RedsMinorLeagues.com 2014 Cincinnati Reds Top 25 Prospects List #6-10 Doug Gray October 31, 2013 43 Comments Today we are looking at the prospects ranked 6-10 on the 2014 Top 25 Cincinnati Reds prospects list. On Friday there will also be a chat to discuss the list, though I will also answer some questions each day in the comments section. All listed ages are the official age during the season, which is calculated by their age as of June 30th of the playing year. Subscribers will get to see the best tool for each player. 10. Ben Lively | Right Handed Pitcher | 2013 Teams: Billings Mustangs & Dayton Dragons Acquired: 4th Round, 2013 Draft | Height: 6′ 4″ | Weight: 190 lbs. | Age: 21 Ben Lively got off to a great start to his professional career as he went 7 straight starts without an earned run before finally giving up a run in his 8th start of the year. In 37 innings with the Billings Mustangs he posted a 0.73 ERA with 12 walks and 49 strikeouts. He made one start with Dayton where he allowed a run in 4 innings with 7 more strikeouts in one of the best debuts on the Reds farm in a long time. Team W L ERA SV IP H HR BB K WHIP BB% K% K/BB Billings 0 3 0.73 0 37.0 21 0 12 49 0.89 8.2% 33.6% 4.1 Dayton 0 1 2.25 0 4.0 2 0 1 7 0.75 6.3% 43.8% 7.0 Total 0 4 0.88 0 41.0 23 0 13 56 0.88 8.0% 34.6% 4.3 9. Carlos Contreras | Right Handed Pitcher | 2013 Teams: Bakersfield Blaze & Pensacola Blue Wahoos Acquired: International Free Agent, 2008 | Height: 5′ 11″ | Weight: 205 lbs. | Age: 22 Contreras made the move to the rotation for the 2013 season after spending most of his career pitching in relief. He posteda3.47 ERA between Bakersfield and Pensacola in 132.1 innings with 62 walks and 122 strikeouts. He dominated against right handers where he walked 8.7% of opposing hitters and struck out 26.9% of opposing hitters. He struggled against lefties though where he walked 15% of the lefties he faced and struck out just 13.6% of lefties. Team W L ERA SV IP H HR BB K WHIP BB% K% K/BB Bakersfield 5 7 3.80 0 90.0 70 9 41 96 1.23 10.9% 25.5% 2.3 Pensacola 3 2 2.76 0 42.1 36 2 21 26 1.35 11.5% 14.2% 1.2 Total 8 9 3.47 0 132.1 106 11 62 122 1.27 11.1% 21.8% 2.0 8. Michael Lorenzen | Right Handed Pitcher | 2013 Teams: AZL Reds, Dayton Dragons, Bakersfield Blaze & Pensacola Blue Wahoos Acquired: 1st Round, 2013 Draft | Height: 6′ 3″ | Weight: 180 lbs. | Age: 21 The Reds aggressively promoted Lorenzen in his professional debut as he had stops at four levels and was sent to the Arizona Fall League. During the year he worked out of the bullpen, but is transitioning to starting pitcher in Arizona. He dominated in 9.1 innings between the Arizona Rookie League and Dayton, but struggled has struggled with his control in Bakersfield, Pensacola and now in the Arizona Fall League. Team W L ERA SV IP H HR BB K WHIP BB% K% K/BB AZL Reds 0 0 0.00 0 1.0 1 0 0 1 1.00 0.0% 20.0% INF Dayton 1 0 0.00 2 8.1 7 0 2 7 1.08 6.3% 21.9% 3.5 Bakersfield 0 1 6.35 2 5.2 6 1 5 6 1.94 16.7% 20.0% 1.2 Pensacola 0 0 4.50 0 6.0 6 1 6 5 2.00 21.4% 17.9% 0.8 Total 1 1 3.00 4 21.0 20 2 13 19 1.57 13.7% 20.0% 1.5 7. Jon Moscot | Right Handed Pitcher | 2013 Teams: Bakersfield Blaze & Pensacola Blue Wahoos Acquired: 4th Round, 2012 Draft | Height: 6′ 4″ | Weight: 205 lbs. | Age: 21 Moscot got off to a very rough start in Bakersfield where in his first three starts he posted a 12.71 ERA. After those three starts he posted a 3.50 ERA the rest of the season in 138.2 innings with 42 walks and 130 strikeouts between Bakersfield and Pensacola. He was better against right handers where he struck out 26.6% of opposing batters and walked 6.9% of them. Against lefties he walked 8.8% of opposing batters and struck out 14.6% of them. Team W L ERA SV IP H HR BB K WHIP BB% K% K/BB Bakersfield 2 14 4.59 0 115.2 109 17 36 112 1.25 7.3% 22.8% 3.1 Pensacola 2 1 3.19 0 31.0 34 3 12 28 1.48 8.7% 20.3% 2.3 Total 4 15 4.30 0 146.2 143 20 48 140 1.30 7.6% 22.3% 2.9 6. Nick Travieso | Right Handed Pitcher | 2013 Teams: Dayton Dragons Acquired: 1st Round, 2012 Draft | Height: 6′ 2″ | Weight: 215 lbs. | Age: 19 Travieso didn’t get his season started until June and he initially had some struggles. In his first five starts he posted a 5.40 ERA with 9 walks and 12 strikeouts in 21.2 innings. He made adjustments after that and posted a 4.28 ERA in 61 innings with 18 walks and 49 strikeouts to finish out the season. His strikeout rate was similar against both lefties and righties (17.7% and 17.4%), but his walk rate was much higher against lefties (10.2%) than against righties (5.5%). Team W L ERA SV IP H HR BB K WHIP BB% K% K/BB Dayton 7 4 4.63 0 81.2 83 7 27 61 1.25 7.8% 17.5% 2.3 Scouting Notes [private_subscriber] 10. Ben Lively Best tool: Slider. Easily his best pitch, the slider is an above-average to plus pitch. 