Which levels had the most prospect value during the 2013 season?

Reader Billy had a good idea the other day when I looked at how the farm system has progressed/compared to the last four seasons. He had the idea to break the value down by the level/team that the guys played for. I chose to go with the level because David Holmberg made it into the list and he didn’t play for any of the Reds teams this year since he was acquired via trade after the season was over. To figure out the value per team, I took the % of innings or plate appearances and multiplied it by each players overall value based on the system using John Sickels Reds grades and the values figured out by Victor Wang and Beyond the Box Score. Then I just accumulated the total values per level played at by the guys who were given value in the system.

sickelsbylevel

A-Ball was a clear and heavy winner with nearly double the value of the AAA and RK+ levels who had big advantages over the A+ and AA levels. The lowest level of rookie ball came in dead last, garnering just a small portion of the value provided by the one inning pitched there by Michael Lorenzen. Billy Hamilton and David Holmberg provided the small value at the Major League level. Here is a full breakdown of how each of the players values were broken down.

Player Grade Value RK- RK+ A A- AA AAA MLB
Robert Stephenson A 14.20 0.00 0.00 9.56 2.57 2.07 0.00 0.00
Billy Hamilton B+ 20.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 0.80
Phillip Ervin B+ 20.80 0.00 15.50 5.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jesse Winker B+ 20.80 0.00 0.00 20.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
David Holmberg B- 6.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.35 0.00 0.15
Michael Lorenzen B- 6.50 0.31 0.00 2.58 1.76 1.86 0.00 0.00
Ben Lively B- 6.50 0.00 5.87 0.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Carlos Contreras C+ 2.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.77 0.83 0.00 0.00
Yorman Rodriguez C+ 0.88 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.43 0.45 0.00 0.00
Jon Moscot C+ 2.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.05 0.55 0.00 0.00
Nick Travieso C+ 2.60 0.00 0.00 2.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Seth Mejias-Brean C+ 0.88 0.00 0.00 0.86 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
Daniel Corcino C+ 2.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.60 0.00

If you notice from the chart above, despite the best grade of anyone, Robert Stephenson was actually worth less than Hamilton, Ervin and Winker. That is due to the fact that historically, pitchers tend to get hurt and flop as prospects more than position players, and the study showed that overall they produced less value because of it. It is the opposite for the bottom of the spectrum, where pitchers are more valuable than hitters because of their likelihood to break out.

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