Today we are looking at the prospects ranked 6-10 on the 2014 Top 25 Cincinnati Reds prospects list. On Friday there will also be a chat to discuss the list, though I will also answer some questions each day in the comments section. All listed ages are the official age during the season, which is calculated by their age as of June 30th of the playing year. Subscribers will get to see the best tool for each player.

10. Ben Lively | Right Handed Pitcher | 2013 Teams: Billings Mustangs & Dayton Dragons

Acquired: 4th Round, 2013 Draft | Height: 6′ 4″ | Weight: 190 lbs. | Age: 21

Ben Lively got off to a great start to his professional career as he went 7 straight starts without an earned run before finally giving up a run in his 8th start of the year. In 37 innings with the Billings Mustangs he posted a 0.73 ERA with 12 walks and 49 strikeouts. He made one start with Dayton where he allowed a run in 4 innings with 7 more strikeouts in one of the best debuts on the Reds farm in a long time.

Team W L ERA SV IP H HR BB K WHIP BB% K% K/BB
Billings 0 3 0.73 0 37.0 21 0 12 49 0.89 8.2% 33.6% 4.1
Dayton 0 1 2.25 0 4.0 2 0 1 7 0.75 6.3% 43.8% 7.0
Total 0 4 0.88 0 41.0 23 0 13 56 0.88 8.0% 34.6% 4.3

 

9. Carlos Contreras | Right Handed Pitcher | 2013 Teams: Bakersfield Blaze & Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Acquired: International Free Agent, 2008 | Height: 5′ 11″ | Weight: 205 lbs. | Age: 22

Contreras made the move to the rotation for the 2013 season after spending most of his career pitching in relief. He posteda3.47 ERA between Bakersfield and Pensacola in 132.1 innings with 62 walks and 122 strikeouts. He dominated against right handers where he walked 8.7% of opposing hitters and struck out 26.9% of opposing hitters. He struggled against lefties though where he walked 15% of the lefties he faced and struck out just 13.6% of lefties.

Team  ERA  SV  IP  HR  BB  WHIP  BB%  K%  K/BB
Bakersfield 5 7 3.80 0 90.0 70 9 41 96 1.23 10.9% 25.5% 2.3
Pensacola 3 2 2.76 0 42.1 36 2 21 26 1.35 11.5% 14.2% 1.2
Total 8 9 3.47 0 132.1 106 11 62 122 1.27 11.1% 21.8% 2.0

 

8. Michael Lorenzen | Right Handed Pitcher | 2013 Teams: AZL Reds, Dayton Dragons, Bakersfield Blaze & Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Acquired: 1st Round, 2013 Draft | Height: 6′ 3″ | Weight: 180 lbs. | Age: 21

The Reds aggressively promoted Lorenzen in his professional debut as he had stops at four levels and was sent to the Arizona Fall League. During the year he worked out of the bullpen, but is transitioning to starting pitcher in Arizona. He dominated in 9.1 innings between the Arizona Rookie League and Dayton, but struggled has struggled with his control in Bakersfield, Pensacola and now in the Arizona Fall League.

Team  ERA  SV  IP  HR  BB  WHIP  BB%  K%  K/BB
AZL Reds 0 0 0.00 0 1.0 1 0 0 1 1.00 0.0% 20.0% INF
Dayton 1 0 0.00 2 8.1 7 0 2 7 1.08 6.3% 21.9% 3.5
Bakersfield 0 1 6.35 2 5.2 6 1 5 6 1.94 16.7% 20.0% 1.2
Pensacola 0 0 4.50 0 6.0 6 1 6 5 2.00 21.4% 17.9% 0.8
Total 1 1 3.00 4 21.0 20 2 13 19 1.57 13.7% 20.0% 1.5

 

7. Jon Moscot | Right Handed Pitcher | 2013 Teams: Bakersfield Blaze & Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Acquired: 4th Round, 2012 Draft | Height: 6′ 4″ | Weight: 205 lbs. | Age: 21

Moscot got off to a very rough start in Bakersfield where in his first three starts he posted a 12.71 ERA. After those three starts he posted a 3.50 ERA the rest of the season in 138.2 innings with 42 walks and 130 strikeouts between Bakersfield and Pensacola. He was better against right handers where he struck out 26.6% of opposing batters and walked 6.9% of them. Against lefties he walked 8.8% of opposing batters and struck out 14.6% of them.

