Minor League Game Review – 6/12/14 Doug Gray June 13, 2014 72 Comments Louisville won 6-2. Box Score Jason Bourgeois went 2-4 with a walk and an RBI. Ruben Gotay went 1-3 with a walk. Neftali Soto went 2-2. Donald Lutz went 1-3 with a walk and a solo HR (8). Chris Nelson went 2-4 with 2 runs. Tucker Barnhart went 1-4 with a run. Argenis Diaz went 1-4 with a run. Shelley Duncan went 1-1 with a HR (1) and 3 RBI. Josh Smith allowed 2 runs in 7 innings with 5 walks and 7 strikeouts. Elvin Ramirez threw a perfect inning with 2 strikeouts. Jumbo Diaz threw a shutout inning. Game Notes Josh Smith took the mound to begin the game and gave up two runs right out of the gate as Gwinnett took a 2-0 lead in the first. Smith didn’t allow another run the rest of his game, throwing six shutout innings to follow. He left after the top of the seventh and was trailing 2-0 as the offense had yet to get going, but that all changed in the bottom of the inning as Shelley Duncan hit a pinch-hit 3-run homer to put the Bats ahead. Elvin Ramirez came on and threw a perfect eighth inning and Louisville came back out and put three more runs on the board with a Donald Lutz solo home run being the highlight. Pensacola lost 6-3. Box Score Rey Navarro went 1-4 with a solo HR (9). Ross Perez went 1-3 with a double, walk and a run. Travis Mattair went 0-2 with a run and 2 walks. Brodie Greene went 1-1 as a pinch hitter. Ray Chang went 1-3. Jamie Walczak threw 1.1 hitless innings with 2 walks and 2 strikeouts. Justin Freeman threw a shutout inning with a strikeout. Game Notes Jon Moscot had a rough start that was hampered by some defensive issues as well. He ran into trouble in the fourth inning as he allowed four runs, with three being earned and when the inning was over the Blue Wahoos trailed 6-3. Neither team scored moving forward as the bullpens locked things down on both sides. Pensacola managed just five hits in the game with the biggest being a solo home run by Rey Navarro. Bakersfield won 12-2. Box Score Juan Silva went 3-6 with a double, 2 runs, 2 steals (31) and 3 RBI. Jesse Winker went 1-3 with an RBI, run and 2 walks. Marquez Smith went 3-4 with a walk, HR (15), 2 runs and 3 RBI. Kyle Waldrop went 1-2 with 2 walks, a run and an RBI. Seth Mejias-Brean went 1-4 with a double, walk, RBI and a run. John Tolisano went 2-4 with a walk and 2 runs. Mike Dennhardt allowed 2 runs in 7 innings with 2 walks and 7 strikeouts. Jimmy Moran threw 2 shutout innings with 3 strikeouts. Game Notes The pitching was strong on the day as Mike Dennhardt threw seven strong innings, allowing just two runs with seven strikeouts. He handed the ball off to Jimmy Moran for the final two innings and Moran shut things down with two scoreless frames to go along with three strikeouts. The offense put together another big game, a night after scoring 19 runs they added 12 more. Marquez Smith homered again and drove in three runs. Juan Silva had a big game as he had three hits and drove in three bases while also stealing two bags to push his total to 31 on the season. The win keeps them one game ahead of Lancaster for the best record in the California League as the two division winners are battling it out for the best record in the first half. The Blaze are up by one game with two left in the first half. Dayton won 3-1. Box Score Jon Matthews went 1-3 with a double and a run. Avain Rachal went 1-2. Joe Hudson went 1-3 with an RBI and a run. Carlton Daal went 1-2 with a double and a run. Luke Moran threw 4 shutout innings with 3 walks and 3 strikeouts. Ryan Kemp allowed a run in 3 innings with a walk and 4 strikeouts. Joel Bender threw a hitless inning. Layne Somsen threw a perfect inning with 2 strikeouts. Game Notes Pitching was strong on both sides as the teams combined for just 11 hits and four runs, but the Dragons pitching got the better of things today. Luke Moran threw the first our innings without allowing a run. He gave way to Ryan Kemp for three innings after that, giving up the lone run of the day in the sixth inning, which gave Bowling Green the 1-0 lead. Kemp left the game after seven innings trailing 1-0. Joel Bender hit a batter, but kept everyone else off base to keep the deficit at 1-0. The bottom of the eighth marked a rally and a comeback that started with a Jon Matthews double. He later scored on a ground out to tie the game. Carlton Daal doubled to move Joe Hudson to third and Hudson scored on a sac fly to give the Dragons the lead. Daal scored on a wild pitch to pad the lead even further. Layne Somsen came on for the top of the 9th with the 3-1 Dayton lead and shut things down with two strikeouts in a perfect inning of work. 6/13 Game Preview Team 1st half 2nd half Time (EST) Probable Box