9. Carlos Contreras Best tool: Change Up. Contreras doesn’t use it as much as some of his other pitches, but the pitch is easily a plus pitch with outstanding movement. 8. Michael Lorenzen Best tool: Fastball. Lorenzen has topped out at 99 MPH this season and even as a starter in Arizona has topped out at 96. 7. Jon Moscot Best tool: Slider. Moscot doesn’t have a big stand out pitch, but his slider is above-average and a little better than his other three pitches. 6. Nick Travieso Best tool: Fastball. While his velocity varied throughout the year, there were games where he sat 93-95 and touched 97 MPH. [/private_subscriber] 43 Responses The Duke October 31, 2013 Travieso could have really benefited from a little bit of time in Billings given his light workload in high school. I’m still pretty high on him and have him in my top five, granted not too far from where you have him. Hasn’t been that long since we saw a start like Lively’s, considering Langfield was nearly as dominant and Cingrani even more so, but it certainly was a nice start. Lively comes off as a very smart pitcher, and seemed good at mixing pitches and changing locations/eye level with decent to good stuff. A big reason why I like Conteras more than Moscot is that Contreras gives up quite a few less hits. If he can take another step forward in bringing down his walk rate, he could have more than just flashes of dominance. My 6-25 6. Yorman Rodriguez 7. Carlos Contreras 8. Michael Lorenzen 9. Chad Rogers 10. Ben Lively 11. Jon Moscot 12. Dan Corcino 13. Tucker Barnhart 14. Seth Mejias-Brean 15. Mark Armstrong 16. Jose Ortiz 17. Jackson Stephens 18. Cory Thompson 19. Jeremy Kivel 20. Jonathan Reynoso 21. KJ Franklin 22. Tanner Rahier 23. Sal Romano 24. Dan Langfield 25. Avain Rachal Dick October 31, 2013 Todays list…all pitching. Pitching depth, system wide…in your, or anyones opinion…excellent, good, fair or poor? Doug Gray October 31, 2013 I will have more on it in two weeks when I cover it in the State of the Farm, but it is certainly good depth. sultan of swaff October 31, 2013 Travieso’s lack of strikeouts are alarming. Those are the numbers of a finesse pitcher like Leake, not a power arm. I’m a little worried Walt and Co. whiffed on this pick, but next year will be more telling since there will be no concerns about workload. You can’t help but be excited about Lorenzen. A very high ceiling because of the physical tools. I would think at worst he’ll be a flamethrowing closer, with the potential of a top of the rotation starter. The only question will be the development of his offspeed pitches, and for that you need starter innings. So in that sense, it’s a good idea to get him stretched out in Arizona and make that adjustment prior to spring training. It’s also interesting how these guys are at similar stages in their development either by age or level. There’s a decent chance that 2 or 3 of this group could arrive in Cincinnati by mid-2015. Alan Horn October 31, 2013 I share your concerns on Travieso. It is early and he is young, so he could develop. I like to see our top choices be dominant in their league. Winker, Ervin and Stephenson did that. It doesn’t mean if they aren’t dominant, they can’t be just as good. It just lessens the odds a good bit. MK October 31, 2013 The three prospects you list probably have 5 times the experience as Nick. think Nick was still learning to control his 4-seam fastball rather than something that had some break or much movement, which meant in the Midwest League he wasn’t going to get many strikeouts. I think he will be in Dayton again and I truly believe he will improve 100%. In addition he has a great attitude and personality. stock October 31, 2013 This makes a lot of sense. Great comment. Hopefully he will take the next step this year. If he does he could be a top 100 prospect next year That said it is a big step. Doug Gray October 31, 2013 This comment, 100%. Without any context, I would understand the concerns a lot more. But just about every pitcher in the league has a whole lot more pitching experience than he did and he still held his own and showed improvements throughout the year while flashing real stuff. Not everyone comes out of the draft as a polished guy. Some need work and refinement. stock October 31, 2013 I third the fear that Travieso may not have been a great pick. At that level with his stuff I am not sure why he doesn’t strike out a batter per inning. My hope is that because of limited innings in HS he is further behind in his development than other studs at a similar age. Stephenson at 19 in Dayton 9K/9IP, 20 at Dayton 11K/9IP