Team  ERA  SV  IP  HR  BB  WHIP  BB% K%  K/BB
Bakersfield 2 14 4.59 0 115.2 109 17 36 112 1.25 7.3% 22.8% 3.1
Pensacola 2 1 3.19 0 31.0 34 3 12 28 1.48 8.7% 20.3% 2.3
Total 4 15 4.30 0 146.2 143 20 48 140 1.30 7.6% 22.3% 2.9

 

6. Nick Travieso | Right Handed Pitcher | 2013 Teams: Dayton Dragons

Acquired: 1st Round, 2012 Draft | Height: 6′ 2″ | Weight: 215 lbs. | Age: 19

Travieso didn’t get his season started until June and he initially had some struggles. In his first five starts he posted a 5.40 ERA with 9 walks and 12 strikeouts in 21.2 innings. He made adjustments after that and posted a 4.28 ERA in 61 innings with 18 walks and 49 strikeouts to finish out the season. His strikeout rate was similar against both lefties and righties (17.7% and 17.4%), but his walk rate was much higher against lefties (10.2%) than against righties (5.5%).

Team  ERA  SV  IP  HR  BB  WHIP  BB%  K%  K/BB
Dayton 7 4 4.63 0 81.2 83 7 27 61 1.25 7.8% 17.5% 2.3

 

Scouting Notes

[private_subscriber]

10. Ben Lively

Best tool: Slider. Easily his best pitch, the slider is an above-average to plus pitch.

9. Carlos Contreras

Best tool: Change Up. Contreras doesn’t use it as much as some of his other pitches, but the pitch is easily a plus pitch with outstanding movement.

8. Michael Lorenzen

Best tool: Fastball. Lorenzen has topped out at 99 MPH this season and even as a starter in Arizona has topped out at 96.

7. Jon Moscot

Best tool: Slider. Moscot doesn’t have a big stand out pitch, but his slider is above-average and a little better than his other three pitches.

6. Nick Travieso

Best tool: Fastball. While his velocity varied throughout the year, there were games where he sat 93-95 and touched 97 MPH.

[/private_subscriber]

43 Responses

  1. The Duke

    Travieso could have really benefited from a little bit of time in Billings given his light workload in high school. I’m still pretty high on him and have him in my top five, granted not too far from where you have him.

    Hasn’t been that long since we saw a start like Lively’s, considering Langfield was nearly as dominant and Cingrani even more so, but it certainly was a nice start. Lively comes off as a very smart pitcher, and seemed good at mixing pitches and changing locations/eye level with decent to good stuff.

    A big reason why I like Conteras more than Moscot is that Contreras gives up quite a few less hits. If he can take another step forward in bringing down his walk rate, he could have more than just flashes of dominance.

    My 6-25

    6. Yorman Rodriguez
    7. Carlos Contreras
    8. Michael Lorenzen
    9. Chad Rogers
    10. Ben Lively
    11. Jon Moscot
    12. Dan Corcino
    13. Tucker Barnhart
    14. Seth Mejias-Brean
    15. Mark Armstrong
    16. Jose Ortiz
    17. Jackson Stephens
    18. Cory Thompson
    19. Jeremy Kivel
    20. Jonathan Reynoso
    21. KJ Franklin
    22. Tanner Rahier
    23. Sal Romano
    24. Dan Langfield
    25. Avain Rachal

  2. Dick

    Todays list…all pitching. Pitching depth, system wide…in your, or anyones opinion…excellent, good, fair or poor?

    • Doug Gray

      I will have more on it in two weeks when I cover it in the State of the Farm, but it is certainly good depth.

  3. sultan of swaff

    Travieso’s lack of strikeouts are alarming. Those are the numbers of a finesse pitcher like Leake, not a power arm. I’m a little worried Walt and Co. whiffed on this pick, but next year will be more telling since there will be no concerns about workload.

    You can’t help but be excited about Lorenzen. A very high ceiling because of the physical tools. I would think at worst he’ll be a flamethrowing closer, with the potential of a top of the rotation starter. The only question will be the development of his offspeed pitches, and for that you need starter innings. So in that sense, it’s a good idea to get him stretched out in Arizona and make that adjustment prior to spring training.

    It’s also interesting how these guys are at similar stages in their development either by age or level. There’s a decent chance that 2 or 3 of this group could arrive in Cincinnati by mid-2015.

    • Alan Horn

      I share your concerns on Travieso. It is early and he is young, so he could develop.
      I like to see our top choices be dominant in their league. Winker, Ervin and Stephenson did that. It doesn’t mean if they aren’t dominant, they can’t be just as good. It just lessens the odds a good bit.

      • MK

        The three prospects you list probably have 5 times the experience as Nick. think Nick was still learning to control his 4-seam fastball rather than something that had some break or much movement, which meant in the Midwest League he wasn’t going to get many strikeouts. I think he will be in Dayton again and I truly believe he will improve 100%.