Score Listen Live Watch Live Louisville 34-34 N/A 7:15pm Jurrjens Here Here Here Pensacola 29-38 N/A 8:05pm TBA Here Here Here Bakersfield 44-24 N/A 10:45pm Peralta Here Here N/A Dayton 35-30 N/A 7:00pm Guillon Here Here Here 72 Responses The Duke June 13, 2014 Going to the Dragons game tonight. Looking forward to seeing Ervin, Elizalde, and Daal in person. Interested to see how Guillon looks vs in years past. zblakey June 13, 2014 Wasn’t it Stephenson’s turn last night for Pensacola? Any news jim t June 13, 2014 Zblakey, was wondering the same thing. MK June 13, 2014 Not sure that with this being mid-season they aren’t giving some top prospects a rest by taking a turn off. Travieso has missed a start as well. David June 13, 2014 Last night the Wahoos radio guy said that Moscot and Stephenson were just flipped, and that Stephenson will go tonight. He also said the O’Brien will go Saturday, and they are skipping Lorenzen completely to save some innings, so Sunday will be a bullpen day. jim t June 13, 2014 Thanks David jim t June 13, 2014 Does Cingrani go to the Bull pen or head to Louisvile and stay in rotation? If it was me I’d send him down and keep him stretched out in case of injury to rotation. Krozley June 13, 2014 I agree that I’d send him down to keep starting and work on his secondary pitches. The bullpen has been better over the last month with Hoover and Ondrusek coming around, so I’m not sure he would really improve things there right now. I’d keep him stretched out in case he’s needed later in the year and build his innings for 2015. I fear, however, that ultimately his future will be in the pen. jim t June 13, 2014 Really excited to see how this next stretch of games plays out. Latos and Votto back and the Bull pen seems to be healing up and getting some outs. If we can win the next 3 series, we good find our way back in the division race. The starting rotation can be scary good if Latos is back to form. Bruce seems to be seeing the ball better and Joey looks like he is ready to go on a roll. The stars may be lining up for a nice run begining in Mil. Alan Horn June 13, 2014 I agree Jim. By the end of this month or the all star game we should have a good read on where we are. Daryl June 13, 2014 Travieso is listed on Billings roster. Doug Gray June 13, 2014 It’s just a paper move to give the Dragons an extra player since he was skipped in the rotation. Alan Horn June 13, 2014 Is there anyone out there that still thinks Chase Headley is better than Todd Frazier? Or even close for that matter. Nick June 13, 2014 Frazier has easily been the Reds best position player this year. Hope he can keep it up and doesn’t regress much. Some positive signs with his walk rate and slightly better O-Swing%. Phenomenal defense as we’ve come to expect. jim t June 13, 2014 Can’t disagree with you Nick. If him and Mez provide the RH pop this line up needs left field doesn’t have to include Ludwick in my opinion. Using Shoemacher in LF and batting him in front of Joey in the two hole is a good move against Right handers. jim t June 13, 2014 Not I. is ther anyone out there still wanting to trade Bailey. He is on a nice roll. Cueto is absolutely scary good right now. If the reds can get some consistent offense they could make a run.If they close the gap between themselves and the brew crew before the deadline it will be interesting to see if Big Bob opens his wallet and allows Walt to beat the bushes for a proven hitter. With the starters the reds can run out at you and the back end of Broxton and Chapman in the pen I would hate to face them in a series. It will be tough to do considering Ludwick makes 7.5 and a real hitter will cost some money as well but if team is in the race the time may be NOW for big BOB to act. and please i hope no one thinks we can deal Ludwick. At 7.5mil this year and 4.5 to buy hm out next year it ain’t happening. Should be a interesting time until the All star Break. Alan Horn June 13, 2014 We missed the boat by not signing Cruz. I wonder if he is still available. He only signed a one year deal with Baltimore. Jasonp June 13, 2014 I think we should try and trade Ludwick and offer to send 4.5 mil along with him so the other team could buy him out next year if they don’t want him back. I think we would save most of that 4.5 mil by not having him on the roster for the rest of the year and then don’t have to spend 7.5 mil on him next year or the 4.5 mil for the buyout. Nick June 13, 2014 Trading Ludwick would be wonderful but who would take him? If you were another team, would you trade anything at all for Ryan Ludwick at this point in his career? I can’t imagine the Reds getting rid of Ludwick unless he is a salary dump in some other