Which levels had the most prospect value during the 2013 season? Doug Gray January 30, 2014 15 Comments Reader Billy had a good idea the other day when I looked at how the farm system has progressed/compared to the last four seasons. He had the idea to break the value down by the level/team that the guys played for. I chose to go with the level because David Holmberg made it into the list and he didn’t play for any of the Reds teams this year since he was acquired via trade after the season was over. To figure out the value per team, I took the % of innings or plate appearances and multiplied it by each players overall value based on the system using John Sickels Reds grades and the values figured out by Victor Wang and Beyond the Box Score. Then I just accumulated the total values per level played at by the guys who were given value in the system. A-Ball was a clear and heavy winner with nearly double the value of the AAA and RK+ levels who had big advantages over the A+ and AA levels. The lowest level of rookie ball came in dead last, garnering just a small portion of the value provided by the one inning pitched there by Michael Lorenzen. Billy Hamilton and David Holmberg provided the small value at the Major League level. Here is a full breakdown of how each of the players values were broken down. Player Grade Value RK- RK+ A A- AA AAA MLB Robert Stephenson A 14.20 0.00 0.00 9.56 2.57 2.07 0.00 0.00 Billy Hamilton B+ 20.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 0.80 Phillip Ervin B+ 20.80 0.00 15.50 5.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Jesse Winker B+ 20.80 0.00 0.00 20.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 David Holmberg B- 6.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.35 0.00 0.15 Michael Lorenzen B- 6.50 0.31 0.00 2.58 1.76 1.86 0.00 0.00 Ben Lively B- 6.50 0.00 5.87 0.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Carlos Contreras C+ 2.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.77 0.83 0.00 0.00 Yorman Rodriguez C+ 0.88 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.43 0.45 0.00 0.00 Jon Moscot C+ 2.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.05 0.55 0.00 0.00 Nick Travieso C+ 2.60 0.00 0.00 2.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Seth Mejias-Brean C+ 0.88 0.00 0.00 0.86 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 Daniel Corcino C+ 2.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.60 0.00 If you notice from the chart above, despite the best grade of anyone, Robert Stephenson was actually worth less than Hamilton, Ervin and Winker. That is due to the fact that historically, pitchers tend to get hurt and flop as prospects more than position players, and the study showed that overall they produced less value because of it. It is the opposite for the bottom of the spectrum, where pitchers are more valuable than hitters because of their likelihood to break out. 15 Responses Alan Horn January 30, 2014 For most everyone on this board, I know you are used to snow. We have had 2 days of it down here in Alabama and I thoroughly hate it. It stops everything down here. I am trying to take care of my 12 dogs and they chew my electrical cords into for the heat lamps I am running to the dog pens. It got down to 11 degrees in south Alabama and they also had snow and ice on the beaches. Hopefully, it will melt today. MK January 30, 2014 Alan, may I speak for all of we Ohioans: Boo Hoo. Alan Horn January 30, 2014 Snow is a way of life for all of you. It messes up my hunting and most everything else I do down here. We don’t have snow plows etc down here. It is really a 3 ring circus when it snows. I think around 5 or us made it in to work out of around 60. You can’t travel the roads. Making it up hills is near impossible. They do sand the bridges and that it about it. If you can’t make it to the bridge you are out of luck. I hate the extreme hot(100+ degrees with high humidity), but I think snow tops that. Randy in Chatt January 30, 2014 I’ve lived in western Kansas, Arkansas, Colorado, the Detroit area and now southern Tennessee and by far, the south is the least prepared to deal with weather like this. No real need to spend resources on things that may not be used. Michigan would have had the roads that stifled our area the last two days cleared off, sanded and salted within 2 hours. But I do know one thing Alan & MK, cold is still cold. I feel like I’m back in Michigan…..yikes. Maybe it is time to go to spring training in AZ. Cannot wait for the day pitchers and catchers report and think about the very warm Arizona sun!!!! Doug Gray January 30, 2014 The cold sure sucks doesn’t it? I equate a dusting or so in the south to a foot here in the north simply because the municipalities aren’t equipped or prepared to handle it. Alan Horn January 30, 2014 That’s true. Plus, the drivers are more dangerous because they don’t know how to drive in it down here. Thomas Felsmaier January 30, 2014 I’ve lived in Florida almost my entire life but have spent a few years in Ohio and Illinois as well. The weather the past two days in Pensacola was horrendous. I didn’t get any snow, but instead had half an inch of ice. I would rather have had 3″ or so of snow. Pretty much every bridge was closed and still is as well as over 200 miles of interstate. No one here (even county governments) knows how to handle the weather or drive in it. Alan Horn January 30, 2014 That’s correct Thomas. The best thing to do is stay in the house until it is over. IndyRedsFan January 30, 2014 When I lived in the South, the joke was that southern states practiced the Biblical Method of Snow Removal. “The Good Lord put it there, the Good Lord will take it away” Alan Horn January 30, 2014 That is no joke. That is the truth. Right now a bright sunny day is removing the snow. The good news down here is it only lasts a couple of days. Anything extended beyond that would really be bad. Billy January 30, 2014 Thanks, Doug! How does this distribution compare to years past? Obviously the value in the system is skewed young this season, but is that a trend or a new thing? Doug Gray January 30, 2014 I am honestly not sure. It is tougher to track down the rankings from John’s site in the past years than it is for this year. MK January 30, 2014 I wonder what role team success has on the value of the individuals. As an example does Jesse Winker’s value measure suffer if he is promoted to Bakersfield at mid season? Dayton, even with a losing record, had the best team win/loss record in the system and the chart shows the highest value, while I think Bakersfield was rated one of the worst teams in baseball in 2013. RMR January 30, 2014 Not that you have to do the math, but if you wanted to: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/12/21/1889805/cincinnati-reds-top-20-prospects-for-2011 http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/1/8/2691712/cincinnati-reds-top-20-prospects-for-2012 http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/1/13/3871536/cincinnati-reds-top-20-prospects-for-2013 Doug Gray January 30, 2014 RMR to the rescue! I swear I have been unable to find some of those in the past (to be fair, it was before SB Nation re-did their entire layout).