On Thursday afternoon the Arizona Fall League ended for the Reds team, the Glendale Desert Dogs after they failed to make the championship game that will be played on Saturday. Today I am going to take a look at each of the participants from the organization. Let’s start with the pitchers. Here are their stats:

Player W L ERA SV IP H HR BB K K/BB AVG
Drew Hayes 2 0 0.82 0 11.0 7 0 7 11 1.6 .184
Michael Lorenzen 0 3 11.42 0 17.1 29 4 12 5 0.4 .382
Chad Rogers 1 0 0.66 0 13.2 10 1 4 12 3.0 .200
Jamie Walczak 2 0 4.11 0 15.1 9 1 10 16 1.6 .180

Drew Hayes

Hayes posted a strong 0.82 ERA in 11 innings with 7 walks and 11 strikeouts while holding opposing hitters to a .184 average. His ERA, strikeouts and opponents average were all very good. What has held Hayes back has been his control issues and his 7 walks in 11 innings didn’t show any improvement in that department. He threw his 4-seam fastball, slider and mixed in a curveball during his time in the AFL (at least in the games where Pitch F/X was running). With control being an issue in the past for Hayes, the lack of improvement in that department leaves his stock unchanged.

Michael Lorenzen

Simply looking at the numbers for Lorenzen, you can’t help but think he would have been better off just working at the Reds complex in Arizona. He walked 12 batters with just 5 strikeouts in 17.1 innings and allowed 29 hits while posting an ERA of 11.42. Despite the ugly numbers, there were a few good things to come from the experience for Lorenzen. He added innings to his arm, which given that he threw less than 50 in his entire college career and the Reds are looking at him as a starter, is very important. He now knows what he will need to work on to have success at the higher levels of the minor leagues. He also had a chance to work on his change up, which he had never thrown much. While the move to starter boosts value, the early returns took that back. At least for now, I would say his stock remains unchanged.

Chad Rogers

After starting all season, Rogers headed to the bullpen in Arizona where he posted a 0.66 ERA in 13.2 innings with 4 walks and 12 strikeouts. Probably showing off the deepest repertoire of all relievers in the league, Rogers worked in a 4-seamer, sinker, cutter, slider and change up during his time in the Arizona Fall League. His fastball picked up a little velocity versus where it was as a starter, sitting 90-93 instead off 88-91. His strikeout rate was higher out of the bullpen than where it has been as a starter. Eligible for the first time for the upcoming Rule 5 draft, Rogers if his spot wasn’t already cemented, likely did so with his performance. His stock probably took a step forward, even if it was a small one.

Jamie Walczak

Walczak spent his time during the regular season as a reliever, but he made three starts in Arizona to go along with five appearances from the bullpen. His Arizona Fall League was bookended by two bad outings that combined for all 7 of his earned runs and all but one of the hits he allowed in his 15.1 innings, as well as 6 of his 10 walks in 2.1 innings. Like Hayes, control was a problem with Walczak in the regular season and his walk rate was rather high, though most of the walks came over two games. The Reds will have a choice to make on him for the Rule 5 Draft soon. His time in Arizona resembled what he did in Double-A, so his stock likely remained the same.

Now let’s take a look at the position players from the Reds who played in Arizona. First, the stats:

Player AB R 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB AVG OBP SLG OPS
Tucker Barnhart 49 5 3 0 0 2 9 7 0 .245 .356 .306 .662
Travis Mattair 72 7 3 0 2 7 9 16 0 .236 .325 .361 .686
Ryan LaMarre 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 .400 .500 .400 .900
Yorman Rodriguez 85 14 2 0 4 13 7 27 3 .271 .323 .435 .758

Tucker Barnhart

While Barnhart only hit .245, he walked more than he struck out and much like the rest of his career, hit well from the left side (.306). Reports coming out from national guys who were getting their first look at him talked of his good defense. His Arizona Fall League season resembled his 2013 regular season with just a little bit lower average. His stock likely remained the same and is a virtual lock to be added to the 40-man roster in a few weeks.

Travis Mattair

Mattair, much like in the regular season, split his time between first base and third base in Arizona. He struggled to hit for an average in just 72 bats, but he showed solid plate discipline and a little bit of pop. Reports talked of his good defense at the corners. His AFL season resembled much of his regular season, so his stock likely remained the same.

