not quite matching the stuff leaves me wary. Oscar Mercado just doesn’t look the part for me. He can play defense, but his bat looks slow and that isn’t something you can teach. 5 Responses RobL June 3, 2013 Doug, your overview seems right on to me. I think Tim Anderson may be at the top of the list for potential Reds picks, but I don’t think he makes it to 27. Serrano is out. Eades has good stuff, but the performance hasn’t matched up. The first round is too high in my opinion. I haven’t seen Wahl, and he could be good, but my gut says closer. Never listen to my gut, it is usually wrong. The Duke June 3, 2013 My ideal scenario right now is Billy McKinney at 27 (I think Anderson goes top 20), Wahl or a high ceiling prep arm (preferably a lefty), and then a prep shortstop in rd 2. RobL June 3, 2013 I wouldn’t be upset if the Reds took McKinney, but I just can’t get myself to take a guy who plays the exact same position as Winker. If they were catchers, would you still take McKinney? Neither one has the speed for CF, and while they could play in right, neither really has the arm for it (this is why I’m okay if they do, I will sacrifice some defense for offense). I change my mind on a daily basis, but right now I take Alex Balog at 27. I to believe Anderson doesn’t get close to the Reds. Balog is 6’5 out of U of San Fran. His fb sits 92-95 and he throws a solid slider and cb. With the Reds willingness to teach a change-up, he looks like a three but has the upside for a 2. That gives the Reds Cingrani, Stephenson, Travieso, and Balog on the farm. They then have the flexibilty to trade prospects for big league help or trade big leaguers that they can’t work out extensions with for more prospects. Then at 38 take a bat. Any one of Unroe, Demerrite, Dozier, or Dustin Peterson. My preference would be Unroe. CoachD178 June 4, 2013 I had the same issue when the Reds selected Yonder Alonso when they already had Joey Votto and Neftali Soto. I had the same issue again when they picked Yasmani Grandal when they already had Devin Mesoraco. Then the Reds used those guys to get Mat Latos in a trade. I’m for picking the best players available. If it comes down to a few guys you really like then you can bring position of need into the mix. The reason I believe this is because young prospects aren’t just used for your major league team. Often times those players can be used to get you a major leaguer in return. Let’s say McKinney is better than Winker but Winker is still darn good. Who is to say he Reds can’t use Winker to flip for a shortstop or 2nd baseman or some other position of need. Of course I’m projecting a couple years down the road when Phillips is older. What is Winker is outstanding but McKinney is still pretty good, same scenario. Just take a guy who projects to be good. If the Reds can’t use that guy they can flip him for someone they can use. RobL June 4, 2013 I did read an interview about taking the best players, as they add value to the overall franchise. And I do agree with that philosophy. But I believe the lowest position of value for a position player is left field, so you really have to hit (First base too) to add value. I do have concerns with drafting guys with a 1 year age difference. Votto was in the majors when they selected Alonso, and Soto was a third baseman. Mesoraco I believe had had his first successful half season when Grandal was selected. Things are also different because back then, players would sign in mid-August and basically miss the season. Now they sign by mid-July and get in a full short season. Again, I don’t mind taking McKinney, but if I like others and think they are of similar value, I would take a different position.