deal. Jim t June 13, 2014 Ludwick is not tradeable. Who do you think would want him? Just paying some of his salary wouldn’t be enough to move him. We want to give him away,why would some one want him. What could he provide another team. Jasonp June 13, 2014 It would be for us a salary dump. I would not expect anything for him. It would save us money on the next year. It wouldn’t only be a salary dump though it opens up left field for a better player. If we add 4.5 mil to pay for his buyout next year to the team we trade him to it means that we would end up paying around 1 more mil this year then we would have paid him anyways and you save 4.5 to 7.5 mil next year. As to why someone would want him. He is hitting 277 against right handed pitchers. He can be someone’s platoon or 4th outfielder. At worse he is a good pitch hitter against right handed players. What it would cost them is just the reset of his pay for this year. I am sure there are more then a few teams that could find a use for that. Jim t June 13, 2014 No way he gets traded. He makes 7.5 this year and 4.5 for a buy out next year. If he is such a good hitter against RH he could PH for us. No one will assume that salary and if we are going to eat it we might as well let him PH for us Jim t June 13, 2014 He has really cooled off lately. Alan Horn June 13, 2014 No on Bailey if he keeps it up. He is not that tradeable with the contract he has. Cueto, Latos, Simon, Cingrani, Broxton and Chapman are very tradeable because of their contracts. We could look at trading one of them if it will bring us a hitter. Brad Konerman June 13, 2014 Would be great to see the Reds load up Pensacola for the 2nd half: C: Perez, Berset 1B: Mattair, Selsky 2B: Navarro 3B: Silverio, M-B SS: Lohman LF: Winker CF: Y-Rod/Silva RF: Waldrop/Duran Silverio to AAA? Chang, Greene, B. Smith, Fellhauer – to DL, AAA or Released SP: Stephenson, Lorenzon, Corcino, Lively, O’Brien (Moscot to AAA) RP: Contreras, Ca. Gonzalez, Hayes, Dyer, Walczak, Williamson, Hyde, Pinckard Norwood Nate June 13, 2014 Silva is doing everything he can to push himself into that group that needs a promotion. With it being Silva and Waldrop’s 2nd year in HIgh-A it seems safe to say they’ve done what they can at that level. Winker, SMB, and Smith are also just crushing that league. I get the organization wanting them to clinch a play-off and even the best record. But after two more games, they need to make some promotions. Shchi June 13, 2014 Ugh, two more games…but after the last two games, that’s some serious hitting stat padding available prior to the (hopefully!) pending promotions. MK June 13, 2014 I understand a catcher and outfielder will be coming to a Dayton after the All Star break next week. Whether that means someone goes up or out remains to be seen. Dragons a re getting a little outfield heavy. The Duke June 13, 2014 Hudson and Ervin to Bakersfield, Ortiz and Rosa to Dayton? Doug Gray June 13, 2014 Rosa is already in Dayton. Norwood Nate June 13, 2014 I would think Elizalde would get the bump, let Ervin prove this recent hot streak is the real deal in Dayton. David June 13, 2014 I hope Jose Ortiz is the catcher. Too many options for me to guess the OF move. Brad Konerman June 13, 2014 What about Aquino as the OF? Doug Gray June 13, 2014 I’m thinking more like Kevin Garcia, who at least last year seemed more advanced and unless something really changed, seems far more likely to be ready to jump to the Midwest League. MK June 13, 2014 I heard Ortiz and Reynosa DaveCT June 13, 2014 I think Walt’s m.o. has generally been to trade prospects for the missing pieces. And for we fans of the minors this at times stings, ie Zach Stewart, Travis Wood, etc. That said, I suspect he’d listen to offers on anyone except Stephenson, Lorenzen, and Winker if the right hitter was available. And of course we can fund the acquisition. Doug Gray June 13, 2014 The Reds should not be in the business of acquiring a half year rental this year. They simply aren’t good enough to risk something like that. Unless they go on a crazy run between now and the All-Star break where they win 75% of their games, it is not going to make sense other than to make fans feel good. Now, if they can acquire someone for the rest of the year and next year, I’m all for it. Alan Horn June 13, 2014 You can always try to negotiate to extend their contract(one or two more years in Cruz’s case) prior to the trade. Doug Gray June 13, 2014 Well if you can, then you aren’t trading for a rental. But the deal needs to be completed before the trade is made in a case like that. Norwood Nate June 13, 2014 If the Reds are within spitting distance of a playoff spot come the All Star break, I would see what Houston wants for Fowler. I know he’s been a popular subject and I know he just moved this off-season. But he’s still arb-eligible next year. So you’d have him for 1 and 1/2 years minimum. Sounds about perfect for when we’d expect Winker to come up. 1. He’d address some of our OBP deficiencies at the top of the order. 