Ryan LaMarre

LaMarre only played in two games before suffering an ab injury that caused him to miss the rest of the season. His tools impressed Kiley McDaniel in the short stint that he was on he field. With hardly any time to actually do much on the field to change his stock.

Yorman Rodriguez

Rodriguez, like LaMarre, impressed Kiley McDaniel with his tools. His 4 home runs were 5th best in the league, just two behind the leader. He hit .271 and walked 7 times, but he struggled to make contact with 27 strikeouts. He showed off solid defense in center and good defense in right field. His time in Arizona resembled much of his regular season, and while he may have raised his stock nationally with exposure to some guys who haven’t seen him in a while, his Reds stock likely remained the same.

28 Responses

  1. Stock

    A WHIP of 2.3
    More than 6BB/9
    Less than 3K/9

    I guess he deserves a year to figure it out but not only are all three of those stats bad they are just out and out ugly.

    He obviously was overmatched in the AFL. I don’t really see him starting the year where he finished. Does he go back to Bakersfield or Dayton?

  2. Alan Horn

    What does the board think of trading Phillips and whomever for Colby Rasmus? That would mean not resigning Choo. I would still like to sign Infante for 2B. That would give us 4 lefties in the lineup(Votto, Bruce, Rasmus and Infante) and 4 righties in the lineup. We would need to obtain a strong RH bat for the bench to go with Heisey(unless we trade Heisey).

  3. WallyP

    Doug all my scouting buddies were very very positive on Yorman. I have the reports and most guys rate him very high

  4. sultan of swaff

    Rogers could be the next incarnation of Sam LeCure, but that’s a only a worthy comparison if there’s the makeup to go with the stuff. Still, very encouraging.

    Equally encouraging is YRod’s effort. It’s such a relief to see him progress to the point where you can reliably count on a certain level of performance. Because he finally established that floor, moving forward the focus can shift to maximizing his talent. Should be interesting.

  5. Norwood Nate

    Would it be possible, under the premise of moving Chapman to the starting rotation, to piggyback Rogers on Chapman’s starts? It would save the BP and allow Chapman time to stretch out his arm, and not work so many innings.

    4-5 innings for Chapman, 3-4 innings for Rogers and you have a rested BP for the other days. Because, realistically how many innings could Chapman work next year if a starter? 120? Is that too much of an increase? Because if given 4-5 innings (depending on pitch count) and skipped an occasional start when off days allow, he could pitch the whole year on this system if it were working.

    Rogers would be a drastic change of pace from Chapman, and certainly has the pitch repertoire to keep hitters off balance. Also, with Chapman in the rotation we’d open a spot in the BP. Hoover, LeCure, Marshall, Broxton, Simon, Parra (hopefully resigned) and then Rogers (who I think would be an upgrade over Ondru anyway). Just a thought.

    • Doug Gray

      I think Chapman could be safe at about 150 this year given his previous high workload of 125, even though it was a while ago. It certainly is an interesting idea to piggy back the two guys, though it would shorthand your bullpen and I think that is why you won’t see it happen.

  6. Scott from upstate NY

    Doug: What kind of prospect return are you expecting for Hanigan? Would you expect a prospect better than say Barnhart? I’m thinking a #8 to #10 prospect depth from an average talented club.

    • Doug Gray

      It is possible. I just don’t know though. I think it is tough to get a good read on Hanigans trade value at this point. After the season he just had, and his impending free agency after the season, I just wouldn’t trade much for him. But, hearing all of the teams interested makes me think I am missing something.

      • doctor

        it feels like that teams are seeing a lack of catcher depth for decent backups who are not completely a black hole at the plate. Expectations for a 2014 hanigan is an offensive bounce back where he hits .250, gets on base some, and still is good catch-n-throw type of guy who can start on a semi-regular basis if needed.

    • MK

      Scott you were probably right on a year ago. I think you would look at a AAA player who was a high draft pack but never performed and needs a change of scenery and a descent High A prospect.

      • KyWilson1

        I agree with the high draft pick that hasnt lived up to the hype, and the one that keeps popping in my mind is Tim Beckham. The Rays seem like a perfect match with the need of a C and he could at worst be the Reds bench utility guy this year. or he could thrive in a change of scenery like BP did and become the SS or 2b of the future.

      • Kevin

        I agree on this, and have mentioned previously the parallels btwn Beckham and Brandon Phillips just before he came to the Reds.

