Cincinnati Reds Minor League Game Review – 8/12/17 Doug Gray August 13, 2017 33 Comments If you aren’t signed up to support the site through Patreon yet, you can do that today and start getting emails each morning with notes and updates from each game (and other perks). Louisville lost 7-3. Box Score Darnell Sweeney went 1-3 with a walk, double and 2 runs. Phillip Ervin went 2-4 with a double and 2 RBI. Tyler Goeddel went 0-2 with 2 walks and a run. Ismael Guillon allowed a run in 2.1 innings with 3 walks and 4 strikeouts. Barrett Astin threw a perfect inning with a strikeout. Nick Routt threw a perfect inning with a strikeout. Jimmy Herget threw a shutout inning with a strikeout. Pensacola lost 8-7. Box Score Gabriel Guerrero went 1-4 with a home run (5) and 3 RBI. Nick Senzel went 2-4 with a run. Josh VanMeter went 1-4 with a home run (5), steal (14) and 2 RBI. Aristides Aquino went 1-4 with a solo home run (13). Brian O’Grady went 1-4 with a solo home run (8). Tanner Rainey threw a perfect inning with 3 strikeouts. Daytona lost 4-1. Box Score Blake Butler went 1-3. Daniel Sweet went 1-3 with a walk and a run. Brantley Bell went 3-4. Garrett Boulware went 1-3 with an RBI. Ty Boyles threw a run in 6.0 innings with 5 strikeouts. Joel Bender threw 1.2 shutout innings with 3 strikeouts. Dayton lost 12-4. Box Score Randy Ventura went 2-5 with a run. Jose Siri went 1-4 with a triple, steal (36), run and an RBI. Taylor Sparks went 1-4 with a double, walk, run and an RBI. Bruce Yari went 1-3 with a walk, double and an RBI. John Sansone went 1-3 with a walk. Malik Collymore went 0-2 with 2 walks. Carlos Rivero went 0-2 with 2 walks and a run. Billings lost 15-6. Box Score Miles Gordon went 1-3 with a steal. Stuart Fairchild went 1-3 with a run. Andy Sugilio went 2-3 with a double and a run. Nadir Ljatifi went 1-2. Alejo Lopez went 2-4 with a triple, walk, run and an RBI. Morgan Lofstrom went 2-4 with a walk and 2 RBI. Urwin Juaquin went 1-4 with a run. Connor Bennett threw 1.1 shutout innings with a walk and 2 strikeouts. AZL Reds lost 1-0. Box Score Miguel Hernandez went 1-4. Justin Bellinger went 1-3 with a walk.. Jared Solomon allowed a run in 5.1 innings with 5 strikeouts. Edward Escoboza threw 2.2 shutout innings with 6 strikeouts. 8/13 Game Preview Team 1st half 2nd half Time (EST) Probable Box Score Listen Live Watch Live Louisville 46-72 N/A 1:05pm Garrett Here Here Here Pensacola 40-30 21-27 5:05pm Ross Here Here Here Daytona 33-32 11-38 5:35pm TBA Here Here N/A Dayton 41-29 14-34 2:05pm Jordan Here Here Here Billings 18-19 4-6 6:00pm Naughton Here Here N/A AZL Reds 16-22 N/A 10:00pm TBA Here N/A N/A Top 25 Prospects Daily Rundown Rank Player Level Performance 1 Nick Senzel AA 2-4, run. 2 Luis Castillo MLB DNP 3 Hunter Greene BIL DNP 4 Sal Romano MLB DNP 5 Jesse Winker MLB 0-1, K. Pinch hitter. 6 Vladimir Gutierrez A+ DNP 7 Tyler Mahle AAA DNP 8 Taylor Trammell A 0-4, K. 9 Tyler Stephenson DL DNP 10 Tony Santillan A 3.1IP, 10H, 8ER, 2BB, 2K. 11 Shed Long AA/DL DNP 12 Jeter Downs BIL DNP 13 Stuart Fairchild BIL 1-3, run, K. 14 Jose Siri A 1-4, 3B, steal, run, RBI, 2K. 15 Aristides Aquino AA 1-4, HR. 16 Jose Garcia DSL DNP 17 T.J. Friedl A+ 0-0, BB. Left game with a wrist injury. 18 Gavin LaValley AA 1-4, K. 19 Jimmy Herget AAA 1IP, 1H, 0ER, 0BB, 1K. 20 Zack Weiss AA DNP 21 Ariel Hernandez AAA DNP 22 Jackson Stephens AAA DNP 23 Phillip Ervin AAA 2-4, 2B, RBI. 24 Alfredo Rodriguez A+ 0-4. 25 Alex Blandino AAA 0-3, K. 33 Responses Simon Cowell August 13, 2017 I have a suggestion for you Doug for what it is worth. I would suggest showing the Pitcher stats for all the starting pitchers in the games notes regardless if they had a good game or not. We can all cry together. As Howard Cowsell used to say, “In the joy of victory or in the agony of defeat.” One thing is certain…. All Reds fans are joined at the hip in the agony of defeat since 1990. So we might as well embrace the suffering together as a type of “band of brothers” if you will marc August 13, 2017 He provides a link to the box scores. MK August 13, 2017 I am sure Howard Cosell would have been flattered by the bovine reference. Probably choked or mooed on his cigar, or at least turned over. Simon Cowell August 13, 2017 Luke Farrell’s Bats Debut was one to forget. goodness. Greenfield Red August 13, 2017 Agreed, but it’s not as bad as a certain ML pitcher the other night. Does anyone know the answer to 5 X infinity? Greenfield Red August 13, 2017 As someone mentioned yesterday, the Reds system is having a poor year considering they are supposed to have so much talent. Only Pensacola and the DSL Reds are above .500. A couple of teams are way below .500. I think the