Cincinnati Reds claim RHP Nefi Ogando Doug Gray February 14, 2017 46 Comments The Cincinnati Reds have made yet another waiver claim. This time they picked upright handed reliever Nefi Ogando. Right hander Nefi Ogando has spent time in the Red Sox, Phillies, Marlins and Pirates organizations. He was picked up from the Pirates, who designated him for assignment last week. The 27-year-old has limited big league experience. In 2015 he threw 4.0 innings with the Phillies and in 2016 he tossed 15.2 innings with the Marlins. In limited sample sizes at the big league level we know one things: Ogando can absolutely bring the heat. He’s averaged 97 MPH with his fastball in the big leagues and has topped out at 99. Nefi Ogando throws both a two and four-seam fastball and mixes in a slider as his secondary offering. During the 2016 season he was mostly in Triple-A with the Marlins organization. While with New Orleans he posted a 3.33 ERA in 22 appearances. That was good for 24.1 innings pitched where he allowed 11 walks and had 19 strikeouts. While the peripherals weren’t great, he did get a bunch of ground balls. Between Triple-A and the Major Leagues, Ogando posted a 60%ground ball rate. The Dominican Republic native has one option year remaining. He wasn’t added to the 40-man roster until after the 2014 season and was optioned in both the 2015 and 2016 seasons, leaving him with one option remaining. Ogando likely joins a large battle for the final two spots in the Reds bullpen. To make room on the 40-man roster, the Cincinnati Reds have placed Homer Bailey on the 60-day disabled list. 46 Responses DanD February 14, 2017 Over/Under that Homer makes 12 starts. What a bad signing based upon being a 1st round pick adding 2 no-hitters. Doug Gray February 14, 2017 The signing was based on him being one of the twenty best pitchers alive the two years prior to extending him. Hingle McCringleberry February 14, 2017 He wasn’t even in that category Doug. Doug Gray February 14, 2017 I’ll make the case in about an hour. Not at the computer right now, but I’ve shown it before. The numbers tell a decent story. DanD February 14, 2017 I don’t disagree with you much but to get the contract he got based on potential and not history is a bad decision. Tired of Bob C. making decisions with his heart and not his head. Did he earn all of his money this way as well. Homer has 60 or so wins in 10 seasons with a ERA of 4.24. Cueto should have received this contract. The owner also kept Chapman b/c of all star game and for the fans and we got taken on that trade as well. The other trades I have no problem with. Notice the media did not crucify the Yankees once Chapman was in NY but they would have with the Reds if we would have kept him until July 31st last year. Bailey has the Reds handcuffed, Votto is earning his money! Doug Gray February 14, 2017 Bailey was worth $48M the two years before signing his extension….. Greenfield Red February 14, 2017 Come on Dan. All contracts are about potential. History is only a guide. The Reds gambled that HB’s best days were ahead of him and that JC’s price and mechanics were an issue they didn’t want to deal with. It hasn’t worked out that way, but anybody who saw it clearly without any doubt is using hindsight as a guide. The Reds made a decision that had to be made with the best available information at the time. 20/20 hindsight is a great thing. Doug Gray February 14, 2017 OK, so it was more than an hour, but here we go. The two seasons directly prior to Bailey signing his extension here’s where he ranked in all of Major League Baseball: Innings: 12th with 417. WAR: 23rd (Fangraphs version) Strikeouts: 22nd Strikeout to walk ratio: 23rd ERA: 32nd (but this isn’t figuring in that he pitches in GABP) He was a guy who was eating innings better than almost everyone in baseball and his peripherals were still quite good. We can argue a bit about the ERA because of the park factors, but he was pretty much a top 20 pitcher for those two seasons. Back end of that Top 20, for sure, but when you account for him eating those innings, Top 20. And, let’s be sure to note here as well, that in 2012-2013, according to Fangraphs Free Agent dollar values, Homer Bailey was worth $48M between those two seasons (and $30.4M in 2013). What’s happened since has not worked out. But the numbers back up the contract, mostly. I think they absolutely paid top dollar for him – and it left almost no wiggle room for them to come out ahead of the deal – but I continue to believe that he got market value. Stock February 14, 2017 I disagree with you. You would be hard pressed to come up with a logical argument that makes Bailey at top 20 SP. Doug Gray February 14, 2017 I provided the numbers. How is it illogical to argue it? What numbers are so far off that it’s an illogical argument? Patrick February 15, 2017 Bailey ERA was questionable and GABP is a neutral