        Also, I think the thing that you’re missing Doug is Hanigan’s pitch-framing ability. I think that skillset is starting to get valued very highly. And we may have already reached the point where a formerly undervalued skill is now overvalued. Frankly the numbers, particularly the ones the Rays have calculated and leaked, belie intuition on how many runs are actually saved with a good pitch-framer behind the dish.

        It’s almost like the Rays put that story out there to rope-a-dope other teams into overvaluing that skillset. If so, that’s genius.

    • Doug Gray

      Old timers? I am not even 30 yet and can’t wait to watch it next week (leaving for an out of town wedding in about 15 minutes, so I won’t have much time this weekend).

      • jim t

        LOL. I think you’ll enjoy it. Found it on the Cincy com site.I actually rremember listening to him lose a 11 inning no no against the mets on a home run. i believe Johnny Lewis hit it. Maloney was a horse.

    • Alan Horn

      Great video Jim. Maloney was one of the all time great pitchers. I had forgotten about how much heat he had. That and the high mound back then. I’m at work and only watched a few minutes(will watch more tonight). What do you think about my trade proposal above. Phillips and Hannigan for Rasmus and signing Infante for 2B?

      • jim t

        Alan, I really like the idea of signing Infante. Would really like to have a impact RH bat either for 3rd or LF If i am gonig to package Hannigan and BP and possibly a starting pitcher. I would also like it to be some one who is team controlled for a while. a good youngster if you will.With the reds slary structure what it is i really think that is how it will have to be done. Would use the salary relief to extend some of the young starting pitchers we have.

      • Alan Horn

        Jim, my thinking is Rasmus would replace Choo(both LH). Rasmus would not provide the on base skills of Choo but would have more power and may be better defensively in CF. When Hamilton arrives, I agree we would be too much LH if we sign Infante also. But hopefully, Ervin arrives pretty soon after that. For next year the balance isn’t impacted much if Ludwick is able to produce. The question down the road is whether to play Hamilton at 2B or CF and making room for Winker and Ervin. Yorman could well play into the mix fairly soon and that could be our CF(if you move Hamilton to 2B)mai and RH bat. Right now our goal should be winning next season.

      • Alan Horn

        My memory is fading. It has been a while since he was with the Braves, but I remember he was pretty good at 2B. He would be probably about half as cheap as Phillips(if we signed him for 3 years).

    • Krozley

      Maloney’s pitching career was done when he was 29, although he hung around for a couple years. With today’s mindset, it makes one wonder had his pitch count and innings been watched as pitchers are today if he would have lasted longer and maybe been a hall-of-famer. I think his injuries were leg related though.

      • terry m

        Wayne Simpson and Gary Nolan were a couple of VERY good pitchers who had short career’s back in that era who were overworked…

      • MK

        Gary Nolan had some injuries but he had 10 years in the big leagues and won 110 games.

      • terry m

        Nolan was drafted in 66 and started his first game with the Reds in 67 as an 18 year old. In 67 he threw 227 innings. Big stuff for an 18 year old. He did play for 10 years but he did have arm problems his entire career. In 73 and 74 he pitched a total of 10 innings. He was operated on by Dr. Jobe also. He had a strained relationship with the Reds as he often complained of arm problems. In that era they were told to get on the mound and pitch thru the pain. Just think about it 227 innings in your first year in the majors at age 18. When Nolan was young he had a great fastball and curve and great control. When his fb slowed down he relied on control more than anything.

    • chi redsfan

      that was an awesome tape, with the narrow scope felt like a tunnel back into time

      1965 baseball in color…w/Reds no less and Wrigley…Rose without the deep crouch stance…that was an ugly no hitter 10!! walks almost gave up a run every inning…Cubs batted Jackson with two guys on in ninth 0-0…Maloney was so underrated, same age as Rose but could not keep health until the Big Red Machine emerged..Gullet of the 60′s for Reds…and oh btw last year w/F. Robbie in Reds uniform before worst trade in Reds history

  7. chi redsfan

    btw all four games of the 1976 World Series can be watched on youtube…to see the pinnacle of the Big Red Machine in action one last series is great…had forgotten how aggressive Sparky was with running…and the lack of over the top production by NBC is a nice contrast to current WS coverage…weird hearing Brenneman provide relatively understated color commentary for Kubek/Garagiola…