What do the 2014 Cincinnati Reds ZiPS say about prospects? Doug Gray January 8, 2014 10 Comments Dan Szymborski has released his 2014 Cincinnati Reds ZiPS projections today at Fangraphs. While the projections are simply that, projections. Historically speaking, ZiPS and other projection systems are much more accurate at projecting proven MLB players than minor league players. The reason for that is simple: They have more data to work with. With that said, let’s take a look at what the ZiPS projections say about some minor leaguers. Billy Hamilton is the guy from the minor leagues who will be the most likely to garner true playing time in the 2014 season. He has a big task ahead of him, taking over for Shin-Soo Choo in center field. While their games are very different, they both could provide plenty of value. ZiPS projects Hamilton to hit .264/.319/.362, which to this point is the friendliest projection I have seen on Hamilton. It also says he will steal 68 bases. The system projects him as an above-average defender as well and to provide 2.5 WAR, which would tie him with Brandon Phillips as the 3rd best position player in the projections. To be perfectly honest, I think the offensive projection may be a tad too high (though not unrealistic at all) and the defensive value a bit too low. What about the other minor leaguers? Tucker Barnhart rates out very favorably in the new ZiPS projections. He rates out much better than current backup Brayan Pena and just below projected starter Devin Mesoraco. Barnhart is projected to hit .249/.309/.350 if he were sent to the Major Leagues this year. He makes up plenty of value defensively where he is rated on par with Brandon Phillips in the defensive grade category. Neftali Soto and Ryan LaMarre also find themselves on the positive side of the ledger. Soto is projected to hit .238/.280/.405 with 22 doubles and 20 home runs (if he played a full season). That doesn’t seem unreasonable for him. The power will play, but his plate discipline would probably hold him back from hitting for an average. LaMarre is projected to hit .236/.296/.326 with 17 doubles, 7 homers and 24 steals. That also seems pretty reasonable, though LaMarre’s second half surge could sway things slightly. The system also gives LaMarre a positive defensive rating, on par with Chris Heisey. I think he is a bit better defensively than Heisey is, so my brain adjusts that slightly upward. On the pitching side of things there are several guys to look into. The first is top prospect Robert Stephenson. He barely pitched at the Double-A level with Pensacola this season, so the system only projected him for 100.2 innings. It did however give him 90 strikeouts and 42 walks to go with a 4.56 ERA. On the surface that seems reasonable, though I also want to note that I believe he could go out and perform much better than that too. With his projections it gives Stephenson a WAR of 0.6. Carlos Contreras is an interesting case here, as the system projects him as a starting pitcher, while I feel there is very little chance that he is anything but a reliever for the Reds. Still, the system projects him for 124 innings and 91 strikeouts to go with a 4.72 ERA. It does project him for 70 walks too, which is an awful lot, but if he starts it wouldn’t surprise me. If he were a reliever, which I believe he will be when he reached the Majors, I would expect that walk rate to be quite a bit lower. Jon Moscot is the next prospect on the pitching list, projecting him for 104.2 innings, 78 strikeouts and 41 walks to go with a 4.82 ERA. Those numbers seem on target for this year if he were to get that much playing time. Like Stephenson, Moscot didn’t spend much time in Double-A, so the projections are reaching pretty far down for him to find comps to work with for him. Newly acquired David Holmberg rounds out the top 4 among pitching prospects. He finds himself slightly below 0.0 on the WAR scale, coming in at -0.1. The system projects him for 147 innings, 88 strikeouts, 56 walks and a 5.14 ERA. While my views on him are limited to a few starts in the 2013 season, those numbers look right to me if he were to jump directly to the Majors. The entire projections are available, sans Yorman Rodriguez (Dan thought he had included him, but for now it isn’t showing up on Fangraphs, so it may appear later), for most prospects who were in at least Pensacola or Louisville and some who were in Bakersfield as well as all Major Leaguers. Go check them out and remember that these are all based on numbers and regression to the average (so a guy like Joey Votto who continuously beats BABIP because of his lack of pop ups gets dinged back to normalish areas because he is such an outlier that the system isn’t built for him). So go check them out. They project the Reds, when coupled with fangraphs projected playing time, to be an 89 win team in the 2014 season. 10 Responses MK January 8, 2014 I could live with the Hamilton numbers. Doug Gray January 8, 2014 If that slash line is what Hamilton produces, I will gladly take it. I would still wish he would hit lower in the lineup, but won’t complain much with that line. DaveCT January 8, 2014 I wonder if his 1st/2nd half splits will reflect his pattern of late, fair then pretty godd. Mauired January 8, 2014 Since Bailey obviously wants more than the Reds are comfortable giving, they should try to improve their offense and get some talent while they can. I don’t like the idea of keeping him and hoping he has a good year and stays healthy, then they get a draft pick after the first round. Thats a lottery ticket. Homer was a top ten pick and took years to become a solid MLB pitcher. I would love to see Walt do a deal with the Rangers. How bout Bailey, Hoover and Cozart for Matt Harrison and Jurickson Profar? Harrison gives the Reds a second lefty for the rotation at an affordable price and Profar could be great hitting second between Hamilton and Votto. The Reds could then start focusing on signing Latos to a longterm deal, who I feel is the Reds number 1 anyway. Doug Gray January 8, 2014 You can’t compete in 2014 by trading Homer Bailey unless you get back a pitcher of his caliber, in which case why make the trade? I just can’t see the team trading him before July rolls around. Alan Horn January 8, 2014 I fail to understand why fans don’t see that Doug. Same for Phillips and Latos. You don’t temporarily fix one hole(Gardner) when you have Hamilton and open an even bigger hole at 2B if you trade Phillips. The net on the offense would be a big negative. I would have liked to have signed Infante if we had traded Phillips but the money would be about the same. In that case, why trade Phillips? Profar didn’t hit much this past season in the majors. If that continues, it would be a bad trade. MK January 8, 2014 Why would the Reds even consider this deal. You are giving a pitcher with #1 stuff, their potential closer of the future and starting shortstop for a pitcher shutdown last year in August from back surgery and a highly regarded prospect that has not proven he can get it done in the big leagues. This type move could turn them from contender to pretender with no chance of improving the team in 2014. DaveCT January 8, 2014 I think part of this is lack of recognition of what Bailey brings, besides 95 mph heat. He is a highly effective starter, under team control and still a good value at his 9 mil. To trade him, we’d need someone to replace Cingrani who would be replacing Bailey PLUS a compelling reason to make the deal. such as taking Ludwick’s contract and providing his replacement. In other words, a # 4/5 starter and a stud in LF. I wouldn’t underestimate Walt but still … MDRon January 8, 2014 If Hamilton OBPs .319, he’ll swipe more bags than that. Jim t January 8, 2014 If nothing else the reds will be fun to watch. Hamilton will provide plenty of excitement in the field,on the bases and at bat. How much excitement will depend on how well he hits. If he hits 250 there will be lots of excitement. It will be fun watching how it all plays out.