Travieso 19 in Dayton 7K/9IP, 20 at Dayton ? If he can move his K’s to 9K/9IP then I will be a lot more comfortable. Norwood Nate October 31, 2013 From here on out everyone should be in the same ball park. #10 – Daniel Corcino: I still think he has the stuff, he just needs to make the adjustments. He was at the bottom end of the top 100 prospects to start last year. He wouldn’t be the first player to struggle getting to a new level. Let’s hope he turns it around. #9 – Carlos Contreras: Like his stuff, like it more that we has been stretched out to be a starter. Anyone who puts up pitching stats like that in the Cal-league deserves some recognition. #8 – Tucker Barnhart: I’m under the opinion that his D could play right now in the Majors. I was happy to see his bat come around last year. Will be the basis of a nice C corp w/ Mesoraco for the future. #7 – Chad Rogers: One of the better full years by a pitcher in the system. Has solid control and throws a variety of pitches. In my view, much like LeCure with a better chance of sticking as a back end starter. #6 – Yorman Rodriguez: He’s always had the tools, last year he started putting them to use. It would be ideal if he could build on last year (and the AFL has been off to a good start) and be ready to take over for Ludwick after next year, though I fear that may not give him enough time. Just for fun, the previous part of my list: 25 Bueno 24 LaMarre 23 Ortiz 22 Cisco 21 Romano 20 Arias 19 Henry Rodriguez 18 Franklin 17 Rahier 16 Moscot 15 Guillon 14 Garret 13 Lively 12 Lorenzen 11 Meijas-Brean Billy October 31, 2013 Is there any case to be made for anyone other than Stephenson, Hamilton, Ervin, Winker, Yorman Rodriguez, and Travieso in the top 6? stock October 31, 2013 Yorman strikes out far too much and Travieso doesn’t strike out enough batters. That said I love MK’s comment above. Makes me want to rethink Travieso. Doug Gray October 31, 2013 I could have made a case for a few guys if I tried hard enough. Lorenzen has big, big upside. So if you wanted to play that card, you could put him there. I could see more “performance” rankers having a guy like Moscot in there. WallyP October 31, 2013 Just a note it seems the reds claimed Pedro Beato from the redsox. I know Beato from NYC wanderinredsfan October 31, 2013 Seems a bit too ‘bullish’ on Contreras (future reliever) and Moscot (back end of rotation). Still confused as to why Constante isn’t in the top-25. Doug Gray October 31, 2013 Ask tomorrow in the chat. I think it’s a good question that others will have, so I would like to answer it on a broader scale so it isn’t lost in the shuffle. stock October 31, 2013 10. – SMB Hopefully we don’t see any months like we did last April and May. I’d love to see more consistency in the power game but overall a very promising year. 9. – Nick Travieso I’d love to put him in the top 5 next year. His K/9IP rate of 7 is a little concerning though. That said it would have been nice to see him in Billings last year. 8. – Yorman Rodriguez Yorman’s K rate scares me. This is mostly from 2 days ago but I added A+ ball and corrected some of the ages. I looked at the biggest strikeout hitters in the majors. How did they do in the minors? Only 4 from this list struck out more than 20% of the time in A+ ball and only 2 did so in AA. To the credit of most of the players on this list they showed off their power in both A+ and AA. Yorman is a year younger than most of these players so maybe he will show improvement in 2014 but if not you are looking at best case scenario of Colby Rasmus or Brett Wallace. Maybe that is where you are at anyway. This is a big year for Yorman. We won’t be able to use the excuse of extremely young for his level anymore. Yorman Rodriguez 28% K rate and.219 ISO in A+ (at age 20), 26% K Rate and .118 ISO in AA (at age 20) Chris Davis 29% in A+ (21) with .275 ISO, 22%, .394 in AA (21), 23%,.351 in AAA, 30%, .247 in the majors Chris Carter 26% , .310 (21) in A+, 20%, .239 in AA (22), 24.5%, .259 in AAA, 35%, .294 in the majors Pedro Alvarez 25%, .239 (22) in A+, 23%, .257 in AA (22), 24.5%, .256 in AAA, 30.5%, .207 in the majors Mark Trumbo 15%, .270 (22) in A+, 19%, .220 in AA (22), 21%, .276 in AAA, 25%, .219 in the majors Justin Upton 19%, .198 (19) in A+, 17%, .247 in AA (19), 23%, .198 in the majors Colby Rasmus 14%, .160 (19), in A+, 19%, .275 in AA (20), 19%, .145 in AAA, 24%, .188 in the majors Brett Wallace 18%, .163 (21) in A, 19%, .286 in AA (21), 17%, .131 in AAA, 29.5%, .149 in the majors Justin SMoak 16%, .214 (21) in A, 19%, .153 in AA (22), 19% , .117 in AAA, 25%, .159 in the majors BJ Upton (no A, A+ or AA) 19%, .126 in AAA (22), 26%, .161 in the majors Drew Stubbs 23%, .145 (23) in A+, 20%, .087 in AA (23), 23%, .187 in AAA, 29%, .142 in the majors 7. Jon Moscot – Seems like Rogers, Moscot and Lively are going to follow the same path to the majors as Cingrani. It would be nice to have one pitcher like this every year. 6. Ben Lively – Maybe he belongs at # 5 but 5 – 7 were so close I gave the 5 spot to the player closest to the majors. To say he had an impressive start to his professional career is an understatement. He was almost as impressive as Cingrani in his first year. Mel October 31, 2013 As much as I like this blog and as good as Doug is (second to none in this market). I dislike this time of year. I think top 20 or top whatever is a bunch of crap. I think it good to chat about it and it does prove to be open ended. I just personally think its GARBAGE. I could go over each guy and argue his placement. For example Amir Garrett is a complete joke. He should not even be mentioned in this conversation. He is a part time baseball player that puts zero work into playing this game Not a big fan of top 20 Doug Gray October 31, 2013 A few things Mel…. I used to be all about where a guy was ranked in comparison to someone else. Even with my own rankings, I want to stress that the number next to their name is a lot less important than what is written in their scouting report. That is where the valuable information is at, not so much with the number next to their name which is subject to a whole slew of things (position scarcity, ones personal beliefs about how valuable a position is or what should be expected from that said position to be a starter, proximity to the Majors, how one feels about upside versus on field production and a few other things). With Garrett, while you are right that he is a part time player, I don’t agree that he puts zero work into playing this game. Mel October 31, 2013 Doug I think the world of you but trust me , ask his coaches at St Johns, ask his baseball coaches in the minors. The kid needs a wake up call. All the talent in the world but a work ethic of a dog in heat. Fact MK October 31, 2013 Mel. I got to know and observe Amir this summer. You are completely incorrect in your generalization that he does not work on his game. As far as his basketball coaches concerns, if there are some, think it could be because he spends from June from August concentrating on baseball? If the Reds were to draft a college junior (which is what he what he would be in June 2014) left handed pitcher, who throws in the mid 90s, who is a tremendous athlete, would he be in the top 20 prospects? If no, how about if that junior had two years of professional extended spring training, a season of rookie ball, another half season of advanced rookie ball and another half Low A ball. He left Dayton three days before the end of the regular season and would not have had another start. Would he be a top 20 prospect? Don’t know about you but I would say yes. I agree I would like to see him concentrate on baseball but I am one who is glad we have him. As a side note, speaking of his athleticism, I saw a video of him on one of the road trips jump completely over Ismael Guillon (6’2″) to dunk a basketball. Nick October 31, 2013 Good perspective, MK. At least he has some exposure to the system that has produced some quality arms of late (Cingrani, Stephenson, Bailey, etc.). Garrett’s has too much talent to dismiss. I’m sure it is difficult to play two sports at such a high level. Mel October 31, 2013 Few words on Beato. I know him well, scouted him in New York. We had him as a 1st rounder also. Big kid grew up in queens(looking at my notes) Went to a very strong baseball school. In fact was team-mates with Chris Manno for two years in High School and 5 years in travel ball. Great Great make up. I watched him pitch this year and love his sinker . Good action on his fastball, I think he is a very welcome addition to the pen. In fact I would not be surprised if he starts also Doug Gray October 31, 2013 Seeing where he has gone from when he signed to the guy I saw pitch this summer, he had to put in some work. Pure athleticism can’t make up that kind of gap. terry m October 31, 2013 See where Chris Perez was released by the Indians. Think the REDS might have an interest ?? He got into trouble when marijuana was mailed to his home… Doug Gray October 31, 2013 The talent is there. So it would be a matter of do you want to take the risk versus reward gamble. Mel October 31, 2013 They spent $1,000,000 on this kid Doug , are you out of your mind. They spent that kind of money and did not take the time to check this kids make-up. You will see how correct I am in the next year or 2 mark my words Kris October 31, 2013 Mel, Do you