Reds have some really good prospects in the system. I just think they don’t have enough of them. Cguy August 13, 2017 This August the Reds are 7W & 5L. But their minor league teams are a paltry 15W & 48 L. So the winning % for the organization this month is .293. Not enough of them indeed. Wes August 13, 2017 I think they have enough of them- they just aren’t performing/developing Cguy August 13, 2017 Well that’s the point. If they aren’t developing/performing, they have too many- losers. Norwood Nate August 13, 2017 I noticed that it’s another day and all 6 Reds farm teams lose again. That seems to happen with more frequency this year than I can recall in year’s past. In general, I believe the farm system has improved, so it’s strange that it feels like it’s losing more. So I did some digging in the full season leagues to see what’s contributing to the losing (league average stats taken from RLN’s “This Week on the Farm” series). According to DG’s rankings the Reds have the following top 25 at each level: AAA – 6 Mahle, Herget, Hernandez, Stephens, Ervin and Blandino. Two starters, two relievers, and two position players. 5 of those 6 players reside in the bottom 6 players in the top 25. With two starters that leaves a maximum of 5 prospects that can contribute on any given night, and only a potential 4 prospects can contribute 60% of the time. With two also being relievers, their impact is limited by the amount of innings they contribute. The Bats have 5 healthy players above league average OPS in Blandino, Sweeney, Irribarren, Dixon, and Elizalde. The latter three are barely above league average. Currently the starting rotation has only Reed and Mahle with above league average ERAs, and Reed leads the team in walks. Herget, Hernandez, Chacin, and Bonilla have done well out of the bullpen. AA – 5 Senzel, Long (DL), Aquino, LaValley, and Weiss. Currently 3 position players and 1 reliever. Aquino has struggled to hit on the year and LaValley is in the midst of a slump. Weiss has limited impact on wins/losses by being a reliever. 3 of 4 healthy prospects rank in the 15-25 range. The Wahoos currently only have two players with an OPS better than league average (Senzel and VanMeter) with Nieto (41 games) right about league average. The pitching has been pretty decent with the Wahoos with 8 pitchers at or above league average ERA. Ross, Lopez, McGuire, and Reyes have all been better than the league this year with Rainey, Gonzales, Stock, and Broussard all doing well out of the pen. The main issue I see here is that there’s virtually no consistent offense outside of two guys and a lot of the pitching has been promoted in the 2nd half (Hernandez, Herget, Mahle, Castillo, Guillon). A+ – 3 Gutierrez, Friedl, Rodriguez. Two position players and a starter. Friedl left last night’s game with a wrist injury and he wasn’t exactly thriving after the promotion anyway. Rodriguez hasn’t hit all year and Gutierrez only has an effect on the days he pitches. This is the most talent starved team in the Reds minor leagues, especially after promotions to Senzel, Long, LaValley, Weiss, Lopez, Reyes, and Rainey. Excluding guys with less than 10 ABs, the Tortugas have two players sporting a better than league average OPS with Gonzalez and Sweet (and Sweet’s just barely above). They’ve lost 5 guys with better than average OPS to promotion (the 3 mentioned above plus Tromp and O’Grady). Rodriguez is currently 110 points below league average OPS. Currently only reliever Joel Bender and recently returned starter Strahan are at/below league average ERA. Reliever Ryan Hendrix is pretty close as well. A – 4 Trammell, Santillan, Siri, and Stephenson (DL). Two healthy position players and a starter. All four of these guys are in the top 14 Reds prospects, the highest concentration of top prospects in the system. The Dragons have 5 healthy players above league average OPS in Siri, Trammell, Yari, Sansone, and Collymore (though the last two are doing it with BA under .220). On the pitching side, Santillan and Moss have bested league average ERA from the pitching side as starters while Adams, Fossas, and Machorro have done so from the bullpen. So there seems to be a number of things contributing. The main thing is that the “supporting cast” to the prospects simply have not show up in most cases. A couple of guys have been promoted to MLB in the upper minors that takes from the talent level of those who were performing well (Castillo, Romano, Winker), and a couple guys haven’t produced as well after a promotion (Long, LaValley, Friedl). A couple of guys haven’t done much all year (Aquino, Rodriguez) while others have been inconsistent or had a bad stretch