        In addition he has a great attitude and personality.

      • stock

        This makes a lot of sense. Great comment. Hopefully he will take the next step this year. If he does he could be a top 100 prospect next year That said it is a big step.

      • Doug Gray

        This comment, 100%.

        Without any context, I would understand the concerns a lot more. But just about every pitcher in the league has a whole lot more pitching experience than he did and he still held his own and showed improvements throughout the year while flashing real stuff.

        Not everyone comes out of the draft as a polished guy. Some need work and refinement.

      • stock

        I third the fear that Travieso may not have been a great pick. At that level with his stuff I am not sure why he doesn’t strike out a batter per inning. My hope is that because of limited innings in HS he is further behind in his development than other studs at a similar age.

        Stephenson at 19 in Dayton 9K/9IP, 20 at Dayton 11K/9IP
        Travieso 19 in Dayton 7K/9IP, 20 at Dayton ?

        If he can move his K’s to 9K/9IP then I will be a lot more comfortable.

  4. Norwood Nate

    From here on out everyone should be in the same ball park.

    #10 – Daniel Corcino: I still think he has the stuff, he just needs to make the adjustments. He was at the bottom end of the top 100 prospects to start last year. He wouldn’t be the first player to struggle getting to a new level. Let’s hope he turns it around.
    #9 – Carlos Contreras: Like his stuff, like it more that we has been stretched out to be a starter. Anyone who puts up pitching stats like that in the Cal-league deserves some recognition.
    #8 – Tucker Barnhart: I’m under the opinion that his D could play right now in the Majors. I was happy to see his bat come around last year. Will be the basis of a nice C corp w/ Mesoraco for the future.
    #7 – Chad Rogers: One of the better full years by a pitcher in the system. Has solid control and throws a variety of pitches. In my view, much like LeCure with a better chance of sticking as a back end starter.
    #6 – Yorman Rodriguez: He’s always had the tools, last year he started putting them to use. It would be ideal if he could build on last year (and the AFL has been off to a good start) and be ready to take over for Ludwick after next year, though I fear that may not give him enough time.

    Just for fun, the previous part of my list:
    25 Bueno
    24 LaMarre
    23 Ortiz
    22 Cisco
    21 Romano
    20 Arias
    19 Henry Rodriguez
    18 Franklin
    17 Rahier
    16 Moscot
    15 Guillon
    14 Garret
    13 Lively
    12 Lorenzen
    11 Meijas-Brean

  5. Billy

    Is there any case to be made for anyone other than Stephenson, Hamilton, Ervin, Winker, Yorman Rodriguez, and Travieso in the top 6?

    • stock

      Yorman strikes out far too much and Travieso doesn’t strike out enough batters. That said I love MK’s comment above. Makes me want to rethink Travieso.

    • Doug Gray

      I could have made a case for a few guys if I tried hard enough. Lorenzen has big, big upside. So if you wanted to play that card, you could put him there. I could see more “performance” rankers having a guy like Moscot in there.

  6. WallyP

    Just a note it seems the reds claimed Pedro Beato from the redsox. I know Beato from NYC

  7. wanderinredsfan

    Seems a bit too ‘bullish’ on Contreras (future reliever) and Moscot (back end of rotation).

    Still confused as to why Constante isn’t in the top-25.

    • Doug Gray

      Ask tomorrow in the chat. I think it’s a good question that others will have, so I would like to answer it on a broader scale so it isn’t lost in the shuffle.

  8. stock

    10. – SMB
    Hopefully we don’t see any months like we did last April and May. I’d love to see more consistency in the power game but overall a very promising year.

    9. – Nick Travieso
    I’d love to put him in the top 5 next year. His K/9IP rate of 7 is a little concerning though. That said it would have been nice to see him in Billings last year.

    8. – Yorman Rodriguez
    Yorman’s K rate scares me. This is mostly from 2 days ago but I added A+ ball and corrected some of the ages. I looked at the biggest strikeout hitters in the majors. How did they do in the minors? Only 4 from this list struck out more than 20% of the time in A+ ball and only 2 did so in AA. To the credit of most of the players on this list they showed off their power in both A+ and AA. Yorman is a year younger than most of these players so maybe he will show improvement in 2014 but if not you are looking at best case scenario of Colby Rasmus or Brett Wallace. Maybe that is where you are at anyway. This is a big year for Yorman. We won’t be able to use the excuse of extremely young for his level anymore.

