A first look at the 2014 draft Doug Gray May 3, 2014 10 Comments The draft is coming up in about a month with the draft going from June 5th-7th to cover all 40 rounds. The Reds will draft 19th, 29th (compensation for Choo), 59th, 95th and 126th of the draft, covering the first four rounds. They will then drafted every 30th pick after their 4th round selection as all of the compensation picks have been accounted for. Baseball America last updated their Top 50 draft prospects on April 10th. The MLB.com Top 100 draft prospects list was updated last week. Let’s take a look at some of the players that have been taken in the first three spots that the Reds will be choosing from. Two years ago the Cardinals landed Michael Wacha with the 19th pick. Three years before that they used the 19th pick to land Shelby Miller. The Cubs grabbed Andrew Cashner with the pick in 2008. Alex Rios was the 19th overall pick in 1999. Way back in 1983 some guy named Roger Clemens was taken with the 19th overall pick. Going back even further Bobby Grich went 19th overall in the 1967 draft. The Reds have had the pick before, taking Ron Robinson in 1980. The 29th spot in the draft hasn’t has as much immediate success as the 19th spot. You have to go back to the 2003 draft to find an every day player who has shown success when the Diamondbacks took Carlos Quintin, though Lonnie Chisenhall is doing his best in 2014 to add the 2008 draft to that list. The Atlanta Braves took Adam Wainwright 29th overall back in the 2000 draft. Way back in the1971 draft Hall of Famer George Brett was selected 29th overall by the Royals. Bill Swift from the 1983 draft joins Wainwright and Brett as the only 20 WAR players selected with the 29th overall pick. We only have to go back to the 2009 draft before we find Rockies starting third baseman Nolan Arenado for the 59th pick. Ryan Doumit was taken with the 59th overall pick in the 1999 draft. Heading into the 80’s we see the two most successful (by WAR) picks that went 59th overall. In 1986 the Rangers took Dean Palmer with their selection. Then in 1982 the pride of my high school Roger McDowell was selected by the Mets. Looking back at the Reds top 60 picks over the course of the Chris Buckley administration we start to see a bit of a pattern or three. Here are the picks. Year Pick Player Position From 2006 8 Drew Stubbs OF College 2006 52 Sean Watson RHP College 2007 15 Devin Mesoraco C High School 2007 34 Todd Frazier SS College 2007 53 Kyle Lotzkar RHP High School 2008 7 Yonder Alonso 1B College 2009 8 Mike Leake RHP College 2009 43 Brad Boxberger RHP College 2009 57 Billy Hamilton SS High School 2010 12 Yasmani Grandal C College 2011 27 Robert Stephenson RHP High School 2012 14 Nick Travieso RHP High School 2012 49 Jesse Winker OF High School 2012 57 Jeff Gelalich OF College 2013 27 Phillip Ervin OF College 2013 38 Michael Lorenzen RHP College The thing that jumps out to me, other than Yonder Alonso sticking out like a sore thumb as a non-up-the-middle player or pitcher, is that when you get inside of the top 12 picks, the Reds solely went with college players. When you get between the 13th and 30th pick in the draft the Reds went with high schoolers with the lone exception of Phillip Ervin last season. The team has continuously stated that they take the best player available when their pick comes up, and I don’t doubt that to be true, but it has played out pretty well that early on they have leaned college guys, but in the middle and late first rounds they have leaned a bit towards high school players. While the Reds picking 19th and 29th, history at least suggests that they will be taking a high schooler or two with those picks. With the 59th pick things, at least historically seem to be wide open as they have gone with high school and college guys in that range. The other thing worth noting is that there are still “draft spending caps”. The Reds, assuming that they sign all of their first 10 round picks, can spend up to $6,973,400 on their picks. At this point in time the Reds haven’t really been linked to any specific player, though drafting in the late teens makes it a bit tougher to know who is going to be available at a given spot. Starting this week, there will be two posts a week looking at potential draft picks for the Reds in the 2014 draft. 10 Responses nycdave May 3, 2014 I would love to see them draft an offensive-minded middle infielder from the college ranks. A guy who will move through the system quickly. Doug Gray May 3, 2014 That guy probably doesn’t exist. A front office exec said a few weeks ago that Trea Turner is probably the only college shortstop that will go in the Top 200 picks. Alan Horn May 3, 2014 Is would like to see them draft a top college bat that is close to being ready. The Reds at this point have no good hitting prospects that are close. Outfield would be my choice. We can live with Cozart if the other guys in the 3-5 holes do what they are needed to do. The Duke May 4, 2014 Giving up on Ervin, Winker, Waldrop, Lutz, and YRod? No player we draft would be ready before one of those guys if any of them put it together Doug Gray May 4, 2014 Drafting that late in the first round, there is no way, unless Jesse Winker winds up hurt two years in a row, that anyone we pick there is ready before he is. The other guys, I still have a question or two about. Winker? He just needs to stay healthy. Guy May 4, 2014 *Knocks on wood* MK May 3, 2014 I guess I am for the best player available. I doubt there will be a player close as Alan speaks of that late in the first round. If there is a power arm there, maybe a lefty, I don’t think there is a problem with stockpiling arms. Great arms can be traded for hitters. Look at Latos deal as it took two first round hitters to get a great arm. Guy May 4, 2014 I think another problem too is that many drafted shortstops end up playing other positions. Even a couple of guys on the MLB.com list were mentioned as being possible third basemen. I know Frazier, soto, Hamilton and Phillips were all drafted as shortstops and ended up moving elsewhere. Both upton brothers were drafted at shortstop, and moved positions. We even have a couple minor league guys like that too Doug Gray May 4, 2014 Yep. The amount of guys that can actually play defense at shortstop at the big league level is very small. Ryan K May 5, 2014 I think the Reds are in an interesting spot with 19th picks because there is going to be some HS guys in that area with potential like Gatewood and Davidson. Davidson has a lot of limitations defensively though. I think a name that will be interesting to watch is Cameron Varga from Cincinnati Hills Christian Academy. Kieth Law ranks him a lot higher than other people, but he is originally from Florida and was committed to them. He changed his committment to UNC, but I wonder if the Reds would be able to convince him to sign I think something that may factor into his decision is he that he will be turning 20 in August and making him one of the oldest HS prospects. This will be an exciting draft with 3 picks in the top 60 and I am looking forward to all of your coverage Doug. I know its a busy time and a lot of hardwork.