weigh down their overall numbers (Gutierrez, Ervin, Stephens). Greenfield Red August 13, 2017 Wow Nate. You put a lot in to this. It appears to me that a lot of the top 25 simply aren’t performing this year. Aquino leads the list to me. I do think that if the young pitching in the majors would figure things out, the system would turn around pretty quickly once the I-71 shuttle became less than a daily event. MK August 13, 2017 Don’t think the Reds do a very good job signing or drafting prospects from 25th round on. As I watch the opponents of the Dragons the other teams get solid production from guys selected in the 30th round on up. The Reds do a pretty good job of getting their guys scouted and selected in the first ten rounds but not making a better effort after that really effects the depth and competiveness of the minor league system. The organization is littered with with other teams higher round picks that have washed out with other organizations. James K August 13, 2017 Right. And of the 23 players drafted this year, a fair number have not played at all or have played very little. Hal August 13, 2017 W/L records in minor leagues, really?!? By that measure we need to get on the phone with the White Sox this winter. The Reds farm system overall is 23 games better than the White Sox. Surely they would be willing to swap out their entire farm system and players for ours. Greenfield Red August 13, 2017 Hey Hal. I know the White Sox have a robust top of the farm bunch of players. I haven’t heard they have depth the Red supposedly have. I know the Reds have had a ton of injuries and they have raided Louisville on a daily basis for arms that could literally pitch that night to give their worn out bull pen a break. I suppose poop rolls downhill as they say and Louisville has raided from lower in the system, but claims of depth don’t hold much water when nearly the entire farm is losing so much. The Reds and Louisville are 50 games under .500 combined. That is a hard pill to swallow… considering WJ’s insistence on acquiring near major league ready talent! Doug Gray August 13, 2017 Here’s the thing about “depth”…. If you’ve got 30 legit prospects, your farm system is very deep. Those 30 players make up about 15% of the players in the US side of your system. You can be incredibly deep with real prospects, and the Reds are, and it is still just a small fraction of the amount of players you have. Wes August 13, 2017 Well said Doug. So if you can’t teach Alfrod how to hit- then why spend the estimated 10 mil you sworn to worn him? And so on and so on….reds got the talent- now develop it Hal August 13, 2017 Greenfield – that is a very valid point about Uncle Walt. SteveO August 13, 2017 Reds should take a flyer on Cesar Puello, recently DFAd by the Angels. Looks like pretty good combo of speed and power. SteveO August 13, 2017 Get rid of Adam Brett Walker and replace him with Puello icehole3 August 13, 2017 Did the Reds shut down Hunter Greene? Doug Gray August 13, 2017 No. MK August 13, 2017 Must be too stressful to get four at bats so he can only do it every other day. Doug Gray August 13, 2017 Or, you know, they need to get a lot of guys at-bats. MK August 13, 2017 There was a lot of discussion about the positive or negative benefits of starting the season with Reed and Stephenson in the bullpen. In the recent Baseball America, Tracy Ringolsby wrote an article about the emergence of Jon Gray as a Rockies starter titled “These Things Take Time”, In this he listed some starters who first pitched in bullpen including Adam Wainright(63 relief appearances), Zack Grienke(41), Roy Halliday(25), Max Scherzer (9) and Pedro Martinez (two seasons in Dodgers pen). So maybe it is not such a bad thing if only Dusty Price had given the young guys some regular work. Doug Gray August 13, 2017 It’s generally a bad idea, especially for guys who are in need of innings to continue to develop rather than guys that are ready to pitch in the big leagues but just don’t have a rotation spot open. Hingle McCringleberry August 13, 2017 I wonder if the reds would draft the 2013 draft different? Doug Gray August 13, 2017 Almost every team would draft differently four years down the road if they could. In every sport. Hingle McCringleberry August 13, 2017 I wonder if the reds would draft the 2013 draft different? Hingle McCringleberry August 13, 2017 Did you blacklist me Doug? Doug Gray August 13, 2017 Huh? Hingle McCringleberry August 14, 2017 Can’t comment with regular email DaveCT August 13, 2017 If I’d been informed Senzel would be hitting .349 in AA on August 13th, with 39 doubles and 12 home runs between his two stops, I’d have asked to smoke some too.