    Yorman Rodriguez 28% K rate and.219 ISO in A+ (at age 20), 26% K Rate and .118 ISO in AA (at age 20)
    Chris Davis 29% in A+ (21) with .275 ISO, 22%, .394 in AA (21), 23%,.351 in AAA, 30%, .247 in the majors
    Chris Carter 26% , .310 (21) in A+, 20%, .239 in AA (22), 24.5%, .259 in AAA, 35%, .294 in the majors
    Pedro Alvarez 25%, .239 (22) in A+, 23%, .257 in AA (22), 24.5%, .256 in AAA, 30.5%, .207 in the majors
    Mark Trumbo 15%, .270 (22) in A+, 19%, .220 in AA (22), 21%, .276 in AAA, 25%, .219 in the majors
    Justin Upton 19%, .198 (19) in A+, 17%, .247 in AA (19), 23%, .198 in the majors
    Colby Rasmus 14%, .160 (19), in A+, 19%, .275 in AA (20), 19%, .145 in AAA, 24%, .188 in the majors
    Brett Wallace 18%, .163 (21) in A, 19%, .286 in AA (21), 17%, .131 in AAA, 29.5%, .149 in the majors
    Justin SMoak 16%, .214 (21) in A, 19%, .153 in AA (22), 19% , .117 in AAA, 25%, .159 in the majors
    BJ Upton (no A, A+ or AA) 19%, .126 in AAA (22), 26%, .161 in the majors
    Drew Stubbs 23%, .145 (23) in A+, 20%, .087 in AA (23), 23%, .187 in AAA, 29%, .142 in the majors

    7. Jon Moscot – Seems like Rogers, Moscot and Lively are going to follow the same path to the majors as Cingrani. It would be nice to have one pitcher like this every year.

    6. Ben Lively – Maybe he belongs at # 5 but 5 – 7 were so close I gave the 5 spot to the player closest to the majors. To say he had an impressive start to his professional career is an understatement. He was almost as impressive as Cingrani in his first year.

  9. Mel

    As much as I like this blog and as good as Doug is (second to none in this market). I dislike this time of year. I think top 20 or top whatever is a bunch of crap. I think it good to chat about it and it does prove to be open ended. I just personally think its GARBAGE. I could go over each guy and argue his placement. For example Amir Garrett is a complete joke. He should not even be mentioned in this conversation. He is a part time baseball player that puts zero work into playing this game

    Not a big fan of top 20

    • Doug Gray

      A few things Mel….

      I used to be all about where a guy was ranked in comparison to someone else. Even with my own rankings, I want to stress that the number next to their name is a lot less important than what is written in their scouting report. That is where the valuable information is at, not so much with the number next to their name which is subject to a whole slew of things (position scarcity, ones personal beliefs about how valuable a position is or what should be expected from that said position to be a starter, proximity to the Majors, how one feels about upside versus on field production and a few other things).

      With Garrett, while you are right that he is a part time player, I don’t agree that he puts zero work into playing this game.

  10. Mel

    Doug I think the world of you but trust me , ask his coaches at St Johns, ask his baseball coaches in the minors. The kid needs a wake up call. All the talent in the world but a work ethic of a dog in heat. Fact

    • MK

      Mel. I got to know and observe Amir this summer. You are completely incorrect in your generalization that he does not work on his game. As far as his basketball coaches concerns, if there are some, think it could be because he spends from June from August concentrating on baseball?

      If the Reds were to draft a college junior (which is what he what he would be in June 2014) left handed pitcher, who throws in the mid 90s, who is a tremendous athlete, would he be in the top 20 prospects? If no, how about if that junior had two years of professional extended spring training, a season of rookie ball, another half season of advanced rookie ball and another half Low A ball. He left Dayton three days before the end of the regular season and would not have had another start. Would he be a top 20 prospect? Don’t know about you but I would say yes.

      I agree I would like to see him concentrate on baseball but I am one who is glad we have him.

      As a side note, speaking of his athleticism, I saw a video of him on one of the road trips jump completely over Ismael Guillon (6’2″) to dunk a basketball.

      • Nick

        Good perspective, MK. At least he has some exposure to the system that has produced some quality arms of late (Cingrani, Stephenson, Bailey, etc.). Garrett’s has too much talent to dismiss. I’m sure it is difficult to play two sports at such a high level.

  11. Mel

    Few words on Beato. I know him well, scouted him in New York. We had him as a 1st rounder also.
    Big kid grew up in queens(looking at my notes)
    Went to a very strong baseball school. In fact was team-mates with Chris Manno for two years in High School and 5 years in travel ball.
    Great Great make up.
    I watched him pitch this year and love his sinker . Good action on his fastball, I think he is a very welcome addition to the pen. In fact I would not be surprised if he starts also

    • Doug Gray

      Seeing where he has gone from when he signed to the guy I saw pitch this summer, he had to put in some work. Pure athleticism can’t make up that kind of gap.