2. He’d play an outstanding defense in LF 3. He’d allow Hamilton to drop down in the order (7th or 8th) to take the pressure off him. 4. Add more speed/base running to our team. Houston is improved over last year, but not really going to be in contention. I’d bet the Reds could figure out a way to make an enticing offer without selling the farm. Jim t June 13, 2014 Norwood Nate, I would like to see Fowler in a Reds uniform but I wouldn’t bump Billy down in the line up. Don’t think its pressure that is his issue but plate discipline. He seems to be getting better every game. Billy 1 and Fowler 2. Votto 3 Frazier 4 Bruce 5 Mez 6 BP 7 and Cozart 8. DaveCT June 13, 2014 I don’t think we’d mortgage the farm for a half year rental. Or should. But we have quite a bit of right handed pitching depth, as well as outfield depth, though some like YRod or Duran would be selling low. One spare part who may become available is Ben Zobrist, who I’d love to see replace Heisey and Bernandina and Ludwick (who I know is going nowhere). Jim t June 13, 2014 I agree Doug but my opinion could change if they really close well between now and the deadline. Of course they could tank as well which means we could be sellers. If we are to use quality prospects or players as bait I would definitely be on board with getting more then a rental. I would really hate to waste this pitching staff. Hope then can close the gap. Krozley June 13, 2014 The Padres may be on the verge of a sell-off so I might ask about Seth Smith. He’s mashing right handers (horrible against lefties) and can hit anywhere in the lineup. Platoon him with Ludwick (although he doesn’t hit left-handers all that great either) and use Heisey as a late inning defensive replacement. JMO June 13, 2014 Marquez Smith needs to be in AA, what else does he have to prove? Late bloomer? Challenge him, same with Winker and SMB. JMO June 13, 2014 Fowler for Soto and Contreras I would also try and get Didi back. Soto and Holmberg? Norwood Nate June 13, 2014 Probably take a bit more. But between the amount of pitching and OF prospects we have, I think something could be worked out. Nick June 13, 2014 Fowler is a good player. No way the Astros even consider a relief pitching prospect and a prospect with poor plate discipline for one of their best players. Not sure why they would get rid of Fowler in the first place. Doug Gray June 13, 2014 He’s not a late bloomer. He has actually had decent success in Triple-A in the past. NickF June 13, 2014 Interesting how a few days ago the comments here were all about the Reds selling then after splitting a series with the Dodgers and a 5-5 homestand ending it’s all about us buying. Two games really provided some serious hope. Alan Horn June 13, 2014 Votto and Latos returning along with Bruce heating up brings hope that was not there a few days ago. This team has talent. Injuries and plain not producing are the reasons they are where they are. I feel strongly they need one more quality hitter(not a platoon guy) and it they can stay reasonably healthy, they should make a run. Like I mentioned above, we should know in 2-4 weeks whether to hold or fold. Doug Gray June 13, 2014 The problem is, the Reds don’t need to make a run. The Reds need to make a 2013 Dodgers kind of run and they simply don’t have that kind of talent. When the Dodgers went on their run they basically added two MVP caliber players to their offense. The Reds aren’t doing that. Shchi June 13, 2014 The one mitigating factor for the Reds is the large number of head-to-head games remaining with the Brew Crew. It the Reds can take care of business in those games, they would yank the Brew Crew back to the rest of the division without any assistance and then it’s a horse race. Of course the Reds still have to take care of business and haven’t been able to do so yet this season. The team is now healthy and some of the players seem to be playing with a little edge and chip on the shoulder right now, so just maybe… Jim t June 13, 2014 Doug, time will tell. Doug Gray June 13, 2014 To win 90 games this season the Reds have to play at a .608 clip, going 59-38. Only the Giants are playing at a clip that high this season. No team has done it for a season since the 2011 Phillies. I mean we can always say we will see, and we will, but the odds against it happening are about 1000-to-1 given the talent on the team. Betting on something