enjoy being a miserable person who is attacking other human beings? There is a difference in being critical of someone’s performance and being a jerk. He’s still an actual person, believe it or not. Great article posted today about a former Oregon football player who returned to attend a game and saw this side of people. So much more enjoyable to be a sports fan and have FUN not post garbage like this. Doug is great. Have fun. Relax a bit. If Amir doesn’t pan out, all our lives will continue just as they were. And if he DOES pan out, would you like all of us to return to the form and tell you how horrible of a commenter you are and how you suck? I didn’t think so. Normally this site stays above these sort of comments and I wish it would stay that way. Kris October 31, 2013 Sorry to all involved for the sheer number of typos in that last post by me. Typing too fast and with too much emotion. My tolerance for these sort of “fans” is just growing thin. DaveCT October 31, 2013 Hey Doug, how did you have Rogers and Moscot/lively so far apart? I get the part of Rogers’ projection as a reliver in your take, but I am not so sure we can’t say the same for Moscot and Lively’s eventual role. Rogers has also flat out pitched for two consecutive seasons now as a starter, so I, like others can still see his role in the back end of a rotation somewhere if not here. Which is pretty much the same for the other two. Thanks. Doug Gray October 31, 2013 I just saw better stuff from the other two guys. Better projection IMO. Wally November 1, 2013 Kris I think your comments are on target. Mel you are being an ass Dan November 1, 2013 Apparently I’m missing something on Moscot. Did not expect that ranking at all. Mel November 1, 2013 Hey Wally and Kris How is being honest being miserable, I know this kid and his makeup, should I candy coat like both of you or should I be direct. I would never hurt anyone, but sometimes a person needs to hear the truth , I would love this kid to figure it out , he has a great arm, I have never argued that, but for Christ’s sake I am not going to walk on eggshells Kris because you want to be a proper contributor on this blog. I keep it real Kris November 1, 2013 Doug isn’t going to call you out. I think time has proven he’s not that type of person, which I respect a lot. You can be direct without being a jerk. That’s a simple fact lost on a lot of people. Sorry to expect more intelligent and reasonable comments from people on this site. Go sift through the nonsense on Cincinnati.com’s comments section, then come back here, and you’ll see the difference that I believe most of us enjoy. Mel November 1, 2013 Doug if you dont like my post , and me being honest, I can just watch from the sidelines and not contribute sultan of swaff November 1, 2013 Awww, somone got their fee-fees hurt. Mel November 1, 2013 do not want to beat this to death and my last post on this site.. How is being honest being a jerk . I take offense to that. Maybe if someone was honest with this kid , he may live up to his potential. Good bye friend Kris November 1, 2013 “Doug I think the world of you but trust me , ask his coaches at St Johns, ask his baseball coaches in the minors. The kid needs a wake up call. All the talent in the world but a work ethic of a dog in heat. Fact” The work ethic of a dog in heat? That’s not getting a little personal and being a jerk? “They spent $1,000,000 on this kid Doug , are you out of your mind. They spent that kind of money and did not take the time to check this kids make-up. You will see how correct I am in the next year or 2 mark my words” Everything there is also being a jerk. You are calling out Doug, you are hoping the kid fails. Not cool. Don’t make the comments PERSONAL, especially to Doug. Mel November 1, 2013 Kris you seem play judge and jury, I do not want to get into it with you but to be very honest, my words are the truth, if you dont like , dont read when I make a post. I never called out Doug and have always had high praise for him. So stop your ass kissing crap . You are trying to start trouble and thats not cool Doug Gray November 1, 2013 Hey guys, play nice. We all have our opinions, but lets not attack other users. Mel, you can hang out all you want, but let’s keep the language a little cleaner. JMO November 3, 2013 I wouldn’t even put Travieso in the Top 15. Walt missed the boat big time on passing on Wacha. At least he tried to right the ship this year by taking the best player available and that was Ervin. That is why Wacha should have been the pick, he was BPA. That is how we got Leake, Yonder, Grandal and Stephenson recently. Doug Gray November 4, 2013 What does Wacha have to do with ranking Travieso?