  12. terry m

    See where Chris Perez was released by the Indians. Think the REDS might have an interest ?? He got into trouble when marijuana was mailed to his home…

    • Doug Gray

      The talent is there. So it would be a matter of do you want to take the risk versus reward gamble.

  13. Mel

    They spent $1,000,000 on this kid Doug , are you out of your mind. They spent that kind of money and did not take the time to check this kids make-up. You will see how correct I am in the next year or 2 mark my words

    • Kris

      Mel,

      Do you enjoy being a miserable person who is attacking other human beings? There is a difference in being critical of someone’s performance and being a jerk. He’s still an actual person, believe it or not. Great article posted today about a former Oregon football player who returned to attend a game and saw this side of people.

      So much more enjoyable to be a sports fan and have FUN not post garbage like this. Doug is great. Have fun. Relax a bit. If Amir doesn’t pan out, all our lives will continue just as they were. And if he DOES pan out, would you like all of us to return to the form and tell you how horrible of a commenter you are and how you suck? I didn’t think so.

      Normally this site stays above these sort of comments and I wish it would stay that way.

      • Kris

        Sorry to all involved for the sheer number of typos in that last post by me. Typing too fast and with too much emotion. My tolerance for these sort of “fans” is just growing thin.

  14. DaveCT

    Hey Doug, how did you have Rogers and Moscot/lively so far apart? I get the part of Rogers’ projection as a reliver in your take, but I am not so sure we can’t say the same for Moscot and Lively’s eventual role. Rogers has also flat out pitched for two consecutive seasons now as a starter, so I, like others can still see his role in the back end of a rotation somewhere if not here. Which is pretty much the same for the other two. Thanks.

    • Doug Gray

      I just saw better stuff from the other two guys. Better projection IMO.

  15. Wally

    Kris I think your comments are on target. Mel you are being an ass

  16. Dan

    Apparently I’m missing something on Moscot. Did not expect that ranking at all.

  17. Mel

    Hey Wally and Kris How is being honest being miserable, I know this kid and his makeup, should I candy coat like both of you or should I be direct. I would never hurt anyone, but sometimes a person needs to hear the truth , I would love this kid to figure it out , he has a great arm, I have never argued that, but for Christ’s sake I am not going to walk on eggshells Kris because you want to be a proper contributor on this blog. I keep it real

    • Kris

      Doug isn’t going to call you out. I think time has proven he’s not that type of person, which I respect a lot. You can be direct without being a jerk. That’s a simple fact lost on a lot of people.

      Sorry to expect more intelligent and reasonable comments from people on this site. Go sift through the nonsense on Cincinnati.com’s comments section, then come back here, and you’ll see the difference that I believe most of us enjoy.

  18. Mel

    Doug if you dont like my post , and me being honest, I can just watch from the sidelines and not contribute

  19. Mel

    do not want to beat this to death and my last post on this site.. How is being honest being a jerk . I take offense to that. Maybe if someone was honest with this kid , he may live up to his potential. Good bye friend

    • Kris

      “Doug I think the world of you but trust me , ask his coaches at St Johns, ask his baseball coaches in the minors. The kid needs a wake up call. All the talent in the world but a work ethic of a dog in heat. Fact”

      The work ethic of a dog in heat? That’s not getting a little personal and being a jerk?

      “They spent $1,000,000 on this kid Doug , are you out of your mind. They spent that kind of money and did not take the time to check this kids make-up. You will see how correct I am in the next year or 2 mark my words”

      Everything there is also being a jerk. You are calling out Doug, you are hoping the kid fails. Not cool.

      Don’t make the comments PERSONAL, especially to Doug.

  20. Mel

    Kris you seem play judge and jury, I do not want to get into it with you but to be very honest, my words are the truth, if you dont like , dont read when I make a post. I never called out Doug and have always had high praise for him. So stop your ass kissing crap . You are trying to start trouble and thats not cool

  21. Doug Gray

    Hey guys, play nice. We all have our opinions, but lets not attack other users. Mel, you can hang out all you want, but let’s keep the language a little cleaner.

  22. JMO

    I wouldn’t even put Travieso in the Top 15. Walt missed the boat big time on passing on Wacha. At least he tried to right the ship this year by taking the best player available and that was Ervin. That is why Wacha should have been the pick, he was BPA. That is how we got Leake, Yonder, Grandal and Stephenson recently.