park. From watching him he was not great but just good. He feasted on three bad teams Cubs/Pirates/Astros that made his numbers look better than he is. I personally always thought Cueto was better and we should have tried to sign him Doug Gray February 15, 2017 Cueto was better. No one has ever really tried to argue that have they? But the idea that Bailey was just able to feast on bad teams made his numbers look better is a stretch. Every pitcher gets to face bad teams. Removing those three teams you mentioned, Bailey still posted a 3.83 ERA in those two seasons with 70 walks and 256 strikeouts. He was slightly worse, as you would expect everyone to be. GABP isn’t neutral, though – or at least wasn’t in the timeframe I’m referencing. In 2012 it was the 8th highest run scoring environment in baseball. It boosted runs scored by 11%. In 2013 it was neutral. So, between those two seasons, it boosted runs by 5.5%. That’s 0.20 runs off of his ERA. So, neutralizing it for that, we’re talking about a neutralized 3.38 ERA over 417 innings and we’re sitting here talking about how he stinks (not you, but some people seem to really be trying to go down that road). Billy February 14, 2017 Doug, when Bailey is placed on the 60-day, is he eligible to return 60 days from the day he’s placed on it or 60 days from the start of the season in this case? Doug Gray February 14, 2017 I believe it’s from today. Steve February 14, 2017 It’s 60 days from the start of the season. So, early June. Players can be placed on the 60 day DL from today to clear a roster spot but it actually goes into effect the first day of the season. Bill February 14, 2017 I found this link (it’s on the internet, so it must be true right). Para. 10 states that players placed on the 60-day DL during Spring Training cannot be reinstated prior to day 61 of the ML season. This would be June 1, which is the day Homer Bailey said he was hoping to return. http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3537 Doug Gray February 14, 2017 Good job. Maybe it’s the 15-day dl that you can use at the end if the spring retro to the last day they appeared. Bill February 14, 2017 Exactly. A player can be on the 10-day DL (changed from 15 in the latest CBA) up to 6 days prior to the season according to the link above. While on the DL, they are not allowed to play in ML spring training games, but can play in the minor league games. Greenfield Red February 14, 2017 With all these pitchers coming on board, I starting to think the Reds might be preparing for a trade. I am not against them trading one of their top pitchers if they get a huge return. RFM February 14, 2017 You know, these two guys from the Pirates aren’t particularly great waiver pickups, they’re just the best available guys on the waiver wire while 40 man roster spots are open, one from moving Phillips, another from DL-ing Bailey. They’re more likely roster filler who will soon be DFA’d and, if they clear waivers, outrighted to AAA… than signs of upcoming trades. Teams claim guys and try to slip them through waivers all the time, that’s why guys like David Rollins and Juan Graterol have floated all round MLB this winter. These two guys seemingly represent the #39 and 40 guys on the roster – and the first candidates to be DFA’d when another spot is needed – rather than indicators of an upcoming trade. ohiojim February 14, 2017 Or maybe they are going to take my long time advice and switch Lorenzen back to a position player (just joking; I realize that ship sailed many tides ago ;-) RFM February 15, 2017 Oh no, not that, don’t torture me again! At least discussion has improved into “move him back into the rotation because he’s too good for the bullpen!” from “move the guy with the 98mph fastball to the outfield!”. DanD February 14, 2017 60-54 4.24 era in 10 seasons….WOW, Bailey worth the money? Take away the no hitters and he has 172 starts, 4 complete games and 2 shut outs. What a waste of money. Doug Gray February 14, 2017 I don’t know why people always bring up his career. When people talk about Edwin, do they bring up his career or what he’s done recently? What he did when he was 24 means nothing. Just like what Bailey did when he was 22 meant nothing when he signed his deal. RFM February 14, 2017 Because it’s easier to make Bailey look bad by bringing up his early struggles. Mjc February 14, 2017 Great point,but still a bad contract I remember it being ridiculed. earmbrister February 15, 2017 It’s only a bad contract because he got hurt. RFM February 15, 2017 It would be a debatable contract if he were healthy – does a ~3.60 ERA justify $20m a year? – not a great contract but debatable – but a bad contract because he’s not healthy. Doug Gray February 15, 2017 If it’s coming with 200+ innings every year – I’d say that yes, that’s a $20M a year guy in todays game. HavaKlu February 15, 2017 The real mistake was giving him a 6 year deal. Even