like that is awfully poor and I really hope the front office understands that. Stock June 13, 2014 The Reds are 3 games back of the Braves and Marlins for a wild card spot. Hard to say they have no chance. Odds are a little better than 1/1000 Doug Gray June 13, 2014 I’m not making trades to try and get into a one game playoff unless I can trade next to nothing, which means you aren’t getting much in return, which won’t be a difference maker. Norwood Nate June 13, 2014 Well, I think it’s based on a few things. The health of Latos and Votto and Bruce and their return to being the caliber of players that we’re used to seeing from them. This next road trip and how we do, can we pick up a game or two? Beyond that, where are we sitting at the All-Star break. The continuance of excellent starting pitching and the improvement of the bullpen. As of now, most of those things are going in the right direction. As of now we are only 3 games back of the top WC spot. Only 2.5 games back of the Cards. Would it take a historic run to reach 90 wins? Yes. Will it be necessary to reach 90 wins to clinch a playoff spot? Right now Miami and Atlanta would need to go 56-41 to get get to 90 wins. That’s a .615 winning percentage over 97 games. Through their first 65 games they’ve only won at a .523 winning percentage. Making up 3 games with 97 left is not historic. There is hope now that we’re staring to see Bruce heat up a bit as is Votto, looking more like the Votto of old. Latos is likely to be a upgrade over Cingrani, giving us a better chance at winning every 5 games. I’m still a proponent of selling if we’re out of it. If we’re within striking distance, it’s easy to see where another consistent bat to add to Votto, Frazier, Bruce, and Mes could make a big difference. Doug Gray June 13, 2014 You are bad at math Nate. 56-41 is a .577 clip. I am also not making trades for a 1-game playoff. You either go for the division or you don’t go. Trading for a rental to play one game in the playoffs is a terrible idea. This team needs to go on a historic run to win the division. Don’t mortgage the future for the chance your 1-in-a-thousand chance hits. Norwood Nate June 13, 2014 Not so bad at math, bad at putting in the right numbers…put in 91 instead of 97 DaveCT June 13, 2014 Scoring a few runs behind our usually good starting pitching, the seeing Broxton do his thing and Aroldis choose which way he elects to play with his food, fastball slider or change. Shchi June 13, 2014 After slashing an impressive .360/.412/.685 at Pensacola before being subjected to extended (and useless) travel and bench time, it’s nice to see the Big Lutz possibly getting his feet back under him in Louisville, now slashing .190/.346/.524. He certainly needs to bring his 27% SO rate down in AAA, but he’s just arrived (just 26 PA) and is probably making adjustments to the increased hooks thrown in AAA. The 15% BB rate in limited time at AAA speaks to his increased plate discpline this season. I still think the Big Lutz has a chance to put himself into the 2015 LF competition with two solid months in AAA to prove he can hit the benders, then a September call up and a spring training invite. Doug Gray June 13, 2014 No need to ST invite, he’s on the 40-man roster. He will be there. Shchi June 13, 2014 I was talking about a personal invite so I could root on the Big Lutz during spring training. Yeah, that’s what I meant… Frank June 13, 2014 How about trading Broxton For Van Slyke. LA has a surpluss of outfielders and needs late inning relief Mustang John June 13, 2014 Stangs start arriving late tonight.Practice tomorrow and Sunday.Game on Monday Doug Gray June 13, 2014 John, we expect a full report on the roster! DaveCT June 13, 2014 So, post all star break outfields (left to right) A. Reynaldo, Rosa, Ervin, with Gelalich Hi-A. Silva, Amaral, Elizaide, with Arias (DL) AA. Winker, YRod, Duran, with Waldrop, Selsky, Smith (DL) AAA. Lutz, Bourgios, Perez, with LeMarre (DL), Fellhauer Mustang John June 13, 2014 Will do my best Doug Brad June 13, 2014 What can the Reds get for Broxton? Tigers, Braves, Dodgers, just about everyone contending needs bullpen help, who better this year than Big Broxton. The Reds cant want to keep his contract for the next two years in a non-closing role. Seems like the most likely chip they have. babull June 14, 2014 Braxton does look like a guy to move. His value to a contender or a deluded pretender may never be higher than right now. Alan Horn June 14, 2014 Same is true for Cueto. He is at the top of his game. Has been injury prone and only has one more year on his contract. His new one is expected to be huge and out of the Red’s reach. Cueto would bring back a much better return.