though injuries cannot often be predicted, he was on the DL, 3 separate times for shoulder problems in 2011 and ’12. So in my opinion a 6 year deal was very risky at the time and we are suffering the consequences. Doug Gray February 15, 2017 Any deal longer than two years on any pitcher is risky. But, someone is going to give good pitchers 5-7 year deals, so you have to do that as well if you want to keep them around. It’s unfortunate, but just how it goes. I’m still waiting for a team to try something crazy, like offer guys something like $35-40M for one year, instead of offering them $22M a year for six. Norwood Nate February 14, 2017 Reds add another pitcher, SSDD. 26 of the 41 spots on the roster are pitchers. That seems high. Steve February 14, 2017 Back to a full 40 man roster. Either the Reds plan to carry only 12 position players to start the season or someone will be DFA’d or traded. Another option would be to send Turner back to clear a spot. Looking at the 40 man roster, the backups currently would be Barnhart, Turner, Herrera and Alcantara. Aquino starts in AA and Ervin and Winker at AAA. 12P/13PP or 13P/12PP. I can see both scenarios happening. It’ll all play out in ST. Play Ball! RFM February 14, 2017 Assuming health, I suspect they’ll attempt to clear (at least) one of the new Pirates pitchers through waivers, outright him off the 40 man roster to AAA, and give Desmond Jennings a bench spot, while Dilson Herrera plays everyday at 2b in Louisville. When Cozart is traded Herrera takes his place on the 25 man roster. Steve February 14, 2017 Sounds like a plan ,but not sure Jennings will be the one. Will be a real battle with Iribarren, Kivlehan, Renda and possibly Dixon. Actually, think it’s down to Jennings, Iribarren and Kivlehan this ST. Would rather see Renda and Dixon getting regular PT in Louisville than being the last player off the bench. earmbrister February 15, 2017 I don’t see Herrara sitting on the bench in MLB. He’ll start in AAA unless Cozart is moved before the season starts. The bench is likely to be: Barnhart Turner Alcantara (Middle IF, CF) Walters (Corner IF, Corner OF) Jennings (OF) Those players, along with the position flex offered by Peraza and Duvall, will provide very good coverage and afford the luxury of carrying 3 catchers. earmbrister February 15, 2017 Walters probably should be labeled as (everywhere but CF and C) His versatility should prove to be very valuable. Plus he provides some power off the bench. RFM February 15, 2017 I mostly agree with you, except about Walters, he didn’t get an (official) invitation to camp. He’s in minor league camp. He’s not making the team. He’s gotten a bunch of chances and has shown that he can’t hit, which further hurts his case. But, I agree that versatility helps. That’s why I think 32 Hernan Iribarren will make it, along with Alcantara and Jennings. Iribarren is the kinda guy they can release the moment someone better emerges. McLean February 14, 2017 I would look into trying to bring in Doug Fister on a Minor League Deal, with invitation to ST…May be the best he can get and it sure wouldn’t hurt to have him around, with a possible stint at AAA. Just a thought… Bill February 14, 2017 I agree Both Ogando and Bonilla are #39 and #40 on the 40-man roster right now, but you can see both potentially contributing this year. There’s really no “down-side” to these acquisitions. I’m glad to see the front office using to 40-man roster room to bring as much talent in as possible. RFM February 14, 2017 Yeah, definitely no downside, and I’m glad the front office is being proactive. But many more waiver claims end in efforts to outright them to the minors than turn into Alfredo Simon (the successful reliever claimed off waivers) or Dan Straily. reaganspad February 14, 2017 Yes but we have fight in the GM’s office to improve the roster, the likes we have not seen since wayne krivsky AlphaZero February 14, 2017 I fully expect Ogando to be DFAed in the near future as soon as something slightly more interesting hits the wire or once Jennings gets added to the roster coming out of ST. Maybe he’ll make it through waivers and maybe not. No big loss either way, but it’s always a good idea to pick up a big arm to sneak through waivers when most rosters are full. Hoyce February 14, 2017 Another few injuries will make this argument moot. Patrick February 15, 2017 Pitchers tend to get injuries in the spring because they are not use to going all out. Things start to show up when starting to throw like Bailey and Travieso. RFM February 15, 2017 I doubt the Reds are finished with waiver claims, Straily and Simon were claimed as late spring cuts after they failed to make their team’s 25 man rosters. I think guys like that will be calling for Ogando and Bonilla’s roster spots, even if other Reds do get put on the 60 day DL. The Reds retain #2 waiver priority through April, at least.